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I might not have explained it properly, but most of the UN response is indeed the US. I just decided to simplify it all under the one banner rather than having multiple national forces. So they are involved from the start, pretty much in a one for one basis with Japan, but it’s all under the UN banner in the counters used.
Good Gosh! I've been poking around this AAR (lurking) for several months now, and have never quite had time to come to terms with the enormity of it, nor to get enough awareness of it to feel like I could make an intelligent comment. I think maybe I might remember back when you started this, but I disappeared from the Forum shortly after that time, not to really return until mid-2023.
Anyway, I have spent quite some time over the past few days reviewing parts of this and trying to get a handle on it. Quite an amazing game!
I was especially cheered to see that you had set up some sort of alternative system (with DICE!) to determine the alt-history results of elections due to changed circumstances. I was particularly fascinated by that because "back in the day" (which you know, as we're both old-time cardboard counter wargamers) in the late '80s I developed a "Presidential Election Game" of some sophistication. I had schoolmates play the candidates, with varying views on a dozen major issues of the day, and they'd run against each other. I had a statistics-based system, modified by some limited die rolls, to determine how much support those views would garner in each state, etc. And then whoever won both the primary and general election got to run the country for 4 years in an alt-hist world of their creation. All this was before there were PC computers to do the work, etc. Anyway, I was thrilled to see you had something similar!
Sorry I haven't said anything in your AAR previously, but wanted to let you know you have my attention, and I'll make efforts to get to know the AAR better.
Thanks! Yes, many will contribute (similar to OTL). But to simplify the mini-game, no LN national contingents will be represented, just composite LN divisions. And the Japanese maintaining their separate chain of command, affiliated with but not part of the LN command structure (for now, anyway).
They've decided 'it must be safe by now' and, it being a small town photography studio for a personal portrait - before the age of social media or internet searches - they reckon they'll be alright. Or are they taking too great a risk? Does Turkey care any more and would they dare interfere within the US? Only time will tell ...
The U.S. position is clear enough but that's a difficult balancing act for Truman. Notably in TTL this war is happening in the Japanese sphere of influence and although the U.S. has been repairing relations with Japan, I haven't noticed any indication of a thaw with the U.K. What is the British position on this conflict?
Despite holding Seoul, that's a tough start for the ROK and that line is now very thin. Presuming we get more of the same over the next couple of weeks, there's not going to be much left to stop the DPRK. The next week is week 1, so will the ROK receive replacements before the next round fighting (i.e. two divisions while they still hold Seoul) or afterwards?
Tough for South Korea to start with and July will be crucial - though the DPRK need to win quickly or the entry of more and better Japanese and LN formations, plus South Korean replacements and gradually improved combat capabilities from 1951 onwards, will make it hard for them to win a total victory. And yes, the replacements and reinforcements for both sides will be deployed first thing in July, before the next Communist impulse phase.
Considering how much of the faults in the OTL initial US response to Korea were down to just how ridiculously fast the US hung up their military after WW2, this gives them far more time to get themselves organized.
And the ROK definitely needs them and the other LN contingents. Also, it's a chance for the US to gain more influence in the region following their rather anodyne performance in TTL's GW2. Japan can't really resist that involvement - they need it in Korea and more widely in northern mainland China.
For them, it will also be part of the diplomatic price of their 'reach West' political program. Much as some of their Imperialist die-hards may dislike it, they can't have their cake and eat it too. The new Japanese mainstream leaders are in search of a new post-Imperialist model that allows them to maintain influence (political, economic and military) through the GEACPS rather than direct rule, while integrating more into the Turkish (3rd Way) and Western world economy. Thus developing their own.
That Korean War wargame looks interesting. Definitely more time-consuming than a few dice-rolls, but well worth it for the more detailed reporting we get from it. North Korea is looking like the likely loser. They really had to take Seoul early on to have the best shot at winning and they already missed that window, so now it's looking like a long slog as both sides gradually build up forces, which the Japan/US/Allies side seems most likely to win
Thank you. I thought it would be a game-like chance to make this an actual HOI3-looking gameplay AAR again And it's very easy to play solitaire on a turn-by-turn basis. Interesting to see the readership split between those thinking either the North or South should prove the eventual winners. They did want Seoul in that first week, but then again new ROK divisions are very weak at this stage anyway, so one more of them may not make that much difference: IF the DPRK can take Seoul in July. If not - and the LN Coalition can hold on and reinforce its defence, they may indeed be very hard to shift.
Good Gosh! I've been poking around this AAR (lurking) for several months now, and have never quite had time to come to terms with the enormity of it, nor to get enough awareness of it to feel like I could make an intelligent comment. I think maybe I might remember back when you started this, but I disappeared from the Forum shortly after that time, not to really return until mid-2023.
Lovely to have you comment here Renss (if I may be permitted to use that diminutive ). Per above, it's very nearly at its 7-year anniversary. Funny to think that it was my first ever AAR (I sometimes look back at the earlier episodes for a bit of nostalgia) and is still going - six ATL years after the actual game finished ! As I say to all who start in, please feel free to comment etc on anything that happened way back, I can do separate feedbacks to prevent spoiling if that is your wish.
I was especially cheered to see that you had set up some sort of alternative system (with DICE!) to determine the alt-history results of elections due to changed circumstances. I was particularly fascinated by that because "back in the day" (which you know, as we're both old-time cardboard counter wargamers) in the late '80s I developed a "Presidential Election Game" of some sophistication. I had schoolmates play the candidates, with varying views on a dozen major issues of the day, and they'd run against each other. I had a statistics-based system, modified by some limited die rolls, to determine how much support those views would garner in each state, etc. And then whoever won both the primary and general election got to run the country for 4 years in an alt-hist world of their creation. All this was before there were PC computers to do the work, etc. Anyway, I was thrilled to see you had something similar!
Thank you, I have always enjoyed that kind of thing and it helped introduce a bit of game-like uncertainty into the post-war period that I ended up taking the AAR into. Nice to hear of a kindred spirit there. I too did a game based on Australian politics back in the 1970s in what sounds like a not-dissimilar way!
Sorry I haven't said anything in your AAR previously, but wanted to let you know you have my attention, and I'll make efforts to get to know the AAR better.
Not at all - it's so nice to get new readers and especially commenters this far along in the AAR (I sometime get PMs from people who have just embarked on a read-through).
Reinforcements arrived for both sides at the start of July 1950:
Coalition: ROK 1 replacement division, 2 new divisions; LN and Japan: 1 new Div each. Coalition air support became available.
Communists: DPRK – 1 new division, 1 released from the Manchurian border.
Reinforcements and replacements marked in green, red for the first DPRK division released from Manchukuo border guard duty.
US troops disembark in Suwon as part of the first LN division to deploy to South Korea in early July 1950.
The DPRK massed 9 divisions (32 combat power) to attack 2 Japanese and one ROK division (12 CP) defending Seoul in a high-risk offensive at odds of 3-1. With city defence and Coalition air support (-1 each on the die roll), the job became even tougher. But the North Koreans attacked with verve, forcing the defenders out of the capital (9-2=7, DR result).
North Korean troops enter Seoul, 7 July 1950.
The Coalition troops retreated south-east to Songnam, while the North garrisoned the ROK capital with 5 divisions. The Coalition could not mass sufficient combat power to counter-attack and had used its air power defending Seoul, so simply established a defensive line.
---xxx---
World Events: 1-7 Jul
In a cablegram sent from North Korea's Foreign Minister, Pak Hon‑yong, to League of Nations Secretary General Trygve Lie on 3 July, North Korea announced that it had no intention of agreeing to the LN Security Council resolution 82, calling for an end to hostilities and withdrawal of troops.
Pak Hon-yong, DPRK’s Foreign Minister in July 1950.
On 5 July New Zealand dispatched its first troops to the Korean War and the Australian Department of Defence ordered the drafting of 14,000 men into its armed forces in order to fight in Korea.
The US Department of Defense on 7 July implemented the newly renewed draft law "to build up to full operating strength the units of the Army, Navy and Air Force to be used in the Korean operation.
Without a Soviet Union representative appearing to cast a veto against it, LN Security Council Resolution 84 passed on 7 July, authorising a multinational League of Nations force, under US command, to fight against North Korea. The Resolution noted that the Council "Recommends that all Members of the League of Nations make such forces and other assistance available".
The LNSC votes on Resolution 84, 7 July 1950.
However, while fighting broadly under the LN mandate, Japan would retain its own chain of command. The two chains of command would rely on liaison officers and mutual agreement – which was often a bit bumpy and led to delays and misunderstandings. At a secret meeting in the White House earlier in the day, US President Truman declined a suggestion from CIA Director Roscoe Hillenkoetter that the LN be asked to approve use of the atomic bomb in the war.
---xxx---
Korean War: 8-15 July
The PRC (in exile) sent in its expeditionary division (3 CP) by rail from Vladivostok in the second week of the war. They would typically be used as ‘shock troops’ in Communist attacks in case exchange casualties had to be taken (in the same way the Coalition would use ROK divisions where applicable).
The Chinese (PRC) Volunteer Expeditionary Force enters North Korea, 13 July 1950.
Two attacks were launched by the North, this time designed not just to take ground but to destroy as many ROK divisions as possible to force the Coalition to thin its lines and give ground.
The attack along the coast in Kangnung (5-1, 8 rolled) destroyed the defending ROK division. However, the main attack on the hills of Ch’unch’on (6-1, air support, 1 rolled) resulted in a contact only: given the odds, an abject failure for the DPRK, though no troops or ground were lost (not possible at those odds).
South Korean troops in an OP overlooking the western approaches to Ch’unch’on, 10 July 1950.
In any case, the DPRK pushed one division down the coast in Kangnung in a more limited attempt to outflank and stretch the Coalition line.
While the North’s offensive had fallen short of expectations in terms of destruction, the Coalition forces decided they would be best served forming a new defensive line behind the Han River, with the LN anchoring the line in Suwon, the Japanese to their east and South Koreans holding the hills towards the coast. The Communists had got the ground they wanted but not the strategic aim they had sought.
---xxx---
World Events: 8-15 Jul
President Truman named General Douglas MacArthur as commanding general of the League of Nations forces in Korea on 8 July. The US Joint Chiefs of Staff received a message from MacArthur the following day asking for the making atomic bombs available for use in the Korean War to be considered.
General Douglas MacArthur takes up the command of LN forces in Korea, 8 July 1950.
General Charles Bolte, the JCS Chief of Operations, advised the Joint Chiefs that as many as 20 of the 250 American A-bombs could be spared for what MacArthur described as "a unique use of the atomic bomb" to destroy tunnels and bridges leading into North Korea from the Soviet Union [China in OTL]. The JCS tabled the motion, as well as MacArthur's request for additional US troops, until "two of their number" could visit Korea personally. US Army General J. Lawton Collins and US Air Force General Hoyt S. Vandenberg would arrive in Tokyo on July 13.
Canada troops embark to join the LN task force in Korea, 12 July 1950.
Then on 14 July South Korea's President Syngman Rhee signed the "Letter in Regard to Transfer of Operational Authority", transferring command of the Republic of Korea armed forces directly to Japanese command [MacArthur in OTL].
---xxx---
Korean War: 16-23 July
The consolidation of the Coalition’s line behind the Han had the desired effect of limiting the DPRK’s option in the third week of July. [Note, hadn’t mentioned it earlier, but I’m applying a stacking limit of five divisions – corps strength – per province, to avoid death stacks.] In this case, for the latest attack on the three ROK divisions defending Chech’on, the DPRK massed five in Kangnung, with two more being forced to attack across the Han (half strength) from T’sabaeck-sanmack (4-1 odds, defensive air support). Songnam was not occupied to shorten the Communist’s line to allow the concentration of force in the east.
This time, the result was a massive victory for the DPRK (10 rolled, -1 for air support, 9=Defenders eliminated). All three ROK divisions were destroyed as fighting units: only Coalition air support had prevented them from surrendering altogether (and thus not being available for later replacement).
DPRK troops on the attack at Chech’on, 17 July 1950.
This was a disaster for the LN-Japanese cause, thinning the line even further and unhinging the eastern end of the Han River line.
The Coalition reeled backwards: all they could now do was to re-establish the line as best they could and hope reinforcement due in early August would help to stabilise a deteriorating situation. This was assisted marginally by the shortening of the width of the line to five provinces, leaving the LN division to hold Suwon alone on the left, while Japanese and ROK forces combined to defend the rest of the line as best they could. They chose to withdraw from Wonju, leaving it open rather than sacrificing another division of the rapidly dwindling ROK army as a screen.
---xxx---
World Events: 16-23 Jul
Julius Rosenberg, 32, was arrested at his 11th floor Manhattan apartment on 10 Monroe Street 17 July. Rosenberg had been fired in 1945 as civilian inspector for the U.S. Army Signal Corps, and had been identified by his brother-in-law, David Greenglass, as a spy.
Julius Rosenberg’s mug shot when arrested for espionage on 17 July 1950.
---xxx---
Korean War: 24-31 Jul
While taking Suwon would completely unhinge the Coalition defensive line, it was strongly held by the mainly US LN division, defending urban terrain behind the Han River. With LN defensive air support, the chances of success were slight. Chon’an was another possible objective, but only the eastern flank was open to an advance for troops across clear ground.
The next Communist attack would be a somewhat difficult assault on the Japanese holding the hills of Chongu, but at least no river crossing was required from either axis of approach. Five DPRK and the Chinese division participated but the attack was not strongly prosecuted and LN air support further eroded momentum (4-1 rolled). Contact was broken with neither side yielding any ground.
Japanese troops successfully defend Chongu, 28 July 1950.
This outcome was met with considerable relief by the Japanese-LN commanders. They could now seek to bolster their defences after a month in which 4 ROK divisions had been destroyed, making a total of 5 of them destroyed and one surrendered since the start of the war in late June.
The position in Korea, 31 July 1950. The map shows the extent of Communist advances in the five weeks since the start of the war.
---xxx---
World Events: 24-31 Jul
Japan's Red Scare saw the firing of 180 newspaper employees suspected of being Japanese Communist Party members or sympathisers 28 July, while NHK, (the Japan Broadcasting Corporation) barred more than 100 of its employees from entering its facilities.
The Red Scare purge continued in Japan during July 1950. Here, Japanese police raid the Communist Party of Japan’s HQ, 28 July 1950.
A brief meeting between Chinese and Japanese Occupation representatives at the end of the month noted the ‘significant distraction’ caused by the Communist attack on South Korea. The next year would, in any case, be devoted to bedding down the initial handback and transition process for the northern parts of Heinan, Zhejiang and Anhui hand back in the April-June period.
There were some more radical advocates in Chiang’s Nationalist regime who advocated taking advantage of Japanese distraction to present them an ultimatum for more territory to be handed back ahead of schedule. Some even contemplated an all-out attack to attempt to seize the rest of the Occupied Territories in one great sweep.
However, cooler heads prevailed in Nanjing, given this would open the door for the Communists not only in Korea, but also in Mongolia and Manchuria. If Mao’s guerillas triumphed there, perhaps on the back of a direct Soviet intervention, they would inevitably use that as a springboard back into China itself. And in the long run, the Nationalists wanted both those regions subsumed back into a Greater China: seeing Soviet puppets established there could put them out of reach for a generation or more.
Also, internationally such an action taken against an LNSC member engaged in a fight against Communism in Korea and facing Soviet provocations along the northern borders of their puppet states would draw great opprobrium from the US in particular and the West in general. Apart from branding China as a treaty-breaker. No, Chiang would play the long game but remain alert to opportunities as they arose – whether interventions against Japan or the Communists might prove promising.
A wise decision from ROC about the territory. Keep playing those US and Japanese for their own hand-offs, and then build the strong economy to overcome both!
Shame to see TTLs Korea going much the same way as OTL. There's nothing in the mini-game rules about the Pusan Perimeter, or for Incheon style landings in the rear. Without the notionally recent amphibious assault doctrines of OTLs WW2 Pacific theater, I doubt the US really has what it would take to execute such an operation.
Without a Soviet Union representative appearing to cast a veto against it, LN Security Council Resolution 84 passed on 7 July, authorising a multinational League of Nations force, under US command, to fight against North Korea.
US President Truman declined a suggestion from CIA Director Roscoe Hillenkoetter that the LN be asked to approve use of the atomic bomb in the war.
The US Joint Chiefs of Staff received a message from MacArthur the following day asking for the making atomic bombs available for use in the Korean War to be considered.
General Charles Bolte, the JCS Chief of Operations, advised the Joint Chiefs that as many as 20 of the 250 American A-bombs could be spared for what MacArthur described as "a unique use of the atomic bomb" to destroy tunnels and bridges leading into North Korea from the Soviet Union.
On 5 July New Zealand dispatched its first troops to the Korean War and the Australian Department of Defence ordered the drafting of 14,000 men into its armed forces in order to fight in Korea.
I should imagine the US had to twist a few arms to achieve this? It's not so long since Australia and New Zealand were enduring partial occupation by the Japanese.
Then on 14 July South Korea's President Syngman Rhee signed the "Letter in Regard to Transfer of Operational Authority", transferring command of the Republic of Korea armed forces directly to Japanese command
The DPRK massed 9 divisions (32 combat power) to attack 2 Japanese and one ROK division (12 CP) defending Seoul in a high-risk offensive at odds of 3-1. With city defence and Coalition air support (-1 each on the die roll), the job became even tougher. But the North Koreans attacked with verve, forcing the defenders out of the capital (9-2=7, DR result).
The attack along the coast in Kangnung (5-1, 8 rolled) destroyed the defending ROK division. However, the main attack on the hills of Ch’unch’on (6-1, air support, 1 rolled) resulted in a contact only: given the odds, an abject failure for the DPRK, though no troops or ground were lost (not possible at those odds).
A serious miss by the DPRK. Consider how much worse the LN position would have been by the end of the month if the South Koreans had suffered another heavy defeat here!
All three ROK divisions were destroyed as fighting units: only Coalition air support had prevented them from surrendering altogether (and thus not being available for later replacement).
This was a disaster for the LN-Japanese cause, thinning the line even further and unhinging the eastern end of the Han River line.
The Coalition reeled backwards: all they could now do was to re-establish the line as best they could and hope reinforcement due in early August would help to stabilise a deteriorating situation.
I suppose the best that can be said is that the LN line looks a little stronger at the end of July than it did at the end of June, but a lot of territory has been lost over the course of the month (including of course Seoul) and the situation continues to look pretty desperate.
There were some more radical advocates in Chiang’s Nationalist regime who advocated taking advantage of Japanese distraction to present them an ultimatum for more territory to be handed back ahead of schedule. Some even contemplated an all-out attack to attempt to seize the rest of the Occupied Territories in one great sweep.
Quick answer: I hadn’t specifically planned mechanics for any amphibious landings, but would plan to hold one of the entry ports until the end. If all Korean vp locations are taken by one side, the war will end per the earlier conditions (hoi3 style). But conceivably, depending on the situation, both Japan and the UN could launch amphibious landings if the circumstances suggest it, using ‘stockpiled’ reinforcements. Otherwise, they’ll tend to reinforce in ports if held.
Been a few weeks while I've concentrated it moving the three other AARs along. And was isolated from my percentage dice - and nervous energy! - for a week while getting over Covid, which I did in record time with the help of antivirals: far less severe than last time a year ago; symptom free and testing negative after just 6 days).
Anyway, we resume with comment feedback from the last episode, with the new one ready to go.
A wise decision from ROC about the territory. Keep playing those US and Japanese for their own hand-offs, and then build the strong economy to overcome both!
Indeed. Time is on their side, there is no urgency and the first tranche of the deal went off without a hitch, showing the Japanese word backed with US oversight could be relied upon - for now. All the more so with the Communists rampant in Korea. And the last thing Chiang would want is for them to gain the upper hand, with Soviets and PLA guerrillas on their doorstep. Japan makes a handy buffer for now.
Shame to see TTLs Korea going much the same way as OTL. There's nothing in the mini-game rules about the Pusan Perimeter, or for Incheon style landings in the rear. Without the notionally recent amphibious assault doctrines of OTLs WW2 Pacific theater, I doubt the US really has what it would take to execute such an operation.
Would be played by ear if necessary, using the broad rules as defined. Nothing special envisaged. Things have been difficult so far, but actually not as rapidly disastrous as in OTL. Yet, anyway. The presence of the IJA on the ground from the start, and able to reinforce comparatively quickly, is one major difference from OTL. The rest is the luck of the die roll and the game system I've devised (but only very quickly play-tested).
It was a blunder in OTL I've chosen to replicate in TTL. I wonder whether there would have been non-UN backed contributions anyway (though perhaps more limited, though likely including the US) had there not been a UNSC resolution?
Not at this stage. It wasn't used in OTL, even when reduced to the Pusan Perimeter or when the Chinese intervened, so I'm thinking it would only become a thing here in extremis. Not sure how much use it would have been as a battlefield weapon (and on South Korean soil, too), while nuking say Pyongyang might have been considered somewhat provocative and unsporting (and disproportionate) in a civil war type context.
I should imagine the US had to twist a few arms to achieve this? It's not so long since Australia and New Zealand were enduring partial occupation by the Japanese.
Quite, but this time its against the Red Menace, LN-backed and the Japanese (for reasons that make sense for both sides) are fighting under separate a command structure. But yes, you wouldn't want some GW2 veterans from either side meeting up in a behind the lines bar off duty, would you!
They just need to concentrate on the mutual enemy, as with the Soviets in WW2. Perhaps I should observe a 'no stacking unless forced to' rule, where Japan and the LN can only stack with their own or South Korean troops, but not together, to reflect the mutual ambivalence and separate command structures?
I'll try to observe that going forward as best I can. They could still attack the same objective from different provinces, say, but not stack in or occupy a province together.
The LN just needs to hold out long enough for their numbers to build and the South Koreans to start improving their skills and equipment. If the DPRK can't win this year, its hard to see them winning overall - without Soviet intervention. Which would be politically fraught as a permanent LN SC member.
A serious miss by the DPRK. Consider how much worse the LN position would have been by the end of the month if the South Koreans had suffered another heavy defeat here!
I suppose the best that can be said is that the LN line looks a little stronger at the end of July than it did at the end of June, but a lot of territory has been lost over the course of the month (including of course Seoul) and the situation continues to look pretty desperate.
Very true. For now, he can afford to keep playing the long game and have the fruit continue to fall into his lap. While not empowering his Communist opponents within or outside China. Best Mao's few remaining soldiers die horribly in Korean than re-launch a guerrilla campaign in the ROC!
You're welcome. Yes, though they still have the narrow but direct line of access from the USSR in the north-east. And while the Japanese would be tempted to attack from Manchuria, in-universe they are under undeclared border pressure across a very long frontier with the USSR and would be afraid an intervention by them might give the Soviets an handy excuse to intervene in Korea themselves: "an imperialist act of aggression against North Korea", rather than the existing intervention with South Korea in its defence. While the Soviets would also step up the border pressure, limiting the amount of divisions the Japanese could afford to dedicate to a second front.
Reinforcements arrived for both sides at the start of the month (all marked in green below). The LN Coalition forces took on one new division each from the LN, Japan and South Korea, with the latter also receiving a replacement for one of their previously destroyed divisions. North Korea received one new division and a second (marked in red below) released from the border with Manchuria.
Fresh South Korean reinforcements deploying into the then-quiet Ch’ongju province, 1 August 1950.
With Suwon their key target but too heavily defended behind rivers to risk as assault, North Korea instead decided to mount an offensive against the eastern end of the line instead, hoping to deplete the LN forces and expand the line they needed to defend and break through there instead.
With the 2nd LN Division guarding Tonghae, the assault was a risky one, with LN air support making the task more difficult.
But the attack was executed flawlessly [die roll 10]. Had it not been for the defensive air support, both defending divisions would have been destroyed. As it was, a Korean division was destroyed and the 2nd LN Div forced to retreat to Ulchin.
All the LN Coalition could do was to reorganise their now thinned and lengthened line as best they could, waiting for the next move by the Communists.
---xxx---
World Events: 1-7 August
The Soviet Union returned to the League of Nations Security Council on 1 August to take up the rotating Presidency, after having refused to send a delegate since January. During the Soviet absence, the Security Council had authorised the League of Nations to enter the Korean War, a move the Soviets could have vetoed had they not been petulantly boycotting the body.
Soviet diplomat Jacob Malik, new (rotational) President of the Security Council, bringing the LN Security Meeting to order, 1 August 1950.
---xxx---
Korean War: 8-15 August
The next North Korean objective was in the centre, at Ch’ongju. Having degraded and diluted the Coalition’s defensive line, they now hoped to develop an advance towards Suwon from the east, rolling through Ch’onan next.
This attack was stronger than the last though not quite so well planned [die roll 5]. Both sides lost a division, though the North was still able to take the key province, which they hoped would be a stepping stone to a decisive victory.
North Korean troops celebrate taking Ch’ongju, 15 August 1950. It was a key moment, but had come at great cost, with an entire DRPK division destroyed in the assault.
Once more, the Coalition sought to defend its weakened line as best it could. The LN plus a South Korean division would hold Suwon, which they could not risk losing. The Japanese held the centre three province, the LN Taegu further to the east, while the right end of the line had to be held by two of the under-strength ROK divisions, a risk made necessary by the circumstances.
---xxx---
World Events: 8-15 August
On 11 August the Consultative Assembly of the new Council of Europe voted in favour of a proposal by Winston Churchill, taking advantage of the heightened Western fear of Communist aggression, for a United European Army that would be allied with Canada and the United States.
Former British PM Winston Churchill, a member of the Council of Europe Consultative Assembly, proposes the formation of a United European Army, 11 August 1950.
Ethel Rosenberg was arrested in New York City on 11 August, 25 days after her husband Julius Rosenberg had been arrested and charged with espionage. Ethel's brother, David Greenglass, had implicated her as a co-conspirator with Julius in passing on atomic secrets to the Soviet Union. The Soviets may have been first there, but the US did not want them to have knowledge of their own program, which had begun to accelerate and may now be making new discoveries the Soviets had not.
Ethel Rosenberg’s arrest photo, 11 August 1950.
---xxx---
Korean War: 16-23 August
The next DPRK attack in their latest offensive was the strongest yet, applying odds of five-to-one against the Japanese defending Ch’onan, on the open eastern approaches to Suwon. They had high hopes of not only gaining this key ground to make an attack on Suwon realistic, but if they could destroy the Japanese division it would present even greater opportunities for the rest of the month. It was likely the pivotal battle of the opening phase of the war.
But from their high point at Tonghae at the start of August, North Korean battlefield performance had steadily deteriorated. The attack on Ch’onan was poorly executed [die roll 3], resulting in a stand-off – but a tactical win for the Coalition, buying them more time. A loss may have forced a withdrawal from Suwon before it was surrounded.
Relieved Japanese troops in Ch’onan can hardly believe their luck after defeating a massive North Korean attack in which they had been vastly outnumbered.
The tired Japanese defenders of Ch’onan were rotated out for the 1st LN Division coming from Suwon, being the only change to the line made after the last Communist attack. The slightly stronger LN division would make a follow-up assault by the North Koreans that little bit harder. Had they been available, another South Korean division would have been handy to improve the odds [and provide some cannon fodder should an exchange result occur in another attack], but it was felt the two ends of the line should not be further weakened.
---xxx---
World Events: 16-23 August
The Republic of Indonesia was proclaimed on 17 August by Autonomous Republican President Sukarno, who dissolved the existing federation, and the Autonomous Republic within the Netherlands, in favour of a centrally ruled republic. The date marked the fifth anniversary of 17August 1945, beginning of the Indonesian National Revolution, when Sukarno and Mohammad Hatta had declared the nation's islands independent.
President Sukarno proclaims the Republic of Indonesia fully independent of the Netherlands, 17 August 1950.
On 25 August France agreed to send an infantry battalion to fight in the Korean War.
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Korean War: 24-31 August
Thwarted the week before in their first attempt to take Ch’onan and thus possibly liberate Suwon before the end of the month, the North Koreans decided to try again, throwing in six divisions against 1st LN Div. But just in case they suffered a setback [ie an AR result], one division in each of the two provinces the attack was mounted from were held back. Combat power odds of four-to-one should be enough to carry off the attack.
As it happened, the attack was botched from the start. LN air power wasn’t even needed to rout the enemy so badly that all six DPRK divisions were flung to the rear in an LN counter-attack. The screening forces were left in place, but they were now badly exposed to a further LN follow-up.
In retrospect, this was a bad misreading of the odds by the North Korean commanders (ie me). The worst result at 5-1 would have been a contact (which this would have been). But my unchecked mental calculation had put the attacking requirement at 32 rather than 30 (d’oh) and the North had 31 points available with the two reserve divisions. Bad planning and even worse die rolling! In the end, it cost them a province and (temporarily) the PLA division.
US Marine artillery support the highly successful defence by LN 1st Div in the Second Battle of Ch’onan, 23 August 1950.
This paved the way for a massive attack on the isolated PLA Volunteer Division on 30 August. The odds were crushing and though the LN’s limited air support had already been committed for the defence of Ch’onan, it was not needed [die roll 7]. The Chinese division was destroyed and Ch’ongju retaken.
US troops of the 2nd LN Div take prisoners during the liberation of Ch’ongju from the shattered PLA rearguard, 31 August 1950.
As August ended, net North Korean gains since the start of the month had been limited to Tonghae on the east coast. The line had been consolidated and damage contained, though a large segment of South Korea remained in Communist hands.
In OTL South Korea and the UN had been overrun and confined to the Pusan perimeter.
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World Events: 24-31 August
On 25 August Belgium created the Corps Voluntaires Corea to fight in the Korean War, and sent 900 men in the 1st Belgian Battalion, which would arrive in December.
The first United Kingdom troops arrived in South Korea on 29 August.
The first British troops arrived from Hong Kong, joining their US colleagues in the 1st LN Division, on 29 August 1950, just as the Ch’ongju counter-attack was being launched.
All it would take is Russian troops landing in the North to get a stalemate going, because at this stage, the super powers still don't actually want to fight each other and are afraid of what would happen if they do.
Rebuilding the post war detente by agreeing a demarcation line and north/south Korea in exchange for Soviets coming back to the LN full time and relations warming up again would be good for everyone.
In retrospect, this was a bad misreading of the odds by the North Korean commanders (ie me). The worst result at 5-1 would have been a contact (which this would have been). But my unchecked mental calculation had put the attacking requirement at 32 rather than 30 (d’oh) and the North had 31 points available with the two reserve divisions. Bad planning and even worse die rolling! In the end, it cost them a province and (temporarily) the PLA division.
During the Soviet absence, the Security Council had authorised the League of Nations to enter the Korean War, a move that the Soviets could have vetoed had they not been petulantly boycotting the body.
On 11 August the Consultative Assembly of the new Council of Europe voted in favour of a proposal by Winston Churchill, taking advantage of the heightened Western fear of Communist aggression, for a United European Army that would be allied with Canada and the United States.
But the attack was executed flawlessly. Had it not been for the defensive air support, both defending divisions would have been destroyed. As it was, a Korean division was destroyed and the 2nd LN forced to retreat to Ulchin.
This attack was stronger than the last though not quite so well planned as the last. Both sides lost a division, though the North was still able to take the key province, which they hoped would be a stepping stone to a decisive victory.
As it happened, the attack was botched from the start. LN air power wasn’t even needed to rout the enemy so badly that all six DPRK divisions were flung to the rear in an LN counter-attack. The screening forces were left in place, but they were now badly exposed to a further LN follow-up.
This paved the way for a massive attack on the isolated PLA Volunteer Division on 30 August. The odds were crushing and though the LNs limited air support had already been committed for the defence of Ch’onan, it was not needed. The Chinese division was destroyed and Ch’ongju.
This is a massive victory for the League of Nations and we may look back on August 1950 as the month fortunes in this war turned around. The North only made marginal gains and sustained significant losses. Significantly, all the LN and Japanese divisions remain intact and were able to counter-attack for the first time.
Time for some comment feedback before the next big chapter posts - which includes a bit of a return of some brief narrative and strategic analysis elements to balance the ongoing Korean War reporting.
All it would take is Russian troops landing in the North to get a stalemate going, because at this stage, the super powers still don't actually want to fight each other and are afraid of what would happen if they do.
This is probably quite true, with more potential for frightening escalation than the OTL Chinese intervention. That would bring Japan in from Manchuria, with a possible wider conflict along their long border, plus as you say the potential for substantive clashes between the US and Soviets on the ground in Korea itself. Even without that Soviet ground intervention, there is the potential for clashes (as we will see an example of in the next chapter, based on actual OTL events). A declaration about invading the north by the USSR in the ATL would carry greater weight and visibility (and require far more serious consideration) than the one Mao made in OTL 1950.
Rebuilding the post war detente by agreeing a demarcation line and north/south Korea in exchange for Soviets coming back to the LN full time and relations warming up again would be good for everyone.
Well, the Soviets are now back at the LN as at August 1950, but of course its more of a stand-off than any practical détente-like cooperation at this point. The dynamic for Korea has close parallels to OTL but also some sharp differences, with the potential for Soviet involvement at some point (were the Allies to gain the upper hand, as they did in OTL) more imminent. Of course, with the North Koreans still on the offensive despite the LN intervention, the Soviets can afford to sit and wait to see how things develop, while supplying the North and facilitating their operations indirectly (their much-used proxy war model).
Yes indeed. By making it a ten-sided rather than 6-sided CRT, I deliberately introduced more RNG uncertainty into the mix, given I have to play the war solitaire and with rather simplified game mechanics. I like the potential for extremes favouring either side, so I can take decisions knowing there could be quite a range of results. For the LN Coalition, the real key is being able to get those defensive battle odds to 4-1 or below. At 5-1 or above, the enemy can be held off but not really damaged.
A good point! What they really need is a more NATO approach, with the smaller ATL Western Europe now even more reliant on North American support. Hmm, I wonder what might happen there in the coming months
For now, anyway, but each new month presents an opportunity for the North to get first bite of the pie after reinforcements and replacements are received. We shall see what they can make of it.
Not too many, though if it's only one per month they can get it back as a replacement at the start of the next one (same with the Chinese EF). If it happens to more than one, and/or at the start of the month, it can hamper them. But they must take such risks if they wish to win and not just hold ground. With these game mechanics, initiative is really important. For example, if the LN can afford to withhold its air power in the defensive phase and use it to support an attack at reasonable odds, they could make inroads (as they did in August) against any lightly defended province if they can concentrate sufficient force.
This is a massive victory for the League of Nations and we may look back on August 1950 as the month fortunes in this war turned around. The North only made marginal gains and sustained significant losses. Significantly, all the LN and Japanese divisions remain intact and were able to counter-attack for the first time.
The North was definitely checked in August, but will of course get reinforcements in September - including the last of those three divisions which had been manning the Manchurian border. The set Japanese and LN reinforcements (their first tranche, anyway) are also coming to an end. The North will need to attack (as they did in OTL) in September if they wish to win this thing, otherwise it could devolve into stalemate - or even an LN Coalition counter-attack.
To All: Thanks for your continued support, comments and readership. It means everything to me as this story works its way into its eighth year!!
Reinforcements arrived for both sides at the start of the month (all marked in green below). The LN Coalition forces took on one new division each from the LN, Japan and South Korea, with the latter two also receiving replacements for one of their previously destroyed divisions. North Korea received one new division and the third and last (marked in red below) released from the border with Manchuria, with one replacement Chinese and North Korean division in addition from the previous month’s casualties.
North Korea launched its Great Naktong Offensive on 1 September, aiming once again to take the port city of Suwon [not a VP city, though].
The North Korean Great Naktong Offensive and the Battles of Ka-san, Tabu-dong and Yongsan began as part of the larger Battle of Pusan Perimeter in the Korean War.
The first phase of the offensive was a renewed attack on Ch’ongju, held by two Japanese divisions, launched at odds of 4-1.
Japanese defensive positions in the hills of Ch’ongju, as viewed from the north, September 1950.
Despite supporting LN air power, the attack was well planned [7-1 rolled] and the Japanese were driven back, losing one division in the process.
As a strong North Korean column secured Ch’ongju, all the LN could do was to try to hold Ch’onan with an LN and ROK division, while the loss of Ch’ongju and the Japanese division forced the Coalition to lengthen its line, with one of the Japanese divisions in Suwon being sent across the plug the gap, while the LN and ROK held the eastern end of the line in Taegu and Ulchin.
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Events: 1-7 September
On 4 September a Soviet Air Force bomber was shot down off the coast of North Korea by two US Navy fighter planes, after reportedly firing at an LN naval force. All of the crewmen on the downed aircraft were killed, while two other bombers escaped.
Demolition of the Royal Hohenzollern Palace began in Berlin on 6 September, as part of a campaign by the government of East Germany's Communist government to remove symbols of Germany's former imperialism. From a hidden location, Otto Skorzeny vowed to “Demolish a Stalinistic Monstrosity in return for this act of cultural vandalism – at a time of our choosing.”
Demolition charges set off at the Berlin City Palace, 4 September 1950.
On the same day, the Soviet Union vetoed an LNSC resolution condemning North Korea.
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Korean War: 8-15 September
The next phase of the Communist offensive aimed to take Ch’onan, defended by the LN and an ROK division. With just one DPRK division having to attack over a river, odds of 5-1 were generated by a major concentration of Communist forces. The attack was however somewhat hesitant [4-1 rolled], with LN air support causing the Chinese expeditionary division to once again be essentially destroyed as a fighting force for the rest of the month in heavy fighting from 8-11 September. Another ROK division was overrun.
The North Koreans fully secured Ch’onan with an entire corps [I use a 5 division per province stacking limit], which was simply too strong for the Coalition to even contemplate counter-attacking without air support. The LN division fell back to Ch’ongyang, with another ROK formation brought across from the east to reinforce the line. Then they waited for the hammer to fall – most likely on Suwon, which the Japanese and ROK would try to hold.
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Events: 8-15 September
The Defense Production Act was signed into law by US President Truman on 8 September, authorising the President "to build - and maintain at perpetual readiness - US industrial and military mobilisation bases in case of an all-out war with the Soviet Union." And the Canadian Forces Act was passed in Canada, authorising the government to use military forces as necessary "to answer the needs of collective security" and paving the way for Canadian participation in the Korean War.
On 9 September US President Truman announced that four US Army divisions would be sent to Europe to join the two divisions that were assigned to NATO. The West sought to ensure LN preoccupation with Korea did not allow the Soviets to ‘try something opportunistic’ in Western Europe.
President Truman then signed NSC 81 on 11 September. This was a recommendation of the National Security Council, expanding the original goal for the US response in the Korean War. Rather than liberating South Korea, the plan became one of conquering North Korea in order to reunite the peninsula, with American troops to cross the 38th parallel that divided the two nations. Eventually, a cable would be sent to MacArthur at the end of the month passing on these new and highly classified instructions.
The cable to MacArthur authorising a future invasion of North Korea, should it become feasible.
While they were in no position yet to enforce this policy, MacArthur was secretly briefed on this expansion of aims should he eventually find the Coalition in a position to act on it. The LN may be sensitive about this, but the Japanese would be unlikely to object if the chance arose.
MacArthur did however point out that given the current state of the front, more US troops should be allocated to help bolster LN forces in Korea. Preferably, a force to be assembled in Japan for a naval landing behind enemy lines, when the time was right, taking advantage of LN Coalition naval and air supremacy.
The Inchon landings commenced on 15 September, taking the North Koreans largely by surprise. In the south, the Great Naktong Offensive ended in failure, leaving North Korean forces at a disadvantage against United Nations counter-attack.
In Vietnam, the Viet Minh renewed their independence war against the Japanese-backed Vietnamese puppet state, taking advantage of a distracted IJA to occupy the town of Dong Khe on 16 September.
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Korean War: 16-23 September
The crucial attack of the Great Naktong Offensive began on 17 September when nine DPRK divisions attacked Suwon from three directions. Those attacking across the rivers from the north did so with considerably diminished combat power, but combined it was enough to give combat odds of 4-1. The defenders had the advantage of both an urban environment and LN air power to aid their defence: despite the odds, the result was very much in the balance.
In the event, the Communist attack exceeded all expectations in its success. Had it not been for the terrain and Allied air support, the defending Japanese and Korean divisions would have either been forced to surrender or at least be destroyed [10-2 rolled]. As it was, yet another ROK division was destroyed as the Japanese managed to retreat in disorder south to Ch’ongyang.
ROK troops evacuate Suwon airfield, 18 September 1950. Few of the shattered formation would escape the heavy defeat and withdrawal that followed.
USAF close support aircraft in action over Suwon, 19 September 1950. LN air support was one of the key factors that prevented the loss of Suwon becoming a complete disaster, allowing the coalition to reform its line to the south.
In order to shorten the line, Sosan was abandoned, with Japanese and South Korean troops digging in on the coastal plains of Ch’ongyang. The key pivot point of Taejon would be held in strength by two more Japanese divisions, with the LN and ROK holding the Kumi-Ulchin line to the east coast.
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16-23 September: Events and A Meeting in Washington
As an incipient Cold War between the West and the Soviet-led Communist bloc seemed to be brewing in 1950, the gradually democratising Union of Glorious National Republics – led of course by Turkey – and its Bucharest Pact still formed a bridge between the two great power blocs. Japan was increasingly becoming an uneasy but increasingly rehabilitated ‘associate’ of the West but the relationship remained cool and at some distance. The other emerging Asian great power, Chiang’s Nationalist China, was a neutral anti-Communist force, maintaining peaceful but still tense relations with Japan and a careful but generally amicable relationship with the US and the West.
Ismet Inönü was still trying to keep his sprawling but potentially fragile UGNR and wider Bucharest Pact bloc together, as post-war nationalism began to develop tensions within it. He remained on very cordial terms with Stalin, though emerging elements and policies within the Soviet Union gave him – and especially his security apparatus – cause for concern. He also remained on good terms with both sides of US politics and of course was now an active participant in the LNSC as one of the Permanent Five members.
Turkey had supported the LN intervention in the LNSC but had yet to commit to sending any troops, balancing such an active participation against its relations with the Soviets, with whom they (or their satellites) shared a long border in Europe and Central Asia. They also had internal security concerns as they managed their occupation of recently troublesome Madagascar and tensions in the Middle East: currently at peace, but never far from war. And there had been recent stirrings of nationalist and Arab-inspired separatism in Syria, acquired from Vichy France during GW2 and now administered as a Republic within the UGNR.
Turkey had, under Soviet diplomatic pressure and following a personal approach from Stalin himself, abstained in the recent LNSC vote condemning North Korea. This had created some tensions with the US and UK, though they also understood Turkey’s delicate position. Inönü decided to try to manage the crucial US-Turkish relationship through covert means. Thus, on 18 September 1950, a meeting was convened at the FBI’s Head Office at the Department of Justice building in Washington DC.
DOJ Building, Washington DC.
The Turks had sent a small delegation via a military aircraft and the key meeting that took place was between just two people, with no advisers or interpreters present. For the FBI, Associate Director Clyde Tolson – J. Edgar Hoover’s ‘right hand man’ (so to speak) – led the meeting.
FBI Deputy Clyde Tolson.
The Turks had sent an experienced operative who was well-versed with the US security establishment and well known to them. It was none other than the Head of S.I.T.H., Cennet Kavgaci.
S.I.T.H. Chief Cennet Kavgaci.
The discussions covered a variety of topics. Both sides were interested in starting to share (as sensitively as possible) intelligence on Soviet actions in Germany and Poland, and the operation of Communist agents and front organisations in that part of Southern and Eastern Europe within the Turkish sphere of interest – especially in Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania and Greece, where the threat of uprising and civil unrest still simmered.
The Turks would have liked to cooperate on atomic research, but that was an area the US was not willing to countenance, though they did undertake to not hinder or interfere with the Turkish research program. Especially as both sides knew the UK and France were also pursuing this. The US let Cennet know that if Turkey could manage to send a contingent to the LN forces in Korea, in support of its own original vote to authorise the mission in the LNSC, then perhaps further economic and military cooperation between the two great powers would be on the cards.
For its part, Turkey would take the request under careful consideration, needing to balance its role supporting LN processes and decisions against the impact this might have on its relationship with the Soviet Union, especially given recent reported clashes off North Korea between US and Soviet ships and aircraft.
Finally, Cennet had come with a request that was both ‘business and personal’. Tolson listed with interest, then nodded in agreement to Cennet’s request. The details were not minuted or briefed out to any subordinates on either side. But Cennet did leave with a handwritten letter from Tolson to facilitate the next leg of her clandestine mission to the US. She began making her preparations for some internal travel for the following week, once the activity could be properly ‘set up’.
On 22 September the Second Battle of Seoul ended in United Nations victory, following the Inchon landings a few days before.
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Korean War: 24-30 September
The final week of September would see the North Koreans try to wrap up the final phase of the Great Naktong Offensive by securing the southern approaches to Suwon at Ch’ongyang. By leaving only a small garrison in Seoul and two divisions each to screen the eastern provinces of the line, the DPRK was able to mass nine divisions to attack Ch’ongyang from the north along three axes, with no river crossings to impede an assault on open terrain.
DPRK T34/85 tanks and crews prepare for the huge attack the Japanese and South Korean defenders of Ch’ongyang, 24 September 1950.
But by now, the North Koreans had become tired and overextended, with supply lines stretched. Even at combat odds of 5-1, LN air support was barely needed to repel this half-hearted and poorly executed attack, which was pushed back after a two-day battle [minimum 1 rolled, contact result]. The desperate LN Coalition would live to fight on for another month.
A Japanese heavy machine-gun crew engages North Korean ‘human wave' attackers at Ch’ongyang, 25 September 1950.
The lines therefore remained fixed as they had been on 23 September as the month ended. About half of South Korea had been occupied since the start of the war on 25 June. The Great Naktong Offensive had made good ground and secured its main objective of Suwon but had stumbled at its last hurdle.
Would the LN Coalition be able to hold a coherent line and start to wear down the so far largely victorious North Korean Army? Might the coming months bring the possibility of a counter-attack – or just allow a defensive perimeter to protect the key ports and industrial centres of Mokp’o in the south-west and Pusan in the south-east? Would MacArthur’s request for some additional US forces to join the LN Command be granted, along with the capacity for a substantial amphibious landing? Only time would tell …
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24-30 September: Events and 'SF Confidential'
On 26 September the North Atlantic Council, composed of the representatives of the NATO nations, approved "the strategy of placing the maximum number of armed forces" in Western France and the Benelux Countries, close to the Soviet forces in Germany [West Germany in OTL].
Finally, as the month came to a bloody end in Korea – which still dominated world news and events – a far more secretive gathering was afoot on the US West Coast. A secure room had been set up at the FBI Field Office in San Francisco.
The building housing the FBI’s Field Office in San Francisco, 30 September 1950.
Two ‘special guests’ had been summoned by the local Special Agent on orders that ‘came from the top’. They had of course been tracking these two former operatives for some years now, with orders to keep a protective eye on them but otherwise let them live their lives out in relative anonymity. But that idyllic period was now potentially coming to an end.
The door to the sealed meeting room was opened, revealing former LA Detective (and ‘hard man’ Bud White and his glamorous partner, the former MI6 start agent Persephonee ‘Perse’ Fotheringay-Phipps, aka ‘the Rose’.
Bud and Perse at the FBI’s San Francisco Field Office, 30 September 1950.
As the FBI Agent stood aside, a most unexpected caller walked through the door with a confident but controlled swagger. They were surprised to see a hooded figure, heavily backlit by bright afternoon sunlight, stride up and stand in front of them, hands on hips.
“I’ll wager you weren’t expecting to see me, were you!?” announced the figure, who spoke with a slight but hard-to-place accent.
“I’ll wager you weren’t expecting to see me, were you!?”
The shocked, open-mouthed looks on the faces of the two lovebirds – who were now somewhat afraid, despite being hardened and experienced operators – confirmed that assessment without any ambiguity. As they recognised the identity of this ‘unexpected visitor’, their eyes flashed to their FBI ‘handler’, who simply shrugged but otherwise kept a straight face.
“We have a lot of, ah, history to talk about,” continued the figure from their past as wide eyes narrowed and began looking for escape points as fight or flight instincts began to kick in …
