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Chapter CLIX: A Season for Decisions Part 1.
Chapter CLIX: A Season for Decisions Part 1.

The realities of aircraft development were such that even if there had their been no changes to the aero engine development plans the RAF Air Staff would still have had many decisions to make in the Autumn of 1937. The development of a new aircraft, particularly a large or ambitious one, was not a quick process and even with the more 'streamlined' approach taken by the Churchill Air Ministry it could still take several years to go from writing the operational requirement to a fully operational squadron. Given the speed of technological advance an aircraft could go from cutting edge to only fit for second line duties in considerably less time than that, consequently it had become standard practice to begin looking at the next generation of aircraft even before the prototypes of the current generation had finished testing, so as to keep a steady stream of 'modern' aircraft entering service. For all that the biggest threat to a design was generally not the advance of technology but the sometimes even faster changes in priorities and strategic thinking both within and without the Air Ministry. The most recent set of defence priorities had been set at the Imperial Defence Conference the previous year, or at least the general ideas had been discussed there and had subsequently been worked over by the Committee of Imperial Defence and turned into some slightly more practical service specific priorities. For the Air Ministry and RAF these were;

• Home defence
• Provision of the aerial component of the expeditionary force
• Support for imperial security and policing missions
• Far Eastern operations

At first reading nothing on that lists seems to require or even suggest that "Build a large fleet of strategic bombers" was an intended priority, yet it was with the bombers that the Air Staff started their work. This was not just the bomber barons taking advantage of the still somewhat vague nature of the priorities, but a reflection that the Air Ministry still saw a significant role for bombers of all types across the priorities. To start with Home Defence while politicians were increasingly seeing that as being a job for fighters and the various Chain Home systems, the deterrent effect of a large bomber fleet was still valued even by those who doubted the 'morale effect' was quite as strong as Bomber Command had claimed. Moving to the next point one of the results of the Chetwode Reforms had been a standing Expeditionary Force, while mostly an Army affair it was intended for the force to have an aerial component for everything from artillery spotting through to air attacks on depots, bridges and similar targets. Much of the detail was still the subject of a three way tussle between the Army, Strike Command and Bomber Command as we shall see in the following chapters, but all agreed that bomber support would be required in some fashion. 'Imperial security' was the latest incarnation of the Air Policing role that the RAF had been carrying out across the Middle East since the early 1920s, most recently in 1934 when they had supported the High Commissioner in Aden and the local pro-British Emir. While not a solution to every problem a squadron of RAF aircraft was a valuable reminder of British power and an efficient way of supporting favoured local rulers and preventing local difficulties becoming problems London had to do something about. This priority was therefore a reminder to the Air Staff not to neglect this mission which was a priority for the Foreign, Colonial and Indian Offices. Finally there was Far Eastern Strategic Operations which perhaps had the widest range of interpretations, politically it had been seen as defence of Singapore through fighters, reconnaissance craft and torpedo bombers to support the fleet and the RAF and Dominion Air Forces had deployed squadrons accordingly. The difference was the Air Staff looked beyond that towards strategic bombing of the Japanese Empire and eventually the Japanese Home Islands themselves, in line with their belief that air power alone could win any war if your just applied enough of it. If the politicians had truly intended this is less than clear, however the CID and Air Ministry could see the value in a credible Far Eastern bomber force if only as a deterrent, so were prepared to let the Air Staff attempt to prove such a thing was possible.

Bzs89Ns.jpg

RAF Brize Norton, one of the new training bases built under RAF Expansion Scheme A it was declared operational in the summer of 1937 when No.2 Flying Training School and it's collection of biplane trainers flew in. The distinctive 'ribbed' roofs of the four Type C Hangars are clearly visible as are the other station buildings clustered to the left of them on the picture. What is not visible are any marked runways, instead a faint perimeter road marks the extent of the large grass 'flying field' while the shorter cut grass which marked out the 'runways' are not visible in the photos. A properly levelled and drained grass runway was surprisingly all weather capable, but only if the newly laid grass was given at least three years to properly form its root structure. The various attempts to short cut this process almost uniformly ended poorly, the most notorious example being the 'sinking planes' at Gatwick airport over the winter of 1937/38. Equally relevant for the Air Staff was the fact that a grass runway was far less efficient than a concrete or tarmac one, a bomber that needed 1,500 ft to take off on a grass field would only need 1,000 ft on concrete.

Before looking at the two bomber projects under consideration it is worth understanding the implications and consequences of a key concept that was in both specifications - overloaded launch. As we have seen for much of the 1920s and early 1930s the notional enemy for the RAF was France and ranges were set accordingly, the 1934 specification for the Whitely has been the first where the range had been set with Germany in mind, specifically the target was Berlin. As the plans department and economic warfare department really started studying Germany it was soon noted that while the Ruhr was the economic heart of the country the industry in eastern Germany and Silesia could not be ignored. To hit those targets a 'radius of action' of 700 miles would be needed, adding on the fuel for take off, landing and provision for emergencies and combat this meant a nominal range of 2,000 miles would be required. The issue with achieving such range was weight, more specifically the weight of the loaded bomber at take off and so the required runway length; all else being equal a heavier aircraft will have a higher take off speed and so need a longer runway to reach that speed. With advances in flaps, variable speed propellers and engine power this was considered achievable on a typical grass strip of the time, but anything heavier would require a longer runway than existed at many of the RAF's older Great War era airfields. This was where overload came in, for missions that either required either much longer range or very heavy bomb loads the aircraft would be 'overloaded' with extra fuel and bombs and then launched via a 'frictionless take-off device'. This deliberately vaguely defined device would rapidly accelerate the aircraft to take-off speed in a very short distance and so bypass the runway limitations entirely. In practice the Air Staff expected the device to be a catapult, various iterations of which had been trialled since the 1920s and were in regular use on Royal Navy ships to launch scout planes. Crucially though no firm decision had been made as the Air Staff were concerned with the result not the specific method, while this did leave space for bad ideas such as large flywheels or 'gravity launch' (harness the power produced from dropping large weights down wells) it also meant more useful options could be developed.

Overload had been a pre-Abyssinian War idea and when the Air Staff came to reconsider it in light of the revised post-war defence priorities the situation had changed considerably. With the need to plan for operations in the Far East range had become even more important and as we have seen in-flight refuelling was being investigated as a range-extender, but it was not without it's own drawbacks, not least the large number of tanker aircraft required. The extra range allowed by an overload launch was therefore attractive as it didn't 'waste' any aircraft as tankers. The bad news came from the Royal Aircraft Establishment (RAE) who had been working on the catapult launch option for several years and had produced a preliminary design, the implications of which were unfavourable to say the least. The RAE confirmed that technically a catapult capable of launching a 30tonne aircraft in a very short distance was entirely possible, however it would require a great deal of power (around 8-10,000 HP), a fairly complex rig which would limit cycle time (several minutes per launch, meaning it could take up to an hour to launch a whole bomber squadron) and somewhat ironically a concrete launch track, indeed to allow for wind direction changes several concrete launch tracks. The irony being that part of the motivation for the 'frictionless take-off device' had been to avoid the costs of converting existing grass airfields to concrete or laying new ones. With an estimated cost of around £100,000 per catapult it was still cheaper than building concrete runways, a three runway arrangement with concrete paving was estimated at around £200,000, however the specialists required for the pneumatic systems made it far more challenging to install at overseas bases. The limited cost advantage and the serious operational problems were enough to see the catapult option shelved, though the RAE catapult section would survive by becoming a joint operation with the Admiralty. While the Air Staff hoped this would be a cheap way for the RAF to keep their options open the section soon became entirely focused on ship-borne devices for float planes and hydraulic catapults for aircraft carriers. This was not the end of the overload launch option however, as mentioned the requirement had been non-specific on launch method and in amongst the many bad suggestions there was another far more viable option, RATO - Rocket Assisted Take-Off. RATO had been identified by the RAE as a possibility in a report in early 1936, this was not a particularly insightful conclusion as Germany and the Soviets had been independently testing the use of rockets since the mid 1920s. The principle was exactly as simple as it sounded, rockets were attached to the aircraft and rapidly accelerated it up to take off speed in a very short distance. As the next generation of bombers had been designed for overload it was believed they were already capable of taking the loads imposed by this acceleration, thus the only issue was the rockets themselves. At this point we must once again delve into the world of inter-service rivalry.

45E0zZs.jpg

The almost incredibly unimpressive cordite filing room at RAF Martlesham Heath, the then home of the Rocket Establishment alongside various other research groups. British rocket research had focused on solid fuelled rockets and had developed a new solvent free form of cordite to power them, unimaginatively called Cordite SC (Solventless Cordite), along with a range of tools and techniques to manufacture the rocket bodies. By late 1937 had produced a fairly powerful 2" diameter rocket and were looking at scaling it up to 3". While far from the most high performance rockets in the world, they were cheap, reliable and optimised for mass production. This was something of a hallmark of all the groups working at Martlesham Heath, a willingness to select a second best approach in the cause of getting something working faster.

The Rocket Establishment had been established to meet Army and Air Force research requirements and so to avoid excessive squabbling fell under the CID, that body had set the original research objectives;

• Anti-aircraft defence
• Long-range attack
• Air-launched weapons

The first was the cheap rocket weapon the Army had hoped would be a more economic alternative to heavy AA guns, long-range attack was the latest iteration of LARYNX which hoped to hit targets several hundred miles distant, while the air-launched weapon project was an idea that had come from the Tizard Committee about the potential for defending fighters to launch barrages of rockets at formations of enemy bombers. Notably absent was any rocket assisted take off idea, not for any technical reason but because at the time of the establishment being started the Air Ministry was focused on catapults and did not see the need. When there has been no functional rockets there had been very little dissent about the order of the priorities as in principle and indeed in practice, the same rocket engine and body could do multiple jobs so the work advanced all the objectives equally. The successful testing of a viable rocket focused minds about which project would get priority for practical implementation and so the RATO work became part of the ongoing inter-service discussions. The starting point was that the Army had a good claim to top priority, just as for the Air Ministry the priorities for the War Office had been set by CID and Home Defence was their top priority for them. As the anti-aircraft rockets were intended to supplement, and perhaps even replace, the existing AA guns assigned to home defence they inherited this priority. If one stuck to the intent of the system then home defence was more important to the cabinet and Westminster than improved bomber performance, thus the Army should win out. Fortunately for the Air Staff the Imperial General Staff were prepared to negotiate the point, not out of any high minded duty but because of the nature of the new rockets. While the prototype 2" rockets had the power and endurance to hit targets at 15,000ft or more the accuracy at that height was terrible, as a result even after making a generous assumption on how cheap a mass produced rocket could be they seemed a less cost effective solution that heavy AA guns. What would make a difference was improving the accuracy of the AA gun predictors, something with the ongoing radar work on the Gun Laying Radar was intended to do. The War Office proposition therefore was that if the Air Ministry's larger and more experienced radar team would provide extra assistance to the Army Cell working on AA radar, then the Army would allow AA rockets to drop down the priority list. The CID soon weighed in to agree that joint radar research was obviously better than many separate siloed teams the Air Ministry agreed the point before something was forced on them. The two ministries agreed that both the air launched rockets and the AA rocket programme would benefit from increased accuracy, so this would be the second priority after RATO for the Rocket Establishment. The long-range attack idea, while enthusiastically endorsed by the Churchill and the Air Council, had become stuck on the issue of control and guidance. It was therefore agreed that the Rocket Establishment could safely ignore work in that area until the control issues had been worked out and there was an actual rock requirement for them to work on.

kcocJsI.jpg

A Whitely Mk.IV heavy bomber with two RATOG (Rocket Assisted Take Off Gear) pods attached, undergoing trials near Orford Ness. The RATOG pods are the two items outboard of the engines, one on each wing, and consisted of a cluster of rockets bundled together into a steel tube and then fired sequentially to provide extra thrust at take off. As this was a trials aircraft the pods remained attached so the scientists and engineers could study them when the Whitley landed, one of the priorities for the trials flight was to assess what the impact of the pods was on aerodynamic performance and range, to determine if a detachable pod was worth the cost in terms of lost and damaged dropped pods. An early key finding was confirmation that the stresses imposed from a RATO launch were not particularly severe, opening up the possibility of much wider employment of the technique.

A trials unit was soon established at RAF Martlesham Heath, initially with a flight of Armstrong Whitworth Whitley bombers on the basis that they were the nearest in size to the future heavy bombers. Almost inevitably this unit would be joined in the summer of 1938 by one of the first production Vickers Wellington bombers, as the 'Empire Bomber' it would have to operate on everything from Australian dirt strips to frozen fields in the Canadian high north, to say nothing of it's deployments to the Middle and Far East. The RAF (and indeed the RAAF and RCAF) had high hopes that RATO would avoid the need to upgrade and improve quite so many runways to get the maximum range and capacity out of the Wellington. It should be noted that the enthusiastic rush to trial RATO did not mean the issue of concrete vs unpaved runways had been resolved, aside from the range/weight issues it was recognised a concrete runway was more resilient than a grass strip to extremes of weather but that this had to be set against the extra cost. To the distress of the Air Staff the runway debate would soon get dragged into the ongoing airplane vs seaplane battles that were still raging inside, and outside, the Air Ministry, as we shall see in the following chapters. For now it is enough to say that RATO was seen as a way of keeping options open and that overloaded launch remained a valued ability. As we are now hopefully in possession of a better understanding on the priorities of the Air Staff and the Ministry, let us turn our attention to the aircraft themselves.

---
Notes:
As is traditional this one somewhat got away from me, but in an interesting way I hope. The priorities are not quite OTL as they do reflect the many change, however aerial policing remains something that much of the government is interested in and doesn't want the RAF to forget about. The RAF operation in 1934 in Aden was an interesting thing as it was (in OTL) the last aerial policing before WW2. The RAF had got the technique refined by then and were operating in support of the High Commissioners negotiations not instead of them, while not phrased that way they were aware of 'minimum use of force' and lots of other counter-insurgency thinking that would get used post-war. I also wonder if it the success also influenced wider RAF thinking as it was mostly the psychological ('morale') impacts of the bombing that did the work, 95% of the bombs dropped were 5lb 'bomblets' that were noisy but basically harmless, with the occasional dropping of larger bombs as a threat.

Catapults and Overload were a key strand of Air Staff thinking, because most of the WW1 era grass runways would struggle to cope with long take offs and the Bomber Boys really wanted to carry big bomb loads to long ranges. In OTL the massive investment in Expansion Air Bases in the East of England provided a large number of much longer runways, though eventually they would have to concrete most of them just to get good all weather performance and to cope with the ever larger weights of the bombers. The 3 years for grass to 'root it' was something that was a well known rule of thumb but often ignored due to pressure to get things operational and was another driver for concrete runways, particularly once you needed bases for the USAAF there just wasn't time. In any event this meant there was no need for catapults as the RAF could just set very long take off lengths, not quite the case in Butterfly though the problems with catapults remain.

The Whitley RATOG tests did happen but that photo is from 1943. There was some earlier work done spring 1941 but that was FAA/Navy driven. That said the 1936 RAE paper is OTL (as is the Germans and Soviets doing it first), however RATO was a very low priority for the rocket research team so very little happened. OTL AA rockets remained the top priority of the rocket team and the date for developing a decent 2" rocket is correct, the change is the deal on changing priorities. In a world where radar is more widely known, if not necessarily more advanced, a gun laying radar solves the Army AA problem far better than cheap inaccurate rockets so this makes sense to me. Also the British armed services may mock each other and disagree over priorities, but they are capable of sometimes co-operating for mutual benefit. Of course when budgets are tight and cuts have to be made, the infighting can reach Imperial Japanese levels.

The long range missile project is surprisingly OTL, as early as 1936 ideas were being sketched out but again at a very low priority. As described guidance and control were the main problems and didn't really get sorted until well in the 1940s, so this stays on the back burner for now while other boffins try to solve the problem. Air launched anti-bomber rockets were also on the 1936 list, but Fighter Command wasn't fussed and there was some doubt about whether the enemy would operate large formations of bombers or use other tactics. Broadly the same here, so again remains a lower priority but still being thought about and poked.
 
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The almost incredibly unimpressive

I know I too love an extended descriptor but that's a mouthful.

Excellent chapter as ever. Did they factor in the price of concrete replacement, refurbishment and upkeep costs?

Edit: and did anyone attempt to sell the british on the idea that once they converted, they could get 'british designed and built' runways made all over the place to make up the difference?
 
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We are still stuck with the Whitley and the Wellington. Sigh.
 
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Sadly I don't have time for a more detailed response (will come later), but very interesting (many things I've never heard of).

Such high price for paved runway is pretty surprising - why so much?
 
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What a highly detailed and interesting update on the RAF! You discuss a lot of intriguing facts that I had not previously considered, like how the runways laid in place during the First World War could prove totally inadequate for bombers in the Second World War with heavier payloads. You also give an intriguing glimpse behind the curtain at the bureaucratic chicanery that took place among those responsible for keeping the proverbial birds in the air.

I’ve got a lot of catching up to do on this behemoth, but in the meantime it seemed appropriate to review the most recent update so I could give relevant comments.

Well done! I’m excited to read the next update.
 
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I know I too love an extended descriptor but that's a mouthful.
What is life without challenge?
Excellent chapter as ever. Did they factor in the price of concrete replacement, refurbishment and upkeep costs?
Don't think so. A concrete runway is going to last decades so in present value terms (which is how the Treasury thinks) the replacement cost is tiny. Upkeep and refurb probably favours the concrete if anything as it's lower maintenance than grass because it doesn't need regular mowing.
Edit: and did anyone attempt to sell the british on the idea that once they converted, they could get 'british designed and built' runways made all over the place to make up the difference?
The Air Ministry looked at what everyone else was doing and the Americans and Soviets did have some concrete runways, but only in areas where the conditions/weather meant it was the only option. The only tricky part of a runway is getting the foundations right and the US (well California) had the lead on that with the CBR test they developed for road construction. Once that is understood it's just pouring lots of concrete.

We are still stuck with the Whitley and the Wellington. Sigh.
It's still only 1937 Kurtie, aircraft development is not that quick I'm afraid. If it's any consolation we will be looking at better aircraft in the next chapter.

Sadly I don't have time for a more detailed response (will come later), but very interesting (many things I've never heard of).
I look forward to it. :)
Such high price for paved runway is pretty surprising - why so much?
It's just a huge volume of concrete. Take the early pattern 'Class A' base, the classic three runways forming a triangle shape type base. Each runway is 3,000ft long, 150ft wide and concrete is 6 inches thick. Say 750,000 cubic foot of concrete. Damn hard to find costs for concrete in the 1930s, but best guess that's ~£120,000 in concrete alone, probably more as all the material would have to be transported out to the site. The installation process could also be fairly labour intensive;


What a highly detailed and interesting update on the RAF! You discuss a lot of intriguing facts that I had not previously considered, like how the runways laid in place during the First World War could prove totally inadequate for bombers in the Second World War with heavier payloads. You also give an intriguing glimpse behind the curtain at the bureaucratic chicanery that took place among those responsible for keeping the proverbial birds in the air.
The low profile but important things and behind the scenes bureaucratic infighting are two of the focuses of this work, so I am glad you appreciated them.
I’ve got a lot of catching up to do on this behemoth, but in the meantime it seemed appropriate to review the most recent update so I could give relevant comments.
TBC has done a whirlwind summary some pages back, it does come with his own unique view of the work but it does function as a very rapid way to get up to to speed.
Well done! I’m excited to read the next update.
I am delighted you enjoyed it and am pleased to welcome you aboard. :)
 
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behind the scenes bureaucratic infighting

WW1 had a lot of that too, and there will have to be at least a few chapters on how some people OTL and TTL TBTM did some (in modern and probably back then too) extremely dodgy and illegal stuff to get the weapons, devices and development they needed.

TBC has done a whirlwind summary some pages back, it does come with his own unique view of the work but it does function as a very rapid way to get up to to speed.

Well...it'll cover the big Butterflies and story beats, plus a general timeline (for where dates are given). I'd say it's best used for covering the majority of the work, which was done pre-2011 and did have quite a bit of plot movement despite covering only a few years.

After that, TBE adopts the modern format of Glacial pace and focusing more on non-easily summarised stuff like economics, service rivalries, tech techy tech tech development, industry, resources etc. Hence the somewhat glib one set necessary summary: 'nothing much happens at all but it was all important eventually' in that post.
 
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The low profile but important things and behind the scenes bureaucratic infighting are two of the focuses of this work
Indeed, the attention with which these are lavished are what ensure my continued, if largely silent, readership
 
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Just read the Spanish Civil War chapters (I'm slowly making my way through this behemoth in a not-quite chronological order.) and I must say this was just a fantastic read.

It was very in depth in all the interesting bits, especially regarding to the international soldiers on the nationalist side who aren't mentioned in many history books. I learned more about Portuguese involvement here than in the portuguese high school history classes.

And while the deviations from the real history are there and are far from inconsequential, they are so flawlessly incorporated in the history that I frequently had to go double check if the part I was reading was real history or butterfly effect.

And last but not least, it's fairly neutral without being dry. And neutrality in an account of the Spanish civil war (in both our timeline and alternate history stories) is a fairly rare and savoury treat.

This is probably the best alternate history I've read here, Pip! I'll certainly keep reading, though it might take some time until I've caught up with the present updates.
 
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Just read the Spanish Civil War chapters (I'm slowly making my way through this behemoth in a not-quite chronological order.) and I must say this was just a fantastic read.

Not quite chronological? What order are you using, out of interest?

It was very in depth in all the interesting bits, especially regarding to the international soldiers on the nationalist side who aren't mentioned in many history books

I believe if the Spanish civil war is mentioned at all in the UK (and it isn't), its focusing on the intetnarionale. And that it's where the 5th column thing came from.

neutrality in an account of the Spanish civil war

After the actual democratically elected government bit collapses and its the two extreme sides, there aren't many good guys to side with. The crimes against humanity stuff sorta precludes that sort of thing too.

Mind you, its pretty easy to kill everyone problematic on one side and make them the goodies in alt history, and wipe their bad bits, and that hasn't happened here, even though young Pip did a HOI4 and had the monarchists become the best faction.
 
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Not quite chronological? What order are you using, out of interest?

Mostly by theme (I'm currently reading the more diplomacy/international relations themed entries). Fully aware that's not an ideal way to read a history focused AAR, however.

I believe if the Spanish civil war is mentioned at all in the UK (and it isn't), its focusing on the intetnarionale. And that it's where the 5th column thing came from.

Same here. Though even that part is given in a very superficial manner.

After the actual democratically elected government bit collapses and its the two extreme sides, there aren't many good guys to side with. The crimes against humanity stuff sorta precludes that sort of thing too.
Of course. The problem arises when some authors spend pages and pages dissecting the evils of one of the sides only to then give a short and impersonal summary of the other's. Not saying both sides were equal in their awfulness, or that they were both homogeneous blocks (I think Butterfly Effect does a particularly good job of averting this last pitfall.).

But even if I have quite a heavy preference for the republican side, I still appreciate a recounting that doesn't try to unduly lionise or make saints out of them.

Mind you, its pretty easy to kill everyone problematic on one side and make them the goodies in alt history, and wipe their bad bits, and that hasn't happened here, even though young Pip did a HOI4 and had the monarchists become the best faction.
Indeed.
Never read that one. Maybe when I finish this one, I'll check it out.
 
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Fully aware that's not an ideal way to read a history focused AAR, however.

Doesn't really matter if the history book is by theme rather than by chronological development. I mean, technically this AAR is by chronological development but that will only become really apparent once its completed. Currently and for a long time to come, it's thematic. Tech developments, industry, politics, trade, economics, Spanish civil war.

Indeed.
Never read that one. Maybe when I finish this one, I'll check it out.

With a certain unkindness of spirit, that's what the Carlist coalition between various Conservative groups, the british and the nazis is in this one.

Mostly described it as such because it is unknowingly EXACTLY what HOI4 would do (and indeed, did do) when it comes to finding a third option (thougu eventually they also gave us six options, including the anarchists as a seperate faction determined to kill everyone else). And Pip has gone on to loudly decry monarchist retro factions in HOI4.

For some reason, it is the best option in HOI4 unless you want to create a communist Europe. Every other way to play is easier with the monarchists, and Spain is stronger too.
 
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@El Pip, thank you for the update. It was neither too long or too short, but as Goldilocks would say just right. How long would it take to build the concrete runways at Royal Air Base @El Pip? Are the air bases being built in rural/semi-rural areas? How many people would be at the bases combining flight crews, ground crews and the support personnel? Between the base personnel and the construction workers (construction will be a never-ending process on the bases); the fabric of the local communities will be changed. Is there a particular type of grass used for the runways at Royal Air Base @TheButterflyComposer? How short is the grass kept? Are they using eco-friendly mowers (sheep)? (Recently, I had a conversation with a gentleman who was transporting a load of sheep to the local power company. The sheep were going to be used to control the grass at a solar farm.)

Non Butterfly question. How difficult is the adjustment for drivers when then cross the Channel? Has there been a study done to see if it more difficult for right side drivers to adapt on the Island or left side drivers on the continent? Or does the Chunnel and the ferry have magic pixie dust and everybody has no problems?

Thank you for the time.
 
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Is there a particular type of grass used for the runways at Royal Air Base @TheButterflyComposer? How short is the grass kept? Are they using eco-friendly mowers (sheep)? (Recently, I had a conversation with a gentleman who was transporting a load of sheep to the local power company. The sheep were going to be used to control the grass at a solar farm.)

Good questions...probably more dependant on how good the ground beneath the grass is. Soft loam? Bad. Firm, slightly buoyant? Good. Grass type can help with that, esepcially with water and runoff. So long as the runway is straight, long and consistent, that's rhe main thing. They make runways out of snow, grass, dirt, rock etc where they have to. Sand and mud are the real no nos.

Funnily enough, clearing sheep off runways is a problem, and I imagine it is doubly so for grass turf. But you'd want animals to do it only if the grass was particularly difficult to mechanically remove. At which point, why would you use that type? I know several decorative grasses introduced to the north west by the Victoriana are now being combated with Highland cattle who can really tear it all out and disrupt the soil, making replacing it easier.

Non Butterfly question. How difficult is the adjustment for drivers when then cross the Channel? Has there been a study done to see if it more difficult for right side drivers to adapt on the Island or left side drivers on the continent? Or does the Chunnel and the ferry have magic pixie dust and everybody has no problems?

Consistency is all that really matters, but there is a slight advantage to driving on the left for passenger and driver safety, I believe.
 
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Speaking as someone who has driven mainly on right-driving roads for the vast majority of their lives only to wind up driving a manual transmission, right drive left road for a vacation: it was fairly straightforward to adapt, but definitely I had a massive adrenaline dump after finishing whatever driving I did, all the while thinking to myself of "Think Left Thoughts".
 
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Indeed, the attention with which these are lavished are what ensure my continued, if largely silent, readership
Proving you are a reader of taste and discernment, though should you chose to continue to make even the briefest of comments rest assured they will be appreciated.
Just read the Spanish Civil War chapters (I'm slowly making my way through this behemoth in a not-quite chronological order.) and I must say this was just a fantastic read.
I am delighted those chapters are still appreciated even if read in such a manner.
It was very in depth in all the interesting bits, especially regarding to the international soldiers on the nationalist side who aren't mentioned in many history books. I learned more about Portuguese involvement here than in the portuguese high school history classes.

And while the deviations from the real history are there and are far from inconsequential, they are so flawlessly incorporated in the history that I frequently had to go double check if the part I was reading was real history or butterfly effect.

And last but not least, it's fairly neutral without being dry. And neutrality in an account of the Spanish civil war (in both our timeline and alternate history stories) is a fairly rare and savoury treat.
I'll admit I found it tricky to be neutral about some of the factions, though the hardest was actually the anarchists which surprised me. Not because of the politics or personalities, I think I can be fair about that, but because I still struggle to understand how they thought it would work in wartime. They believed in it and some had spent decades thinking and writing about the theory, but damned if I can work out how anarcho-syndicalist logistics or artillery support was supposed to work.

However if I've hit fairly neutral overall then I am counting that as a win.
This is probably the best alternate history I've read here, Pip! I'll certainly keep reading, though it might take some time until I've caught up with the present updates.
Very kind of you to say. I do hope your non-chronological approach continues to work. :)
I believe if the Spanish civil war is mentioned at all in the UK (and it isn't), its focusing on the intetnarionale. And that it's where the 5th column thing came from.
It did get coverered in my GCSE but was duringthe "All of History is nothing but the Rise of Nazis" era of education and scholarship. So the Condor Legion got a mention and as you say the International Brigdaes (though the Soviet involvment was somewhat downplayed). I occasionally wonder if this obsession on behalf of History teachers has had an unfortunate impact on the discourse
Mind you, its pretty easy to kill everyone problematic on one side and make them the goodies in alt history, and wipe their bad bits, and that hasn't happened here, even though young Pip did a HOI4 and had the monarchists become the best faction.
Overall I stand by Young Pip's choice to kill off a few of the worst on each side and make things a bit less bitter and extreme. At this point you can sketch out 'good' and 'bad' outcomes for Spain regardless of which side wins, which I think adds a bit of interest to things compared to a straight Fascist vs Communist battle.

Mostly by theme (I'm currently reading the more diplomacy/international relations themed entries). Fully aware that's not an ideal way to read a history focused AAR, however.
I do recall a Russian AAR which promised to list things by topic and not chronologically and I remember thinking that sounded a very interesting way to do things. Admittedly it then failed to do so, probably because doing something by topic/theme is probably much harder work than just in date order, but I still think it's an interesting concept.

Do let me know if the theme approach works out for you.
Doesn't really matter if the history book is by theme rather than by chronological development. I mean, technically this AAR is by chronological development but that will only become really apparent once its completed. Currently and for a long time to come, it's thematic. Tech developments, industry, politics, trade, economics, Spanish civil war.
I would say Butterfly Effect is currently a bit of a hybrid. There is always an event/decision/incident/something that is the jumping off point to explore the Theme and those are arranged in Chronological order.

In a different life I might arrange things differently, but that would be one where I have much more time to devote to this project.
With a certain unkindness of spirit, that's what the Carlist coalition between various Conservative groups, the british and the nazis is in this one.

Mostly described it as such because it is unknowingly EXACTLY what HOI4 would do (and indeed, did do) when it comes to finding a third option (thougu eventually they also gave us six options, including the anarchists as a seperate faction determined to kill everyone else). And Pip has gone on to loudly decry monarchist retro factions in HOI4.

For some reason, it is the best option in HOI4 unless you want to create a communist Europe. Every other way to play is easier with the monarchists, and Spain is stronger too.
I think you cover the reason I decry it in HOI4, because the retro monarchist factions are ridiculous and always the 'best' choice (from a gameplay perspective at least) that gloss over, or just get wrong, all the complications that come with them. I like to think that the Butterfly approach is far more mixed, Javier I has stopped a dictator figure emerging, but his presence hasalso stopped any supreme commander being appointed and made the factionalism far worse.

@El Pip, thank you for the update. It was neither too long or too short, but as Goldilocks would say just right. How long would it take to build the concrete runways at Royal Air Base @El Pip? Are the air bases being built in rural/semi-rural areas? How many people would be at the bases combining flight crews, ground crews and the support personnel?
From green field to the first operational flight it was about 12-18months for a Class A RAF base, that's the wartime standard with 3 Concrete runways. Actual construction time could be as low as 10 months, it really did depend on the site and how much work was needed to flatten it and get the drainage sorted. RAF air bases were mostly rural/semi-rural just to get enough flat, cheap land. For a standard two squadron bomber base it could be up to 3,000 people, but that was for full strength squadrons operating 4 engined heavy bombers. A two squadron singel-engied fighter base might be 1,000 or less.
Between the base personnel and the construction workers (construction will be a never-ending process on the bases);
At absolute peak in late 42/early 43 the RAF was commissioning a new Bomber Base every 3 days. They used 30million tonnes of aggregate to lay 135 square km of concrete. The total area of the City of Edinburgh is barely 125. The figures are just staggering.
the fabric of the local communities will be changed. Is there a particular type of grass used for the runways at Royal Air Base @TheButterflyComposer? How short is the grass kept? Are they using eco-friendly mowers (sheep)? (Recently, I had a conversation with a gentleman who was transporting a load of sheep to the local power company. The sheep were going to be used to control the grass at a solar farm.)
Good questions...probably more dependant on how good the ground beneath the grass is. Soft loam? Bad. Firm, slightly buoyant? Good. Grass type can help with that, esepcially with water and runoff. So long as the runway is straight, long and consistent, that's rhe main thing. They make runways out of snow, grass, dirt, rock etc where they have to. Sand and mud are the real no nos.
It was all driven by drainage, the main concern at all times was getting water away from the runways. If the local watertable was low then you'd let it perculate in, if that was not an option you'd want to convey it away as fast as possible. The grass type would be picked to match the drainage plan, subject to the requirement mentioned in the chapter of being tough enough to take taxiing aircraft.

Non Butterfly question. How difficult is the adjustment for drivers when then cross the Channel? Has there been a study done to see if it more difficult for right side drivers to adapt on the Island or left side drivers on the continent? Or does the Chunnel and the ferry have magic pixie dust and everybody has no problems?
Driving on the left is very marginally statistically safer. Most people are right handed which means they are also right eye dominant, so if you drive on the left your stronger eye is nearer the middle and so gets a better field of view. You also leave your dominant hand on the wheel when changing gear so have very slightly better hand-eye co-ordination and reaction time. For most drivers this makes absolutely no difference at all, but across a few hundred million drivers a year it does produce a statistically significant difference, albeit a small one.

I'm not aware of any studies on which is harder to do, I'd imagine you'd get very slightly more problems with the drivers going from driving on the left to the right, purely because of the reason above that driving on the right is 'worse.' But there may not be enough people doing that for it to be even noticeable statistically.
Speaking as someone who has driven mainly on right-driving roads for the vast majority of their lives only to wind up driving a manual transmission, right drive left road for a vacation: it was fairly straightforward to adapt, but definitely I had a massive adrenaline dump after finishing whatever driving I did, all the while thinking to myself of "Think Left Thoughts".
This has been my experience in reverse, it is all fairly straightforward on a mechanical level but you are constantly having to remind yourselt to drive on the 'wrong side' and your muscle memory is all wrong. There is a great deal of relief when the journey is over!

The worst problem I found was not the side of the road but adapting to different car culture and traffic customs. It's not even that they are better or worse just different and so you are often being honked at for doing something which is fine back home but a terrible sin to the locals.
 
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I think you cover the reason I decry it in HOI4, because the retro monarchist factions are ridiculous and always the 'best' choice (from a gameplay perspective at least)

To be fair to HOI4, monarchism really does solve everything. Especially entirely new or retro monarchism lines in republics and militaristic states.
 
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Sadly my hope for more detailed comment with many many questions was squashed by the need to simultaneously prepare everything in my apartment for upcoming baby and renovate parts of parents house so it's suitable for baby (and really human) habitation.

So, given that I forgot the minutia of the update and lack time to re-read it with usual attention to detail, I skimmed it and the thing that I was most interested was "Far Eastern Strategic Operations". Were there concrete plans for strategic bombing of Japan, before WW2? I read about Tiger force and I know prewar plan for war was to blockade the Home Isles, but were there some plans for taking islands for bomber bases or something similar?

I know strategic bombing and Bomber Command were resource hogs and pretty inefficient, but these is some statement of modernity and industrial might when you can show hundreds of 4-engine strategic bombers ready to level your country, acting as a permanent sword of Damocles. Nukes, while much more efficient at destruction, just lack the flair and usability (regular strategic bombing not being as world-ending).

Just imagine a BBC newsreel - tension in Asia, Hong Kong garrison digging in, Eastern Fleet on maneuvers with carriers and battleships, some sort of extended range Lancasters heating up engines and taking to the skies. Late thirties/early forties were truly a golden age of equilibrium of BBs and CVs, early radars being pretty useful but not game winners, air defense being cool puffs of smoke as heavy AA guns blanket the sky. Impressively inefficient of course, but much more fun and visual than being taken down by missile AA (and the world then ends with nukes). And for some reason imagining RN in Operation Pedestal (armored carriers, developed interception and CAP technique, AA cruisers against heavy air attacks) is much more fun to me than drunk-punches-in-the-dark that was IJN-USN carrier battles.

The problem is, I don't think Hong Kong has any room for heavy bomber base :p
 
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Sadly my hope for more detailed comment with many many questions was squashed by the need to simultaneously prepare everything in my apartment for upcoming baby and renovate parts of parents house so it's suitable for baby (and really human) habitation.
Congratulations/commiserations on the impending arrival of a baby. You didn't need all that money, freetime or hobbies really.
So, given that I forgot the minutia of the update and lack time to re-read it with usual attention to detail, I skimmed it and the thing that I was most interested was "Far Eastern Strategic Operations". Were there concrete plans for strategic bombing of Japan, before WW2? I read about Tiger force and I know prewar plan for war was to blockade the Home Isles, but were there some plans for taking islands for bomber bases or something similar?
As far as I can tell, nothing concrete. However the Air Staff were concerned about reinforcing the Far East and so started adding "reinforcement range" to their specifications for the large aircraft, basically the capacity to fly a long way while empty of bombs so the planes could fly themselves out East, that started early 1930s - same time as the Pacific/Far East adapted HMS Ark Royal and the F.5/34 fighter for 'tropical' conditions.

That said the RAF was always pushing for a great role and I believe there were some discussion about how, if the blockade didn't work (blockading the entire Pacific could be a bit tricky), then moving further East to capture some airbases might be required. But the Admiralty managed to convince everyone it would all be fine once the Fleet got to Singapore so no concrete plans were made pre-war.
I know strategic bombing and Bomber Command were resource hogs and pretty inefficient, but these is some statement of modernity and industrial might when you can show hundreds of 4-engine strategic bombers ready to level your country, acting as a permanent sword of Damocles. Nukes, while much more efficient at destruction, just lack the flair and usability (regular strategic bombing not being as world-ending).
This did lead me on something of a rabbit hole - did the Germans actually notice or care about the threat of Strategic Bombing? There is surprisingly little on it, loads on the RAF/USAAF bomber offensive and a far smaller amount on British pre-war plans and fears about Germany bombing the UK, but I've found little on the German view.

A brief search has revealed a bit, the German Air Historical Branches view on the matter, but it was written in 1944 so take with a pinch of salt. Essentially the Luftwaffe had convinced itself it wouldn't be a problem, the RAF was assessed as being almost entirely defensively focused while the French would apparently not attack the German War Economy because they had limited industrial capacity (?).

Yet they also lavished massive resources on the "Air Defence Zone West", a huge set of heavy flak guns and towers in a 30/60km zone back from the Siegfried Line. Twice as many heavy flak guns on the line as the British had in total in 1939 and a huge number of searchlights. Which is very indicative of their thinking, the British aerial defences were assessed as weak due to the low number of flak guns and searchlights - that's how Germany was going to defend the Reich so obviously that is what everyone else would do.
Just imagine a BBC newsreel - tension in Asia, Hong Kong garrison digging in, Eastern Fleet on maneuvers with carriers and battleships, some sort of extended range Lancasters heating up engines and taking to the skies. Late thirties/early forties were truly a golden age of equilibrium of BBs and CVs, early radars being pretty useful but not game winners, air defense being cool puffs of smoke as heavy AA guns blanket the sky. Impressively inefficient of course, but much more fun and visual than being taken down by missile AA (and the world then ends with nukes). And for some reason imagining RN in Operation Pedestal (armored carriers, developed interception and CAP technique, AA cruisers against heavy air attacks) is much more fun to me than drunk-punches-in-the-dark that was IJN-USN carrier battles.
This is why I think an RN vs IJN fight would be interesting, because the two sides have such difference conceptions of carrier warfare both optimised for the war they expected to fight. OTL Pacific War both sides agreed scouting was the key, you had to find the enemy and get the strike in first. Without decent radar and interception tactics defence was dicey at best, a couple of fighters per carrier up on CAP and maybe a pair more to join them after a few minutes, so you can try to defend against a strike but it will be tough. OTL Med was the opposite, the enemy was going to find you and so you had to be able to take a punch and keep going, but the RN had radar and so could mount a fighter defence even with the not exactly optimal Fairey Fulmar.

The South China Sea is far more enclosed, not quite as many choke points as the Med but still only a few obvious routes and plenty of bases for landplanes. I think it comes out as a mix between the Pacific and the Med, hence more interesting.
The problem is, I don't think Hong Kong has any room for heavy bomber base :p
Hence RATO.
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In re: driving on right/wrong sides of the roads: I would say that being on the right, as most people are as pointed out right-handed, they tend to swerve away and thus generally off the roadway in the US, whereas that's into oncoming traffic in the Commonwealth (we in the US see this with left-handed drivers on occasion). I, however, as a member of my agency's Traffic Safety Unit (crash team) get called out to various serious and fatality crashes which generally are all off roadway right, so... Ymmv...
 
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