Chapter 69: The Winter of Their Discontent (1 to 31 December 1939)
[Ed: I have found myself in a period between event and service, back home (from interstate) and seeking distraction, so I have done another update. I find it good therapy. Next one not for a week or two, in all likelihood.]
(1:53min)
News from France
This bulletin is full of cheery and impressive news from the Western Front – but our spies report it all seems to be propaganda for public consumption. There is no evidence of any offensive action at all. German forces have begun massing along the French border, including a number of panzer divisions. The main
Maginot Line looks to be reasonably well held, but there are some worrying gaps to its north-west, around
Sedan and the nearer border with Belgium. Perhaps they are relying on the Belgians’ strong border defences to hold the Germans back – they surely can’t be relying on neutrality as a barrier, as we’ve seen what the German’s think of that!
There also seem to be quite a few forces ranged along the Belgian border further west towards the coast, perhaps ready to rush in if Belgium is invaded. Again, despite propaganda to the contrary, there is no evidence yet of any BEF having deployed to France.
1 Dec 39
The month begins with a report to the Cabinet on the major human and physical strategic resources of the Glorious Union. It will be used to inform and confirm strategic choices regarding the defence of key centres. There is still a strong ‘forward defence’ lobby, who would like to be able to support Romania in any war with Germany and to safeguard major resources in the Balkans. That lobby has already succeeded previously in convincing Cabinet to defend
Athina and southern Greece behind the
Iskandar Line.
The first graphic (above) illustrates the “Big Five”. These cities are by far and away the largest centres of manpower and leadership in the UGNR. What really stands out is the value of
Beograd and
Sofiya. They are both also significant sources of the major industrial resources (other than oil), which are examined further below. Losing one or both of these cities would be a major blow. The debate is over whether trying to hold them and risking succumbing to the Wehrmacht in a blitzkrieg campaign would outweigh the benefit. The doubters are still in the ascendancy.
The second table summarises the major sources of industrial materials. Key conclusions:
- Turkey only has access to two Oil sources of its own at present, with the only one of any significance being the huge oilfields of Ahvaz in the former Iran. Clearly, these must be held. The garrison there will require reconstitution and reinforcement in case of any sneak attack by sea.
- The major sources of Rare Materials are more dispersed. Four of the top ten sources (Beograd, Pristina, Sofiya and Plovdiv) are in the unprotected zone in the Balkans.
- Most of the primary Metal sources are also exposed in the Balkans.
- More of the Energy sources are behind Turkey’s established defensive lines, but the two largest - in Beograd and Sofiya - are not.
The immediate assessments are that:
- While Beograd is a very major prize, it is too far forward and exposed for Turkey to be able to defend successfully any time in the foreseeable future, especially assuming an Italo-German-Hungarian united front against the former Yugoslavia.
- Sofiya, however, is closer and more defendable, with favourable terrain. It would also leave open the possibility of maintaining a corridor of communications with Romania, for as long as our ally might survive all-out war with Germany.
- While no fortifications will be constructed in the vicinity of Sofiya for now, the General Staff will consider where a possible forward defensive line might be deployed in the future, which would aim to hold out for as long as possible, then fall back as necessary to the main Calistar Line to avoid destruction.
- As yet, Turkish force levels aren’t considered strong enough to be able to fight that campaign and guarantee being able to hold the main defensive lines while the forces involved recover and entrench. More mobile forces would be useful for those purposes: they would have a chance of retreating in time, and could cover the retreat of slower infantry forces.
- Another significant problem would be exposure to Axis air forces: if they devoted significant air strength to the effort, Turkish forces could be very badly exposed and would be without the static AA defences of the Calistar and Iskandar Lines.
- The final conclusion is that resource stockpiles need to be kept healthy, as a pressed Soviet Union may not be able to top up deficiencies through the favourable “Comintern free trade” provisions.
In diplomatic reporting, Aras advises Finland has accepted an offer of military access from Sweden. Not much maybe, but the other Scandinavian countries seem to be offering a little moral support, at least.
News Report: Leningrad, USSR. The Soviet Union creates the Finnish Democratic Republic, a puppet state to operate in Soviet-occupied parts of Finland. It doesn’t have any customers yet [an OTL, non-game event].
3 Dec 39
An alignment check is done: distance from the Comintern stands at
69.41. This will be checked again at the beginning of next month.
News Report: Geneva, Switzerland. Finland appeals to the League of Nations for intervention in the Winter War.
6 Dec 39
The first real news through from the Winter War between Finland and the Soviet Union is not reassuring. In the far north, Finland has taken the three border provinces of
Rybachi, Zapadnaya Litsa and
Khutoyarvi from the Soviets and seems to be advancing on the key northern port
Murmansk.
7 Dec 39
Back in the far warmer south of Greece, HQ 3 Corps now has its Corps Troops attached in
Athina. For the present, one of the GAR brigades has replaced the MIL brigade that will eventually be used to round it out: these will be swapped when the next MIL brigade is completed, allowing the force holding the port
Kalamata in the south of the Peloponnese to be held with 2 x GAR. It also now has its full complement of five divisions attached – three in
Athina, two in
Patra.
8 Dec 39
We also hear that the Soviet province of
Vidlica, on the northern shore of
Lake Ladoga, has been taken by the Finns.
Sestroretsk has fallen too, placing the Finns next to
Leningrad. No-one is panicking yet, but there is quite a bit of unease at the Turkish Supreme Command HQ. Field Marshal Calistar goes off for a careful inspection of the fortified line named after him, to ensure everything is in order.
News Report: Washington DC, US. The Roosevelt administration sends Britain a diplomatic note protesting the British policy of seizing German goods on neutral ships.
9 Dec 39
Something we haven’t seen for a while: British Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin seeks to influence the Turkish Government towards the Allies. Perhaps they have spotted an opening given the Soviets’ lack of progress in Finland. However, previous British efforts have been half-hearted and short-lived. Aras is more worried about a resumption of Axis influence.
10 Dec 39
Nationalist guerillas on Crete stage an uprising in the early hours of the morning, seizing
Rethymno. A naval task force carrying Karabekir’s veteran 3 Inf Div sets sail to deal with this annoyance before it can spread.
News Report: Stockholm, Sweden. The 1939 Nobel Prizes were awarded in Stockholm. The recipients were Ernest Lawrence of the United States for Physics, Adolf Butenandt (Germany) and Leopold Ružička (Switzerland) for Chemistry, Gerhard Domagk (Germany) for Physiology or Medicine and Frans Eemil Sillanpää of Finland for Literature. The Peace Prize was not awarded. Nazi Germany forced Butenandt and Domagk to refuse their awards. Lawrence did not travel to Europe because of the war.
Yes, probably not a good year for awarding the Nobel Peace Prize, alas!
11 Dec 39
Another important technical advance in infantry weaponry is made. The next objective is in the very important
Small Arms line, seeking Level 4 (1940 pattern) for the critical soft attack bonus.
And only a day after the uprising began (after a very short steaming time), 3 Inf Div commences landing at
Rethymno – the guerrillas melt away without offering a fight, within four hours. However, having secured the province, it will take another 3-4 weeks for the troops to make it to the port of
Irakleio, where the fleet will be waiting to take them back to
Istanbul.
News Report: Geneva, Switzerland. The League of Nations sends the Soviet Union a telegram calling for a cessation of hostilities with Finland and to submit the dispute with Finland to mediation by the League.
13 Dec 39
Kaya reports another spy has been discovered – this time from Afghanistan! He is not taken alive, so no “sport” for Kelebek this time. Ögel advises spy strength in France is now back up to 9. Reports are received that the Finns have taken the northern Soviet province of
Polyarny, which now puts them next to
Murmansk. We are expecting a fortnightly update from GRU Agent SkitalecS3 in a day or two, so we may get a clearer idea of troop dispositions and why the Soviets, having declared war and invaded, have been losing ground ever since!
That evening, there is more unwelcome news. This time, it’s not the Japanese but the Germans themselves seeking to influence us, with the British still plying their trade as well. Kaya vows to get rid of them as quickly as possible – we can only hope they don’t keep it up for three months, like when the Japanese made themselves right at home in the salons of Istanbul earlier this year!
14 Dec 39
News Report: Geneva, Switzerland. The Soviet Union is expelled from the League of Nations after it is declared the aggressor in the war with Finland. Of the main powers on the world stage, Britain and France are now the only ones left in the League, since Germany, Italy and Japan had already quit and the United States never joined.
A prescient cartoon from Punch magazine, July 28 1920, satirising the perceived weakness of the League. Caption: Moral Suasion. The Rabbit: “My offensive equipment being practically nil, it remains for me to fascinate him with the power of my eye.”
15 Dec 39
Winter War – First Update
SkitalecS3 of the GRU passes over the (heavily edited) report of the first two weeks of the Soviet Winter Campaign against the Finns. Even so, they are not releasing any of
these details in public. It makes for uncomfortable reading. As noted earlier, the Soviet province of
Sestroretsk was taken by the Finns some days ago, and is now being used to support a substantial attack on
Osinovets. Things were meant to be going the
other way – the Soviets are obviously poorly prepared and suffering the effects of the recent Purges.
On the other fronts, no battles are currently in progress:
- On the front that extends between Lakes Ladoga and Onega, massive Soviet forces are moving around, but not yet doing very much. Some of them appear to be having supply problems.
- In the north, a couple of Finnish divisions are involved in the drive towards Murmansk, but a Soviet tank division is moving to reinforce.
- In the centre, the Soviets seem to have superior numbers, and what looks to be a full corps moving north-west by rail.
- There is no explanation of Soviet plans or objectives provided, just dispositions. We will see what they have achieved in another two weeks.
Chief of Staff Örlungat advises Cabinet that the current upgrade of light artillery for 51 brigades is costing
5.77 IC of the total
78 available. Manpower rests at
60 and officer strength at
105%. All the convoys have been delivered, so there is now a healthy surplus (21 transports) available should there be any new trade deals struck – or to make good some future losses in war.
(2:46min)
Sympathy for Finland
The West is full of sympathy for Finland and condemnation for the Soviets. But the hearts of the Glorious Union must be made of iron as we support the efforts of our Soviet would-be allies to prosecute their very reasonable claims on their upstart neighbour.
News Report: Atlanta, US. The epic historical romance film Gone With the Wind starring Vivien Leigh, Clark Gable, Leslie Howard and Olivia de Havilland premiers at Loew's Grand Theatre in Atlanta, Georgia.
(0:04min)
Don’t give a damn?
News Report: Invention. Commercial manufacture of nylon yarn is commenced by DuPont in the US. Nylon is a generic designation for a family of synthetic polymers, based on aliphatic or semi-aromatic polyamides. Nylon is a thermoplastic silky material that can be melt-processed into fibres, films or shapes. Nylon is the first commercially successful synthetic thermoplastic polymer. DuPont began its research project in 1930. Nylon was first used commercially in a nylon-bristled toothbrush in 1938, followed more famously in women's stockings or "nylons" which were shown at the 1939 New York World's Fair and first sold commercially in 1940. During World War II [the Second Great War or GW2 in this time line], almost all nylon production will be diverted to the military for use in parachutes and parachute cord. It is anticipated that wartime uses of nylon and other plastics will greatly increase the market for the new materials.
The first example of nylon (nylon 6,6) was produced using diamines on February 28, 1935, by Wallace Carothers at DuPont's research facility at the DuPont Experimental Station. In response to Carothers' work, Paul Schlack at IG Farben developed nylon 6, a different formulation based on caprolactam, on January 29, 1938.
18 Dec 30
News Report: Berlin, Germany. Adolf Hitler sends Joseph Stalin a telegram on his sixtieth birthday wishing him “good health and a happy future for the peoples of the friendly Soviet Union.”
Foreign Minister Aras, on hearing about this, is sure ‘Uncle Joe’ would have had the telegram thoroughly tested by the Soviet Academy of Sciences for sincerity - and would have found none!
20 Dec 30
No provinces have changed hands for a few days in the Winter War, but Norway has now offered and Finland accepted military access.
21 Dec 30
Aras reports British influence has ceased exactly 12 days after it began. We will be able to see what effect (along with the parallel German influence) it may have had on alignment early next month, though it shouldn't be
too significant.
23 Dec 30
Spy strength in France is now back up to
10 – once a replacement is available, active operations will resume there, with more technology targeted.
25 Dec 39
A somber Christmas Day is celebrated in Europe. Those not already at war fear its approach. In Finland, it has of course already arrived, with the ‘heathen’ Soviets launching a Christmas Day air raid for good measure!
(1:07min)
Christmas in Finland
26 Dec 30
German influence ends 13 days after it commenced – which all agree is a relief. Marathon spells are hopefully now a thing of the past.
27 Dec 39
News Report: Ankara, Turkey. The 7.8 Mw Erzincan earthquake shakes eastern Turkey with a maximum Mercalli intensity of XII (Extreme). More than 32,000 people are killed and about 100,000 were injured. The Government declares a state of emergency in the affected zone and sends the military in to assist with rescue efforts. The first stage of the earthquake killed about 8,000 people. The next day, it was reported that the death toll had risen to 20,000. An emergency rescue operation began. By January 5, almost 33,000 had died due to the earthquakes and to blizzard conditions, followed by heavy rains that caused floods. So extensive was the damage to Erzincan city that its old site was entirely abandoned and a new settlement was founded a little further to the north.
In better news, a reply is received from our Embassy in
Moscow: another brigade of medium armour is commenced – the newer BT-7M, reviewed back in early October. The Army would have liked a brigade of the KV-1s, but the cost is prohibitive: over 20 IC against a peacetime budget available for production of around 55-57 IC on average. The I-16 interceptors too would be expensive – around 14 IC. For now, mainstream ground forces will remain the focus. Another 11 diplomatic points are available for use, which should be sufficient for now.
In Finland, perhaps a corner has been turned. In the south, the Soviets have taken the Finnish province of
Valkjärvi, which only a bit more than a week ago had been used to mount the attack on
Osinovets. In the north,
Polyarny (directly west of
Murmansk) has been retaken. The next fortnightly update will give more detail.
29 Dec 30
Athina’s air defences receive another welcome boost. This frees up more IC for the recently ordered armoured brigade.
30 Dec 39
News Report: Berlin, Germany. An article written by Hermann Göring appears in the Völkischer Beobachter warning that as soon as Hitler orders the Luftwaffe to attack Britain “it will make an assault such as world history never has experienced.”
Hermann Göring, seen here with Hitler in late 1939: First Great War fighter ace; Second Great War venal buffoon and war criminal!
31 Dec 39
Winter War – Second Update
The Finns are clearly not letting
Valkjärvi go easily, mounting a
reckless counter attack, while MAJGEN Sandalov’s 15th Light Tank Division executes a
masterful delaying action, no doubt hoping for reinforcements to help hold the recently seized province. To the south of that, it looks like the Finns either withdrew or were forced out of
Sestroretsk, where a force of six Soviets divisions is rushing in.
In
Ladoga-Onega, the Finnish defence is consolidating, but a large Soviet force is mustering – we presume for an attack. Not much is happening in the centre, it can be seen that more reinforcements have arrived in
Murmansk and Soviet armour had pushed the Finns out of
Polyarny on the 27th – only to be halted by supply problems. Still, at least this is now starting to indicate some progress, after a month of a very unimpressive Soviet invasion.
New Year’s Eve. New Year's Eve observances in Britain, France and Germany are very subdued due to blackout and noise restrictions. Most celebrations are held in private homes with the windows shuttered. German Propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels makes a radio address reviewing the official Nazi version of the events of 1939. No predictions are made for 1940 other than saying that the next year “will be a hard year, and we must be ready for it.”
In
Ankara, Cennet “Connie” Kavgaci (Inönü’s former ward) has completed her initial six-month period of espionage training at S.I.T.H., from where she will be sent to the Embassy in
Paris for some introductory missions as part of her training. She makes her own New Year’s resolution: she won’t be taking revenge on anyone in
Paris. But she is determined her training will not only serve the nation, but will one day help to exact a more personal revenge on those she owes it to.
Cennet Kavgaci, thinking about the heroic Volkan “Vinnie” Inönü (formerly Mancini), who died saving her guardian from an assassination attempt six months ago in Sarajevo. She will soon be in Paris to commence the next stage in her training.
Coming Up: Four years have passed along the
Path to Glory since the chronicle commenced in January 1936 – what will 1940 bring for Turkey and the Union of Glorious National Republics? Germany has gone into hibernation since conquering Denmark, while the Russian Bear woke from its hibernation – only to discover why it usually sleeps through the winter! The Turkish Cabinet watches anxiously for signs of improved efficiency from the Red Army – the ‘forward defenders’ have gone a bit quiet for now. Turkey’s build-up continues, alignment reverts back to progress towards the Comintern. A review of reported military shipping losses will be conducted at the end of January 1940. Otherwise, the Allies remain quiet, as does the rest of the Axis. A Phoney War there indeed – for now.
