What follows is the views of Kelebek and the Demon Ring [postgraduate students and (bleurgh!) trainee officers...at least that's what the bodies look like...] on the situation at hand throughout the world. A separate post will be given on their recommendations for committee.
The longest of these sectors stretches from the Adriatic Sea to Timisoara in south-western Romania and is principally held by Turkey, with some Soviet reinforcement. It is the only sector which has not seen any Axis breakthrough in the last month. Indeed, the Axis has not even attacked, preferring to adopt a defensive posture on this front, which is largely manned by Italy, Hungary and Slovakia, with some German reinforcement, mainly as expeditionary forces.
It cannot be underlined enough that this is the most important front for Turkey in the war. If it falls, the chances of the country surviving let alone remaining strong enough to gain anything from a potential Soviet victory are slim. As it stands, it is also the second most important front for everyone else as well, since it is a highly defended line with lots of troops either side of it dedicated to it. For the Axis, it falling would basically doom western Russia, Romania and most of Turkey (Russia's only real ally) whilst for the Soviets, it ties up much Italian and Hungarian support for Germany whilst also guarding their long flank. Action along this line is unlikely because of the deteriorating situation elsewhere. For the Axis, they can wait for the Turks to abandon it for safer regions so long as the other fronts progress. For the Comintern, it is purely defensive in nature.
German advances made in the first half of the month (solid red arrows) were extended in the second (dashed arrows). The Soviets are maintaining an unbroken defensive line but it is a bit thin. The province retaken by the Soviets (Kybartai, blue arrow) is under heavy German counter-attack but has not yet fallen. The province to its north looks like it will fall soon to a powerful German attack.
The Germans have held onto Brest-Litovsk and punched through two provinces deep to its north, with a German heavy panzer division leading the way.
It seems unlikely the central sector will fall soon, as there seems to be sizable Russian troops there still. However, that isn't the issue here. The better the Germans do in the north along the Baltic coast, the more likely it is yet another front will open, this time with Finland. Should the Axis actually manage to link their northern push with Finnish lands...there could be a gigantic flanking manoeuvre incoming. Even if this proves to not be the case, the Germans themselves could flank the southern front, which of course would have similar affects to the Yugoslavian line being broken.
This is the most dangerous situation for the Soviets and potentially for Romania and Turkey too. The Germans have continued their persistent offensive in this area, which has not only regained all the Polish territory lost to the Soviets at the start of the war, but has now pushed well into Soviet territory, past Lwow. While there are significant Soviet forces in the area, they seem unable to halt the German panzer onslaught.
If this persists in the open terrain south of the Pripet Marshes, it threatens to outflank the Romanian defences, forcing them to defend on a wider front than they are likely to be capable of. Turkey cannot both hold the long Yeniçeri Line and defend Romania’s eastern border, while the Romanians and Soviets cannot be relied upon to put in a solid defence themselves, especially if the Soviets are falling back into their own hinterland to the east.
The greatest issue with the front here is that even if the flanks remain secure to the north and to the south, this front is still faltering by itself. And the Russians do not have the troops elsewhere to handle a break here. Essentially, no matter where the break in the Soviet line falls, the Germans can launch devastating flanking attacks. We can only hope that they are distracted by Romania and pause to take that country before continuing on into Russia and moving against Turkey...hopefully by which time Turkish and Russian forces will have fallen back behind prepared defences. We agree that this front is the most dangerous, as whilst a break along any other point could provide at least some warning or time for Turkish forces to retreat to the Calistar line, a break here might cause a mass rout all along the Patriotic Front.
Romania continues to hold its border with Hungary quite effectively, with Soviet assistance. But the Axis have retaken many of the Hungarian border provinces previously contested by the Comintern and have pushed a dangerous wedge into the previously occupied eastern Hungarian salient. In combination with the larger German breakout further north around Lwow, it is this movement that may force a strategic withdrawal from the Yeniçeri Line, possibly with barely a shot being fired there. Either to shorten the line and help defend Romania’s northern and eastern approaches, or indeed to fall back further to the prepared defences in depth, surrendering most of the Balkans. Which would be a cruel and disappointing blow for the Glorious Union.
We remind the Cabinet that Romania exists to serve, as a meat shield and as meat sacks, for the Republics. Sacrificing it to save or even buy time for Russian and Turkish retreats is allowable, if unfortunate. Whilst this abandonment essentially means the Soviets will almost certainly be the ones controlling Romania if the Comintern do end up winning the war, for Turkey to survive it might be worth it.
Of interest is the number of apparently new Soviet divisions (most rifle, some garrison or other troops types) that have recently appeared in depth positions, mainly around cities (though not all have been thus garrisoned so far). The first map gives a broad overview of these north of the Pripet Marshes, the second to the south of them. Is Stalin making his own preparations for a strategic withdrawal - or (we hope not) abject rout? Notably, the Finns remain neutral for now, though firmly in the Axis corner by alignment.
With respect, we must operate on the assumption that Russian defence plans are irrelevant in their execution. We must only assume that they will work and will tie up most of Germany's war machine. If either is untrue, Turkey is already doomed.
This front has not been too active, though the Japanese have made a few more gains than the Soviets in the last month – but only one of these was in the last two weeks (dashed arrow in the east).
Stalin should, and perhaps is attempting, to stabilise the fronts in as many places as possible. He must know that numbers and time are on his side. He must simply halt the advance and then he can martial troops to deal with each enemy at a time. Achieving that halt however, may prove impossible, and if successful will cost millions of lives in the process.
The situation in Libya has continued to deteriorate rapidly. In the last two weeks, the Italians have raced east and are now approaching the key port of Bengasi. Their steady progress in the two months since 31 December can clearly be seen in the overview below.
A more detailed view, showing terrain and units reveals most of the forces facing the Italians seem to be HQs! Whether the few front line British (Iraqi) units that had been holding the line have been pocketed and destroyed or withdrawn eastwards earlier is unknown – the British aren’t saying. There doesn’t seem to be much to stop the Italians before Alexandria, at this rate.
n Ethiopia, the British have largely completed the reoccupation. But this has been an unwanted and potentially disastrous distraction: those British units could have been securing North Africa instead of wasting their time down there. They all now appear to have been ordered to concentrate in Mombasa by strategic movement. It is hoped this means they will be shipped to Egypt to see to its defence from the approaching Italians. But this concentration looks like it will take some time.
Whilst this may seem disheartening, the British appear to be playing the exact strategy mentioned above: one front at a time. They have space, time and troops to spare and thus are ensuring slow success by taking acceptable losses (using imperial meat shields as expendable cannon fodder) and also drawing out a dwindling supply of Italian armies away from their own defended territories and towards British guns. To jump in-universe and ignore all AI mistakes, it seems like Chamberlain is using expendable Iraqi forces and HQ units to lure the Italians into a massive trap. And if a few imperial dissidents and troublesome bureaucrats/politicians are removed by the Italians in the meantime, well...that's all according to plan too. It's quite in character for him, as seen thus far in the AAR (are we even going to see him by the way, or is he going to remain a shadowy emperor figure running rings and pulling strings?).
Nothing has changed there. The map previously provided on 15 February showing the possible invasion route to Riyadh via Ad Dammam is reproduced below, for Cabinet consideration.
This will be discussed in the 'what the hell do we do next' report coming later.
In the last month, a few more fighting ships went to "Davy Jones’ Locker". The Germans lost another submarine flotilla and the Italians a destroyer flotilla and a transport. Three major surface ships were also lost. All of them were poor old relics that probably shouldn't still have been plying the world's naval combat zones. Certainly not against the foes they found themselves pitted against.
[More Darwinian naval theory at play here! 
]
The British continue to make the potential invasions of Rhodes, Arabia and (yes!) Italy and Africa easier for us by picking off Italian ships. At the very least, we shouldn't have to worry about a naval landing on the Calistar line anymore...unless the Germans want to fight the British to get there.
The War Cabinet will meet on 1 March 1941. The following agenda has been circulated by PM Bayar to all members
[and key ministerial staff and advisors – ie all of you. ]
Noted. Kelebek will be there, along with a S.I.T.H. attachment. This time, the right decision
must be made. And we are a little annoyed with our Intelligence ministers...
The S.I.T.H. report on Intelligence, war plans and general comments on where to go next is being compiled now. The screaming should halt before the end of the day, no later.
