First off, I'd like to thank all the advisers that have responded before me, as well as the Turkish government for the information provided.
Strategic Aims:
As much as these 'victory conditions' are important, the bigger question on my mind is how we get out of this war in the strongest possible position. This position has to be viewed in three levels.
1. How much territory, industry, population, and resources end up under the influence of the current Comintern. (USSR, USA, Turkey)
The only acceptable issue to the war here is for the vast majority of current Axis real estate to end up under the influence of Comintern members. Most importantly, the current Comintern must be in control of Japan, Germany, and Italy. The quickest way to get there is probably by having the USSR focus on Berlin, the UGNR on Rome, and the USA on Japan.
2. How much of this ends up under our influence if the USA bails, which seems likely as they lack both geographic proximity and ideological similarity to the other Comintern members.
Within the aforementioned framework and considering the current state of the war, the UGNR and the USSR must be the ones to liberate all, or the vast majority, of Axis-occupied Europe, as well as all Soviet Territory currently under Japanese control. If the USA continues it's current policy and the Red Army reaches the Pacific before the US armed forces have made significant strides against the Japanese Empire, the USSR and the UGNR must work together to take on the Empire of the Rising Sun, throw them out of the Asian mainland, and force them to surrender at home, before any of us even think of taking on a currently un-involved power. In this respect, I respectfully disagree with
@nuclearslurpee 's Eurocentric proposals to charge into Spain and Finland as soon as Germany and Italy are knocked out. Yes, placing Finland in the USSR's sphere of influence, and Spain in the UGNR's will improve our bargaining position, but first we must win the war on all fronts. No point in getting prematurely distracted.
3a. How much ends up under the direct influence of the USSR, regardless of the other Comintern members.
3b. How much ends up under the direct influence of the UGNR, regardless of the other Comintern members.
For the sake of Turko-Soviet cooperation, I won't delve too much into 3a and 3b. I will only add to it by including the possibility of Japanese forces reaching the UGNR's Eastern Border in Pakistan. That would allow Turkey to expand Eastwards, south of the Himalaya, by expelling the Japs, creating a clear split between Soviet and Turkish areas of operation on the Eastern front.
Within this framework enough of these arbitrary 'victory conditions' will have been reached to satisfy any critic.
How the desired outcome is achieved is still a question, of course. The proposal of an amphibious landing is definitely an interesting prospect. I think that, if Mayhem goes well, and Hungary is knocked out, Turkey should be able to free up forces for a landing in Sicily, distracting the Italians, taking hold of some prime Mediterranean real estate, and removing naval bases that could threaten Turkish seaborne supply lines at the same time. I would suggest for Turkey to use Marines for the first wave, then add some mobile forces to quickly grab the island. For the fight on the Italian mainland, a third wave, partially (or fully) replacing mobile forces, should be mountaineers, able to fight and move effectively in the Apennine Mountains. Rapidly shifting forces between two fronts, one on either side of the Adriatic would give Turkey a significant advantage in keeping the Italians off balance. A strategy of moving up Adriatic port by Adriatic port, pretty much alternating between both sides, could be highly effective, even against relatively stiff resistance.
Procurement Priorities:
On the subject of adding new Divisions to the Army, I don't share other adviser's enthusiasm for pushing all our manpower reserves into new formations, for several reasons:
1. Manpower. Turkey is currently loosing more men than it can replace. These losses are concentrated in the Divisions that are actually fighting these bold offensives. That means that, if there are no manpower reserves, these losses cannot be fully replaced without disbanding other formations. Alternatively, Turkey can also slow down it's operations to minimise losses, or enact longer pauses between offensives, thereby lengthening the war. Neither of these outcomes is desirable. Turkey's ability to be very agressive and get results is directly linked to it's ability to replace losses quickly.
2. Leadership. Turkey already has a shortage of General's, adding more Divisions will only make this problem worse, especially when you add the need for more HQ's to control these Divisions. Diluting available officers amongst too many Divisions also goes against the current style of Turkish warfare.
This doesn't mean you can't add new Divisions, only that strengthening and/or upgrading current Divisions should take precedence. I would advocate for a conservative estimate to be made on how much Turkish manpower will be needed to win this war in Europe. Paired with an optimistic timeline, you can then calculate how much manpower Turkey can really spare. To close the gap between the losses and the replacements, both Agriculture research and a more potent Air Force will have a significant impact. The Divisions we do add must provide as much firepower & mobility as possible, for their allocated manpower. Or they should have specific capabilities. (eg. Marines, Paratroopers, Mountaineers). I would suggest trying to keep at least 40 MP on hand by the end of the year to allow enough flexibility to engage in high risk high reward strategies that inevitably end in high casualties, but have the potential to take a lot of ground and take many prisoners.
The Air Force: Interceptors are the number one priority here, even over additional ground forces. Until Turkey is in a position to chase enemy bombers away consistently you need the manpower reserves to replace the losses from enemy ground attack so interceptors take priority over new Divisions on the ground. Tactical bombers are next in line. They will soften up enemy troops, reduce the number of casualties your forces take in ground combat, and speed up offensives, but if you can't protect them against enemy fighters they're just a bunch of targets for enemy fighters, and they are quite expensive to replace, another reason to concentrate on Interceptors first. The proposal to start improving old Turkish Airframes is another way to improve the Air Force that would be beneficial. Maybe allocate one research slot to Aeroplane research and see where that gets you, starting, of course, with Aero engines. I would push for a narrow focus on single Engine Aeroplanes, though, at least until Turkish homegrown fighters become somewhat competitive. This is also an insurance policy, just in case licenses become too expensive or simply unavailable. Turkey could then consider building home-grown CAS to complement it's INT, and it's stock of Tac, with little additional research needed.
The Navy: Here I will reiterate the need for a modern Light Cruisers. In the short term development, let alone construction, of capital ships should still take a backseat. These CL's aren't just investments for the long term, they could function in tandem with the modern Destroyers to protect convoys and scout potential naval invasion locations. Yes, as the front moves further and further from the Turkish homeland, supply on land will become more costly and more limited. Seaborne supply convoys are cheaper to run, and they provide additional throughput. (which can be increased by researching 'Basing' and expanding naval bases.). To mitigate the associated risks, we need to have a clear understanding of the enemy naval forces present along the routes these convoys take. The radar sets on board these license-built ships will help. A fleet of CL's and DD's is also fast enough to escape when it encounters larger surface combattants which can do real damage. Of course, this has to be avoided at all costs, as significant losses will be sustained during the evasion. The Air Force's bombers could also be used to soften up enemy fleets in port. Dive bombers are particularly effective in this regard, and they have the range to reach the other side of the Adriatic. The obsolete main Turkish fleet should only be used to escort slow troop transports and provide shore bombardment during amphibious invasions, ideally with the smaller, faster, and more modern fleet scouting for potential naval threats.
In case Turkey has to fight the Japs on it's own Eastern front, naval convoys into Persia will be vital to supply a large force. An increase in the size of the Turkish Merchant Navy should also be on the table as the UGNR expands, and once the European victory is a done deal, attention should go to the development of Turkish capital ships, whether you go with CA's or CV's.
Of course, sufficient troop transports / Landing Craft should be available to allow for amphibious operations and quick reinforcement.
The manpower situation isn't desperate, and once losses and replacements can be equalised without slowing down operations, significantly reducing reserve manpower by adding entire corps of new units becomes viable again. I suggest monitoring the manpower situation over time and evaluating every month how much Turkey's net loss is in this respect. (not counting the MP for new units). I will repeat it again, manpower should not dictate the operational tempo. If your nation finds itself in a situation where units have to be disbanded to keep going, things have gone horribly wrong somewhere. Additionally, supplies have to be delivered as efficiently as possible, even if that means taking a calculated risk on the fact that ships could get sunk in the process.
Diplomacy: I believe it is unlikely we will be able to convince Nationalist Spain or Finland to join the Comintern, especially when they have the possibility to deal with the US or the UK instead. Nationalist China could only be swayed if the Comintern already has a clear upper hand in the Far East. Even then, we should watch out for a potential Chinese civil war, and potentially alienating the winners of such a war. Finally, Turkey should probably save it's limited Leadership for research and officers.
In short. In my opinion the production priorities right now should be:
Interceptors first. Upgrades and reinforcement of existing units second. Tac's third. Naval transports fourth. Light Cruisers fifth. New Divisions sixth.
This is, of course subject to change as discussed above.
I'm looking forward to the coming strategic meeting, I'm sure it will be worthwhile and enlightening,
SkitalecS3