Talking Turkey: Alternate History from 1936

[Bullfilter]

In fact I was trying to remind our comrades about the self imposed handicap, but got carried away about the reason why he thought in rp terms we aren’t using the generals

Haha, got it. And your in-game avatar was the exception to the rule.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

I believe that we are all forgetting an important point, which is that these generals formerly in the service of other militaries happen to have been in the service of militaries which we rather soundly defeated. Really now, why should we allow such second-tier losers to command our Glorious forces??

 

[racebear75]

Well, so no Tito or Metaxas commanding troops of the Union...

 

[Bullfilter]

Thanks so much everyone for the comments and Cabinet Submissions so far. I will be turning to consideration and write up of the Cabinet meeting and May/Timisoara Day commemorations soon. Given the size, scale and complexity of the feedback (and so as not to spoil decision announcements in the chapter), I won’t be doing do a detailed ‘traditional’ point by point feedback, but will cover all the key points and make acknowledgments in the meeting minutes.

And of course, once issued, we can then discuss/debate any contentious or interesting points subsequently.

 

[Bullfilter]

Chapter 198: Strategic War Cabinet Meeting (1 May 1943)

AuthAAR’s Notes: I’m handling the discussion as inter-departmental coordination comments incorporating the various submissions, some quoted (occasionally abridged but not changed, for space), some noted. If I tried to do it all as an in-character Cabinet discussion, it would just be too huge! The Cabinet’s decisions are at the end.

This is a large and detailed chapter, as there was much to cover and includes quite a bit of quoted comments, arranged by topic. For those who hanker after all the gory detail (and for the bulk of the selective comment feedback), spoilers are used. If you just want the key discussions and decisions, you can leave them unopened. But then you’ll never know what the various departments thought of the arguments …

Timisoara/May Day commemorations will follow in the next chapter, after the Cabinet Meeting breaks up. And there will be some special guests and entertainment.

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Introduction

Dolmabahçe Palace, viewed from the Bosphorus, venue for the War Cabinet Meeting of 1 May 1943.

The Blue Room, Dolmabahçe Palace. It was reconfigured on 1 May 1943 to accommodate a full Cabinet Meeting, with a large oval table in the middle for the Cabuinet members and officials, advisors and secretariat staff seated in chairs on the sides.​

Before the Cabinet entered their special Istanbul meeting room at the Dolmabahçe Palace, they paused for a rendition by a special choir of the patriotic 10.Yıl Marşı (10th Year March), commissioned in 1933 to commemorate the 10th Anniversary of the Republic and sung again here, during its 20th year in 1943.

(2:39)
Many thanks to @diskoerekto for finding and providing this link. To get you into the mood!​

As the Cabinet filed into the Blue Room, a picture on the wall noted a fond memory of the Father Turk during his time at the palace in 1934.

Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, shooting at the Dolmabahçe Palace in 1934.

The Turkish War Cabinet on 1 May 1943. Field Marshal Calistar also attended as Supreme Commander and Deputy War Minister.

Cabinet Agenda for 1 May 1943.

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Item 1 - The Strategic Aims of the War​

1A. Overall Strategic Goals.

Europe and North Africa on 1 May 1943.

Patriotic Front dispositions, as at 2300 hr 30 April 1943.​

“Gentlemen,” began Celal Bayar, running the meeting as Prime Minister, sitting at President Inönü’s right hand. “The first key question to be resolved regards Turkey’s grand strategic aims for victory in the current war. From this flows everything else. I remind you that these are not necessarily the same as for the Comintern as a whole or those the USSR may adopt in addition to our specific national aims, though they will feed into and complement the wider Comintern objectives.”

Foreign Minister Aras nodded and Bayar continued. “I refer you all to the consideration comment notes derived from the submissions of all your departments and from interested contributors who have offered their insights. These synthesise the main points of discussion and the consensus position the Government has reached on them.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 1

The primary issue is essentially this: is the aim a New Comintern World Order [the 12 victory objectives, which I've deliberately tied myself to in the AAR 'house rules'] or Domination/Total Victory [the full 15]? As noted in the background Cabinet material, the former could (but does not have to be) achieved by gaining all objectives currently on offer in Europe, plus Spain and Finland.

It is the President’s firm view that the often-stated policy of Turkey and the Glorious Union is limited to the New Order, which will very likely be most quickly and easily achieved by a victory in Europe, including the absorption of Spain and Finland into the Comintern, by whatever means necessary (diplomacy, subversion or war). The latter, whether it means drawing Britain into the war or not (though it will be avoided if possible.

The firm advocacy of some contributors (@diskoerekto, @roverS3) to expand these aims to Asia and specifically the defeat of Axis Japan are noted and respected, but are not agreed in this context. The USSR may wish to pursue this line separately, but it is seen to be beyond both Turkey’s direct national interests and the previously agreed basis of the alliance with the Soviet Union, as supported by other contributors (@nuclearslurpee).

Spoiler: OOC/RL Considerations

There are OOC factors here: any war in Japan would be reliant primarily on the USSR AI. It would take a long time. It would be beyond the scope of the game and AAR as stated right up front. In this game, the Soviets are even further back in the East than in my Quick and Dirty game, where Germany is already defeated and I am directly guiding the Soviet forces, albeit via the AI at Army level.

So in my view it would take forever, even if I switched to the Soviets. And I’m already doing that kind of campaign in Q&D and really don’t want to do it again, plus that would be departing too far from the basis of this AAR. And I want it to finish some time, as I have lots of other HOI3 projects I’d like to get going. What I might consider when the time comes is going ‘off line’ to play the game through and then do a ‘post-war’ broad summary of what happened and epilogue.

Aras continued: "There is general agreement in the Central Agencies that the defeat of Germany (for operational and victory condition purposes) is the primary Comintern aim for the war, but one which Turkey would seek to support more indirectly through its actions in the Balkans and the Mediterranean. Specifically, the long-time Turkish objective to fight and conquer Italy, bringing its constituent parts into the UGNR remains a prime strategic driver for the UGNR. That therefore makes any capabilities required to support that integral to research, procurement and production policies." (@nuclearslurpee, @TheButterflyComposer)

"As mentioned in background material, bringing France into the Comintern is desirable (on general terms and as a gateway to Spain) but not necessary. It is therefore not a driver of Turkish acquisition policy."

"Quite, Aras," agreed Bayar. "The same applies to Britain: trying to match them in naval power in this war is considered not viable and will not be a force determinant. In fact, it is hoped war with them can be avoided altogether." (eg @TheButterflyComposer)

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 2

Though we are assuming the in-game absolute commitment of the US to the Comintern cause via game mechanics as having altered what would be OTL concerns in that regard, and post-game hypotheticals will not affect force determination for this war. If war with Britain becomes necessary as a last resort, British naval dominance in the Mediterranean would have to be accepted as a short-term given until victory was attained (and/or Gibraltar and the Suez Canal could be put under Comintern control). Also, given the US would be part of the Comintern in such a contingency, British naval power should be distracted and mitigated more generally, especially if Japan remains in the war at that point, making it a three-cornered global conflict.

“I therefore propose,” resumed Bayar after a brief discussion, “that we re-affirm the existing Turkish Strategic War Aim of attaining a Comintern World Order victory, primarily to be achieved in Europe.” This went through on the nod with no dissension around the table.

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1B. Spain and Finland

“That brings us to Spain and Finland,” said Bayar, moving down his annotated agenda. “Aras, please summarise the position.”

“With pleasure, Prime Minister. As foreshadowed and confirmed above, Spain and Finland must be brought into the Comintern to achieve Turkey’s primary war aims. This question was not without dissenting opinions, mainly directed at those urging a more global Turkish contribution to the entire war aims of the Comintern and advocating for the complete defeat of the Axis in Asia. That separate issue will be dealt with in more detail a little later.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 3

Persuasive comments and arguments made included:

From Italy, and once Germany is defeated, we should pursue parallel operations against Finland and Spain with our Soviet counterparts.

Well Finland is fairly easily done. Probably wouldn't even require force really (ingame of course) if done after the collapse of the Axis. Taking Spain would require either or more likely both France to be controlled by a friendly communist government backed by the soviets and turkey to control the Italian peninsula.

Strategically, we do need to think broadly about the stance we are in, and using that stance to get us to a different edge to set up for operations in Iberia and Finland. Those nations are not by any stretch friendly, and are sympathizers to the Axis cause. Their destruction must be obtained; but Finland can wait until our Soviet brethren have reduced the pocket in the Baltics and Leningrad significantly but before they move those forces out of the area. Iberia must therefore be our football, and advancing it should be how we organize and train our forces. The longer we wait, however, the more of a chance those nations will not turn to the Axis, but will join the Allies and draw in the collapsing Commonwealth. A balancing act to be sure.

Diplomacy: I believe it is unlikely we will be able to convince Nationalist Spain or Finland to join the Comintern…

While it would be ideal to wait on Spain and Finland until Japan is taken down, there is frankly no guarantee that Japan can be defeated anytime soon - the naval logistics required to mount an invasion of the home islands seem well beyond the physical and...creative capabilities of our allies, sadly. Meanwhile, time is of the essence, as with European Axis influence destroyed there would be little stopping Spain or Finland from seeking alliance with the United Kingdom due to shared anti-Comintern sentiment. We must strike while the iron is hot, and the troops are in-theater.

We really do need to invade these guys. Change the government, bring them into the comintern and if we can, under Turkey's sphere of influence.

“It is our position,” continued Aras, “that if it becomes necessary or desirable to go to war with either of these countries before the war against the Axis in Europe is concluded, Turkey will urge [ie compel in-game] the Comintern to do so. This may be for diplomatic (aligning too closely to the Allies) or operational reasons (to strike before the Soviets divert too many forces to the East).”

“I propose that this contingency should be incorporated into Turkish force determination priorities, for capabilities and the timing of their introduction. Finland, as contributors noted, will be left to the Soviets. But the ability of Turkey to lead operations against Spain, with or without land access via France, must be considered (with naval, marine and air power implications).”

This recommendation was agreed.

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 4

Other impacts on this matter regarding Spain and Finland (and Vichy France) included:

If Japan already finished the British Raj and facing us off there, redeploy and start fighting that war that would take us all the way until Southeast Asia. If the Japs are still on their way, bide our time in Europe by declaring war on and beating any number of European non-Axis member fascists.

Comment: It is considered unlikely that the complete fall of India would occur before victory in Europe is achieved. But, if it does occur, it would require the diversion of enough land forces to secure the shortest and strongest viable defensive line possible in Afghanistan and Iran, hopefully with some Soviet assistance. But this eventuality will not be a force determinant for planning purposes. Trying to fight through India to South East Asia will not be contemplated.

On reservations about attacking either Spain or Finland:

I think attacking Finland might be a mistake. Better if we can do it diplomatically, because the west will object to it (how strongly will probably be down to the RNG) whereas with Spain i don't think they will. That being said, if we launch an invasion of Spain after the end of the war in Europe, we can hardly expect Stalin to not launch a similar attack on Finland at the same time. It's just doing so will make us look worse than going purely after facist regimes. Or rather, doing so might be the break that ends with the Americans leaving the Comintern, at least I think would in universe, which is not something we want them to do until after Japan is defeated.

Comment: As previously stated [per game mechanics, which drive the story, not OTL or ‘realistic’ considerations, however logical], US affiliation is considered rock solid. And unless either Finland or Spain has actually joined the Allies at that point, any British reaction to an attack on either will be disregarded as either irrelevant, or a necessary risk to achieve the principal war aims, and perhaps before the defeat of the Axis in Europe has been achieved. As @diskoerekto states, “even though they're not in Axis, both Spain and Finland (and Vichy France and Portugal and maybe some Chinese warlords) are also Fascist”.

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1C. Other Considerations - Asia

The Far Eastern Front, as at 2300 hr 30 April 1943.

South East Asia and New Guinea, as at 2300 hr 30 April 1943.​

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 5

Some argued strongly for a Total Victory approach (@diskoerekto, @roverS3), including the complete defeat of the Axis in Asia – principally Japan. For example:

The only acceptable issue to the war here is for the vast majority of current Axis real estate to end up under the influence of Comintern members. Most importantly, the current Comintern must be in control of Japan, Germany, and Italy. The quickest way to get there is probably by having the USSR focus on Berlin, the UGNR on Rome, and the USA on Japan…. Within the aforementioned framework and considering the current state of the war, the UGNR and the USSR must be the ones to liberate all, or the vast majority, of Axis-occupied Europe, as well as all Soviet Territory currently under Japanese control.

Comment: The overall point is accepted re Germany and Spain but per earlier arguments, while the US will be left to look after Japan, its defeat will not be a core Turkish war aim. And hence, the eventuality that Spain and/or Finland might even be attacked before the war in Europe is over. If Japanese forces reach the UGNR's Eastern Border in Pakistan, they will be stopped, but no easily reachable victory objective could be achieved by a major Turkish offensive in India or Asia. In fact, if attempted before [12 objective] victory in Europe, it would only delay the successful conclusion of the war.

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1D. Operational Force Determinants

Supreme Commander Field Marshal Calistar was next to speak.

“As agreed, operational implementation will not be discussed in detail at this Cabinet meeting, but some broad capability requirements need to be drawn from how the agreed strategic objectives would be achieved (@nuclearslurpee). This is agreed. Some guidance on this aspect has been provided.”

"Immediate offensives will need to be achieved with the force-in-being and already queued production. The short- to mid-term term posture will be (as currently) to conduct as many as the overall operational situation allows – there is no fixed number or size of such operations planned. That is, a careful but aggressive approach, primarily with ground units and demanding both defensive and offensive air support.”

"A secondary capability, already under development, for a limited amphibious capability will complement this. Whatever the detail of their deployment (an argument for another day as to whether it is Sicily, the Italian Peninsula, then later Sardinia or Spain) transports, landing craft, a compact naval escort, air cover, a marine spearhead and follow-up forces to security and exploitation would be required. Most of these capabilities already exist or are under development: their continuation will be a contributing force determinant, for an operation any time from mid-1943 onwards, if possible, as indicated in past strategic discussions.” (NB: @roverS3, @diskoerekto, @GangsterSynod)

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Item 2 – Procurement Priorities​

“As wise men say, gentlemen, there is no strategy without money or resources,” resumed Bayar. “It now comes time to decide how we will implement our aims. The ways and means to the ends. Üngen, please start this discussion by guiding the naval component of this discussion and submit your bids.”

2A. Navy

“From the strategic guidance provided,” began the Chief of Navy, “naval requirements revolve around deploying and protecting small amphibious landings against Italy (in general) and Spain against whatever naval or air capacity either country may be able to deploy. If Britain was hostile at that stage, such operations would most likely not be seriously considered, so will not be planned for, as it would not be feasible for Turkey to do so. A land route for both would need to be used instead.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 6

Some considerations from submissions:

we can anticipate that our land forces will be more or less fully-matured by this stage both as described above by myself and in terms of using spare IC to fill out some of the smaller divisions with fifth brigades or battalions. Thus, our principal concern beyond the near future is maritime in nature.

Comment: This is agreed. Force requirements along the lines described above therefore need to be procured.

Arguments proposed for this structure include:

the procurement of two modern Light Cruisers, via license building, from the USA which will lead our present group of modern Destroyers to form an "escort fleet" which is able to escort transport flotillas on littoral missions, i.e. amphibious invasions of Italy and eventually Spain. This escort fleet will act as the core of our modern fleet, while the WWI-vintage vessels we still possess can augment the escort fleet with firepower e.g. for shore bombardment or minor combat operations, or else serve as secondary commerce patrols.

Here I will reiterate the need for a modern Light Cruisers. In the short term development, let alone construction, of capital ships should still take a backseat. These CL's aren't just investments for the long term, they could function in tandem with the modern Destroyers to protect convoys and scout potential naval invasion locations.

I would recommend that at least some naval effort is made…. two new CLs, three new destroyer squadrons and perhaps a trio of submarine squadrons should make our forces at least pertinent in the Mediterranean.

Comment: The Navy has agreed these proposals are reasonable. They would prefer at least one, if possible two US-designed CLs to be license-built. Another destroyer flotilla would be appreciated, but not if it came at the expense of the first CL. However, with the US and British navies active in the Mediterranean, Italian naval power virtually destroyed and no naval operations against Japan envisaged, they would not advocate pursuing submarine purchases above other mid-term acquisition priorities.

In addition to these, I recommend expanding our transport fleet from three flotillas to six, which will be capable of transporting a full corps of infantry in a single amphibious operation. This represents five naval construction orders in total, in addition to completing the current DD order, which is quite substantial. However, these ships would be the clear lowest priority in my proposal, only ahead of "filler" projects such as fifth-brigade and infrastructure orders.

Comment: A large enough transport/landing craft lift capacity to sustain a corps-sized lodgement capacity is considered highly desirable by the Navy to sustain the kind of operations demanded by the strategic aims. These will be added to Navy’s procurement bid.

On capital ships (BC, CA, CV/L etc):

When we see the end of the great war against Axis plus other Axis leaning nations, we can start building local zero-tech CVs along with license building most recent LCs and CAGs.

In case Turkey has to fight the Japs on it's own Eastern front, naval convoys into Persia will be vital to supply a large force. An increase in the size of the Turkish Merchant Navy should also be on the table as the UGNR expands, and once the European victory is a done deal, attention should go to the development of Turkish capital ships, whether you go with CA's or CV's.

Comment: Any capital ship research (required first) and then procurement for possible post-war contingencies or war against Japan is considered beyond the scope of this current Cabinet process. Had it been possible to purchase licenses, the capability might have been considered as a lower, longer term priority.

“The Navy has made the following bid for this round of procurement priorities,” finished Üngen.

* 1-2 CL (US License).

* 1 more DD (US License).

* Up to 3 TPT or LC.

* The manpower requirement is up to 6,000 men. [6 MP ‘by the HOI3 book’].

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2B. Air Force

“Thank you, Üngen,” said Bayar. “We will decide overall priorities at the end of this meeting. Air Force is next. As you all know, expansion of the Air Force has been a key procurement priority for some time now, driven by battlefield experience and anticipated future operational requirements. This will continue for the foreseeable future. Over to you, Örlungat.”

“Many thanks,” said a pleased Chief of Staff and Air Force. “It is therefore a matter of proposing force structure objectives by unit type, with the obsolescence of existing airframes a supplementary consideration. The current and in-production assets have been summarised by Professor Slorepee, if you turn to the coordination comments.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 7

With current production we will have 7 INT, 4 MR, 2 CAS, and 4 TAC which have been proven adequate to contest Axis air power quite admirably given the secondary nature of the Balkan theater in Axis war planning. Our goal should be to expand this force to accomplish local air superiority in support of a ground offensive.

Comment: The operational requirement for this is agreed. It should include the ability to provide viable fighter escort for short-distance naval landings in Italy/Sicily, if such are required. The question remains the number, type and currency of airframes required to achieve this. Prof Slorepee again:

To this end I expect an expansion of the fighter wings to reach 12 INT and 6 MR, arrayed in six groups of three wings apiece. This allows interceptor cover over two battlefields, or operationally two supported axes of attack, with reserve groups to allow cycling of air wings to maintain continual air presence and control. Additionally the MR wings can be deployed for long-range air superiority i.e. control of the skies over enemy air bases to suppress counter-interceptions. To support the ground forces, a total of 8 TAC will be ideal to permit a similar pattern of two active air groups supporting offensives and two reserve groups to allow cycling.

Comment: This proposal would require considerable construction effort. Timing to reach the ultimate target (of whatever is agreed) can be determined as part of the wider procurement timetable, as will relative priorities between the services and equipment types. But this proposal would require up to five more INT, two MR and four TAC wings. Variations for quantities include:

I'd agree with Dr. Slurpee in at least four state-of-the-art interceptor groups being necessary to blunt the enemy air forces, and a pair of tactical bomber groups.

I'd say at least 6 and preferably 8 interceptor wings before for example naval purchases

“The Air Force has therefore submitted the following bid for consideration," said Örlungat with some confidence, "all numbers are in addition to current and queued wings:”

* 5 new INT wings, or 4 new plus complementary domestic modernisation research (see below for separate research proposals) [4-5 MP].

* A minimum of 2, preferably 4 new TAC wings [3.2 to 6.4 MP].

* Manpower requirement: 7,200 to 11,400 men [5.2 to 11.4 MP ‘by the book’], depending on final numbers and possible Hawk III disbandment offset.

* Desirable (below-the-line): one more CAS wing. They would also like a NAV capability, but acknowledge it to be beyond currently feasible procurement policies.

“I note also that on our Air Force research proposal, the opinions of contributors were mixed.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 8

It would be a great idea if we can spare some! In time we'll have an aerospace industry. İstikbal göklerdedir!

I can't say I'm hugely in favor of air force research at this time. Anything we produce domestically will be vastly inferior to what we can purchase licenses for, and this will be the case at least through the end of the war. Even if we need to replace our oldest aircraft with newer models, license building remains a superior alternative in the context of the present war. For the long term, of course we would like to develop domestic capabilities, but one war at a time here!

The proposal to start improving old Turkish Airframes is another way to improve the Air Force that would be beneficial. Maybe allocate one research slot to Aeroplane research and see where that gets you, starting, of course, with Aero engines. I would push for a narrow focus on single Engine Aeroplanes, though, at least until Turkish homegrown fighters become somewhat competitive. This is also an insurance policy, just in case licenses become too expensive or simply unavailable. Turkey could then consider building home-grown CAS to complement it's INT, and it's stock of Tac, with little additional research needed.

License-building seems like a better use of the resources we have. Really, I think we need to focus on a better air force.

“In light of these views, the Air Force wishes to keep its research proposal in play, subject to a more detailed review of how much more research would be required to update Turkey’s oldest equipment (Hawk III, I-16 and LaGG-3). Doctrine research is a separate matter. A value-for-money assessment could then be made regarding the research budget. If not approved, they would advocate demobilising the current Hawk III wing, adding one new interceptor wing to the procurement list as detailed in their acquisition bid.”

Bayar put this motion to the vote, which was carried with no objections (though there were a few dubious looks from the Army and Navy Chiefs).

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2C. Army & Manpower

“Army priorities and manpower considerations are inextricably intertwined,” said Bayar, introducing the next discussion topic. “The Army remains the largest and most critical component of the Turkish Armed Forces. The issue is whether more or upgraded units in addition to those deployed or queued are now actually required to prosecute the rest of the war. If they are, the next consideration would be whether there is sufficient manpower (and supply infrastructure) to sustain a larger force until the end of the War in Europe. Yamut, you have the floor.”

“Thank you, Prime Minister,” started the Chief of Army. “On a possible increase in size for the Army, there were a number of proposals.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 9

Views were varied, depending in part on how the manpower situation was interpreted.

my proposal is to train a wave of lighter INF divisions which can be deployed in 3-4 months to replace existing, heavier or more-experienced line divisions or to function as reserves to free up mobile formations currently functioning as "fire brigades" behind the current defensive lines. To accomplish this I recommend training 4-6 light INF divisions in parallel with the aim of executing a moderate-scale redeployment of forces in mid-August to prepare for a Fall offensive. These could be INF/INF (plus ART and/or AT) or 3xINF (with no support brigades), depending on which division design best suits the present need (this would require anywhere from 28,000 to 54,000 manpower, which I will address below). Note that either structure can be expanded to a full 5-brigade division (INF/INF/INF/ART/AT) later on as needed. These should cost not more than 10 IC/day per division and I expect completion in ~3 months. My nominal recommendation here is to train a full corps (5x) of INF/INF/AT divisions (total 35 MP), to provide bodies on the line and extra AT capability as German armor is the primary threat to any reduced are of the front line.

Secondly, we must expand our ground offensive capabilities which means of course the mechanized forces. Here I will assume, in lieu of exact numbers having been provided, that an ARM division will cost about 35 IC/day over 6 months (210 IC-months) and a MOT division about 22 IC/day over 5 months (110 IC-months). I will also assume that these divisions will not be commenced until the INF divisions described in phase (1) are completed and deployed to the front. My recommendation here is that once the INF divisions are completed we should be able to, fairly sustainably if not with 100% uptime, train one of each division type in parallel at any time for the following 12-15 months, ultimately resulting in deployment of 2 ARM and 3 MOT divisions which will form an offensive corps, hopefully by Sept 1944. As with the air force this could be accelerated if additional IC is available, but otherwise this represents a continual demand of ~57 IC/day on Turkish industry in addition to the ~40 IC/day required by the highest priority which is air force construction. While this need not be fully met at all times, I believe we are capable of maintaining a ~100 IC/day production pace fairly reliably even with recent reductions in lend-lease aid.

Other than interceptors and some MR fighters (hopefully soon jet versions of them), we can spare some IC into high value license built mobile units such as armor, SPArt etc or upgrading militia/garrison/infantry units into mountaineer/marine/motorized/mechanized (we're one tech away from building homegrown mechanized units). The numbers of our air wings is also misleading because we're not able to upgrade them. So when making calculations we have to take into account they're from different years with no way to upgrade.

we should definitely look into ensuring a continued stream of production of medium and heavy armor…. and should look into turning a higher percentage of the ground pounders into a motorized force. Once the walls of the Axis armies collapse, we are going to need to cover significant amounts of territory rapidly.

On the subject of adding new Divisions to the Army, I don't share other adviser's enthusiasm for pushing all our manpower reserves into new formations, for several reasons:

1. Manpower. Turkey is currently loosing more men than it can replace. These losses are concentrated in the Divisions that are actually fighting these bold offensives. That means that, if there are no manpower reserves, these losses cannot be fully replaced without disbanding other formations. Alternatively, Turkey can also slow down it's operations to minimise losses, or enact longer pauses between offensives, thereby lengthening the war. Neither of these outcomes is desirable. Turkey's ability to be very agressive and get results is directly linked to it's ability to replace losses quickly.

2. Leadership. Turkey already has a shortage of General's, adding more Divisions will only make this problem worse, especially when you add the need for more HQ's to control these Divisions. Diluting available officers amongst too many Divisions also goes against the current style of Turkish warfare.

This doesn't mean you can't add new Divisions, only that strengthening and/or upgrading current Divisions should take precedence. I would advocate for a conservative estimate to be made on how much Turkish manpower will be needed to win this war in Europe. Paired with an optimistic timeline, you can then calculate how much manpower Turkey can really spare. To close the gap between the losses and the replacements, both Agriculture research and a more potent Air Force will have a significant impact. The Divisions we do add must provide as much firepower & mobility as possible, for their allocated manpower. Or they should have specific capabilities. (eg. Marines, Paratroopers, Mountaineers). I would suggest trying to keep at least 40 MP on hand by the end of the year to allow enough flexibility to engage in high risk high reward strategies that inevitably end in high casualties, but have the potential to take a lot of ground and take many prisoners.

Comment: On manpower, a detailed discussion continued (not reproduced here, for space considerations). The consensus of the War Ministry and Army is that the coming months will, with a sustained offensive effort where possible, see similar levels of manpower usage as experienced recently (that is, a small net monthly loss after new recruits are incorporated). However, after that either casualties should decrease due to weakening enemy resistance across the entire front, improved fighter coverage and an increase to the recruiting base through agricultural reform. If this is not the case, operational tempo would be reduced for the period required to rebalance reserves and ensure attrition is sustainable.

A minimum working manpower reserve of no less than 20,000 men, to allow for higher than expected casualties or emergency builds, is considered necessary. This would allow for the approval of new units (of all services) with a manpower requirement of up to a maximum of around 50,000 men for the remainder of 1943 and forward. This limit, in additional to industrial capacity, will be used to determine at what point the ‘cut-off’ is applied to the approved acquisition priority list.

In other words, more projects are likely to be approved in-principle than there is capacity or manpower to construct. Each will be roughly ranked by capacity and urgency, with fine adjustments made for best use of capacity at any one time, or changes in priority. Regarding divisional leadership shortages, this is accepted as a constant for the Turkish Army. Key formations and HQs will be prioritised as they have been to date. It will not be considered as any limitation to building whatever divisions are considered necessary. (@nuclearslurpee, @roverS3)

On specific requirements, the Army has already been producing ‘light divisions’ designed to hold quiet areas of the line, or to supplement regular divisions to release them for active operations. Three are in production and the current design concept has not yet been tested on the ground. More broadly, as the wider front advances and Hungary is defeated, it is anticipated that the entire Patriotic Front will shorten as the ‘bulge’ centred on Hungary is eliminated and filled largely by Soviet and Romanian forces. This should mean a decreasing requirement for such light or second-line units. It may be there are already enough such or soon will be.

In addition, with the destruction of Italy’s already limited naval landing capacity, as mentioned by some correspondents and already recognised by the Chief of Army in his continuing militia upgrade program, more garrison units currently being held in Mediterranean ports should be released for redeployment or conversion, thus saving on manpower for new regular or specialised units (if so, these upgrades would be considered ‘manpower neutral’ against the overall 50,000 man planning limit).

Yamut resumed his presentation: “Army considers that, with the three USMC expeditionary divisions and the 1st Turkish Marine Division, we already have sufficient specialist formations to spearhead up to two simultaneous or consecutive amphibious assaults, with follow-up forces being conventional units selected according to the requirement of the target areas. No more marine units are therefore sought in the short term.”

“With three full specialist mountain divisions, the Army considers that to satisfy the minimum requirement but, given terrain north of the Balkans, in Italy and in Spain, one more full mountain division would be desirable. The one marine brigade still in production may be attached to a ‘regular’ division to assist with river-crossing tasks.”

“In terms of armour, if possible a gradual increase in the allocation of heavy brigades as infantry support tanks is considered a high priority: these may be expensive, but have proved winners on the battlefield.”

“The Army would like one more ‘medium’ and one more ‘light’ armoured or mechanised divisions to complement existing formations. The detailed make-up of these formations would be determined subsequently but would be based on one tank (LARM or ARM as required), one-two INF (MOT or MECH) SPArt and one or two more support brigades. All new divisions would be five-brigade outfits, to maximise command coverage.”

“Army’s provisional bid, reserving the right for adjustments due to developing operational conditions, is as follows.”

*1-2 HARM bdes [4.66 MP].

*1 x Light Armd Div (1 x LARM, 1-2 x MOT/MECH, 1 x SP RArt, 1-2 support bdes – AC, MotAA, TD) [12 MP].

*1 x Medium Armd Div (1 x ARM, 2 x MOT/MECH, 1 x SP Arty, 1 x ENGR, AC or TD) [12 MP].

*1 Mtn Div (5 x MTN) [20 MP].

*Total estimated manpower requirement: approximately 40,000 men [but 48.66 MP per ‘the book’]. Could be offset if upgrades can be used for infantry-based units.

---xxx---​

2D. Priority allocation

“I will now hand over to our President, as War Minister, to address the issue of priorities for the various bids, and ultimately which projects will be practically feasible," said Bayar with understated deference.

“Thank you, Bayar,” began Inönü. “You will all have considered the thoughts of contributors on the relative priorities.”

Spoiler: Coordination Comments 10

I do not believe any serious or significant naval expenditure can be justified at this time. Whilst it is true a naval force would be very useful for longer-term strategic initiatives against Spain, I essentially come from the following position …. Aircraft will be of use in current endeavours, and will retain the same utility in future endeavours. There isn't much manpower to expand the army, but where possible this should still be done…. Therefore I would argue production must necessarily focus towards the Glorious Airforce. And to that end, what army expansion is possible should be more towards non-vehicular units to allow as great a focus on the aeronautical.

In short. In my opinion the production priorities right now should be:

Interceptors first. Upgrades and reinforcement of existing units second. Tac's third. Naval transports fourth. Light Cruisers fifth. New Divisions sixth.

Item 2: Our first priority should be creating an air force on par with our enemies'. The majority of our IC should go into that for the foreseeable future. By the time some of our troops are in Lisbon and some in Hong Kong (and our nation contiguous), we can start building ships.

Comment: there may be more manpower room for army expansion than initially assessed here, but the Air Force priority for effort is well noted.

A counter-point to Air Force first proponents, argued principally by Prof Slorepee::

I recommend that we dedicate all of this [available] manpower to the construction of new formations, albeit not all at once (and realistically, a small reserve of 3-5 MP should be maintained for forming field HQs when necessary). My reasoning is: (1) it does us the most benefit at this stage to deploy all available force to the front rather than holding a MP reserve for unseen future needs, since as it is clear that the Axis can no longer win this war on any front thus we no longer need to account for the most desperate circumstance as we did in 1941; (2) historical analysis indicates that we can comfortably reinforce all units, including attritional losses, in "peaceful" period when no major offensives are launched by us; (3) In the case of a major offensive exhausting our MP beyond what we can regularly generate, it is acceptable to prioritize reinforcing the offensive divisions and permit line divisions in secondary sectors with low activity to be temporarily under-strength, as combat power is not appreciably reduced for these divisions relative to their defensive mission at that time. Deploying all available manpower to the field now maximizes our offensive capability and also the pressure placed on the beleaguered Axis armies. In the worst case that we require additional manpower to be made available to train units (notably the mechanized forces of Phase 2), militia or garrison brigades of tertiary importance can be disbanded and their constituent manpower retrained and repurposed.

My proposal is summarized into three phases, as follows:

1. Short-term (1 May to 30 Nov 1943): consolidate, hold the line, and launch a Fall offensive. Strategically, the goal here is to enter into Hungary and accelerate if not outright force their collapse. Production targets: 5x INF/INF/AT divisions to replace existing veteran line divisions and indirectly augment our offensive capabilities by Sept 1943.
2. Near future (1 Dec 1943 to 30 Sep 1944): launch 2-4 successive offensives against dwindling Axis presence and capabilities. Strategically, the goal here is to collapse Hungary, recover our pre-war UGNR borders, and push into Austria and Italy in concert with Soviet pushes through Poland and Slovakia. Production targets: 3x INT, 1x MR, 2x TAC wings as high priorities; 2x ARM divisions and 3x MOT divisions as secondary priorities.
3. Mid future (1 Oct 1944 to 31 Dec 1945): launch ground offensives into Italy and Germany (simultaneously) and amphibious operations against Italy and Spain (successively). Strategically, the goal here is primarily to collapse the European Axis and otherwise to reach all European victory conditions and declare the new world order in the West. Production targets: 2x CL and 3x Transport Flotillas to enable amphibious operations and other maritime strategic aims.

These goals I believe are the best path forward for our Glorious Union and will surely grant us victory along with the superb efforts of our brilliant commanders and brave soldiers in all branches and theaters. Vur ha!!

Comment: while the operational implementation will be decided subsequently, the linking of procurement choices to operational requirements in general is acknowledged as most important.

"We will therefore move straight onto final decisions on provisional production priorities."

---xxx---

Item 3 - Cabinet Decisions​

After some further discussion, but based on inter-departmental coordination already largely done prior to the formal Cabinet meeting, the decisions already taken on Item 1 were clarified and formalised.

Item 1

1. The Europe-first limited Turkish war aim [12 objectives] is re-affirmed.​

​

2. Spain and Finland will be required to join the Comintern – voluntarily or (most likely) by force – to achieve this aim.​

​

3. Italy will be the primary Turkish operational objective for the next phase of the war.​

​

4. The secondary objective will remain assisting the Comintern as a whole to defeat Hungary and Germany, directly or indirectly though Turkey’s contribution to the war effort.​

​

5. The possible conquest of Spain (by land through France and/or via sea) is accepted as a force determinant.​

Item 2

“Our discussions have led us to the following consensus decisions regarding Item 2,” said Bayar, who then proceeded to put each decision to the formal vote.

6. All service bids as offered will be accepted for initial prioritisation (meaning all will be listed, but not all lower priority projects may be produced).​

​

7. The bids will be broadly grouped into three priority categories. All will then be subsequently prioritised internally within each category in the production queue.​

​

* Category A: Mandatory. These items will be produced. Three INT wings, two TAC wings, one CL, one HArm, one TP or LC, one light armd div.​

​

* Category B: Preferred. Very likely to be produced, below the above priorities for MP and timing: two INT (one new, one new or upgraded), two TAC, one DD, one TP or LC, one medium armd div.​

​

* Category C. Desired. Likely to be produced, but dependent of MP and IC requirements: one CL, one TP or LC, one HArm bde, one MTN div.​

​

* Any other items (ad hoc, infrastructure, radars, base improvements, etc) will be fitted in as possible or convenient.​

​

8. The Air Force research proposal will be sent for review, as discussed.​

​

9. The detailed acquisition priority list will be presented to the President for subsequent final review and approval [ie I will fiddle with them, then queue them myself in-game as IC is freed, tinkering along the way.]​

All these motions were agreed and recommended by the Cabinet and accepted by the President.

“Thank you, gentlemen,” concluded Inönü. “This had been a busy period of consideration and a long but valuable meeting. Please pass on my heartiest thanks to all departmental and external contributors to this process. It is now time for us to attend the various commemorations and special meetings planned for the rest of the day. Then back to the war! Aras, I believe you have some announcements to make?”

“Yes, My President, I do. Now, if you will all refer to the note that has just been placed in front of you …”

---xxx---​

Coming Up: Arrangements for Timisoara/May Day will be unveiled in the next chapter! And after that, the war will grind on: can those two German divisions be pocketed on the Sava? How much further and longer will the offensive be continued? And in what direction? Will the Soviets manage to destroy Army Group North and liberate Leningrad – or might the Germans extract themselves and strike back once again, as they have in the past? Can Hungary be knocked out of the war at last? The skies will again be contested, as will the back-rooms and dank dungeons of the Secret War.

 

[stnylan]

It is with regret I note that the navy remains a money-sucking parasite on our war effort.

 

[Bullfilter]

It is with regret I note that the navy remains a money-sucking parasite on our war effort.

Though only in a small way that might prove important in Italy and Spain. Most of the necessary stuff has been built.

 

[roverS3]

I thank the Turkish cabinet for carefully weighing all the options and coming to a rather sensible conclusion. I understand that the Far East is somewhat beyond the scope of Turkish strategy, and respect the Turkish government's position, even if I may not agree entirely. Turkey's focus in Europe may well turn out for the better as it could allow more of the Red Army to focus on the East. Even if Turkey were to stop advancing now, the Soviet Union would still have reason to be eternally grateful for Turkey's valiant contribution to this titanic struggle. Though we would appreciate Turkish assistance in the Far East after VE day, no one will blame Turkey for bowing out gracefully once Europe is secured. On the subject of Aeroplane research: If Turkey were to start researching Single Engine Aeroplane tech, I would strongly suggest replacing Örlungat with someone who focuses more on Air Superiority (Light Aircraft Practical Decay: (-10%) ) than on Army Aviation, if such a figure of the appropriate stature and political leaning is to be found in the upper ranks of the Turkish Air Force, that is. Of course, I mean no disrespect to Örlungat, who helped shape the current Turkish Air Force, and who shall enter history as the father of the modern Turkish Air Force as a force that can go toe to toe with major power's Air Forces, if not in numbers, in bravery, and in the quality of aeroplanes and training.

SkitalecS3

 

[Bullfilter]

I thank the Turkish cabinet for carefully weighing all the options and coming to a rather sensible conclusion. I understand that the Far East is somewhat beyond the scope of Turkish strategy, and respect the Turkish government's position, even if I may not agree entirely. Turkey's focus in Europe may well turn out for the better as it could allow more of the Red Army to focus on the East. Even if Turkey were to stop advancing now, the Soviet Union would still have reason to be eternally grateful for Turkey's valiant contribution to this titanic struggle. Though we would appreciate Turkish assistance in the Far East after VE day, no one will blame Turkey for bowing out gracefully once Europe is secured. On the subject of Aeroplane research: If Turkey were to start researching Single Engine Aeroplane tech, I would strongly suggest replacing Örlungat with someone who focuses more on Air Superiority (Light Aircraft Practical Decay: (-10%) ) than on Army Aviation, if such a figure of the appropriate stature and political leaning is to be found in the upper ranks of the Turkish Air Force, that is. Of course, I mean no disrespect to Örlungat, who helped shape the current Turkish Air Force, and who shall enter history as the father of the modern Turkish Air Force as a force that can go toe to toe with major power's Air Forces, if not in numbers, in bravery, and in the quality of aeroplanes and training.

SkitalecS3

Many thanks! Good idea re Örlungat if it comes to that: he would still probably retain his post as CoS and his field command in the Air Force.

 

[nuclearslurpee]

Much thanks for the excellent meeting summary report here. While of course all contributors, myself included, will experience a certain measure of disappointment that not all of our recommendations have been taken, we can all appreciate the even-handed approach taken by the cabinet here to combine the various proposals into a sensible, detailed strategic plan for the foreseeable (?) future. I have of course the utmost confidence in our cabinet members and most especially our esteemed President and authAAR of the present report to provide the best possible leadership to complete the present war effort.

I thank the Turkish cabinet for carefully weighing all the options and coming to a rather sensible conclusion. I understand that the Far East is somewhat beyond the scope of Turkish strategy, and respect the Turkish government's position, even if I may not agree entirely. Turkey's focus in Europe may well turn out for the better as it could allow more of the Red Army to focus on the East. Even if Turkey were to stop advancing now, the Soviet Union would still have reason to be eternally grateful for Turkey's valiant contribution to this titanic struggle. Though we would appreciate Turkish assistance in the Far East after VE day, no one will blame Turkey for bowing out gracefully once Europe is secured. On the subject of Aeroplane research: If Turkey were to start researching Single Engine Aeroplane tech, I would strongly suggest replacing Örlungat with someone who focuses more on Air Superiority (Light Aircraft Practical Decay: (-10%) ) than on Army Aviation, if such a figure of the appropriate stature and political leaning is to be found in the upper ranks of the Turkish Air Force, that is. Of course, I mean no disrespect to Örlungat, who helped shape the current Turkish Air Force, and who shall enter history as the father of the modern Turkish Air Force as a force that can go toe to toe with major power's Air Forces, if not in numbers, in bravery, and in the quality of aeroplanes and training.

SkitalecS3

Many thanks! Good idea re Örlungat if it comes to that: he would still probably retain his post as CoS and his field command in the Air Force.

I do agree that Örlungat's service as chief of staff should not go unheralded nor unrewarded. However, with the recent and continuing expansion of our bold air force it is perhaps time to appoint a full-time chief of the air force in a totally separate capacity who has the freedom to devote all of his time to air force matters with no division of attentions. Our esteemed Örlungat could then fully devote his attention to matters of broader urgency and particularly those matter pertaining to the intended series of offensives which will come into play rather sooner than we might think...

 

[diskoerekto]

Except the priority of the first CL instead of more air superiority planes, I wholeheartedly agree with the procurement plan. Great path forward for the future, now is the time to fight. First we take Budapest, then we take Berlin (well, probably Rome, but I didn't want to veer too far from the original song)

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The USSR may wish to pursue this line separately, but it is seen to be beyond both Turkey’s direct national interests and the previously agreed basis of the alliance with the Soviet Union, as supported by other contributors

We have no interest in the far East, and probably never will. We hope and will support to the best of our ability the war with japan, but russia must recognise that we are a Mediterranean power that will, at the end of the war in Europe, have just taken over most of the Mediterranean. That will be our chief concern and resource sink for many decades to come.

Specifically, the long-time Turkish objective to fight and conquer Italy, bringing its constituent parts into the UGNR remains a prime strategic driver for the UGNR. That therefore makes any capabilities required to support that integral to research, procurement and production policies."

Agreed. If we don't get turkey and Italy together, communist France will probably usurp our place as premier power in the Med.

As mentioned in background material, bringing France into the Comintern is desirable (on general terms and as a gateway to Spain) but not necessary. It is therefore not a driver of Turkish acquisition policy."

Russia will probably do it by themselves whilst we take down southern Italy. They can be stalins stooges after the war. Our concern is to take italy, russia may puppet or invite communsit france into the fold as they see fit (probably the latter realistically) but it is not true we have no conern in the matter. It will be vital for our Spanish mission to have a friendly border with france for the duration, perhaps even french support. Whilst we would end up puppeting the place or inviting it into the republics, it would be a good way of making friends with new france, making deals on the border and propose spheres of influence. We'll be the comintern reps in the med and Atlantic after all. We need to be close bedfellows.

Quite, Aras," agreed Bayar. "The same applies to Britain: trying to match them in naval power in this war is considered not viable and will not be a force determinant. In fact, it is hoped war with them can be avoided altogether." (eg ME!)

Just so. There is no reason to fight them when post colonial pressure will make them leave north africa and Arabia anyway. We need only be patient and if need be prepared to put money down to buy 'our' land back from the filthy imperialists whilst they keep their eastern empire together.

This question was not without dissenting opinions, mainly directed at those urging a more global Turkish contribution to the entire war aims of the Comintern and advocating for the complete defeat of the Axis in Asia.

Well put simply we would barely make a dent in the east. Its now a toss up to see who will end up winning more stuff there, the us or ussr. Britain being the dark horse favourite that could at any moment come out of nowhere and steal china from them both.

propose that this contingency should be incorporated into Turkish force determination priorities, for capabilities and the timing of their introduction. Finland, as contributors noted, will be left to the Soviets. But the ability of Turkey to lead operations against Spain, with or without land access via France, must be considered (with naval, marine and air power implications).”

exactly. We need france to be friendly at least, and probably will need their help at worst.

As previously stated [per game mechanics, which drive the story, not OTL or ‘realistic’ considerations, however logical], US affiliation is considered rock solid. And unless either Finland or Spain has actually joined the Allies at that point, any British reaction to an attack on either will be disregarded as either irrelevant, or a necessary risk to achieve the principal war aims, and perhaps before the defeat of the Axis in Europe has been achieved. As @diskoerekto states, “even though they're not in Axis, both Spain and Finland (and Vichy France and Portugal and maybe some Chinese warlords) are also Fascist”.

I suspect in-game universe you are right. Fascism will have been sufficiently demonised at that point and communism emboldened in the us public that we can safely take Spain and Russia safely take Finland without complaint (possibly in our case even with help from the US since they'll be trying to keep us on their side instead of russias).

All good so far. Kelebek approves also.

Much thanks for the excellent meeting summary report here. While of course all contributors, myself included, will experience a certain measure of disappointment that not all of our recommendations have been taken

So far as I can tell, aside from out of game context of course the US will back us, Kelebek was actually listened to very well. Which is nice to see. Can only wonder what would have happened to the Pine Martins if he hadn't been.

 

[diskoerekto]

We have no interest in the far East, and probably never will. We hope and will support to the best of our ability the war with japan, but russia must recognise that we are a Mediterranean power that will, at the end of the war in Europe, have just taken over most of the Mediterranean. That will be our chief concern and resource sink for many decades to come.

Not the far east, but the Indian subcontinent is a different matter. The English hold there for less than a century. Just before them, it was ruled by Turks for more than 3 centuries. Mediterranean shall be our sea, and Indian ocean shall be our ocean.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Not the far east, but the Indian subcontinent is a different matter. The English hold there for less than a century. Just before them, it was ruled by Turks for more than 3 centuries. Mediterranean shall be our sea, and Indian ocean shall be our ocean.

What's the point? We already have to rebuild or in many cases start from scratch regarding almost all of the middle east and persia. Add to that rebuilding italy and the balkans, securing our rule in Spain and building a proper navy up in the peacetime...

We dont have time or resources for India. Maybe once partitioned, perhaps could try sphereing Pakistan. Otherwise Mr Over-extension shall kill us all.

 

[Bullfilter]

An aside: if India somehow ‘fell into our laps’ through game developments (or in a post-main-game Epilogue play through, etc) then we’d not hesitate to take it. But not to determine force structure for the rest of this phase of the war or to delay victory in Europe. And out of game but in-universe, they would have to be made a self-governing Comintern independent country anyway in the settlement: too big a bite for Turkey to consume in the mid-20th century, one suspects. Though it may be necessary to do some British-style partitioning!

 

[roverS3]

An aside: if India somehow ‘fell into our laps’ through game developments (or in a post-main-game Epilogue play through, etc) then we’d not hesitate to take it. But not to determine force structure for the rest of this phase of the war or to delay victory in Europe. And out of game but in-universe, they would have to be made a self-governing Comintern independent country anyway in the settlement: too big a bite for Turkey to consume in the mid-20th century, one suspects. Though it may be necessary to do some British-style partitioning!

OOC: Within the spirit of the times, I see Turkey grabbing the predominantly Muslim area known today as 'Pakistan' (but not Bangladesh), adding in the disputed Kashmir region, and integrating that into the UGNR proper as a priority. Any other Indian territory Turkey grabs can then become a majority Hindu puppet state. There is a high chance of sectarian violence, and the Muslim population in the Bangladesh area is likely to seek protection from Turkey proper in some way, leading to another partition and the creation of a majority Muslim puppet state there at a later date. Unless Turkey can push India into being a Union of Glorious Indian Republics, which decentralises and secularises the power structure, allowing for the forming of a shared national identity, and avoiding partition altogether. Of course, that would make it more of a threat to Turkey once Turkey's influence over this rival Union starts to wane for whatever reason. Divide and conquer is probably still the safest bet for Turkey (likely not for the Indian population).

If control of major trade routes is a big consideration, grabbing Madagascar could also be on the table. As a base, it allows Turkey to project Air & Naval power further into the Indian Ocean, and to more easily interdict trade that is going around the horn of Africa. If Turkey can close off both ends of the Med, and heavily harass trade around the Horn it can basically cut off or police trade between Europe & Asia, all through bases that are relatively close to home, and have relatively safe supply lines.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Let us be completely clear here, after the war, turkey is going to need both Russia and the US to pump the place full of money and resources in order to keep the whole thing running. At the moment, turkey is a third rate power in a suit far too big for it. Italy and turkey together with support, eventually, from the republics in between, should be a strong player in Europe and project power very well across the Med. but getting to that stable, industrialised and independent place is going to be hard. I wouldn't be suprised if there was plenty of trouble domestically in Persia, the Middle East and North Africa on all sides. We're going to have to try to keep all these republics together, following our lead and industrialising everyone to the point of usefulness, then building a navy big and competent enough to protect our interests in the med and Persian gulf.

We will have help from our puppets, the communists and the amercians but it will all come with major strings attached. And if we cock up once, it's curtains for us. So to be blunt, unless India is partitioned and Pakistan begs to be let into the republics, we can't go there. It's too far away, too big and too chaotic. Later on we can use the shared Muslim background and links with Persia, if we still own Persia, to our advantage on the subcontent but that's twenty to thirty years down the line. Madagascar again is a good idea in the long run but it's so far away that it won't be in range of naval support for another few decades.

No, no, we need to take Italy, take slain because we have too and then battery down the hatches and prepare for a hellish few years of trying to keep the country together in peacetime. And preferably we manage to be on the way there by the time imperial rule in North Africa and the Middle East begins to become untenable. Then we can move in, as slowly as needs be. Everything other than getting Italy and Spain in wartime and building up the country and navy in peacetime must be discarded as a flight of fancy.

 

[diskoerekto]

OOC: Within the spirit of the times, I see Turkey grabbing the predominantly Muslim area known today as 'Pakistan' (but not Bangladesh), adding in the disputed Kashmir region, and integrating that into the UGNR proper as a priority. Any other Indian territory Turkey grabs can then become a majority Hindu puppet state. There is a high chance of sectarian violence, and the Muslim population in the Bangladesh area is likely to seek protection from Turkey proper in some way, leading to another partition and the creation of a majority Muslim puppet state there at a later date. Unless Turkey can push India into being a Union of Glorious Indian Republics, which decentralises and secularises the power structure, allowing for the forming of a shared national identity, and avoiding partition altogether. Of course, that would make it more of a threat to Turkey once Turkey's influence over this rival Union starts to wane for whatever reason. Divide and conquer is probably still the safest bet for Turkey (likely not for the Indian population).

If control of major trade routes is a big consideration, grabbing Madagascar could also be on the table. As a base, it allows Turkey to project Air & Naval power further into the Indian Ocean, and to more easily interdict trade that is going around the horn of Africa. If Turkey can close off both ends of the Med, and heavily harass trade around the Horn it can basically cut off or police trade between Europe & Asia, all through bases that are relatively close to home, and have relatively safe supply lines.

Except Turkey itself (around 20M), Bulgaria and Greece (each around 7M), the UGNR consists of republics around 1-3M population. This means the Raj, with its population of 380M, would need to be partitioned to around 100 republics to go with the average, or at least 50 to keep them Bulgaria/Greece sized. Well, that's as much work for our ethnolinguists, anthropologists and sociologists as our military planners

By the same calculation, Italy would be somewhere between 6-15 republics, Hungary 2-3, Spain 4-9.

(We have 20 republics now, right? Saudi Arabia was accepted as one republic, and I'm headcanoning the south half of Afghanistan as another)

flight of fancy

This is why I'm here for

 

[Bullfilter]

We'll get into post-war settlement stuff properly when the AAR concludes. But the size of GNRs would be more based on ethnicity and/or proportional to population than a fixed amount of people for each. Could be 1m or 100m, really. I was thinking about modern-day Pakistan if it ever came to it as a possible UGNR member. Afghanistan? Probably be better to stay out of there! A puppet reporting to the Soviets would be 'best.' Then the MAH & SITH can do an ISI equivalent thing by around 1980-90. What could possibly go wrong?

By the same calculation, Italy would be somewhere between 6-15 republics, Hungary 2-3, Spain 4-9.

(We have 20 republics now, right? Saudi Arabia was accepted as one republic, and I'm headcanoning the south half of Afghanistan as another)

Italy? Probably 4-6 GNRs, Spain similar. Yes, I think 20 at the moment - Arabia was admitted.

 

[Bullfilter]

Just a ‘public service announcement’ to let you know that, with all the recent Cabinet process finished and other AARs updated, it is TT’s turn again. The whole of May has been played through, for game mechanic/AI continuity purposes, as has been my habit of late (and it seems to be working pretty well with the game flow). So the next chapter will kick off with May/Timisoara Day commemorations, then ... seatbelts mandatory for the wild ride after that!

What with the end of month summaries and side stories, it’s at least three, possibly four episodes worth! I’ll try to keep the detail under control, but things get very busy and I don’t want to change the whole vibe of the commentary just to squeeze it in to a couple of over-long episodes. As it gets closer to publication of the first chapter I’ll do the traditional response feedback to any I haven’t covered.

Hope you all remain well! Those who have been following things long term will, I hope, find the coming updates quite exciting. No shortage of action against a persistent and doughty enemy, as risks are taken with a force whose ambitions are not always matched by its size and strength ...