Utsunimiya's War - HoI3(TFH) Japan AAR

[Wraith11B]

Glad to finally see that the IJN is receiving the ships it needs to sail forth and bring us our place amongst the Great Powers.

As to the question put to the advisors, the United States will not tolerate such an action. Look to the reactions that the public had against the Business Plot, only revealed a few years ago. Perhaps Butler was overly embellishing of the details, but the reaction has been one of derision. It would take someone inside the halls of government pulling such levers of power which could destabilize that nation. Better to create sufficient conflict within the populace to remove any sort of threat of unity against our intentions. As long as we don't directly attack the United States until we are entirely ready, the US will never reach the necessary threshold of public opinion to oppose us.

 

[serutan]

I vote C - Order Yasuji Okamura to commit seppuku for having the impertinence to make this proposal.

Given the long history of incompetence of Intelligence, going with either of the other options would result in a coup attempt so badly bungled that it would result in an immediate American declaration of war against us.

The tea is appreciated.

 

[El Pip]

I vote C - Order Yasuji Okamura to commit seppuku for having the impertinence to make this proposal.

Given the long history of incompetence of Intelligence, going with either of the other options would result in a coup attempt so badly bungled that it would result in an immediate American declaration of war against us.

This is clearly the correct answer and nothing more needs saying.

Vote Option C.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I don't know what this is. But I will try to find out presently...

 

[generalis Julius Caesar]

I still need to read the backlog of posts, but I am quite looking forward to this.

 

[Eurasia]

I don't know what this is. But I will try to find out presently...

I still need to read the backlog of posts, but I am quite looking forward to this.

Welcome to the Mildly Interactive AAR! Pick a side, debate, argue, plot. You can't derail the AAR...too much.

 

[roverS3]

All right. Let's get this straight. Naval Engineers spend months theorising about Naval engineering and how to design and build the next generation of ships, and then, instead of putting them to work on a next generation ship design, like a Battleship, they get fired, and replaced by a group of automotive engineers, who will no doubt also be fired after they finish their theorising so some other group of academics can come up and theorise some more. This research strategy makes less and less sense as it goes on.

At least we are getting ships, though it's still only half of the Combined Fleet equation, but as our Naval Engineers only seem to get funding to theorise, who knows when a new Battleship design to go along with the Carriers will be ready for production.

Enough complaining about this government's unbalanced military research and military procurement strategies. Let's get to the meat of the matter. Should we let our inept 'intelligence' service attempt a coup?
Bearing in mind that this 'intelligence' service considers the chances of success low, the answer has to be a resounding no, at least not right now. Our spies have a proven history of overestimating their own capabilities, and then failing miserably, so if they say success is unlikely, it must be nigh-impossible, especially if they're the ones attempting the coup.

As for the question of Elections. We should re-evaluate the possibility of launching a coup after the results are known. That said, I have little faith in the entire enterprise of manufacturing a coup in the USA. I'd much rather we keep them close to us through diplomatic means. But, if they were to team up with the British, a coup may be the only option for us to maintain some freedom of movement in the Pacific.

In short: B. Wait until after the election.
But. Re-evaluate the chances of succes, get some naval intelligence types to join the effort, and reconsider. We really don't want this to blow up in our face. We cannot defeat the USN and the RN at the same time, not with the current level of naval funding and development.

RobaS3,
Mumbling to himself: "Really, a coup? They truly believe they can pull that one off, don't they? And I thought IJN captains were supposed to have an overinflated ego."

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Have gotten to 30th November 1936. Rather horrified by what I've seen so far.

Though this while sorry affair may be worth it just to watch the naval lot scream. And so far they've been squealing.

Can't wait for next year when the army lot starts complaining about the gov being too naval focused...

 

[El Pip]

Can't wait for next year when the army lot starts complaining about the gov being too naval focused...

I don't think we've actually got anyone who has been misguided enough to take the side of the IJA (aside from the author anyway). I can only imagine any Army supporter has done what the IJA leadership has conspicuously failed to do - commit seppuku out of shame, in an attempt to purge the dishonour of their constant miserable failure.

I suppose it is always possible Utsunimiya has already attempted seppuku, but is just too inept to do it properly and keeps mucking it up. Every wall in his house has a number of jagged holes in from where he somehow missed his own body with the sword cut, and there are the remains of several stabbed serving staff scattered about from the attempts that went really badly wrong.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

I don't think we've actually got anyone who has been misguided enough to take the side of the IJA (aside from the author anyway).

Discounting God, yes.

I can only imagine any Army supporter has done what the IJA leadership has conspicuously failed to do - commit seppuku out of shame, in an attempt to purge the dishonour of their constant miserable failure.

From this I suppose they did end up managing to achieve one of the greatest failures the navy can conceive of: winning the war in Asia and claiming all of China. No spoilers though.

I suppose it is always possible Utsunimiya has already attempted seppuku, but is just too inept to do it properly and keeps mucking it up.

Believe it or not, this happened often enough to be notable. Long sword, short hilt, traditional cut from belly to neck and...Well, you get a lot of people literally contemplating their navel as they wait for death.

 

[serutan]

Have gotten to 30th November 1936. Rather horrified by what I've seen so far.

Don't worry, you'll get to the fun part.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Hmm...Well I'm about 9 months into 1937. So far, the Chinese have barely put up much of a fight but the huge distances, bewildering army decisions and the front splitting to focus on both the national and communists at the same time have seen the war stall in the North. Then again, China is 10% away from complete collapse and surrender so the army isn't doing too bad a job, just look at little overshadowed by...

The Japanese navy, which has come into its own and won a lot of acclaim and support from domestic and foreign circles. However, it's a bit of a bitter pill because it turns out most of their success comes from them...serving as floating platforms for their bomber wings. Still, they are reciprocally naval planes so they get the credit, but it seems clear rhe future of warfare is in the air, with the navy to support that aim, and the army to support both of those...at least in Japan.

The actual commentary from armchair wackos back home remains amusing as ever. The army types are fariyl silent, focusing on the war and ignoring the naval lot entirely. The naval lot on the other hand have decided to celebrate their new found prestige and succes by splitting into three incredibly divisive and bitter factions, all of whom want the other two to commit seppuko (presumably this is why the naval advisors don't actually manage to achieve anything collectively).

Funnily enough, even though the carrier have been proven right over and over, they are the smallest or at least quietest of the three. The battleship bitches remain the kings of shouting, for the army to commit suicide, for the other naval factions to commit suicide, and increasingly for members of their own side to commit suicide. The third lot are submariners, presumably taking the ingame brokenness of subs and rolling with it.

Of course, this civil warring was recognised as being inappropriate, inefficient and stupid. A peace lact was declared and stuck to...for about three weeks before completely shattering.

My take from so far:

1. China is about to fall and we need a plan with how to win the peace (we should have sorted this beforehand but we are Japanese and beyond such things).
2. The naval lobby are all idiots or zealots, which means even when they are right (which is often) they seem obviously wrong. This is a bit of a problem.
3. The army are pretty good in comparison to the Chinese militia. However, they seem fairly inept and underequipped to fight an actual modern war. There is no way they will, for example, defeat the UK or US in a battle or ground war.
4. The navy's focus on subs and carriers turned out to be a pretty good idea, despite the horrible taste of innovation and lack of big guns. Battleships meanwhile have proven pretty good at their usual jobs. It seems likely that in the open ocean, battleships will be protected by carriers, whilst on the coasts, the battleships must protect the ground pounding carriers.
5. EVERYONE in the high levels of Japanese government and military decision making is an easily led idiot or a worryingly blind army zealot constantly missing obvious and large amounts of land and sea units. The only sensible one in the group (aside from the emperor of course) is the PM, and the rest are already planning ways to eliminate him.
6. All this being said, it seems likely that Japan will achieve its goals on the Asian mainland...but seems woefully unprepared and poorly led to achieve its dreams of compelte domination of Southern Asia, the old empires colonies and smacking the US out of the Pacific. I currently hold that throwing the army into a meat grinder against the Soviets seems deeply satisfying, but may not be the best thing for the empire in the long term...

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

The war is over and the national and communist Chinese are defeated.

However...

There are three warlord states left to take care of before anything else happens. And it is very clear that next time, camlaigns must be much batter planned and organised. No fuel crisis in the middle of wartime. No destroying plenty of working transport ships for no reason. And certainly no getting lost and wandering around China (or bombing empty fields).

After that, it seems Macau is being sized up as a target, which seems logical enough. We don't really have the capability of winning a war against the big European empires working together undistorted, but Portugal alone? We can probably take them.

And then...not sure really. It seems likely by that time the world will be at war, so it may make sense to adopt a degree of patience and watch for a bit, whilst strengthening our hold on the empire we will have won by that time. When it becomes clear who is to win, or that our aid will tip the balance overwhelmingly, then we strike and take our reward for our services.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

All caught up. Two more interesting wrinkles.

First, the new puppet wants us to somehow get them all of Mongolia for them. That may fit perfectly into our plans, but only if we're going after the Soviets. Which seems unlikely anytime soon.

Second, somehow not only are the amercians seriously considering electing an isolationist who also believes in facism (aka is going to get into plenty of wars as soon as they are given the power to do so) but also thinking of joining the axis for...presumably...no real reason whatsoever.

I suspect this won't end up actually happening. And the idea of the Japanese launching a coup to try and place them in power is both exceptionally stupid and guaranteed to get us involved in a huge war with the US (and probably the allies as well).

So no, I don't think the amercians will take too kindly to a few dozen Japanese agents, whom most in the US hold extremely racist views against, threatening their democracy by pulling an armed facist coup.

Not sure why this needed to be said. Having constantly and continually failed at being head of intelligence, I don't know where japan got the confidence to even concieve of this hair brained scheme.

...

All this being said, if we can get an alliance with the US (by any means necessary) then we essentially have won before we've even began. We can safely take over the entire Pacific, splitting it between us and the amercian 'anti-imperialists', then turn around and take down India and indochina too. Having gotten that under our belts, and establish as many puppet states as we can in the middle east to mess with the allies even further, we cab launch the final assault and take Siberia and Mongolia. Asia will be ours, the Pacific will be split between us and the amercians, and the rest of the world is irrelevant.

Or so it will be planned by the army, I think. One of yhe issues of the US alliance (the only one I can think of) is that japan will become even more suciidally overconfident and bite off way more than they can chew all at once...

 

[Eurasia]

Utsunimiya’s War
(HoI3 TFH - Interactive Japan AAR)
Chapter Ninety-Eight : No Coup (For Now) - 24.10.1938 To 31.10.1938

The Economic Front​

The economy was pretty stable for the rest of the month of October. Even with New Zealand and Venezuela canceling Trade Agreements with Japan there was little danger of it hurting the economy in any way.

A deal was even made with Canada to turn some of Japan’s excess coal into cash.

The Ministry of Armaments even had an announcement on the 27th. Their Research Team working on Supply Production had discovered ways to improvement on many of the methods used in the factories. This greatly increased supply output of current factory complexes.

After a short rest the same Team was sent to work on improving on the Army’s support weapons. It was believed they were, in fact, working on a new mortar for the infantry to use on the battlefield.

The Military Front​

The military, while seeming to be calm on the surface, were in fact having issues. As they normally did.

On the 29th the 6. Mountain Division AND the HQ of ‘China Operations’ were BOTH having supply issues. Why the HQ had deployed itself into a region where supplies were hard to receive was a mystery to those in Japan.

Many in the Navy pointed out that such behavior was the norm for those within the ranks of the Army.

On top of that the Mongol Army had information that was somewhat alarming. It seems the Soviet divisions across the border had been replaced with native troops.

At first the assumption was these units had been deployed to the border along Manchukio. But information from THAT border reported that at least two, or more, Russian divisions had been spotted leaving. Not just redeploying somewhere else along the border. No, they had been spotted moving directly north.

The theory was that the USSR was moving units westwards for some reason. Maybe while the populace saw Japan as a threat the government saw Europe as the threat. Or Finland. Or Poland.

Either way it meant slightly less Russian units on the border.

Misc. Events​

Not much happened in this short period at the end of October. The government tried to get Transit Rights from Siam on the 26th and was turned down. The people of Siam saw Japan as a threat and were unwilling to have Japanese troops on their soil.

In the United States a radio performance caused some people to panic. It seems many people thought the world was being invaded by aliens from Mars.

The Head of Intelligence announced, that between the 24th and the 31st of October Portugal captured three Japanese agents, Brazil captured one Japanese agent, the Netherlands captured one Japanese agent, and the US captured one Japanese agent.

Security reported that they had arrested one spy from the Philippines and one spy from Xibei San Ma.

---

The Prime Minister, Keisuke Okade, had asked his staff to schedule a time in which he, and the Head of Intelligence, could have a telephone conversation. He preferred face to face meetings as so much was lost when one couldn’t see the other person’s expression. But the times were changing and talking on the telephone did save time.

When it was time his staff helped him make the connection with Mr. Okamura’s office. He didn’t like dealing with the telephone operators. Talking to an unknown voice always unnerved him.

“Hello Mr Okamura?” the Prime Minister asked the receiver in his hand. “Yes, it is me. I have the results of our survey to the Advisers.”

He nodded, then remembered he was on the telephone, and added, “Yes, I would say we have a overwhelming opinion that a coup would be too damaging in our relationship with the United States.”

“The feeling seems to be,” he added, “is it should only be used if the Americans join the Allies. If they join the Axis, or stay independent, no coup should be launched.”

“Hum?” he responded to the voice on the other end. “The Communists? I don’t believe the Advisers had any thought of the US joining the Comintern. I would suggest that even then a coup would be out of the question. In the short term the Americans allying with the Russians would benefit us. The Comintern cares nothing for the colonies that the Europeans have in Asia and the Pacific. Nor would they care if Japan took Australia and New Zealand.”

He stopped to clean the lens of his spectacles and listened to the receiver. He nodded, remembered again that the Head of Intelligence could not see him, and added, “Yes, yes. In the long run the US joining the Comintern could be a problem. If the Comintern is not defeated by the Allies. Or…as impossible as it may seem…if they are defeated by the Germans. But let us worry about the Communists taking over all of Europe when it happen.”

He listened for a few seconds and added, “Yes, yes” every once and awhile.

“The final decision is for us to not kick the sleeping giant,” stated the Prime Minister when the voice on the other side stopped. “And I think, to be honest, the European nations will do all the kicking for us. Yes, well, we both have work to do. Anything else? No? Well, have a good day.”

The Prime Minister carefully hung up the receiver, placed his spectacles onto his nose, and sighed. At least the United States declaring war on Japan any time soon was one less thing he had to worry about.

 

[TheButterflyComposer]

Be interesting if the US really doesn't get involved with world affairs at all, even with a super expansinst japan taking over all of China and angling to take South East Asia as well...

 

[generalis Julius Caesar]

A good decision. As long as the giant sleeps Japan is ascendant with almost no major threat.

 

[Eurasia]

A good decision. As long as the giant sleeps Japan is ascendant with almost no major threat.

Yes and no. As Japan, when you normally join the Germany and Italy, your neutrality drops like a brick. And you can attack and annex a lot of the Asian nations. But as a independent nation my neutrality is being stubborn. The only nations I CAN declare war on are the Comintern and the Allies. And Germany isn't doing anything. At least nothing HELPFUL. This AAR might end up being the most ahistorical of them all - I might have nothing but decades of PEACE! How awkward.

 

[generalis Julius Caesar]

NO! Not peace!

 

[Wraith11B]

Peace! Peace! *Singsong* Peeeeeeeace!