• We have updated our Community Code of Conduct. Please read through the new rules for the forum that are an integral part of Paradox Interactive’s User Agreement.
China and Japan agreed on a timetable for the initial handback of occupied territories under Protocol 5. It would start with border provinces that were partly occupied by Japan, beginning with northern Heinan on 30 April 1950. All going well, the northern edge of Zhejiang would follow on 31 May then the larger northern tract of occupied Anhui on 30 June.

In Japan, the Kempeitai began receiving reports of ‘animated discussion’ among some harder-line Army leaders in Occupied China and the Kwantung Army in the north, but as yet no specific indications of any imminent actions or coups.

So far, so good, for the China-Japan pact. Hopefully the Japanese government keeps tabs on the hard-liners and heads off any trouble.

Kim and his advisers told Stalin that a war with South Korea would be concluded "within a matter of days" and that the capital, Seoul, would quickly fall. He believed victory could be achieved without the need for direct Soviet intervention – so long as they could keep the Japanese ‘distracted’ (short of war) along their long shared border in Mongolia and Manchuria.

This, however, is looking very ominous indeed! :eek:

Klaus Fuchs was convicted on 1 March of passing along American and British atomic secrets to the Soviet Union.

More a case of confirming to the Soviets just how far behind the Allies are in this timeline! :D

The Khan’s younger brother, Prince Agha Abdul Karim Baloch, revolted against his decision and took refuge in Afghanistan to wage an armed resistance against Pakistan, with little initial support from the rest of Balochistan.

Ah... just when I was thinking how smoothly that had gone. :rolleyes:
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
Hi all - have had some huge RL distractions the last few weeks that have absorbed very many hours of energy-sapping engagement with things, then in between trying to summon the nervous energy to update the other various AARs before circling back here again. Not quite all done yet but I've managed to squeeze an update in now. Hoping things can ease off a lot soon.
I hope all is well with RL my friend, I hope you all the happiness and health

On 20 March Jordan and Israel ratified the five-year peace treaty initialled in February that provided for joint control of Jerusalem and commerce between the two nations. [In OTL Jordan did not ratify. In ATL they have, on a 50/50 die roll.]
thank god
 
  • 2Like
  • 1Love
  • 1
Reactions:
Sorry, I'm just waking up, but wanted to extend my hopes that whatever RL events are sapping your attention and energy are resolved quickly and without undo fuss.

Great update, glad to get the quickly digestible sound bites!
RL stuff is going well enough now - worst of the admin part out of the way now, I think, thanks. Glad you like the new short bulletin style format. I'm quite enjoying it myself.
So far, so good, for the China-Japan pact. Hopefully the Japanese government keeps tabs on the hard-liners and heads off any trouble.
More on both of these aspects shortly ... ;)
This, however, is looking very ominous indeed! :eek:
It will come to a head at some point soon: but will Kim 'pull the trigger' or not? And who else might be roped in? Time will tell ... and the outcomes are not preordained in this case, even if the broad timeline has been trending as it did in OTL so far.
More a case of confirming to the Soviets just how far behind the Allies are in this timeline! :D
Indeed.
Ah... just when I was thinking how smoothly that had gone. :rolleyes:
We shall soon see whether the disgruntled brother will become a thorn in the side of Pakistan or just a small splinter in his brother's arse! :D
I hope all is well with RL my friend, I hope you all the happiness and health
Yes, going better now, and many thanks. :)
thank god
This is another small but potentially significant POD with our timeline. How significant that divergence may be is moot for now and in my mind's eye is not preordained and may be further affected by RNG decision points down the track.

Next monthly update ready to roll ... thanks for the continuing interest, comments, readership and general support!
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
Chapter 274: April 1950
Chapter 274: April 1950

gVLArx.jpg


---xxx---

East Asia

Following his return from Moscow in March, the North Korean Communist leader Kim Il Sung maintained a relatively low profile during April, with no major incidents or revelations occurring for the rest of the month. However, he was secretly preparing his army for the planned war to unify Korea under Communist rule.

Limited Western military aid trickled into South Korea, which continued to develop its fledgling army, while Japan remained the main security guarantor, subtly building up its locally based formations in the south.

IcDBHY.jpg

South Korean Student Volunteer Soldiers in Daegu, April 1950.

However, the IJA’s main focus remained on the long border with the Soviet Union of the GEACPS puppet states of Mengkukuo and Manchukuo, where increased Soviet patrolling and border provocations began to pick up as the month wore on. Though quieter of late, distractions in Vietnam and Indochina more widely, plus management of the staged withdrawals from Occupied China also soaked up Japanese political attention and military manpower. And another distraction in Manchuria later in the month (see below) would further worry and disrupt the Japanese military in the region …

The "First National Congress of the Khmer Resistance" met at the Cambodian city of Kompong Som on 17 April 1950, with 200 delegates. Over half of whom were Buddhist monks and advisers from the Communist Viet Minh movement from neighbouring Vietnam. After three days, the delegates formed the United Issarak Front to fight the Japanese puppet government. [The French colonial government in OTL.]

On 5 March 1950 China and Japan agreed on a timetable for the initial handback of occupied territories under Protocol 5. The first of these border provinces that had been partly occupied by Japan since 1937, northern Heinan, was handed back without incident on 30 April 1950.

CkffZp.jpg


---xxx---

Japan: the 25 April Plot

Recap. In March, the Kempeitai began receiving reports of ‘animated discussion’ among some harder-line Army leaders in Occupied China and the Kwantung Army in the north.

In mid-April 1950, an informant tipped off the secret police about a meeting involving a cabal of two senior and four subordinate Kwantung Army generals who were actively involved in plotting a military coup against the ‘evil advisers of the current government’ who were conspiring ‘to pervert the policies of the Revered Emperor’. The Kempeitai pounced, arresting all six ringleaders.

XnnYkO.jpg

Kempeitai men prepare to arrest key Kwantung Army plotters in Manchuria, April 1950.

The plot leader was identified as General Otozō Yamada, the Kwantung Army Commander since 1944. More lower-level conspirators would be hunted down in coming days. The plot was comprehensively defeated and the hard-line Army threat in Kwantung thoroughly rooted out so as to pose no credible further threat, for the foreseeable future.

5f923G.jpg

General Otozō Yamada, b. 6 November 1881, hard-line [in this ATL anyway] IJA commander of the now-defunct Kwantung Army. Arrested on 25 April 1950 for plotting a military coup.

In public, a ‘major reorganisation’ of the re-named Northern Army was announced and the plot leaders were all ‘retired on full pensions’ – though they were secretly interned in a closely guarded compound somewhere in Manchukuo, where interrogations and ‘re-education’ would continue for many weeks.

I instituted a monthly die roll to see if a coup would be attempted or found out and eliminated. 1/20 would have triggered a military coup, 20/20 its discovery and elimination. As it happened, the first roll was a 20 – so the civilian government is safe for now, with the worst and most powerful hotbed of reactionary adventurists flushed out and discredited.

---xxx---

The Sub-Continent

The stand-off between the Princely State of Kalat and the Government of Pakistan had ended on 8 March with Kalat’s accession to union with Pakistan. The Khan of Kalat’s younger brother Prince Agha Abdul Karim Baloch had revolted and took refuge in Afghanistan. Prince Agha had hoped to wage an armed resistance against Pakistan but attracted little support, his efforts fizzling out during April 1950 as he faded into irrelevance and obscurity.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan arrived in Delhi on 2 April 1950 as the guest of India's Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru for the first summit meeting between the two since the partition of British India into predominantly Muslim Pakistan and predominantly Hindu India. The meeting came in the wake of anti-Hindu violence in Pakistan and anti-Muslim violence in India, and would result in a pact between the two leaders to punish anti-religious violence against religious minorities.

hv5COr.jpg

Prime Ministers Jawaharlal Nehru of India and Liaquat Ali Khan of Pakistan signing the Liaquat-Nehru Pact in Delhi, 2 April 1950.

At that meeting, the two leaders also gave in-principle agreement to an LN-brokered border resolution process in and around Bengal and East Pakistan. It aimed to resolve as best as it could the border anomalies that had ensued from the UK’s hastily implemented ‘Radcliffe Award’ lines of 1947, which had created a number of anomalies where expected religious and ethnic outcomes had been overturned.

Subject to ratification by both sides, a revised final border would be recognised, removing many of the causes of border tensions in that region and preventing the feared forced movement or suppression of majorities who had found themselves unexpectedly in either India or Pakistan after the initial partition. However, Pakistani displeasure with the current control of all of Kashmir by India remained the major source of tension between the two countries. [Of course, in OTL this border adjustment in Bengal did not occur and much disruption and grounds for future conflict ensued.]

D8nL9G.jpg

The LN-proposed border revisions for East Pakistan amending the poorly-worked Radcliffe Line of 1947. The green shaded areas would revert to Pakistan, while the beige-shaded zones would be reallocated to India.

---xxx---

The United States

Confidential Reporting. On 14 April 1950 the US National Security Council (NSC) issued NSC 68, authored by Paul Nitze and entitled "United States Objectives and Programs for National Security". The document, classified top secret, would guide American foreign policy during the rest of the Truman Administration. Describing the "essential purpose of the United States" as being "to assure the integrity and vitality of our free society", and the "fundamental design of the Kremlin" as "the complete subversion or forcible destruction of the machinery of government and structure of society in the countries of the non-Soviet world", NSC 68 concluded that "we must, by means of a rapid and sustained build-up of the political, economic and military strength of the free world... frustrate the Kremlin design of a world dominated by its will."

j72BtA.jpg

The later declassified front page of NSC 68, issued in April 1950.

US President Harry Truman on 16 April privately made the decision not to run for re-election in 1952 but would not tell his advisers or make the announcement public yet.

---xxx---

The Middle East

The Arab Collective Security Treaty was signed in Cairo on 13 April by the six nations of the Arab League (Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Yemen) with the members agreeing that an attack on one member would be considered an attack on all. [In OTL there were seven, including Syria, which is part of the UGNR in the ATL.]

d7UnF1.jpg

The flag of the Arab League.

Jordan formally annexed the West Bank on 24 April and made the area's Palestinian residents citizens of the kingdom, in a resolution approved unanimously by its Parliament and signed by King Abdullah. The annexation was recognised only by the United Kingdom and Pakistan.

gy5H72.jpg

Map of Jordan showing including the annexed West Bank, April 1950.

---xxx---

Other World News

On 7 April, the Soviet Union instituted a new five-member executive council known as the Bureau of the Presidium consisting of Premier Josef Stalin, First Deputy Nikolai Bulganin, and Deputies Lavrentiy Beria, Vyacheslav Molotov, and Lazar Kaganovich. Georgy Malenkov was added to the group a week later.

On 25 April the Republic of the South Moluccas (Republik Maluku Selatan) was proclaimed by Christiaan Soumokil in three islands (Ambon, Buru and Ceram) that had been part of Indonesia. [In OTL, the islands of Ambon and Buru would be recaptured by the end of the year, but fighting would continue on Ceram for six more years, and the island of Soumokil would not fall until 1963.]

aEBPtN.jpg

South Moluccan soldier, April 1950.
 
  • 4Like
  • 2Love
Reactions:
In mid-April 1950, an informant tipped off the secret police about a meeting involving a cabal of two senior and four subordinate Kwantung Army generals who were actively involved in plotting a military coup against the ‘evil advisers of the current government’ who were conspiring ‘to pervert the policies of the Revered Emperor’. The Kempeitai pounced, arresting all six ringleaders.

The plot was comprehensively defeated and the hard-line Army threat in Kwantung thoroughly rooted out so as to pose no credible further threat, for the foreseeable future.

A welcome development that should keep Japan on its present trajectory. A gradual, managed retreat promises a better outcome for the region than a resurgence of Japanese imperialist zeal.

Prince Agha had hoped to wage an armed resistance against Pakistan but attracted little support, his efforts fizzling out during April 1950 as he faded into irrelevance and obscurity.

The meeting came in the wake of anti-Hindu violence in Pakistan and anti-Muslim violence in India, and would result in a pact between the two leaders to punish anti-religious violence against religious minorities.

At that meeting, the two leaders also gave in-principle agreement to an LN-brokered border resolution process in and around Bengal and East Pakistan.

Yet more positive outcomes. April 1950 is turning out to be a good month for world peace! :)

NSC 68 concluded that "we must, by means of a rapid and sustained build-up of the political, economic and military strength of the free world... frustrate the Kremlin design of a world dominated by its will."

The US, unfortunately, continues to slide into an OTL Cold War mentality. There doesn't seem to be much sign anymore of dialogue or cooperation between the two wartime Comintern partners. I can't help feeling the comprehensive Soviet victory in the Geneva settlement may be the root cause of this animosity. :(

On 20 March Jordan and Israel ratified the five-year peace treaty initialled in February that provided for joint control of Jerusalem and commerce between the two nations.

Jordan formally annexed the West Bank on 24 April and made the area's Palestinian residents citizens of the kingdom, in a resolution approved unanimously by its Parliament and signed by King Abdullah.

Taken together, and assuming Israel and Jordan can manage to avoid war, this might perhaps be an optimistic development?
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
The US, unfortunately, continues to slide into an OTL Cold War mentality. There doesn't seem to be much sign anymore of dialogue or cooperation between the two wartime Comintern partners. I can't help feeling the comprehensive Soviet victory in the Geneva settlement may be the root cause of this animosity.

They're still cooperating in a lot more areas than OTL, at both the UN, international bodies and other things.

When stalin dies, and the reaction against comintern successes in Geneva dies down, there should be much more of a detente. Probably starting in the mid to late 50s.
 
  • 4Like
Reactions:
Thanks to the two intrepid commenters on the last chapter and to those who give reactions and continue to read this rather venerable tome as it closes in on seven years of toiling away! :)

A little while away yet from doing the next update, but thought I'd do some feedback now, as it's been a while as I get back into the swing of things after last week's big cricket tournament (national inter-state championships for old guys) plus the excitement of Australia's victory in the Cricket World Cup.

A welcome development that should keep Japan on its present trajectory. A gradual, managed retreat promises a better outcome for the region than a resurgence of Japanese imperialist zeal.
They were lucky it was resolved so quickly and tidily. There could have been months of uncertainty and potential instability, or a coup and perhaps even armed conflict if things had turned nasty. Japan's problems have not gone away, but they at least have some breathing space and the chance to pivot away a little more quickly from the Imperialist paradigm of past decades.
Yet more positive outcomes. April 1950 is turning out to be a good month for world peace! :)
This one was 'by the book' per OTL. He huffed and he puffed, but no-one was really interested in following him.
The US, unfortunately, continues to slide into an OTL Cold War mentality. There doesn't seem to be much sign anymore of dialogue or cooperation between the two wartime Comintern partners. I can't help feeling the comprehensive Soviet victory in the Geneva settlement may be the root cause of this animosity. :(
They're still cooperating in a lot more areas than OTL, at both the UN, international bodies and other things.
I think both statements are true, to a certain extent. Note that in the ATL, the threat of a Soviet push against a far less powerful West and a US lacking that post-war confidence, position and power is probably greater than applied in OTL. So the fears are probably more justified. But also, the confrontation this time has not been so sharp, especially in Europe, while the world is more multi-polar in the post-GW2 period, with both the UGNR's Bloc and Japan being substantial players.

The question will be whether events - whether generated by these main players or by others - serve to change the direction of events in the next few years from the general OTL trajectory. There are already major PODs.
Taken together, and assuming Israel and Jordan can manage to avoid war, this might perhaps be an optimistic development?
It could well be, though that region still has the potential to be horribly volatile (as we have seen again so tragically in recent times).
When stalin dies, and the reaction against comintern successes in Geneva dies down, there should be much more of a detente. Probably starting in the mid to late 50s.
It will be interesting - if the AAR gets that far, some thoughts will be recorded. If not, people can speculate freely as to where things might have ended up!
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
Chapter 275: May 1950
Chapter 275: May 1950

NNFTlR.jpg


---xxx---

East and South-East Asia

On 8 May, US Secretary of State Dean Acheson announced an agreement with Japan and the State of Vietnam to provide ten million dollars (each party to provide half) of military assistance to help ‘fight Communism’.

North Korea's Communist leader Kim Il Sung arrived in Vladivostok [Beijing in OTL] on 13 May to inform China's Chairman Mao Zedong that Joseph Stalin of the Soviet Union had given Kim the go-ahead to reunify the Korean peninsula by force. He sought Mao's approval and made a request that the remaining Communist guerrilla cells in Manchuria commence disruptive operations as soon as possible, to distract the Japanese and impede access to the North Korean border area.

Et21TO.jpg

Mao Zedong and Kim Il-Sung meet in Vladivostok, 13 May 1950.

Not believing Kim, Mao made an urgent visit to the Soviet Far East Command HQ that night and asked the Soviets to get confirmation from Stalin. The next day, Stalin replied to Mao, confirming that he had given Kim Il Sung the okay to "unify" Korea, but added, "If Chinese comrades do not agree, then we have to resolve this question."

Mao approved Kim Il Sung's plan for North Korea to invade South Korea on 15 May and pledged PLA guerrilla support. Over coming days, word would go out to dormant PLA guerrilla cells throughout Manchuria to start preparing for operations, while the Soviets increased the covert supply of weapons and ammunition across the long and often porous border.

Done by die role. In OTL he approved the plan. Here, given his far weaker position, the die roll was: 1-5 Approve; 6-7 Approve but request a delay to prepare; 8-9 Prevaricate; 10 Refuse to participate. A two was rolled, meaning definitive support.

This activity did not go unnoticed by the Japanese Northern Army and there were a number of low-level border skirmishes reported as these efforts increased in the second half of the month. This was of course in line with Stalin’s commitment to provide some increasing distraction, prompting the Japanese to send most of the troops being gradually withdrawn from occupied China to the Soviet border and provincial anti-insurgent garrisons in supporting the puppet regimes in Mengkukuo and Manchukuo rather than to South Korea itself.

IBwspf.jpg

The second tranche of handbacks to China went off with northern Zhejiang being transferred without incident in May 1950, with the formal handover being completed with a low-key ceremony on the 31st. Some of the Japanese troops pulled back to posts on the new border but many were sent north as relations with the Soviets and intelligence concerning renewed Chinese Communist insurgent activity worried the leaders of Japan’s Northern Army.

North Korea fired artillery across the 38th Parallel into South Korea on 29 May, heavily damaging the city of Kaesong. This was done as a provocation just prior to the South Korean election day and to start the ‘masking operations’ in the lead-up to their planned offensive.

jj0fqV.jpg

North Korean artillery fires on South Korean positions at Kaesong, 29 May 1950.

Participation was high in voting for the National Assembly of South Korea on 30 May, with 2,209 candidates for the 210 seats. The ruling Democratic Nationalist Party and the Korea Nationalist Party each won 24 seats, while independent candidates got 126 seats. Syngman Rhee remained in charge of a hardline, nationalist and anti-Communist government, heavily reliant on Japanese support for its security and with some as yet largely unfulfilled promises of future supplementary US military funding.

e1LdJn.jpg

South Korea was keen to demonstrate its democratic credentials – especially as the RoK had taken a heavy hand to domestic opposition as it tried to emerge from Japan’s shadow while confronting an existential threat from Kim’s militant Communist regime to the north.

---xxx---

May 1950 Turkish Elections

The "first genuinely free elections" in the history of Turkey took place on 14 May. The size of the Assembly had been increased from 465 to 487 and a multiple non-transferable vote electoral system adopted, which would greatly accentuate the seats gained by any party that managed to achieve a simple majority of the national vote.

TNObH7.jpg

The state of the parties after the 1946 elections.

The 1946 used a province-based system had used proportional representation within each province to determine the seats. For 1950, as a simplified ‘multiple non-transferable vote electoral system’, each province was adjudged as a single winner-take-all electorate, with swings (national and provincial, by die rolls) applying to the carry over total vote of each province (to give minor parties a better chance of making big gains if they were lucky, or being wiped out if they were not). Here are the number of seats (adjusted for the increased Assembly and relative population shifts) in play this time round.

2VxmIJ.jpg

Naturally, the ruling Republican People's Party (CHP) of İsmet İnönü had been banking on that being them when they instituted this system. But some anecdotal advice had been received that the freer voting this time round could see the contest being closer than anticipated. He would once again be facing off against his former colleague and Prime Minister, opposition leader Celal Bayar.

SQ0yrO.jpg

İnönü and Bayar face off yet again. This time, Bayar believes he has a real chance of gaining power.

The swing table for the minor parties would remain the same as before. But as a one-off adjustment to reflect the introduction of relatively free and fair secret ballots for this election, the national swing vote for the CHP and DP was rolled using a median point of a 14.11% swing to the DP. I didn’t make it larger (thus making the OTL result the median) as I thought in the ATL the ruling government had a far more successful and glorious run than had been the case in OTL and that İnönü would gain more strong man’ cachet.

gm2YZB.jpg

Had this been rolled, each party would have been at a notional 43.02% of the vote, so a variation above or below might have equated to a win for either side (as moderated by province-by-province results, with Istanbul being disproportionately important under this new winner-take-all system).

2HntgC.jpg

Yeter! Söz Milletindir! ("Enough! The Word Belongs To The People!") was the main slogan used by the Democrat Party in the 1950 Turkish general elections.

t7vmoY.jpg

The CHP banked on the people not yet having had enough of the very successful İnönü, continuing in the glorious tradition of Ataturk.

Unlike the previous elections in 1946, the 1950 elections took place in a calm atmosphere. In the end, the swing against the ruling party was far smaller than had been anticipated [a die roll of 10% saw the CHP maintain a very clear popular majority overall]. The results meant that CHP maintained power easily with an increased majority, riding on the back of their wartime success and increasing post-war Turkish, UGNR and Bucharest Pact prosperity and power.

U1zscx.jpg

Due to the electoral system designed to boost the dominant party's parliamentary numbers, the CHP captured a massive majority in the General Assembly, despite a moderate swing towards the Democrat Party of Celal Bayar and Adnan Menderes. The CHP won 94% of the seats with only 51.66% of the popular vote. The Democrats won only 6% of the seats despite receiving nearly 35.87% of the popular vote.

MQnwgm.jpg

İnönü claims victory after his newly introduced electoral system gave him exactly the landlide victory he had hoped for.

The OTL result was a virtual the reverse of this, a landslide victory for the opposition Democrat Party (DP), which won 416 of the 487 seats with 55% of the vote. Bayar was subsequently elected President with Adnan Menderes taking over as Prime Minister.

dmCRFX.jpg

Adnan Menderes – even unluckier in ATL than OTL? He was tried and hanged in 1961 under the military junta after a 1960 coup d'état. Or might this loss spare him that fate in the ATL?

On 22 May İnönü was re-elected president (at this stage still done by indirect vote through the Assembly) and thus Milli Şef of the UGNR.

---xxx---

Other World News

On 16 May the Soviet Union announced that it was cutting the remaining reparations, owed to it from Germany, by half.

Harry Gold, an American atomic research scientist believed to have assisted Klaus Fuchs in passing nuclear secrets to the Soviets, was arrested on 23 May by the FBI in Philadelphia and charged with espionage, with the possibility of receiving the death penalty. Gold's confession implicated David Greenglass, who turned in his own sister, Ethel Rosenberg, and her husband, Julius Rosenberg.

qo0NQh.jpg

Harry Gold after his arrest by the FBI in May 1950.
 
Last edited:
  • 3Like
  • 2Love
Reactions:
Other World News

On 16 May the Soviet Union announced that it was cutting the remaining reparations, owed to it from East Germany, by half.
Which Germany? :p
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
The state of the parties after the 1946 elections.
Turkish politics is sometimes difficult to explain or comprehend with the usual left-right dichotomy. CHP can always be regarded as center-left due to progressive social and mixed economic agenda, and later in 1965 Inonu would use the exact term. On the other hand in this early republican era, it is difficult to classify a as the founder party of the republic as left, since left needs to be an alternative to the existing. But when we classify CHP as right or conservative, then since all the remaining parties are either far right or reactionary, we are left with no left parties other than fringe communist ones. So if we exclude CHP, the first party to ever have seats in the parliament was Mehmet Ali Aybar's socialist Workers' Party of Turkey all the way in 1965 with 3% of the vote. There hasn't been a center-left party with significant number of seats other than DSP and SHP, both of which were formed by former CHP supporters after the 1980 coup outlawed CHP. So, even though it might seem unintuitive, maybe it's best to call CHP center-left.

Yeter! Söz Milletindir! ("Enough! The Word Belongs To The People!") was the main slogan used by the Democrat Party in the 1950 Turkish general elections.
this motto was a reaction to modernization changes made in the first 27 years of the republic

Unlike the previous elections in 1946, the 1950 elections took place in a calm atmosphere. In the end, the swing against the ruling party was far smaller than had been anticipated [a die roll of 10% saw the CHP maintain a very clear popular majority overall]. The results meant that CHP maintained power easily with an increased majority, riding on the back of their wartime success and increasing post-war Turkish, UGNR and Bucharest Pact prosperity and power.
had this been the result in real life, Turkey would've been a much better country right now

Adnan Menderes – even unluckier in ATL than OTL? He was tried and hanged in 1961 under the military junta after a 1960 coup d'état. Or might this loss spare him that fate in the ATL?
the execution was the result of 6-7 September pogroms against the Greek minority


Many thanks for this great Turkish Election episode!
 
  • 4
Reactions:
  • 3Haha
Reactions:
This was of course in line with Stalin’s commitment to provide some increasing distraction, prompting the Japanese to send most of the troops being gradually withdrawn from occupied China to the Soviet border and provincial anti-insurgent garrisons in supporting the puppet regimes in Mengkukuo and Manchukuo rather than to South Korea itself.

Japan has the good fortune to be drawing down forces in China at just the right moment - which doesn't bode well for Kim!

The results meant that CHP maintained power easily with an increased majority, riding on the back of their wartime success and increasing post-war Turkish, UGNR and Bucharest Pact prosperity and power.

So I'm guessing only one province (Bursa) voted for the opposition? This is certainly an excellent result for İnönü right now. He has created a system that could easily sweep the CHP from power in the future if free and fair elections are permitted, but one that could easily be abused to ensure the continuation of single-party rule.

Adnan Menderes – even unluckier in ATL than OTL? He was tried and hanged in 1961 under the military junta after a 1960 coup d'état. Or might this loss spare him that fate in the ATL?

I would say his chances are better as he's never likely to be in a position of power.

On 16 May the Soviet Union announced that it was cutting the remaining reparations, owed to it from Germany, by half.

I suspect it will take more than this to keep Germany pacified...
 
  • 2
  • 1Like
Reactions:
Thanks to the select few remaining commenters - I think there are still many reading, but the general comparative quietness of the forums of late (in the parts I frequent, anyway) has perhaps spread to this venerable old warhorse, it seems, as it approaches its seven year mark next month. But still, on with the show! :)
Turkish politics is sometimes difficult to explain or comprehend with the usual left-right dichotomy. CHP can always be regarded as center-left due to progressive social and mixed economic agenda, and later in 1965 Inonu would use the exact term. On the other hand in this early republican era, it is difficult to classify a as the founder party of the republic as left, since left needs to be an alternative to the existing. But when we classify CHP as right or conservative, then since all the remaining parties are either far right or reactionary, we are left with no left parties other than fringe communist ones. So if we exclude CHP, the first party to ever have seats in the parliament was Mehmet Ali Aybar's socialist Workers' Party of Turkey all the way in 1965 with 3% of the vote. There hasn't been a center-left party with significant number of seats other than DSP and SHP, both of which were formed by former CHP supporters after the 1980 coup outlawed CHP. So, even though it might seem unintuitive, maybe it's best to call CHP center-left.
As always, your insights into Turkish politics are always very interesting. As mentioned before, I’ve ’copped out’ to a certain extent by going with the in-game factional definitions rather than the more realistic and complex OTL ones (taking the alt history disclaimer). But I do enjoy (as with other aspects of the AAR) being able to note the key similarities and divergences that the alt historical theme of the game and now ‘made up’ epilogue throws up whilst riffing off the broad otl timeline which I use to inform and broadly guide the nature, sweep, pace and timing of the alternate developments.
had this been the result in real life, Turkey would've been a much better country right now
Maybe there’s some hope then in the ATL :)
the execution was the result of 6-7 September pogroms against the Greek minority


Many thanks for this great Turkish Election episode!
Then Menderes may well survive in the ATL then. Thanks for all your supports, over years now!
Japan has the good fortune to be drawing down forces in China at just the right moment - which doesn't bode well for Kim!
A mix of fortune, but pushed by necessity and intelligence reports.
So I'm guessing only one province (Bursa) voted for the opposition? This is certainly an excellent result for İnönü right now. He has created a system that could easily sweep the CHP from power in the future if free and fair elections are permitted, but one that could easily be abused to ensure the continuation of single-party rule.
That’s right. It was how Inonu intended it to work, when he was mugged by reality in OTL. The odds were arranged for ‘par’ being a 50/50 outcome, but the RNG spoke for the people by returning him with a thumping majority. Not unreasonable, given the great success he has been able to demonstrate.
I would say his chances are better as he's never likely to be in a position of power.
It seems so.
I suspect it will take more than this to keep Germany pacified...
The powder keg is primed, but it needs some spark to go off (I have some potential ones in mind) and for now the Soviets and their German puppet government have too strong a hold to be seriously challenged for the time being. Skorzeny is more of a colourful but marginal actor in the political theatre - I do t see him as embodying a serious Fascist resurgence. But there is perhaps more potential for such a dark outcome in this world than OTL, given the circumstances. The alternatives are paternalistic nationalists yearning for the ‘lost opportunity’ of the brief post-war Turkish-run administration overturned at the ‘Geneva betrayal’, liberal western aligned centrist democratic forces or perhaps more internationalist Social Democrat types.
Chapter 233 is not threadmarked.
Thanks for pointing that out. And for noticing - I guess you must be on the catch up path. There’s an open invitation if you have any comments or questions relating to old episodes: I always enjoy any comments, whether brief or more involved. This offer is open to all readers/lurkers. :)
 
  • 1Love
  • 1Like
  • 1
Reactions:
Then Menderes may well survive in the ATL then. Thanks for all your supports, over years now!
Thanks for all the great stories you've written my friend, I'm merely commenting :)
 
  • 2Like
  • 2Love
Reactions:
Chapter 276: June 1950
Chapter 276: June 1950

ejbVj8.jpg


---xxx---

Japan

On 6 June the "Red Purge", a political action by the Tokyo government against officials of the Japanese Communist Party, was launched. Over the next seven months, the purge was extended to party members and sympathisers, and 20,997 public and private employees were fired from their jobs, leftist newspapers were put out of business, and leftist student organisations were raided.

Q4SrIo.jpg

JCP leaders Kyuichi Tokuda, Sanzō Nosaka and Yoshio Shiga (from left to right) immediately following the end of the Second Great War. Released during the aftermath, they were all ‘purged’ from political activity in June 1950, as anti-communist sentiment hardened and tensions on the Korean peninsula mounted. The started operating underground from that point.

---xxx---

Soviet Bloc

The Communist governments of Poland and Germany agreed 7 June to set the border between their two nations as the Oder River and the Neisse River, with the Germans relinquishing claims to the territory lost in Great War Two.

Soviet Finance Minister Arseny Zverev (b. 2 March 1900) told a joint meeting of the Supreme Soviet on 13 June that the nation's defence budget for 1950–1951 would be cut by 18.5%.

vKm8uN.jpg

Soviet Finance Minister Arseny Zverev.

---xxx---

United States

David Greenglass, a technician with the Oak Ridge and Los Alamos facilities in the American nuclear program, was arrested on 22 June and charged with spying for the Soviet Union. He implicated his sister and her husband (Ethel Rosenberg and Julius Rosenberg), as the persons who recruited him to the espionage. He agreed to testify against both of them, and would draw a reduced prison sentence. His wife, Ruth Greenglass, was never charged despite being identified as a Soviet agent.

tRc7TU.jpg

David Greenglass’s arrest mug shot, 22 June 1950.

In a small upstate Californian town, a certain couple had their photo taken by the local portrait photographer. They simply referred to themselves as ‘Bud and Perse’.

jUhIOq.jpg

‘Bud and Perse’, June 1950.

---xxx---

Korea

On 8 June newspapers in Pyongyang, the capital of Communist North Korea, published the manifesto of the "Central Committee of the United Democratic Patriotic Front", adopted the day before, announcing the goal of reunification of North Korea and South Korea starting with meetings on August 15.

An official of the League of Nations Commission on Korea crossed into North Korea on 10 June and received the text of that nation's proposal for unification with South Korea, bringing back three "peace representatives" from the North.

The three North Korean "peace representatives", who had crossed into South Korea on Saturday, were arrested by South Korea on 13 June.

A representative of US Secretary of State Dean Acheson told the South Korean legislature on 19 June that the US would come to South Korea's defence in the event of an attack, on a ‘one-for-one’ basis with Japan. The next day Acheson told a US Senate committee that it was unlikely that North Korea would go to war with South Korea.

dwHwH4.jpg

US Secretary of State Dean Acheson.

The Korean War began at 4:00 in the morning KST on 25 June 1950 (24 June – 7pm UTC), when South Korean army bases near the border with North Korea, at Yeoncheon, came under fire without warning. After 45 minutes of shelling, North Korean troops invaded with eight infantry divisions [six in OTL, plus an armoured brigade and three border brigades] coming across the 38th parallel. With many of their personnel on weekend leave, the six [four in OTL] South Korean divisions in the area were quickly put under pressure. One Japanese division was garrisoned in the nearby port of Suwon.

kLINn1.jpg

DPRK troops launch their initial attack on 25 June 1950.

ZJxrbN.jpg

That same day, in response to the North Korean invasion, League of Nations Security Council Resolution 82 was voted upon, calling for "an immediate cessation of hostilities" and for "North Korea to withdraw forthwith their armed forces to the 38th parallel". The vote was 9-0 – the USSR, a permanent member which could have vetoed the resolution was absent because it had walked out of the LN on 10 January.

xu7TpF.jpg

LN Commission on Korea cable of 25 June 1950, reporting on the invasion of the South.

---xxx---

Korea Mini-Wargame - Description

I’ve decided to play the Korean War as a mini-wargame, using a mix of the HOI3 map and IC/MP information and some game mechanics based around the old Avalon Hill Russian Campaign board game. Here are the basics, the rest I just moderate as I go along. I let divisions move two provinces in the weekly movement phase. Divisions have been simplified to infantry only, with LN divisions being composite rather than nationally based.

First, here is the blank map based on HOI3, with the MP/IC (straight from the game) VP cities indicated. Manchukuo and the USSR start the war as neutral. We can assume there’s a bit of low-level border skirmishing happening ‘off map’ along the GEACPS/USSR border, also perhaps a bit of PLA insurgency in Manchuria.

iPfUqV.jpg

This table summarises those six key cities.

5bLr8d.jpg

Here is the combat results (made into a ten sided die role rather than six to provide a bit more variation and uncertainty) and terrain effects tables. Instead of reducing odds or doubling defence in mountains, I’ve gone for subtracting from die rolls instead. And that is how LN-Japanese air power superiority has been represented. If the LN want to use air support for an attack, they must choose not to use it during their defensive phase (ie the DPRK move/attack phase).

Wrm7rx.jpg

Rather than making counters with combat strength numbers on them, those remain blank in display, but the table below shows the strength for each division by nationality, which will increase over time on an annual basis until 1953. South Korean units start off weakest, reflecting low training and poor initial equipment. By 1953 they will be on a par with the North. I just made this arbitrary, based on ‘the vibe’ I felt!

rXXGeH.jpg

The next table has the starting orbats, programmed initial reinforcements (showing a strong build-up of both Japanese and LN divisions), opportunities for subsequent reinforcements (ie new units) as the war wears on, and also provision for replacements (representing rebuilt units that have been effectively destroyed previously). For foreign powers, reinforcements can’t be rolled for in a month where replacements are required.

AFzXiQ.jpg

The two Koreas are not so restricted. At full occupation of friendly cities, DPRK gets one division and the ROK two for reinforcements and (if available) replacements. Hence the importance to the North of taking Seoul quickly, to halve that ROK rate. The table also contains the circumstances for a possible Soviet intervention and Japanese response from Manchuria (approximating the OTL PRC intervention).

This shows the start-up on the map, including the DPRK divisions that are initially held back while they worry about either a Japanese early intervention through Manchuria and (long term) the risk of an enemy amphibious assault on Pyongyang (and perhaps also representing ‘internal security’ requirements in the capital).

uBWUnr.jpg

And here are the victory/stalemate conditions I’ll be using. I may adjust these if I think they become unrealistic or otherwise not suiting the game/narrative flow. I’ll act as ‘dungeon-master’ on that and other gameplay aspects.

VuNvBO.jpg

I did a few brief run-throughs as I was developing the model, but not a full one yet. We’ll see how it goes! It’s not meant to exactly replicate the OTL progress of the war with the big sweeps back and forth, but we’ll see if it does (much will depend on early results, which can be quite variable).

---xxx---

The Korean War Begins

On 27 June US President Harry S. Truman ordered warships of the United States Seventh Fleet to assist South Korean forces in their resistance of the North Korean invasion. With North Korea refusing to withdraw its forces from South Korea, League of Nations Security Council Resolution 83 was voted upon, as a recommendation that "the Members of the League of Nations furnish such assistance to the Republic of Korea as may be necessary to repel the armed attack". The vote was 7-1, with Poland opposing, Egypt and India abstaining, with the USSR still absent.

Bfc12z.jpg

The LNSC voting on Resolution 83 in Geneva, 27 June 1950.

The U.S. Air Force used jet airplanes in battle for the first time on 28 June, when Lt. Bryce D. Poe II flew an RF-80F on a reconnaissance mission; the first use of American jets in combat would take place on 3 July.

On 29 June US President Truman held a press conference, where the phrase "police action" was first used to describe the Korean War. One reporter prefaced a question with the statement, "Mr. President, everybody is asking in this country, are we or are we not at war?" to which Truman replied, "We are not at war." Another reporter, not identified in the record, followed up a few minutes later with the question, "Mr. President, would it be correct, against your explanation, to call this a police action under the League of Nations?", and Truman responded, "Yes. That is exactly what it amounts to." One observer would note later that "Truman was constrained to answer that way", in that he had not asked the U.S. Congress to declare war and "did not want to validate the charge that he had circumvented the Constitution".

JaX3bY.jpg

US President Truman’s ‘Police Action’ press conference on Korea, 29 June 1950.

Korean War Combat: June 1950, Week 4

The DPRK made three strong attacks on the opening day of the war – on Kaesong, Incheon and the ROK’s capital Seoul. In this first week of the war, LN air power (principally provided by Japan and the US) was not available to assist.

OsorsR.jpg

Week 4 June 1950, DPRK movement phase.

The two smaller and harder attacks produced decisive victories for the North (one ROK division surrendered, another destroyed), but against all the odds, the most crucial attack on Seoul – whose possession by the North was critical to matching the South’s greater population numbers and potential industrial capacity – ended in a stand-off due to a valiant defensive effort.

After the DPRK’s advances and the ROK-Japanese line adjustments in response, a line was being barely held (due to the heavy losses in Kaesong and Incheon), with the Japanese moving in to try to hold Seoul.

sk9O5v.jpg

Week 4 June 1950, after the LN movement phase, where no attacks were attempted.
 
Last edited:
  • 4Like
  • 2Love
Reactions:
I did a few brief run-throughs as I was developing the model, but not a full one yet. We’ll see how it goes! It’s not meant to exactly replicate the OTL progress of the war with the big sweeps back and forth, but we’ll see if it does (much will depend on early results, which can be quite variable).
nice mini game! I wonder if there'll be other countries that send troops
 
  • 2Like
  • 1
Reactions:
In a small upstate Californian town, a certain couple had their photo taken by the local portrait photographer. They simply referred to themselves as ‘Bud and Perse’.

Turkey can't have eyes and ears everywhere but this still seems a little risky? Especially not taking the trouble to change their names... :eek:

The next day Acheson told a US Senate committee that it was unlikely that North Korea would go to war with South Korea.

How embarrassing for him...

"Mr. President, would it be correct, against your explanation, to call this a police action under the United Nations?", and Truman responded, "Yes. That is exactly what it amounts to." One observer would note later that "Truman was constrained to answer that way", in that he had not asked the U.S. Congress to declare war and "did not want to validate the charge that he had circumvented the Constitution".

The U.S. position is clear enough but that's a difficult balancing act for Truman. Notably in TTL this war is happening in the Japanese sphere of influence and although the U.S. has been repairing relations with Japan, I haven't noticed any indication of a thaw with the U.K. What is the British position on this conflict?

The vote was 9-0 – the USSR, a permanent member which could have vetoed the resolution was absent because it had walked out of the LN on 10 January.

The vote was 7-1, with Yugoslavia opposing, Egypt and India abstaining, with the USSR still absent.

The Soviets really aren't doing themselves any favours here! :D

I’ve decided to play the Korean War as a mini-wargame, using a mix of the HOI3 map and IC/MP information and some game mechanics based around the old Avalon Hill Russian Campaign board game.

Nice! :)

The two smaller and harder attacks produced decisive victories for the North (one ROK division surrendered, another destroyed), but against all the odds, the most crucial attack on Seoul – whose possession by the North was critical to matching the South’s greater population numbers and potential industrial capacity – ended in a stand-off due to a valiant defensive effort.

After the DPRK’s advances and the ROK-Japanese line adjustments in response, a line was being barely held (due to the heavy losses in Kaesong and Incheon), with the Japanese moving in to try to hold Seoul.

Despite holding Seoul, that's a tough start for the ROK and that line is now very thin. Presuming we get more of the same over the next couple of weeks, there's not going to be much left to stop the DPRK. The next week is week 1, so will the ROK receive replacements before the next round fighting (i.e. two divisions while they still hold Seoul) or afterwards?
 
  • 3Like
Reactions:
Considering how much of the faults in the OTL initial US response to Korea were down to just how ridiculously fast the US hung up their military after WW2, this gives them far more time to get themselves organized.
 
  • 1Like
  • 1
Reactions:
Great to see this is still going, and am all caught up once more.
That Korean War wargame looks interesting. Definitely more time-consuming than a few dice-rolls, but well worth it for the more detailed reporting we get from it. North Korea is looking like the likely loser. They really had to take Seoul early on to have the best shot at winning and they already missed that window, so now it's looking like a long slog as both sides gradually build up forces, which the Japan/US/Allies side seems most likely to win, unless we get a direct intervention by the Soviets which, for some strange reason, doesn't get reciprocated by the US.

I'm already looking forward to the Talking Turkey: Alternate Future Stellaris (II) AAR...

Have a great 2024.
 
  • 2Like
  • 1Love
  • 1
Reactions: