The Age of Brass: A Spanish AAR

[guillec87]

So if they'd have gotten that before the age of nationalism, they would have stuck with Spain? Or would that have encouraged them to go it alone and be a very small but independent nation power brokering between Spain and France.

I am talking at those times... it happened that centralization in Spain did not follow a federal style... so it started as a quest for autonomy, then Franco dictatorship denied their regional cultures and with 40 years of that, aaaand a very important fact: Basques and Catalans are the wealthiest provinces in Spain... so independence pretty much means economical independece, more than cultural autonomy... money money money

 

[Viden]

So if they'd have gotten that before the age of nationalism, they would have stuck with Spain? Or would that have encouraged them to go it alone and be a very small but independent nation power brokering between Spain and France.

We are stuck with Spain. Everybody here agrees that the artificial (and incomplete) French-style centralization that started in the XVIIIth century has most of the blame for our nationalism. That and the woeful incompetence of the government that has plagued Spain since then (aprox). Even then it had remained a small minority until the economy suffered and the regional political elites used it as smoke curtain.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

We are stuck with Spain. Everybody here agrees that the artificial (and incomplete) French-style centralization that started in the XVIIIth century has most of the blame for our nationalism. That and the woeful incompetence of the government that has plagued Spain since then (aprox). Even then it had remained a small minority until the economy suffered and the regional political elites used it as smoke curtain.

Ireland got out eventually. Most countries that want out of their unions tend to get out eventually. It took us quite a while and I'm sure it's harder in this case cos not only lots of money at stake but direct land borders too...

 

[Viden]

Ireland got out eventually. Most countries that want out of their unions tend to get out eventually. It took us quite a while and I'm sure it's harder in this case cos not only lots of money at stake but direct land borders too...

You are overlooking the fact that most Catalonians do not want to secede. BTW, the Irish case is worthless as example: It is too alien to Catalonian history and circumstances.

Anyhow, this is not the place for this kind of topic and we shall stop it now.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Anyway...

In-game, is there actually a way to get Spain out of this constant civil war cycle and population deficit that doesn't involve conquering france?

 

[RossN]

The Kingdom of Bolivia, October 1884.​

Chapter Twenty Seven: Post-War Spain

On 6 October 1884 as General Heredia's artillery were still bombarding Barcelona the Viceregal government in Bolivia surrendered to the rebels. Even with military assistance from Peru and Chile the pro-Spanish regime in La Plata [1] proved unable to fend off the nationalists and the Viceroy and his government had been forced to escape under cover night, taking isolated roads for the safety of the Brazilian border.

Much like Mexico several years earlier the Bolivian 'revolutionaries' were aggravated conservatives whose quarrel with the old regime was personal rather than ideological. Indeed the now ruling military cabal immediately declared Bolivia an independent monarchy and sent representatives to Europe in search of a royal candidate for the throne [2]. It must be kept in mind that most of Bolivia's neighbours were monarchies. Peru, Ecuador and Chile were in personal union with the Spanish Crown, their relationship with Madrid much like that of Canada or Newfoundland with London. The Empire of Brazil, the greatest power in South America was a prosperous monarchy under the guiding hand of Dom Pedro. Therefore while there probably was some republican feeling left in Bolivia it was more than surpassed by a royalist consensus, supported by the Church and the landowners.

Thankfully Peru and Chile had remained loyal to King Alfonso XII during the Carlist rebellion and their armies still outnumbered whatever Bolivia could raise. Though the government of Antonio Cánovas del Castillo immediately advised the King to declare war on Bolivia it was openly acknowledged in Madrid that Spain herself was in little condition to fight a campaign across the Atlantic. The Peruvians and Chileans would do most of the fighting and, as Cánovas admitted to the King would probably expect to be rewarded for their fidelity either politically via a further rush of autonomy, economically via investment from Spain or both.

A key issue was the position of the viceroy. In practice Peru and Chile (and Ecuador) were governed by local politicians but the viceroys were appointed from Madrid. As part of negotiations with Spain 'Loyalist' leaders like Nicolás de Piérola of Peru and Jorge Mott of Chile were anxious to move these appointments to Lima and Santiago.

The war in South America was not the only foreign crisis luridly splashed across the front pages of Spanish newspapers. In the Orient the Qing Empire, universally held to be corrupt, tyrannical and incompetent was living down to expectations through its inability or unwillingness to combat the Righteous Society of Harmonious Fists, better known as the Boxers. This reactionary society, driven to fury by the failures of the Qing in the face of Western pressures now effectively controlled much of China.

The Chinese Empire in early 1885. Grey hatching indicates areas under direct Boxer control.
​

Popular feeling in Spain was outraged by tales of atrocities inflicted on missionaries and Christian converts in China. Though the Spanish presence in the Orient was minimal, outside the Phillipines and other small island holdings there were a few cases of Spanish priests caught up in the anti-Western hysteria gripping the Heavenly Kingdom. Daily the journals in Madrid and Seville demanded a strong Spanish response.

If anything could be said to unite the politicians of Spain in late 1884 and early 1885 it was their desperation to avoid a war with China. A nation that could not realistically fight to restore authority over the second poorest state in South America was in no position to invade China. There was a fleet at anchor in Manila and a few regiments of soldiers in Luzon but the warships were elederly and the soldiers largely untested by combat. For decades the Philippines had been at peace and as much as that tranquility was appreciated it did not create the conditions for a formidable Spanish military presence in the East.

Fortunately the ongoing conflict in South America allowed Spanish conservatives and liberals to evade the calls for an intervention in China with only some lost prestige [3]. In December 1884 Cánovas had met with Segismundo Moret y Prendergast who had now returned to Madrid and taken up leadership of the liberal royalists and (de facto) the liberal bloc in the Cortes. Though there were sharp differences between the two both agreed that the elections to be held in June should take place in as normal a manner as possible. Both were anxious to put the war behind them and return to some degree of stable constitutional government.

Cánovas was aware that the conservatives had finished second in the last election, lifetime ago that that seemed. He also knew that he had not endeared himself even to Loyalists in the Carlist strongholds by his hardline peace - rumour had it that only the intervention of the King had prevented the Cánovas treating Barcelona as a conquered foreign city subject to martial law as against a liberated part of the Kingdom of Spain. However he also felt that he could rely on strong support from the Alfonsine strongholds who had rallied to the King during the war. The leader of the Moderates sought to portray himself as a stern but proud father figure of the nation.

Moret had not even been in Spain during the war, which was both help and hindrance. Moret obviously could not draw upon the same imagery as the man who 'won the war'. The former Secretary of State was however still popular and respected and he was not tarnished with the failures of the Pedro Duro government which had beleaguered even other prominent liberals like his rival Práxedes Mateo Sagasta. For those, particularly in Catalonia who felt a little Cánovas went a long way even a hawkish liberal centralist like Moret was more appealing.

Despite the best efforts of the participants the June 1885 election was dominated by perceptions of the war overseas rather than domestic construction. There was little actual difference in the stated policies of the conservatives or liberals, both of whom wanted to restore the link of Bolivia and both of whom were happy to fight to the last Peruvian to do it. Still if anyone benefited it was Moret who had made his name as a great diplomat whose presence echoed through the chancellries of Europe.

The election was fought across a hot May, the most important candidates criss-crossing the country by rail to rally the troops before the 6 June and polling day. For the very first time census figures had suggested that a majority of Spaniards were literate, adding a particular punch to the newspapers whose circulations hit dizzying heights [4].

The results of the 1885 election.​

The vote share by province.
​

The result was not all that different from 1876 or 1881. Yet again the Spanish voters had returned a divided parliament, revealing the deep divisions in the country to be ethced in granite. What movement there was saw a dip in the Carlist vote and members, unsurprisingly given the war. If anything the surprise was that they had not fallen further. In Catalonia, outside defiantly Carlist Barcelona, the various liberals were now consolidating the gap between themselves and the conservatives. Here the unpopularity of Cánovas had proved decisive. However elsewhere the opposite had proven true, with the liberal vote actually declining slightly leading to a paradox of both the liberals and the conservatives going up in both share [5].

Cánovas was naturally disappointed but perhaps not surprised and dutifully recommended the King ask Moret to form a government. Alfonso, grateful simply that the elections had taken place without violence was happy to appoint the Progressive leader.

Moret found himself in the same place his predecessor had in 1876. By personal prestige, the faith of the monarch and his leadership of the largest party he was prime minister but he led a rough coalition without an overall majority. At least he could rule out any demands from his republican cohorts for an immediate move against the monarchy. While the long years of Isabella and the disastorous reign of her father and indeed the recent civil war waged by devotees of a different monarch had tarnished the Crown in the eyes of many in Spain there was far too much personal affection for Alfonso for 'soft' republicans to support a campaign against the King.

Perhaps the strongest voice for republicanism in Spain was Francesc Pi i Margall, the leader of the Federal Republicans and a major figure in the Cortes. Pi was a devoted advocate of a federal republic, seeing it as the answer to constant strife between Madrid and the regions. Pi was himsef from Barcelona and saw the constant push for centralisation as as great a problem as the Borbón monarchy. However he found himself faced with opposition from the Republicano Unitario deputies who felt the only problem with Spain was that it was led by a monarch rather than an elected head of state. He also knew that even had such a gap been bridgable many of the people who might support a republic in the abstract still felt that personal loyalty to Alfonso. Under the circumstances he, and most other republicans were prepared to support Moret's royalist government.

With a reasonable degree of unity behind him Moret was left with the thankless task of sheperding Spain through one war, if possible avoiding another and restoring a wounded and divided country. As Summer ran to Autumn the battered Kingdom was beginning to find her feet.

And then the King fell ill.

King Alfonso XII on his deathbed, 25 November 1885.
​

The King's constitution had never been the most robust and he had been assailed by colds throughout his reign, a condition not aided by his physically exhausting tours of Spain. During the course of 1885 it slowly became clear that the monarch was suffering from something worse. The royal doctors diagnosed tuberculosis but anyone who had met the King in recent weeks could have seen it in the pallor of face, the visible pain he suffered while breathing, the weariness that seemed alien to such a young man.

Given the fractured state of Spain the true state of Alfonso's health was not made public until the illness was almost at its final stage. When the truth could be hidden no longer Madrid, always a centre of Alfonsine sentiment lapsed into shock, fear and the first stages of grief. Though the liberal and conservative leaders had discussed bringing in extra troops to the capital in the end they would not be needed. The streets were full of crowds but they milled about, every man and woman lost in their own world of loss.

The dying King had been moved to the Palacio Real de El Prado outside the capital. On 23 November he rallied, briefly raising hopes but by evening he was again lapsing in and out of consciousness. At his request Alfonso's two young daughter's were brought to see him: the five year old María de las Mercedes, Princess of Asturias and the three year old Infanta María Teresa. While the two little girls spent their father's final hours with them a series of anxious conversations were taking place just outside the door. The Queen, Maria Christina of Austria was forced to divide her time between the fading Alfonso and the politicians for whatever happened she would be Regent of Spain.

The problem was that while the Princess of Asturias was legally heir presumptive the Queen was pregnant. If she had a daughter then the Crown would go to María de las Mercedes. However should Maria Christina give birth to a boy that son would become King of Spain. It was becoming more and more clear that the King would not live to see the birth of his third child. Some of those present in the palace could still recall the regency of the other Maria Christina during the endless minority of her daughter. Was Spain to experience a grim reprisal of the same old song?

Despite the wishes and prayers of everyone Alfonso did not recover. On 25 November 1885, three days days shy of his twenty eight birthday the King of Spain slipped away in the presence of his family.

Footnotes:

[1] The city of Sucre, which was renamed after the re-conquest of Bolivia.

[2] 'Viceregal' Bolivia was a 'Presidential Dictatorship' and the Reactionary rebels shifted her into an 'Absolute Monarchy'.

[3] The Boxer Atrocities event fired more than once.

[4] Spain's literacy rate which had been rising since 1836 was 51% by 1885.

[5] The liberals and anarcho-liberals (Partido Progresista, Republicano Federal, Republicano Unitario and Partido Radical) won 47.92% of the vote, the conservatives and reactionaries (Partido Moderado, Unión Liberal and Comunión Carlista) won 41.4% of the vote and the socialists and communists (Partido Socialisa and Federación Regional) won 10.68% of the vote. Note that in these elections the vote was weighted by wealth and if Spain had a universal franchise the conservatives and reactionaries with their stronger working class support might have pushed slightly ahead of the liberals and anarcho-liberals.

 

[RossN]

Surt: Very true. That said it was still pretty bloody on both sides.

darkhaze9: Yes, though as you can see 'intervention' doesn't necessarily mean Spanish troops!

Specialist290: Indeed. I have to say in some ways I prefer the CK2 style of having the rebels create a 'state' of their own.

slothinator: I'm afraid history can be very unfair.

TheButterflyComposer: Unfortunately the Carlists seem to be a threat that lasts and to be fair they didn't go away in real life either. I think the only way to get rid of them altogether is to let them win.

stnylan: Yes. From what I've read he does seem like he was a good king, sadly brief though his reign was.

guillec87 and Viden: I'm sorry, I didn't mean to mischaracterise the historic Carlists. I have to admit to my own ignorance here. Not speaking Spanish it is difficult to find information and easily and coming from Ireland it is kind of hard to grasp the nature of Carlist regionalism in Spain - there isn't really an equivalent in Irish history. I suppose technically speaking Repeal has some similarity but it wasn't complicated by the dynastic feud that gripped Spain.

 

[HIMDogson]

Be interesting if the child was born a girl ITTL due to butterflies; we'd get a different monarch of Spain.

 

[guillec87]

do not worry... it is as if I am going to do an AAR about Albania... mi knowledge there is minimal, not say null

 

[stnylan]

So Alfonso - that unifying figure - passes just as when he might be needed more than ever. I am getting shades of Joseph II dying in 1916.

 

[J_Master]

One can only weep for Spain, for all the misfortune that she receives

 

[Specialist290]

I'm getting echoes of the end of "Camelot" after the Kennedy assassination. A much-beloved leader passes suddenly, leaving the way open for a successor, who, no matter what their actual ability, will never live up to the romantic, much-idealized image of their predecessor.

On top of that, it looks like Spain is slowly yet inexorably being drawn into affairs in the Far East. A paper tiger versus a hobbled and ailing eagle...

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Yeesh. That's a tricky one to deal with. 20th c. Issues are beckoning and spain still feels very austrian anachronism like where the death of the king throws the nation into chaos and Spain remains disturbingly weak despite all the good moves pulled throughout the AAR.

 

[slothinator]

Oh damn... I really jinxed the king with my comment.
Multi-decade regencies are never much good for the monarchy, I fear a republic might start to rear its head over the country

 

[Andreios II]

Ohhhhh dear this is not good at all! Slothinator makes a good point that another long regency will not be good for the Spanish Monarchy. Without an adult monarch able to communicate and liaise with their people, the metaphysical link between the Spanish people and their king/queen will start to weaken and fade away. Will also be interesting to see the gender of the third child and how that will affect things. In any case, a by-product of the weakness of the monarchy (and Spain generally) I can see happening is the cementing of the Canada-esque relationship between the South American 'dominions' and Spain proper.

The Spanish electorate do indeed seem to be greatly dug into their respective camps with little movement. It's good to see the divisions between the republicans brought to life. Personally I would tend to agree with the Federalist Republicans that the only way to end the strife between Madrid and the regions long term will be devolution, but I can't see them being in a position to implement that program for a while, or perhaps it will be co-opted by another party capable of doing so.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Honestly spain is probably done at this point. A few more rebellions and civil wars as the regency goes on, and then the game ends. Don't think much more will happen, unless they declare a republic. Then MAYBE something daft like super buddying up to france and getting some land vack in africa anr italy to block off austria.

 

[Telcharinogrod]

With literacy seriously rising, there's a solid chance Spain can turn it's economy around for the rubber-and-oil-boom and become a serious player on the world stage. Otherwise I agree, they're not going to get anywhere except survival.

 

[RossN]

I have to admit the constant Carlist revolts are beginning to seriously damage my enjoyment of this game. I've played ahead to 1888 and despite Spain actually being in good shape domestically I've already had two more Carlist revolts - one relatively small, but one pretty big. I understand that Carlism was a persistent philosophy but this is ridiculous.

 

[J_Master]

Just accept the fact that the future is Carlistic

 

[Surt]

What are the Carlists political goals, only restoring a Carlist as king?