I'm definitely wondering how Sidestep managed that much AE (even eating non-cobeligerants, that's /a lot/) - did he trucebreak or no-cb somebody? Or just no -AE ideas/nothing to help it cool down? And also why he didn't just keep cycling them, as it looked like only 4 nations. Either way, maybe a little more caution was in order. . .
Blondie looks like the flip side of that, with an excess of caution. Why is there still so much Mamluk land sitting uneaten? Seems a shame to waste resources fighting Otto for Cairo when it looked like it would have been perfectly viable to take it (or at least block Ottos off from it) earlier on. And the same with not locking down former Mogadishu lands - unless that was a deal with Gujarat, hardly seems like they should have been able to get in there? AE/rebel issues/splitting peacedeals with Hormuz could always be limiting, but I'm still surprised the two of them haven't marked off + claimed more land. Not that they aren't doing well, but that Ottoblob just seems to get scarier.
Italy is in something of a tough place, not a lot of room to expand, especially with Burgundy seemingly interested in keeping Castile alive. With better coordination, they might have beaten Ottos, but they seem to be fighting tough wars for minimal gain. Seems like they really need to make a deal with some of the others who have an interest in Otto's land - or seeing Ottos weakened - like Ethiopia, Hormuz, or Theodoro. Without that, it seems like they're doomed to be out-expanded by those around them.
Marketing is another team that seems like they have a lot of potential, but seem to be held back by something - either a lack of coordination or lack of aggression. Both PLC and Muscovy should be free land if they're working together well, unless they have a lot fewer total troops than I'm estimating.
At the moment, it looks like Burgundy, Netherbritannia, Malwa, and Gujurat are the real power-players here. Will be interesting to see if the Malwa-Gujurat alliance holds, or if Trin is looking to form a proper Hindustan and unite the subcontinent.
KaiserJohan still has a chance to come back, depending on what he can manage to do during truces, but if Portugal and Netherlands keep double-teaming him like that, it'll be tough. He needs at least one of them to need to watch their backs in Europe, and I don't see that happening - marketing doesn't seem in any position to go after Bratyn, and Portugal's safe behind Spain so long as Spain keeps him as an ally. Unless, of course, Burgundy is merely "protecting" Spain until he's in a position to eat them himself. . .
That is the other way around. Nations around 300 developement become disloyal instead, stop paying tribute and THEN Ming intervenes.
Ming randomly breaking tributary, even when you've been paying your tribute, is definitely a thing. It may have been tweaked with the other tweaks to Ming + tributaries they've made in the upcoming patch, but last time I played in India, it was still going strong.