Thank you for the update. Will the Russians clean up the Berlin rubble by 2000?
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Oh dear. Even with Soviet mistakes and LN support, looks like Korea is going to fall to communism and so is Vietnam. Although in the latter case, this is probably a good thing compared to the alternative. If both those happen, Japan gets another humiliation and China begins to be surrounded on all sides by the Soviet bloc.
Japan's economy is still OTL war situation so is close to collapse, France will take another decade to rebuild properly, Turkey is neutral and the UK is very isolated diplomatically and weak military wise, but still wealthy with no war damage to fix on the islands.
Based on all this, it would still be preferable to both sides if the US and USSR can reach some kind of new consensus like they had immedaitly post war. In fact, its going to be necessary given China and Japan will remain anti-communist but all of their neighbours look like they'll be Soviet or Soviet adjacent (India being neutral or mildly favouring the Soviets). Unless either side wants nuclear ww3 to break out in Asia of course.
Japan's economy is still OTL war situation so is close to collapse, France will take another decade to rebuild properly, Turkey is neutral and the UK is very isolated diplomatically and weak military wise, but still wealthy with no war damage to fix on the islands.
Based on all this, it would still be preferable to both sides if the US and USSR can reach some kind of new consensus like they had immedaitly post war. In fact, its going to be necessary given China and Japan will remain anti-communist but all of their neighbours look like they'll be Soviet or Soviet adjacent (India being neutral or mildly favouring the Soviets). Unless either side wants nuclear ww3 to break out in Asia of course.
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some envelopments seem to be developing on the horizon
I thought they'd first attack Chongyang to envelop the forces in and around Suwon
if only the southerners had a few more divisions, they could've started a neat counterattack from the east coast
what is his (and China's) stance towards East Turkestan and what's the opinion of the government leading there?
in OTL, the Grand National Assembly voted to send a contingent to Korea on this day
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It's tough to see the LN forces getting so easily handled in Korea, but it makes a little bit of sense too with much of the US ability to make war stupidly squandered by the AI during the main game. Aviation and naval force isn't what it should have been. Oh well.
My family and I moved to Warsaw, Poland when I was a wee lad (30 years ago now!) and as I recall there were still lots of buildings there that were still absolutely bullet-ridden from the Second World War. I think being amongst all that history helped develop my fascination with it.
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Thats true. The most advanced armed forces in the world is probably the soviet union, and the most experienced shared between Soviets and Turkey, Japan and Germany close behind.
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A worrying incident. I hope both sides will be keen to avoid further escalation.
It remains to be seen if the German resistance has any teeth. At the moment, I am highly sceptical.
A solid month for North Korea that keeps the LN forces under a great deal of pressure. If the LN falls back on Pusan with shorter front lines and good defensive terrain, I think they will hold. I don't believe Mokp'o can be defended - and certainly not both!
At this point the only consideration is not to lose the war entirely!
This is a very difficult position for Turkey and requires a very careful balancing act. I certainly don't expect to see any substantive Turkish support for the LN effort.
Concerning...
At this point I was contemplating whether the Americans (having agreed to let Cennet conduct her private business) were now taking steps to see nothing came of it. However, it seems bilateral relations between the US and Turkey are more important than the two people they are protecting - and that makes perfect sense.
I am curious who Cennet sent. Ominous indeed!
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Sorry it's been a while between updates, and thus comment feedback, but as you may have gathered TT is on a somewhat more extended timetable these days. Partly busy RL (lots going on, but pretty much all good) and trying to progress the other 3 'live' AARs. And reading other ones! But anyway, we're ready to roll again, so he goes the pre-update recap via previous comments:
May need a little context from you to frame the debate.
It will soon be clear. Perhaps. Mebbe.
Plenty of Korean War, side events and a narrative interlude in the next chapter, so it will be of decent length (including event boxes).
Maybe. Unless even more is created in the interim! Otto may have some input there ...
Korea is looking very shaky and Vietnam will now be hard to hold for a distracted Japan.
As previously mentioned, I have quite a different reading of the Japanese economy. I think it is going to be in significantly better shape than OTL immediate post-war. Never got bombed by the US, much of their continental Asian territory/proxies retained (although many a bit shaky), LNSC member, modus operandi with China (and never had the big ongoing WW2 war with them), something of a rapprochement with the West, burgeoning oil imports from the UGNR. The rest looks about right in my head-canon.
Yes, none of them will want a nuclear GW3, that's for sure. Accidents can happen, but really very unlikely over bits of Asia. Where would the motivation be for either side in that? And despite recent events, I still think its a pretty cold war for now, and not the bristling confrontation in Europe we had in OTL. Sabres may rattle, but they're only being drawn in marginal places for now.
Maybe, we'll see what happens. Harder to simulate in the system I'm using for this war, which is a bit generalised.
Yes, that's a big problem for them now. It makes their defence brittle.
Ah, no idea!
May need a little context from you to frame the debate. I'm broadly basing decisions off OTL milestones, with a bit of liberty taken/adaptation for the ATL circumstances.
Agree on both the sentiment and the rationale. I may have stacked the little game system a bit too much in NK's favour here, or maybe it was just the starting situation and RNG.
Interesting. My father left it in about 1946 as a nine-year-old. Don't think there were too many bricks sitting on top of each other by then!
Yes, well experienced, not really tracking the equipment, training and doctrine stuff now. I'd say, as Wraith has observed, that the US would be even weaker that department in Korea in ATL than they were in OTL - and that wasn't really too good in 1950, either, even after winning WW2.
More an isolated clash I think. Perhaps more aware of and accepting of such 'incidents' then as now.
I think you're right to be sceptical there. Though Skorzeny is the more flashy but perhaps marginal example. The real meat would be in any genuine mass civil disobedience or worse, should that develop.
These are good assessments. The LN wants to hold Mokp'o if it can for as long as possible to allow for ROK reinforcements to continue coming, but if the line is stretched to far or broken, then yes it would have to be back to Pusan. It's a matter of timing ...
Quite. Though that may be beyond the LN if things get a little worse.
This will be an RNG event with a range of possible outcomes and then narrative implications. All shall be revealed soon.
Yes ... and no!Concerning...
At this point I was contemplating whether the Americans (having agreed to let Cennet conduct her private business) were now taking steps to see nothing came of it. However, it seems bilateral relations between the US and Turkey are more important than the two people they are protecting - and that makes perfect sense.
I am curious who Cennet sent. Ominous indeed!
It will soon be clear. Perhaps. Mebbe. Plenty of Korean War, side events and a narrative interlude in the next chapter, so it will be of decent length (including event boxes).
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Chapter 280: October 1950
Chapter 280: October 1950
Korean War: 1-7 October
As usual, reinforcements and replacements arrived for both sides at the start of the month (all marked in green below). The LN Coalition forces took on one new division from the LN (the last of the initial four programmed divisions), South Korea received one new and one replacement division and Japan, whose three initial reinforcement divisions had been deployed, received one replacement for a formation destroyed in September, with the latter also receiving a replacement for one of their previously destroyed divisions. North Korea received one new division and they and the PRC received one replacement each from the previous month’s casualties.
North Korea launched its decisive attack on Ch’ongyang, which had just been reinforced with the replacement Japanese division.
The ferocious North Korean attack begins on Ch’ongyang, 1 October 1950.
The DPRK managed to mass 16 divisions against the three Japanese-ROK defending formations to give them combat power odds of 4-1. US air support [die roll 9-1] only meant the entire defensive position was destroyed rather than overrun with survivors forced to surrender.
It was a devastating loss of men at the start of the month that the LN Coalition could ill-afford. But in a surprise move, a light screen was put in at Kunsan on the west of the line while in the centre, a bold counter-attack was made on the exposed North Korean defence in Ch’ongju, from which forces had been stripped for the attack on Ch’ongyang. It was hoped that if the enemy forces could be destroyed there, the odds elsewhere might be evened up a little, partly offsetting the terrible loss earlier in the week.
But the attack was only partially successful [4 rolled], with the North and South Koreans losing a division each and the surviving enemy forced to retreat. It did however distract the Communists somewhat, when two LN divisions were pushed up into the gap.
A Californian Shooting Gallery
As Bud and Perse reacted in shock to the figure who entered the conference room in the FBI’s San Francisco field office, that person moved out of the doorway and across the table from the couple. It was none other that Cennet Kavgaci herself, Head of S.I.T.H. since the end of GW2.
“I know you weren’t expecting me, but … well here I am,” Cennet said then held up a calming – or warning, it wasn’t clear – hand as Bud started to rise to his feet, fists clenched. “Either way, after this meeting I am going to shoot you,” she finished, with a sardonic grin on her face.
“Either way, after this meeting I am going to shoot you.”
Bud’s face went beetroot red with anger, Perse’s blanched white. But neither panicked – yet. Bud calmed himself a little, with some difficulty, and asked as coolly as he could: “You what?”
“You what?”
“Well, specifically, we wish to shoot Perse. But you can watch, if you like.” As Bud’s eyes narrowed and he started losing it again, Cennet’s little Mona Lisa smirk intensified. “Oh, we have the permission of your American friends. In fact, they’re quite keen to support us.”
At this Bud stood up in a mounting rage, but Perse put a restraining hand on his arm.
“It’s alright Wendell, calm down. Our old friend here is having a lend of us, I think,” remarked Perse, before turning her attention back to Cennet with a mix of irritation and admiration. “You have had your fun with us, Miss Kavgaci. Enough. What do you really want with us?”
“What do you really want with us?”
“Oh, to shoot you.”
Bud bridled again and Perse just rolled her eyes.
The FBI Special Agent sitting in on the meeting coughed pointedly and then interjected, “Come now, Miss Kavgaci, I know you have an axe to grind with these two – no, a figurative one – but let us get to the point now, shall we?”
“Very well,” said Cennet, raising her hands in mock surrender, “But I did owe you that much at least Perse, for all the trouble you gave us back during the war as The Rose. We want to shoot a movie, here in Hollywood and on location, bankrolled by the Turkish government but designed to glorify our wartime exploits in combination with our US Marine brothers in the Balkans. And also as a propaganda blockbuster to boost our image in the wider UGNR and especially in those states now within the wider Bucharest Pact.”
She paused for a moment, then continued, “We anticipate a likely future cooling of relations with our Soviet friends after the great Uncle Joe leaves the stage. Perhaps even beforehand. We don’t fancy his likely successors and what they may try to do to undermine our position in central and southern Europe. And those areas are restive enough as it is. You are glamorous, famous and a genuine heroine of the war. And us cooperating on this will demonstrate there are no hard feelings between us any more. You can rest in peace from any threat we may once have posed. And be handsomely rewarded, too.”
“And if we refuse, I suppose all bets are off?” remarked Perse with a knowing eye.
“You may say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment,” was Cennet’s straight-faced response.
“I think, as we used to say during the war when talking with our Italian friends, you have presented me with an offer we can’t refuse. We are at your service,” said Perse, looking at both her American sponsor, who gave a curt nod, and new ‘business partner’ Cennet in turn. “Who else did you have in mind for this extravaganza?”
In answer, the G-Man brought out a Manilla envelope and took two pictures out of it, spreading them on the table. “We thought these guys might fit the bill for what we have in mind on the American side.”
John Wayne and Audie Murphy.
“And we will provide the appropriate Turkish talent," said Cennet. "There will likely be some location work, possibly in and around Timisoara and elsewhere – Croatia too, perhaps. And Wendell here can be your personal bodyguard in additional to the security detail we can provide. You will like Dubrovnik. South LA it is not.”
“It’s a deal!” was Perse’s definitive answer after a brief exchange of glances with Bud. After all, implied death threats from S.I.T.H. should never be taken lightly, even if offered in supposed jest. And this could be their ticket to freedom and an open life. With plenty of cash dollars, to boot!
Other Events: 1-7 October
On 1 October, Võ Nguyên Giáp led Communist troops in the northern section of the Japanese Indochina puppet state of Vietnam in a campaign of attacks on Japanese-Vietnamese positions along the border with China, which had been thinned out in recent weeks due to the demands of the Korean War.
Viet Minh troops took advantage of weakened Japanese support for the puppet Vietnamese regime near the Chinese border, October 1950.
On 7 October Chiang Kai-Shek [Mao in OTL] sent 40,000 troops to invade Eastern Tibet (Kham). They swiftly overran the 7,000 or 8,000 badly-trained and ill-equipped Tibetan troops, killing 5,700 of them at Chamdo.
Nationalist China invades Tibet, 7 October 1950.
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Korean War: 8-15 October
North Korea was indeed tempted by the opportunity to destroy one or (if they were lucky) even two LN divisions in Ch’ongju, though it came at a risk. As it happened, the attack was very poorly executed and the LN defence exemplary [1 die roll, so the air support couldn’t make the result any worse for the North].
This resulted in all 16 divisions that had been massed for the attack being thrown back from Ch’onan, Wanju and Chech’on in disarray by local LN counter attacks.
Members of the Belgian Volunteer Corps, part of the LN Division that successfully repelled the North Korean attack on Ch’ongju, take a break after the battle, 15 October 1950.
If the Coalition had not taken so many casualties recently, they may have been able to pour forward to reoccupy the previous river defences east of Suwon. But this would have widened the length of the overall line and made it highly vulnerable to multiple Communist attacks. In the end, it was decided to counter-attack the isolated DPRK division in Ch’ongyang in the hope of taking an enemy division out of the fight while not extending the line. At local odds of 5-1, there were high hopes – but the attack was underwhelming [4 rolled] and the North Koreans were able to retreat in good order.
On 10 October, the Turkey government debated whether it should enter the Korean War on the side of the LN. It was proposed in Cabinet that an advance party of the Turkish Brigade at should deploy to Pusan, with around 5,200 more troops following up five days later.
In the end, despite the risks of Soviet disapproval, Milli Şef Inönü and his colleagues were firmly of the view that the LN was in need, the DPRK’s actions had been illegal and that Turkey’s responsibility as an LNSC member meant that an immediate deployment was called for [die roll 2]. The Turkish Brigade was fully deployed in Pusan by 15 October and would soon begin sending troops to the front as soon as they were reorganised and liaison completed.
Turkish troops shortly after their arrival in Pusan, October 1950. They were assigned to the LN division guarding the key port, so were not involved in any direct major combat that month.
Other Events: 8-15 October
Outnumbered 10 to 1, several battalions of Japanese and Vietnamese army troops in Vietnam were killed, wounded, or taken prisoner by Viet Minh guerrillas on 9 October after retreating from the garrison at Cao Bằng.
Germany held its first post-war national elections on 15 October, with voting taking place for the Parliament and for regional, local and communal legislative bodies. In what was referred to (almost comically) as "the most democratic" elections ever held in Germany, and various political parties were identified, voters were asked to vote "yes" or "no" on a slate of candidates that had been drawn up by the Communist-dominated National Front. The choice was to approve or reject all candidates on the ballot. According to official figures, there was an 87.44% turnout of eligible voters, and 99.72% of them voted "yes" for the candidates. Otto Grotewohl was made the nation's first Prime Minister following the election.
German Prime Minister Otto Grotewohl after the ‘democratic’ DDR election of October 1950.
---xxx---
Korean War: 16-23 October
The North recovered from its temporary setbacks the week before and decided to repeat their attack on Ch’ongju. This caught the defending LN and ROK divisions in a vicious 5-1 attack – and this time it was again only air support that prevented the entire force from surrendering [9 rolled, -1 for the CAS = 8]. As it was, both were wiped out as effective fighting forces. It was the first time an LN division had been destroyed in the war so far.
And it proved the strategic turning point for a now dispirited General MacArthur. Despite some successes the week before, there were simply no longer the troops to hold the line. It would be debated as to whether it should have been done after the first loss at Ch’ongyang, but the LN-Japan Coalition now pulled back all the way to the smaller and more easily defended Pusan Perimeter.
The aim was to hold on stronger lines while reinforcements in November would somewhat replenish the line and make it simply too hard for the North to crack without taking considerable risks. Taegu was seen as the most vulnerable point, with the North potentially able to attack it from four directions, though three of those were across rivers. All the remaining Japanese and ROK troops left were concentrated there, while the strong LN divisions would try to hold the rest of the perimeter.
The hills of Taegu, Pusan Perimeter, October 1950.
Other Events: 16-23 October
Ngabo Ngawang Jigme, the Governor of Eastern Tibet and the commander of Tibetan troops, surrendered the Kham province to China's General Wang Chimi on 19 October.
Nationalist Chinese troops advancing into Tibet, mid-October 1950. They met little significant resistance.
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Korean War: 24-31 October
During the last week of the month North Korean forces closed up to the Pusan Perimeter and occupied the rest of South Korea, including the key city of Mokp’o [2 VP]. But the defences of Taegu were too strong and the DPRK troops to recently arrived for them to risk a direct assault. Instead, a few divisions were added to those already in place in Tonghae, where a single-front corps strength attack was launched on the LN troops occupying the hills of Ulchin. The attack was prosecuted with great vigour [10 rolled, -1 CAS = 9] and in a terrible blow, the defending LN division was destroyed as a fighting force.
US troops of the LN division shattered in Ulchin retreat south, 24 October 1950.
The whole LN position in South Korea now rested on a knife’s edge. A screening ROK division was left in Taegu and could be boosted by reinforcements at the start of November. And winter (December-February) would give added impetus to the defence [a -1 for each attacking die roll throughout] if only the LN could last that long. The fall-back to the Pusan Perimiter and then the loss of Ulchin had resulted in a large part of South Korea falling under the Communist yoke during October.
Unless something changed the momentum on the battlefield – such a MacArthur’s call for two US Marine divisions to be sent on an amphibious end run to upset and distract the Communist defence – the war looked to be heading towards a loss for the LN. The only other possibility was to persuade Japan to launch an attack across the Yalu River from Manchuria – but that would risk Soviet intervention, whether just in North Korea or across the whole shared Japanese-Soviet border in Asia.
Other Events: 24-31 October
On 26 October the government of India ruled out military intervention in the Chinese invasion of Tibet, and advised China that it would limit its response to diplomacy.
The following day, at a meeting in the territory of a former "princely state" that was claimed by both India and Pakistan after the breakup of British India but that had gone fully to India, the LN-sponsored Jammu & Kashmir Conference proposed a resolution to help resolve the sore point between the two countries.
LNSC voting in Geneva to approve Resolution 80 on 27 October 1950, calling on both sides to allow peaceful determination of Kashmir’s final border by a constituent assembly to be elected under LN supervision.
If approved, a constituent assembly would be elected in an LN-supervised vote to determine the final disposition of the area.
This map shows the traditional boundaries of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir (thick maroon line). In ATL, all the non-Chinese parts were occupied by India on partition. The northern area (Baltistan), claimed by Pakistan in OTL, we will consider the part they believe should be in Pakistan as a minimum, but have so far not pressed as hard for in ATL.
This simplified map shows how things have been divided in OTL to the present, with the India-Pakistan and India-China lines of control.
If granted, this would be something of a concession by India but might offer them international legitimacy and even grudging Pakistani acceptance of their rule if they won – but at the risk of partly losing control of the province. Pakistan agreed to the idea immediately, of course. But would Nehru and his government be prepared to take the risk for the possible greater reward? [The Indian Cabinet decision and Pakistani reactions will be subject to contingent die rolls in the November update.]
---xxx---
Korean War: 1-7 October
As usual, reinforcements and replacements arrived for both sides at the start of the month (all marked in green below). The LN Coalition forces took on one new division from the LN (the last of the initial four programmed divisions), South Korea received one new and one replacement division and Japan, whose three initial reinforcement divisions had been deployed, received one replacement for a formation destroyed in September, with the latter also receiving a replacement for one of their previously destroyed divisions. North Korea received one new division and they and the PRC received one replacement each from the previous month’s casualties.
The ferocious North Korean attack begins on Ch’ongyang, 1 October 1950.
The DPRK managed to mass 16 divisions against the three Japanese-ROK defending formations to give them combat power odds of 4-1. US air support [die roll 9-1] only meant the entire defensive position was destroyed rather than overrun with survivors forced to surrender.
As United Nations forces continued to drive northward in North Korea, on 2 October China's leader, Mao Zedong, convened a special session of the Communist Party Politburo and made the decision to enter the Korean War, sending a request for military assistance to Soviet leader Joseph Stalin the same day.
The next day, Mao Zedong hosted India's ambassador to China, K. M. Panikkar, at his residence in Beijing and asked him to inform the United States that China would invade Korea if American troops crossed the 38th Parallel into North Korea, but not if the invasion was limited to South Korean troops alone. U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson received Pannikar's message later in the day, but the United States did not alter its progress toward the Chinese border.
The next day, Mao Zedong hosted India's ambassador to China, K. M. Panikkar, at his residence in Beijing and asked him to inform the United States that China would invade Korea if American troops crossed the 38th Parallel into North Korea, but not if the invasion was limited to South Korean troops alone. U.S. Secretary of State Dean Acheson received Pannikar's message later in the day, but the United States did not alter its progress toward the Chinese border.
---xxx---
A Californian Shooting Gallery
As Bud and Perse reacted in shock to the figure who entered the conference room in the FBI’s San Francisco field office, that person moved out of the doorway and across the table from the couple. It was none other that Cennet Kavgaci herself, Head of S.I.T.H. since the end of GW2.
“I know you weren’t expecting me, but … well here I am,” Cennet said then held up a calming – or warning, it wasn’t clear – hand as Bud started to rise to his feet, fists clenched. “Either way, after this meeting I am going to shoot you,” she finished, with a sardonic grin on her face.
“Either way, after this meeting I am going to shoot you.”
Bud’s face went beetroot red with anger, Perse’s blanched white. But neither panicked – yet. Bud calmed himself a little, with some difficulty, and asked as coolly as he could: “You what?”
“You what?”
“Well, specifically, we wish to shoot Perse. But you can watch, if you like.” As Bud’s eyes narrowed and he started losing it again, Cennet’s little Mona Lisa smirk intensified. “Oh, we have the permission of your American friends. In fact, they’re quite keen to support us.”
At this Bud stood up in a mounting rage, but Perse put a restraining hand on his arm.
“It’s alright Wendell, calm down. Our old friend here is having a lend of us, I think,” remarked Perse, before turning her attention back to Cennet with a mix of irritation and admiration. “You have had your fun with us, Miss Kavgaci. Enough. What do you really want with us?”
“What do you really want with us?”
“Oh, to shoot you.”
Bud bridled again and Perse just rolled her eyes.
The FBI Special Agent sitting in on the meeting coughed pointedly and then interjected, “Come now, Miss Kavgaci, I know you have an axe to grind with these two – no, a figurative one – but let us get to the point now, shall we?”
“Very well,” said Cennet, raising her hands in mock surrender, “But I did owe you that much at least Perse, for all the trouble you gave us back during the war as The Rose. We want to shoot a movie, here in Hollywood and on location, bankrolled by the Turkish government but designed to glorify our wartime exploits in combination with our US Marine brothers in the Balkans. And also as a propaganda blockbuster to boost our image in the wider UGNR and especially in those states now within the wider Bucharest Pact.”
She paused for a moment, then continued, “We anticipate a likely future cooling of relations with our Soviet friends after the great Uncle Joe leaves the stage. Perhaps even beforehand. We don’t fancy his likely successors and what they may try to do to undermine our position in central and southern Europe. And those areas are restive enough as it is. You are glamorous, famous and a genuine heroine of the war. And us cooperating on this will demonstrate there are no hard feelings between us any more. You can rest in peace from any threat we may once have posed. And be handsomely rewarded, too.”
“And if we refuse, I suppose all bets are off?” remarked Perse with a knowing eye.
“You may say that, but I couldn’t possibly comment,” was Cennet’s straight-faced response.
“I think, as we used to say during the war when talking with our Italian friends, you have presented me with an offer we can’t refuse. We are at your service,” said Perse, looking at both her American sponsor, who gave a curt nod, and new ‘business partner’ Cennet in turn. “Who else did you have in mind for this extravaganza?”
In answer, the G-Man brought out a Manilla envelope and took two pictures out of it, spreading them on the table. “We thought these guys might fit the bill for what we have in mind on the American side.”
John Wayne and Audie Murphy.
“And we will provide the appropriate Turkish talent," said Cennet. "There will likely be some location work, possibly in and around Timisoara and elsewhere – Croatia too, perhaps. And Wendell here can be your personal bodyguard in additional to the security detail we can provide. You will like Dubrovnik. South LA it is not.”
“It’s a deal!” was Perse’s definitive answer after a brief exchange of glances with Bud. After all, implied death threats from S.I.T.H. should never be taken lightly, even if offered in supposed jest. And this could be their ticket to freedom and an open life. With plenty of cash dollars, to boot!
---xxx---
Other Events: 1-7 October
On 1 October, Võ Nguyên Giáp led Communist troops in the northern section of the Japanese Indochina puppet state of Vietnam in a campaign of attacks on Japanese-Vietnamese positions along the border with China, which had been thinned out in recent weeks due to the demands of the Korean War.
Viet Minh troops took advantage of weakened Japanese support for the puppet Vietnamese regime near the Chinese border, October 1950.
On 7 October Chiang Kai-Shek [Mao in OTL] sent 40,000 troops to invade Eastern Tibet (Kham). They swiftly overran the 7,000 or 8,000 badly-trained and ill-equipped Tibetan troops, killing 5,700 of them at Chamdo.
Nationalist China invades Tibet, 7 October 1950.
---xxx---
Korean War: 8-15 October
North Korea was indeed tempted by the opportunity to destroy one or (if they were lucky) even two LN divisions in Ch’ongju, though it came at a risk. As it happened, the attack was very poorly executed and the LN defence exemplary [1 die roll, so the air support couldn’t make the result any worse for the North].
Members of the Belgian Volunteer Corps, part of the LN Division that successfully repelled the North Korean attack on Ch’ongju, take a break after the battle, 15 October 1950.
If the Coalition had not taken so many casualties recently, they may have been able to pour forward to reoccupy the previous river defences east of Suwon. But this would have widened the length of the overall line and made it highly vulnerable to multiple Communist attacks. In the end, it was decided to counter-attack the isolated DPRK division in Ch’ongyang in the hope of taking an enemy division out of the fight while not extending the line. At local odds of 5-1, there were high hopes – but the attack was underwhelming [4 rolled] and the North Koreans were able to retreat in good order.
Die roll:
- 1-4, deployment approved;
- 5-7, deployment rejected;
- 8-9, decision deferred until the end of the month to assess events; or
- 10, decision deferred until the end of the year.
In the end, despite the risks of Soviet disapproval, Milli Şef Inönü and his colleagues were firmly of the view that the LN was in need, the DPRK’s actions had been illegal and that Turkey’s responsibility as an LNSC member meant that an immediate deployment was called for [die roll 2]. The Turkish Brigade was fully deployed in Pusan by 15 October and would soon begin sending troops to the front as soon as they were reorganised and liaison completed.
Turkish troops shortly after their arrival in Pusan, October 1950. They were assigned to the LN division guarding the key port, so were not involved in any direct major combat that month.
On 14 October the Thirteenth Corps of China's People's Volunteer Army marched across the Yalu River that marked the border between China and North Korea, becoming the first of hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops to invade the Korean Peninsula.
---xxx---
Other Events: 8-15 October
Outnumbered 10 to 1, several battalions of Japanese and Vietnamese army troops in Vietnam were killed, wounded, or taken prisoner by Viet Minh guerrillas on 9 October after retreating from the garrison at Cao Bằng.
Germany held its first post-war national elections on 15 October, with voting taking place for the Parliament and for regional, local and communal legislative bodies. In what was referred to (almost comically) as "the most democratic" elections ever held in Germany, and various political parties were identified, voters were asked to vote "yes" or "no" on a slate of candidates that had been drawn up by the Communist-dominated National Front. The choice was to approve or reject all candidates on the ballot. According to official figures, there was an 87.44% turnout of eligible voters, and 99.72% of them voted "yes" for the candidates. Otto Grotewohl was made the nation's first Prime Minister following the election.
German Prime Minister Otto Grotewohl after the ‘democratic’ DDR election of October 1950.
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Korean War: 16-23 October
The North recovered from its temporary setbacks the week before and decided to repeat their attack on Ch’ongju. This caught the defending LN and ROK divisions in a vicious 5-1 attack – and this time it was again only air support that prevented the entire force from surrendering [9 rolled, -1 for the CAS = 8]. As it was, both were wiped out as effective fighting forces. It was the first time an LN division had been destroyed in the war so far.
The hills of Taegu, Pusan Perimeter, October 1950.
United Nations troops won the Battle of Pyongyang on 19 October, as American troops from the United States Army's 1st Cavalry became the first U.S. forces to march into Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea. After fighting a final battle with North Korean forces at Chunghwa, the cavalry drove the remaining ten miles to find that the city was nearly deserted.
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Other Events: 16-23 October
Ngabo Ngawang Jigme, the Governor of Eastern Tibet and the commander of Tibetan troops, surrendered the Kham province to China's General Wang Chimi on 19 October.
Nationalist Chinese troops advancing into Tibet, mid-October 1950. They met little significant resistance.
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Korean War: 24-31 October
During the last week of the month North Korean forces closed up to the Pusan Perimeter and occupied the rest of South Korea, including the key city of Mokp’o [2 VP]. But the defences of Taegu were too strong and the DPRK troops to recently arrived for them to risk a direct assault. Instead, a few divisions were added to those already in place in Tonghae, where a single-front corps strength attack was launched on the LN troops occupying the hills of Ulchin. The attack was prosecuted with great vigour [10 rolled, -1 CAS = 9] and in a terrible blow, the defending LN division was destroyed as a fighting force.
US troops of the LN division shattered in Ulchin retreat south, 24 October 1950.
The whole LN position in South Korea now rested on a knife’s edge. A screening ROK division was left in Taegu and could be boosted by reinforcements at the start of November. And winter (December-February) would give added impetus to the defence [a -1 for each attacking die roll throughout] if only the LN could last that long. The fall-back to the Pusan Perimiter and then the loss of Ulchin had resulted in a large part of South Korea falling under the Communist yoke during October.
The Battle of Onjong, the first major battle in the Korean War between the Chinese and United Nations forces, began after Communist Chinese forces encountered a regiment of the 6th Division of the South Korean Army on 25 October.
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Other Events: 24-31 October
On 26 October the government of India ruled out military intervention in the Chinese invasion of Tibet, and advised China that it would limit its response to diplomacy.
The following day, at a meeting in the territory of a former "princely state" that was claimed by both India and Pakistan after the breakup of British India but that had gone fully to India, the LN-sponsored Jammu & Kashmir Conference proposed a resolution to help resolve the sore point between the two countries.
LNSC voting in Geneva to approve Resolution 80 on 27 October 1950, calling on both sides to allow peaceful determination of Kashmir’s final border by a constituent assembly to be elected under LN supervision.
If approved, a constituent assembly would be elected in an LN-supervised vote to determine the final disposition of the area.
This map shows the traditional boundaries of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir (thick maroon line). In ATL, all the non-Chinese parts were occupied by India on partition. The northern area (Baltistan), claimed by Pakistan in OTL, we will consider the part they believe should be in Pakistan as a minimum, but have so far not pressed as hard for in ATL.
This simplified map shows how things have been divided in OTL to the present, with the India-Pakistan and India-China lines of control.
If granted, this would be something of a concession by India but might offer them international legitimacy and even grudging Pakistani acceptance of their rule if they won – but at the risk of partly losing control of the province. Pakistan agreed to the idea immediately, of course. But would Nehru and his government be prepared to take the risk for the possible greater reward? [The Indian Cabinet decision and Pakistani reactions will be subject to contingent die rolls in the November update.]
Die roll:
a. 1-4, proposal approved;
b. 5-7, proposal rejected out of hand;
c. 8-9, decision deferred for further consideration for six months;
d. 10, proposal rejected and India pre-emptively mobilises and increases its garrison in Kashmir.
a. 1-4, proposal approved;
b. 5-7, proposal rejected out of hand;
c. 8-9, decision deferred for further consideration for six months;
d. 10, proposal rejected and India pre-emptively mobilises and increases its garrison in Kashmir.
- If a. Pakistan-India relations improve to a new high, both sides prepare for a democratic campaign.
- If b. Relations sour. Die Roll:
- 1-4 no other response;
- 5-7 Pakistani rhetoric heats up, later chance of escalation;
- 8-9 Pakistan mobilises, heightened risk of war in coming months, insurgent groups start to form in Muslim-majority areas of Jammu-Kashmir;
- 10 Pakistan mobilises and privately commits to attack as soon as they are ready.
- If c. Relations more tense but not too badly damaged. Die Roll:
- 1-7 no other response;
- 8-9 Pakistani rhetoric heats up, later chance of escalation;
- 10 Pakistan mobilises, heightened risk of war in coming months, insurgent groups start to form to exert limited pressure on India in Jammu-Kashmir.
- If d. War Beckons. Die Roll:
- 1 Pakistan backs down, government crisis;
- 2-7 Pakistan mobilises defensively and seeks LN intervention;
- 8-10 Pakistan mobilises and threatens war, seeks LN sanctions against India.
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Love Audie Murphy! NK getting great rolls. Pakistan can dream about LN help while Korea is ongoing. Thanks
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Better shape in that they went bankrupt slower than OTL, but given how massively overly extended the Japanese miktiary was by the end of the war, they're still hurting for money. Plus Japan hasn't really had a moments peace since then. They've been fighting in China, Vietnam and Korea ever since, can't demobalise or demilitarised, and indeed, must maintain and extend their armed forces.
Basically, as soon as the withdrawal from these colonial spats stop (or if they keep going for the rest of the decade even), Japan WILL go bankrupt and collapse into a crisis of its own making.
Politically and socially, Japan has now been at War non stop for 25 years and the populace, with a bump of approval for 'winning' their part of WW2, are going to go right back to not supporting unpopular, never ending and expensive wars which keep killing thousands of Japanese soldiers.
So whilst Japan is, in some respects, in a better place TTL, it has most of its OTL WW2 problems still ongoing, and none of the post war solutions in place.
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Uyghurs in East Turkestan are (and also at that time were) the largest contingent of Turkic people who didn't have at least a sort of local autonomy. I met one a couple of years ago and it was crazy that even though geographically they're one of the furthest Turkic peoples, we were mutually intelligible and were able to hold a conversation. During his lifetime Inonu did have too much on his plate when East Turkestan (Xinjiang in game) was still independent, and was powerless to dictate anything to the pre-Sino-Soviet split Comintern when it was already under Chinese control. There were several factions and 2 short lived republics in the tumultuous first half of the 20th century in that area, some aligned with Russian Communists, some with Chinese communists, some islamist, some nationalist and so on. Isa Yusuf Alptekin was of the conservative side and more or less affiliated with KMT despite some disagreements. He appealed to Inonu a lot for support, but for the aforementioned reasons Inonu couldn't do much. With KMT losing the war he lived the rest of his life in exile trying to prop up support for the Uyghur cause.Ah, no idea!
In our timeline with KMT being victorious but East Turkestan managing to stay independent (Alptekin asked for renouncing their claims from Taiwan during the cold war but was denied), and Turkey being one of the majorish powers of the world, I think Inonu would have more bandwidth for Alptekin, and Alptekin would have more clout. An East Turkestan more able to assert its borders but is in search for allies that are neither communist nor too foreign while avoiding the fate of Tibet, a KMT that renounces claims to a friendly regime in return for something else, UGNR that creates a non-affiliated corridor from the Chinese Sea to Western Mediterranean; I think there should be some kind of friendship between UGNR and East Turkestan (and also a name change of the country
)quite the power move! and I didn't expect at all what was to come!
that's a nice team
This is SO scary for East Turkestan.
I regret so much not being able to be more convincing and proactive during the peace talks and manage to pull off that gambit that would've kept them independent.
RNG still isn't kind when it's out of the PC and in the dice
Related to the East Turkestan issue above, both East Turkestan and UGNR would be interested in Aksai Chin and the very north of Gilgit-Baltistan regions, in effect the Karakorum mountain range. Both for historical reasons, Uyghurs living in Aksai Chin region reasons (for example see the southwest corner of the map here https://www.britannica.com/place/Turkistan) and it's just around the thin sliver of very undeveloped land that UGNR and East Turkestan share a border. I also suggest some building of infrastructure (something like an Urumqi-Tehran train line supposing we already connected Tehran well with the core railway infrastructure).
I don't know if that would affect the die rolls, but we'll support anybody who'll back us with regards to East Turkestan and where Uyghurs live.
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@diskoerekto, how strongly would Turkey be backing the Turkic speaking peoples of the Soviet Union getting autonomy?
Regarding Germany, the most important person in a democracy is not the person who votes, but the person who counts the votes. 75% of the German electorate is kicking themselves for being the only person foolish enough to vote NO and they are too scared to admit their error.
Regarding Germany, the most important person in a democracy is not the person who votes, but the person who counts the votes. 75% of the German electorate is kicking themselves for being the only person foolish enough to vote NO and they are too scared to admit their error.
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At this stage, with good relations to uncle Joe and with USSR still being much more powerful than UGNR, they cannot do much except using good relations with USSR to do something for the Turkic people of USSR. The good thing is in USSR they still have a degree of autonomy, much better compared to the Uyghurs of China.
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This month has seen a series of disasters befall the LN cause in Korea and the situation now looks extremely precarious. Reinforcements and the onset of winter might just allow the LN to stay in this. Perhaps.
In addition to losing divisions in Korea, Japan's other problems are escalating. The entire GEACPS might be poised to implode?
That was an unexpectedly bold move by the Milli Şef - and probably the first decision he's made that puts him at odds with Stalin.
So far in this timeline the dispute over Kashmir has been handled well. Hopefully this dialogue also ends positively and steers the region away from conflict.
I didn't see that coming!
I figured the Americans would insist nothing happened on their turf but I imagined Bud and Perse were about to 'extradited' to Turkey...
And they'd rather have the genuine article than hire Veronica Lake? For Perse, paying off her debt by doing what she does best isn't an altogether bad option. The trick is to remain more useful to Turkey alive than dead!
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Another excellent Update.
Korea:
The arrival of Turkish forces is an interesting development. Pulling back from Seoul does put the South on the back door here. Let's hope they can still turn the tide.
Cennet in America:
This movie business really does sound like another ruse to get Perse back into UGNR territory so that a 'freak accident' may befall her... Of course accident or not, the resulting movie is going to be great propaganda, and a clear sign of Turkish-American rapprochement. Even killing Pers won't change the geopolitics at play...
All the best.
Korea:
The arrival of Turkish forces is an interesting development. Pulling back from Seoul does put the South on the back door here. Let's hope they can still turn the tide.
Cennet in America:
This movie business really does sound like another ruse to get Perse back into UGNR territory so that a 'freak accident' may befall her... Of course accident or not, the resulting movie is going to be great propaganda, and a clear sign of Turkish-American rapprochement. Even killing Pers won't change the geopolitics at play...
All the best.
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Just wanted to drop a post saying that I'm slowly (very slowly!) working my way through this AAR and enjoying it tremendously so far! I find your writing both entertaining and easy to follow, despite having largely skipped over HOI3 myself.
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Lovely to hear! Please feel free to ask any questions or make any comments you wish from past episodes, I’m always happy to reminisce!
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Lovely to hear! Please feel free to ask any questions or make any comments you wish from past episodes, I’m always happy to reminisce!
It was a grand adventure, wasn't it? I really hope you can find another nation with that kind of potential but also pushing their luck style tension before inevitable ww2 situation.
And I'm still amazed you managed to pull off what you did before it all kicked off.
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