Thank you for the update. Will the Russians clean up the Berlin rubble by 2000?
- 2
- 1
From a hidden location, Otto Skorzeny vowed to “Demolish a Stalinistic Monstrosity in return for this act of cultural vandalism – at a time of our choosing.”
some envelopments seem to be developing on the horizon
I thought they'd first attack Chongyang to envelop the forces in and around SuwonThe crucial attack of the Great Naktong Offensive began on 17 September when nine DPRK divisions attacked Suwon from three directions. Those attacking across the rivers from the north did so with considerably diminished combat power, but combined it was enough to give combat odds of 4-1. The defenders had the advantage of both an urban environment and LN air power to aid their defence: despite the odds, the result was very much in the balance.
if only the southerners had a few more divisions, they could've started a neat counterattack from the east coast
what is his (and China's) stance towards East Turkestan and what's the opinion of the government leading there?Ismet Inönü was still trying to keep his sprawling but potentially fragile UGNR and wider Bucharest Pact bloc together, as post-war nationalism began to develop tensions within it. He remained on very cordial terms with Stalin, though emerging elements and policies within the Soviet Union gave him – and especially his security apparatus – cause for concern. He also remained on good terms with both sides of US politics and of course was now an active participant in the LNSC as one of the Permanent Five members.
in OTL, the Grand National Assembly voted to send a contingent to Korea on this day30 September
“We have a lot of, ah, history to talk about,” continued the figure from their past as wide eyes narrowed and began looking for escape points as fight or flight instincts began to kick in …
My family and I moved to Warsaw, Poland when I was a wee lad (30 years ago now!) and as I recall there were still lots of buildings there that were still absolutely bullet-ridden from the Second World War. I think being amongst all that history helped develop my fascination with it.Thank you for the update. Will the Russians clean up the Berlin rubble by 2000?
It's tough to see the LN forces getting so easily handled in Korea, but it makes a little bit of sense too with much of the US ability to make war stupidly squandered by the AI during the main game. Aviation and naval force isn't what it should have been. Oh well.
On 4 September a Soviet Air Force bomber was shot down off the coast of North Korea by two US Navy fighter planes, after reportedly firing at an LN naval force.
From a hidden location, Otto Skorzeny vowed to “Demolish a Stalinistic Monstrosity in return for this act of cultural vandalism – at a time of our choosing.”
The lines therefore remained fixed as they had been on 23 September as the month ended. About half of South Korea had been occupied since the start of the war on 25 June. The Great Naktong Offensive had made good ground and secured its main objective of Suwon but had stumbled at its last hurdle.
Would the LN Coalition be able to hold a coherent line and start to wear down the so far largely victorious North Korean Army? Might the coming months bring the possibility of a counter-attack – or just allow a defensive perimeter to protect the key ports and industrial centres of Mokp’o in the south-west and Pusan in the south-east?
Rather than liberating South Korea, the plan became one of conquering North Korea in order to reunite the peninsula, with American troops to cross the 38th parallel that divided the two nations. Eventually, a cable would be sent to MacArthur at the end of the month passing on these new and highly classified instructions.
Turkey had, under Soviet diplomatic pressure and following a personal approach from Stalin himself, abstained in the recent LNSC vote condemning North Korea. This had created some tensions with the US and UK, though they also understood Turkey’s delicate position.
For its part, Turkey would take the request under careful consideration, needing to balance its role supporting LN processes and decisions against the impact this might have on its relationship with the Soviet Union, especially given recent reported clashes off North Korea between US and Soviet ships and aircraft.
Finally, Cennet had come with a request that was both ‘business and personal’. Tolson listed with interest, then nodded in agreement to Cennet’s request. The details were not minuted or briefed out to any subordinates on either side. But Cennet did leave with a handwritten letter from Tolson to facilitate the next leg of her clandestine mission to the US.
The door to the sealed meeting room was opened, revealing former LA Detective (and ‘hard man’ Bud White and his glamorous partner, the former MI6 start agent Persephonee ‘Perse’ Fotheringay-Phipps, aka ‘the Rose’.
“I’ll wager you weren’t expecting to see me, were you!?” announced the figure, who spoke with a slight but hard-to-place accent.
As they recognised the identity of this ‘unexpected visitor’, their eyes flashed to their FBI ‘handler’, who simply shrugged but otherwise kept a straight face.
“We have a lot of, ah, history to talk about,” continued the figure from their past as wide eyes narrowed and began looking for escape points as fight or flight instincts began to kick in …
Maybe. Unless even more is created in the interim! Otto may have some input there ...Thank you for the update. Will the Russians clean up the Berlin rubble by 2000?
Korea is looking very shaky and Vietnam will now be hard to hold for a distracted Japan.Oh dear. Even with Soviet mistakes and LN support, looks like Korea is going to fall to communism and so is Vietnam. Although in the latter case, this is probably a good thing compared to the alternative. If both those happen, Japan gets another humiliation and China begins to be surrounded on all sides by the Soviet bloc.
As previously mentioned, I have quite a different reading of the Japanese economy. I think it is going to be in significantly better shape than OTL immediate post-war. Never got bombed by the US, much of their continental Asian territory/proxies retained (although many a bit shaky), LNSC member, modus operandi with China (and never had the big ongoing WW2 war with them), something of a rapprochement with the West, burgeoning oil imports from the UGNR. The rest looks about right in my head-canon.Japan's economy is still OTL war situation so is close to collapse, France will take another decade to rebuild properly, Turkey is neutral and the UK is very isolated diplomatically and weak military wise, but still wealthy with no war damage to fix on the islands.
Yes, none of them will want a nuclear GW3, that's for sure. Accidents can happen, but really very unlikely over bits of Asia. Where would the motivation be for either side in that? And despite recent events, I still think its a pretty cold war for now, and not the bristling confrontation in Europe we had in OTL. Sabres may rattle, but they're only being drawn in marginal places for now.Based on all this, it would still be preferable to both sides if the US and USSR can reach some kind of new consensus like they had immedaitly post war. In fact, its going to be necessary given China and Japan will remain anti-communist but all of their neighbours look like they'll be Soviet or Soviet adjacent (India being neutral or mildly favouring the Soviets). Unless either side wants nuclear ww3 to break out in Asia of course.
some envelopments seem to be developing on the horizon
Maybe, we'll see what happens. Harder to simulate in the system I'm using for this war, which is a bit generalised.I thought they'd first attack Chongyang to envelop the forces in and around Suwon
Yes, that's a big problem for them now. It makes their defence brittle.if only the southerners had a few more divisions, they could've started a neat counterattack from the east coast
Ah, no idea! May need a little context from you to frame the debate.what is his (and China's) stance towards East Turkestan and what's the opinion of the government leading there?
I'm broadly basing decisions off OTL milestones, with a bit of liberty taken/adaptation for the ATL circumstances.in OTL, the Grand National Assembly voted to send a contingent to Korea on this day
Agree on both the sentiment and the rationale. I may have stacked the little game system a bit too much in NK's favour here, or maybe it was just the starting situation and RNG.It's tough to see the LN forces getting so easily handled in Korea, but it makes a little bit of sense too with much of the US ability to make war stupidly squandered by the AI during the main game. Aviation and naval force isn't what it should have been. Oh well.
Interesting. My father left it in about 1946 as a nine-year-old. Don't think there were too many bricks sitting on top of each other by then!My family and I moved to Warsaw, Poland when I was a wee lad (30 years ago now!) and as I recall there were still lots of buildings there that were still absolutely bullet-ridden from the Second World War. I think being amongst all that history helped develop my fascination with it.
Yes, well experienced, not really tracking the equipment, training and doctrine stuff now. I'd say, as Wraith has observed, that the US would be even weaker that department in Korea in ATL than they were in OTL - and that wasn't really too good in 1950, either, even after winning WW2.Thats true. The most advanced armed forces in the world is probably the soviet union, and the most experienced shared between Soviets and Turkey, Japan and Germany close behind.
More an isolated clash I think. Perhaps more aware of and accepting of such 'incidents' then as now.A worrying incident. I hope both sides will be keen to avoid further escalation.
I think you're right to be sceptical there. Though Skorzeny is the more flashy but perhaps marginal example. The real meat would be in any genuine mass civil disobedience or worse, should that develop.It remains to be seen if the German resistance has any teeth. At the moment, I am highly sceptical.
These are good assessments. The LN wants to hold Mokp'o if it can for as long as possible to allow for ROK reinforcements to continue coming, but if the line is stretched to far or broken, then yes it would have to be back to Pusan. It's a matter of timing ...A solid month for North Korea that keeps the LN forces under a great deal of pressure. If the LN falls back on Pusan with shorter front lines and good defensive terrain, I think they will hold. I don't believe Mokp'o can be defended - and certainly not both!
Quite. Though that may be beyond the LN if things get a little worse.At this point the only consideration is not to lose the war entirely!
This will be an RNG event with a range of possible outcomes and then narrative implications. All shall be revealed soon.This is a very difficult position for Turkey and requires a very careful balancing act. I certainly don't expect to see any substantive Turkish support for the LN effort.
Yes ... and no! It will soon be clear. Perhaps. Mebbe.Concerning...
At this point I was contemplating whether the Americans (having agreed to let Cennet conduct her private business) were now taking steps to see nothing came of it. However, it seems bilateral relations between the US and Turkey are more important than the two people they are protecting - and that makes perfect sense.
I am curious who Cennet sent. Ominous indeed!
I think it is going to be in significantly better shape than OTL immediate post-war. Never got bombed by the US, much of their continental Asian territory/proxies retained (although many a bit shaky), LNSC member, modus operandi with China (and never had the big ongoing WW2 war with them), something of a rapprochement with the West, burgeoning oil imports from the UGNR.
Uyghurs in East Turkestan are (and also at that time were) the largest contingent of Turkic people who didn't have at least a sort of local autonomy. I met one a couple of years ago and it was crazy that even though geographically they're one of the furthest Turkic peoples, we were mutually intelligible and were able to hold a conversation. During his lifetime Inonu did have too much on his plate when East Turkestan (Xinjiang in game) was still independent, and was powerless to dictate anything to the pre-Sino-Soviet split Comintern when it was already under Chinese control. There were several factions and 2 short lived republics in the tumultuous first half of the 20th century in that area, some aligned with Russian Communists, some with Chinese communists, some islamist, some nationalist and so on. Isa Yusuf Alptekin was of the conservative side and more or less affiliated with KMT despite some disagreements. He appealed to Inonu a lot for support, but for the aforementioned reasons Inonu couldn't do much. With KMT losing the war he lived the rest of his life in exile trying to prop up support for the Uyghur cause.Ah, no idea! May need a little context from you to frame the debate.
quite the power move! and I didn't expect at all what was to come!“Either way, after this meeting I am going to shoot you,”
that's a nice teamJohn Wayne and Audie Murphy.
This is SO scary for East Turkestan.On 7 October Chiang Kai-Shek [Mao in OTL] sent 40,000 troops to invade Eastern Tibet (Kham). They swiftly overran the 7,000 or 8,000 badly-trained and ill-equipped Tibetan troops, killing 5,700 of them at Chamdo.
I regret so much not being able to be more convincing and proactive during the peace talks and manage to pull off that gambit that would've kept them independent.Germany held its first post-war national elections on 15 October, with voting taking place for the Parliament and for regional, local and communal legislative bodies. In what was referred to (almost comically) as "the most democratic" elections ever held in Germany, and various political parties were identified, voters were asked to vote "yes" or "no" on a slate of candidates that had been drawn up by the Communist-dominated National Front. The choice was to approve or reject all candidates on the ballot. According to official figures, there was an 87.44% turnout of eligible voters, and 99.72% of them voted "yes" for the candidates. Otto Grotewohl was made the nation's first Prime Minister following the election.
RNG still isn't kind when it's out of the PC and in the diceThe attack was prosecuted with great vigour [10 rolled, -1 CAS = 9] and in a terrible blow, the defending LN division was destroyed as a fighting force.
Related to the East Turkestan issue above, both East Turkestan and UGNR would be interested in Aksai Chin and the very north of Gilgit-Baltistan regions, in effect the Karakorum mountain range. Both for historical reasons, Uyghurs living in Aksai Chin region reasons (for example see the southwest corner of the map here https://www.britannica.com/place/Turkistan) and it's just around the thin sliver of very undeveloped land that UGNR and East Turkestan share a border. I also suggest some building of infrastructure (something like an Urumqi-Tehran train line supposing we already connected Tehran well with the core railway infrastructure).This map shows the traditional boundaries of the Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir (thick maroon line). In ATL, all the non-Chinese parts were occupied by India on partition. The northern area (Baltistan), claimed by Pakistan in OTL, we will consider the part they believe should be in Pakistan as a minimum, but have so far not pressed as hard for in ATL.
I don't know if that would affect the die rolls, but we'll support anybody who'll back us with regards to East Turkestan and where Uyghurs live.If granted, this would be something of a concession by India but might offer them international legitimacy and even grudging Pakistani acceptance of their rule if they won – but at the risk of partly losing control of the province. Pakistan agreed to the idea immediately, of course. But would Nehru and his government be prepared to take the risk for the possible greater reward? [The Indian Cabinet decision and Pakistani reactions will be subject to contingent die rolls in the November update.]
At this stage, with good relations to uncle Joe and with USSR still being much more powerful than UGNR, they cannot do much except using good relations with USSR to do something for the Turkic people of USSR. The good thing is in USSR they still have a degree of autonomy, much better compared to the Uyghurs of China.@diskoerekto, how strongly would Turkey be backing the Turkic speaking peoples of the Soviet Union getting autonomy?
Regarding Germany, the most important person in a democracy is not the person who votes, but the person who counts the votes. 75% of the German electorate is kicking themselves for being the only person foolish enough to vote NO and they are too scared to admit their error.
The DPRK managed to mass 16 divisions against the three Japanese-ROK defending formations to give them combat power odds of 4-1. US air support only meant the entire defensive position was destroyed rather than overrun with survivors forced to surrender.
It was a devastating loss of men at the start of the month that the LN Coalition could ill-afford.
The attack was prosecuted with great vigour and in a terrible blow, the defending LN division was destroyed as a fighting force.
As it was, both were wiped out as effective fighting forces. It was the first time an LN division had been destroyed in the war so far.
Outnumbered 10 to 1, several battalions of Japanese and Vietnamese army troops in Vietnam were killed, wounded, or taken prisoner by Viet Minh guerrillas on 9 October after retreating from the garrison at Cao Bằng.
In the end, despite the risks of Soviet disapproval, Milli Şef Inönü and his colleagues were firmly of the view that the LN was in need, the DPRK’s actions had been illegal and that Turkey’s responsibility as an LNSC member meant that an immediate deployment was called for. The Turkish Brigade was fully deployed in Pusan by 15 October and would soon begin sending troops to the front as soon as they were reorganised and liaison completed.
The following day, at a meeting in the territory of a former "princely state" that was claimed by both India and Pakistan after the breakup of British India but that had gone fully to India, the LN-sponsored Jammu & Kashmir Conference proposed a resolution to help resolve the sore point between the two countries.
If approved, a constituent assembly would be elected in an LN-supervised vote to determine the final disposition of the area.
It was none other that Cennet Kavgaci herself, Head of S.I.T.H. since the end of GW2.
The FBI Special Agent sitting in on the meeting coughed pointedly and then interjected, “Come now, Miss Kavgaci, I know you have an axe to grind with these two – no, a figurative one – but let us get to the point now, shall we?”
We want to shoot a movie, here in Hollywood and on location, bankrolled by the Turkish government but designed to glorify our wartime exploits in combination with our US Marine brothers in the Balkans. And also as a propaganda blockbuster to boost our image in the wider UGNR and especially in those states now within the wider Bucharest Pact.
Lovely to hear! Please feel free to ask any questions or make any comments you wish from past episodes, I’m always happy to reminisce!Just wanted to drop a post saying that I'm slowly (very slowly!) working my way through this AAR and enjoying it tremendously so far! I find your writing both entertaining and easy to follow, despite having largely skipped over HOI3 myself.
Just wanted to drop a post saying that I'm slowly (very slowly!) working my way through this AAR and enjoying it tremendously so far! I find your writing both entertaining and easy to follow, despite having largely skipped over HOI3 myself.
Lovely to hear! Please feel free to ask any questions or make any comments you wish from past episodes, I’m always happy to reminisce!
Yes, I thought I'd double down on that A-Team for a US-Turkish war propaganda collaboration. The marine deployment to the Balkans was just about the only serious land combat the US engaged in during the whole of GW2!Love Audie Murphy! NK getting great rolls. Pakistan can dream about LN help while Korea is ongoing. Thanks
They're trying but struggling to modernise, disengage with the imperial lead in their saddlebags and simultaneously engage and align with the West at a time of difficult economic and military circumstances. They scramble, but it is indeed touch and go for them. Though it may well be an opportunity for the West, the US in particular.Better shape in that they went bankrupt slower than OTL, but given how massively overly extended the Japanese miktiary was by the end of the war, they're still hurting for money. Plus Japan hasn't really had a moments peace since then. They've been fighting in China, Vietnam and Korea ever since, can't demobalise or demilitarised, and indeed, must maintain and extend their armed forces.
Although remembering in this TL, the fight with China ended in 1937, though there was only a short break between that and the GW2 involvement against the Soviets and Allies. A few early post-war solutions are in place, I think, but without the catharsis and then large-scale reinvestment following their defeat in OTL WW2. But can the West permit them to collapse completely in the face of the Communist menace in the East? Hmmm ...Basically, as soon as the withdrawal from these colonial spats stop (or if they keep going for the rest of the decade even), Japan WILL go bankrupt and collapse into a crisis of its own making.
Politically and socially, Japan has now been at War non stop for 25 years and the populace, with a bump of approval for 'winning' their part of WW2, are going to go right back to not supporting unpopular, never ending and expensive wars which keep killing thousands of Japanese soldiers.
So whilst Japan is, in some respects, in a better place TTL, it has most of its OTL WW2 problems still ongoing, and none of the post war solutions in place.
Uyghurs in East Turkestan are (and also at that time were) the largest contingent of Turkic people who didn't have at least a sort of local autonomy. I met one a couple of years ago and it was crazy that even though geographically they're one of the furthest Turkic peoples, we were mutually intelligible and were able to hold a conversation. During his lifetime Inonu did have too much on his plate when East Turkestan (Xinjiang in game) was still independent, and was powerless to dictate anything to the pre-Sino-Soviet split Comintern when it was already under Chinese control. There were several factions and 2 short lived republics in the tumultuous first half of the 20th century in that area, some aligned with Russian Communists, some with Chinese communists, some islamist, some nationalist and so on. Isa Yusuf Alptekin was of the conservative side and more or less affiliated with KMT despite some disagreements. He appealed to Inonu a lot for support, but for the aforementioned reasons Inonu couldn't do much. With KMT losing the war he lived the rest of his life in exile trying to prop up support for the Uyghur cause.
Yes, more likely to get Turkish support in this TL, given Turkey's far more prominent, powerful and interventionist position here. I think it plausible they would agitate in favour of independence for East Turkestan/'Sinkiang' in TTL. They'd also be able to use their leverage in the LNSC and with both the Soviets and the US (not to mention the persuasive power of their massive oil reserves) to aid this.In our timeline with KMT being victorious but East Turkestan managing to stay independent (Alptekin asked for renouncing their claims from Taiwan during the cold war but was denied), and Turkey being one of the majorish powers of the world, I think Inonu would have more bandwidth for Alptekin, and Alptekin would have more clout. An East Turkestan more able to assert its borders but is in search for allies that are neither communist nor too foreign while avoiding the fate of Tibet, a KMT that renounces claims to a friendly regime in return for something else, UGNR that creates a non-affiliated corridor from the Chinese Sea to Western Mediterranean; I think there should be some kind of friendship between UGNR and East Turkestan (and also a name change of the country )
Glad to get a little bit of a surprise in there.quite the power move! and I didn't expect at all what was to come!
We will see more of them together (thanks to the magic of photo editing) in the next chapter.that's a nice team
They may wish to seek some kind of diplomatic arrangement with the UGNR and/or LN support to guarantee their independence!This is SO scary for East Turkestan.
The art of the possible and all that ...I regret so much not being able to be more convincing and proactive during the peace talks and manage to pull off that gambit that would've kept them independent.
They are cruel mistresses.RNG still isn't kind when it's out of the PC and in the dice
Interesting background.Related to the East Turkestan issue above, both East Turkestan and UGNR would be interested in Aksai Chin and the very north of Gilgit-Baltistan regions, in effect the Karakorum mountain range. Both for historical reasons, Uyghurs living in Aksai Chin region reasons (for example see the southwest corner of the map here https://www.britannica.com/place/Turkistan) and it's just around the thin sliver of very undeveloped land that UGNR and East Turkestan share a border. I also suggest some building of infrastructure (something like an Urumqi-Tehran train line supposing we already connected Tehran well with the core railway infrastructure).
Probably not so much in the immediate issue, but a nice theoretical argument to have.I don't know if that would affect the die rolls, but we'll support anybody who'll back us with regards to East Turkestan and where Uyghurs live.
Re Germany: haha! They remain caught in a post-war nightmare of their own creation, perpetuated by the machinations of Versailles.@diskoerekto, how strongly would Turkey be backing the Turkic speaking peoples of the Soviet Union getting autonomy?
Regarding Germany, the most important person in a democracy is not the person who votes, but the person who counts the votes. 75% of the German electorate is kicking themselves for being the only person foolish enough to vote NO and they are too scared to admit their error.
Agreed. May be decades before anything more is possible re the USSR.At this stage, with good relations to uncle Joe and with USSR still being much more powerful than UGNR, they cannot do much except using good relations with USSR to do something for the Turkic people of USSR. The good thing is in USSR they still have a degree of autonomy, much better compared to the Uyghurs of China.
Accurate analysis. Definitely need the reinforcements - and more. Truman will need to closely consider whether he needs to do more if, as appears to be the case, the use of atomics in extremis has been ruled out.This month has seen a series of disasters befall the LN cause in Korea and the situation now looks extremely precarious. Reinforcements and the onset of winter might just allow the LN to stay in this. Perhaps.
It is looking nasty for them and will have implications at home and in Indochina in particular.In addition to losing divisions in Korea, Japan's other problems are escalating. The entire GEACPS might be poised to implode?
He's trying to look both at current events and their future implications. Without the personal bond between him and Stalin, the future relationship with the Communist Bloc is very problematic. He's trying to remain engaged with both, aligned with neither and with options on both sides. Not an easy path, especially if nationalism within the UGNR and wider Bucharest Pact starts to eat away at stability in the future.That was an unexpectedly bold move by the Milli Şef - and probably the first decision he's made that puts him at odds with Stalin.
It will all be in the hands of the RNG gods - let us hope they are more kind than cruel!So far in this timeline the dispute over Kashmir has been handled well. Hopefully this dialogue also ends positively and steers the region away from conflict.
No one ever expects the Turkish Inquisition!I didn't see that coming!
It seemed touch and go for them, and Cennet was determined to make them squirm a bit first.I figured the Americans would insist nothing happened on their turf but I imagined Bud and Perse were about to 'extradited' to Turkey...
Why get a Perse imitation when you can have the real thing!And they'd rather have the genuine article than hire Veronica Lake? For Perse, paying off her debt by doing what she does best isn't an altogether bad option. The trick is to remain more useful to Turkey alive than dead!
Thanks! Things are really getting tough in South Korea: can they bounce back as they did in OTL from a similar position on the ground?Another excellent Update.
Korea:
The arrival of Turkish forces is an interesting development. Pulling back from Seoul does put the South on the back door here. Let's hope they can still turn the tide.
Cennet and Bud will be banking on the fact that the Turks could have already engineered such an accident if they really wanted to, but having relied on US support to set this up, reneging on their word would have wider implications. And Perse did used to be a poster girl for the Turkish war effort in GW2 before her defection, after all. They might even be able to concoct some semi-plausible rehabilitation story, as it's unlikely her betrayal would have been publicised at home in the tightly controlled Turkish press.Cennet in America:
This movie business really does sound like another ruse to get Perse back into UGNR territory so that a 'freak accident' may befall her... Of course accident or not, the resulting movie is going to be great propaganda, and a clear sign of Turkish-American rapprochement. Even killing Pers won't change the geopolitics at play...
Again thanks!Just wanted to drop a post saying that I'm slowly (very slowly!) working my way through this AAR and enjoying it tremendously so far! I find your writing both entertaining and easy to follow, despite having largely skipped over HOI3 myself.
And to you TBC. Your dedicated and long-term support for this AAR has been a delight and I've always appreciated your perceptive and sometimes alternate views on how things might go or should in the future.It was a grand adventure, wasn't it? I really hope you can find another nation with that kind of potential but also pushing their luck style tension before inevitable ww2 situation.
And I'm still amazed you managed to pull off what you did before it all kicked off.