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Well just to put two in the lead who seem to think votes are stupid.

VOTE AEDAN
 
Let's take a look at all the ties from Day 1 and see if we can gleam anything from them. I would like to note that I did not count Randy's votes twice for his alderman trait until he made it public knowledge, as neither villager nor wolf would have known about it until. This provides us with what the players thought was the vote count.

Tie 1:
ramius3443: 2
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]

Witch Agatha: 2
Yvanoff [243]
EnvyDemon [254]

Johho and Chieron are less likely to be apart of the red pack. Yvanoff and Envy get negative points in that same regard.

Tie 2:
ramius3443: 3
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]

Culann: 3
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]

Yakman: 3
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Only Arkasas looks bad in this one (but only slightly, as he didn't create a tie(s) - the now revealed sorc and zealot did). I doubt 3 red packmates would stack ontop of culann like that, making me less suspicious of Wombat.

Tie 3:
ramius3443: 3
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]

Culann: 3
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]

Yakman: 3
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]

Witch Agatha: 3
Yvanoff [243]
EnvyDemon [254]
Sleepyhead 2.0
Negative points towards Sleepyhead 2.0 for widening the tie.

Tie 4:
ramius3443: 3
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]

Culann: 3
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]

Yakman: 3
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]

Witch Agatha: 3
Yvanoff [243]
EnvyDemon [254]
Sleepyhead 2.0

Ironhide G1: 3
madchemist [253]
R.Graymarch [272]
Caillean [273]
Negative points towards Caillean for widening the tie. The tie is broken by Wagon's vote on ramius.

tie 5:
ramius3443: 4
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]
wagonlitz

Culann: 4
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman

Wagon seems unlikely to be in the red pack (impossible if we believe his role claim). Only other important movement is by the now-dead Yakman.

tie 6:
ramius3443: 4
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]
wagonlitz

Culann: 4
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman

Yakman: 4
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike
Emperor Ike gets negative points for pushing Yakman back into the tie.

tie 7:
ramius3443: 4
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]
wagonlitz

Culann: 4
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman

Yakman: 4
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike

Ironhide G1: 4
madchemist [253]
R.Graymarch [272]
Caillean [273]
Dedonus
Negative points for me. :(

tie 8:
ramius3443: 4
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
Culann [257]
wagonlitz

Culann: 4
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman

Yakman: 4
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike

Ironhide G1: 4
madchemist [253]
R.Graymarch [272]
Caillean [273]
Dedonus

Witch Agatha: 4
Yvanoff [243]
EnvyDemon [254]
Sleepyhead 2.0
alxeu
Negative points for alxeu for reintroducing Witch Agatha into the tie.


tie 9:
Culann: 5
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman
Dedonus

Yakman: 5
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike
Randakar
Negative points for me again. :(

tie 10: -
Culann: 6
Team Wombat [242]
Ramius3443 [258]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Yakman
Dedonus
the_hdk

Yakman: 6
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike
Randakar
Randakar
Randy reveals he is an alderman. Negative points for the_hdk.

tie 11:
Culann: 5
Team Wombat [242]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Dedonus
the_hdk
yvanoff

ramius3443: 5
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
wagonlitz
Randakar
Randakar

Yakman: 5
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike
Culann [257]

Wagonlitz: 3
De Chat
yakman
Ramius3443
yakman/ramius switch to wagon causes 3-way tie. Wagon added to this list because he will be run up soon.

tie 12:
Culann: 5
Team Wombat [242]
CaptainGrimlock [the_hdk 246 > 259]
Dedonus
the_hdk
yvanoff

ramius3443: 5
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
wagonlitz
Randakar
Randakar

Yakman: 5
Aedan [247]
Arkasas [260]
marty99 [261]
Emperor Ike
Culann [257]

Wagonlitz: 5
De Chat
yakman
Ramius3443
madchemist
Avernite
Negative points to madchemist and Avernite. While Avernite's outing of the sorc Marty does make him an unlikely baddie (it probably makes mores sense to sacrifice the hypothetical wolf/zealot Avernite to keep the sorc safe and attached to their pack), it does not clear him. Culann's switch to wagon will break this tie

Tie 13:
ramius3443: 7
johho888 [241]
Chieron [251]
wagonlitz
Randakar
Randakar
Caillean
Dedonus

Wagonlitz: 7
De Chat
yakman
Ramius3443
madchemist
Avernite
Culann
EnvyDemon
This is the last vote movement before Wagon's Doctor Claim. Positive points to Caillean and me for placing dangerous votes on ramius. Negative points to EnvyDemon.

Of everyone involved about who are still alive, I think Emperor Ike and EnvyDemon come out looking the worst. Madchemist jumping onto Wagon also makes me suspicious. I would place Avernite in the same boat as Madchemist, if he hadn't outed the sorc Marty. the_hdk also has a little sus on him, too. This list might be useful to revisit in a few days once we get a better idea on people's roles. I'll go with Ike for adding Yak to the tie with the wolf Ramius, although I'm fine with any of the names I suggested here. Finally, I feel mine and Caillean's switch to Ramius at the end makes us unlikely to be part of that pack, despite our earlier vote switching throwing some suspicion on us.

VOTE Emperor Ike
 
Unofficial Vote Count

Aedan: 3
Sleepyhead 2.0 [607]
Emperor Ike [621]
Emperor Ike [621]

yvanoff: 2
beartjah [599]
aedan [619]

De Chat: 2
MAWofDoom [601]
Witch Agatha [614]

Arkasas: 2
Avernite [603]
johho [616]

the_hdk: 2
Ironhide G1 [620]
Ironhide G1 [620]

Witch Agatha: 1
Madchemist [596]

MAWofDoom: 1
the_hdk [610]

johho: 1
De Chat [618]

Emperor Ike: 1
Dedonus [622]

Not Voted: 10
@Arkasas
@Wagonlitz
@alxeu
@Caillean
@Chieron
Team wombat
EnvyDemon
R.Graymarch
Yvanoff
Yakman 2.0
 
Vote Jerman

I think her actions day one are quite suspicious and she did switch to me at a crucial point where Ram was pulling ahead, so I think she would make a very fine lynch tonight.
 
beartjah said:
Chieron and Yvanoff jumped on marty seemingly based on a combination of incorrect information and the idea that a 3-way early on day 1 is too broad a tie. Neither are really sensible reasons to be voting someone.
Click to expand...
To me, Marty's post sounded off, and I actually had assumed that he put Yakman in the lead. My case was based more on the post rather than the vote (though I had found the post by searching for places where candidates were run up fast). Both my votes so far were blind luck.
But you are right about Yvanoff - that widening of the tie to three candidates that early and with 3 votes total does not matter in the slightest.

Still a bit confused about the Randakar hunt. The aldermen must die for parity, but otherwise? The major goodies are more important in my book.
Also, Wagonlitz has not been hunted twice in a row, despite his claim.

Still no good inspiration for today. Of the current candidates, I'll
VOTE Yvanoff

Still mostly a gut feeling.
 
Where are people?
 
Dedonus said:
Negative points towards Sleepyhead 2.0 for widening the tie.
Click to expand...
I haven't played for a while, but for me it feels like ties give great information hours before deadline, you just don't want them at deadline early in the game. So why all the negative points? Maybe I'm just noobish about this, so please explain.
 
First of all, happy birthday GM ! did you see how I remembered that ? It deserves at least a free "survive the next lynch or hunt" token

Don't have time to make an analysis, can't be there at deadline, so I'll push up someone else. De chat is probably the shiftiest guy around in the other candidates

Vote de chat
 
Caillean said:
I haven't played for a while, but for me it feels like ties give great information hours before deadline, you just don't want them at deadline early in the game. So why all the negative points? Maybe I'm just noobish about this, so please explain.
Click to expand...
TIEs are great for information.
But not just for information on the ones in it.

If yo make too wide a TIE then it allows the baddies to basically pick and chose who to push forward, allowing them to save a mate who had got in danger.
TIES later than 3 or 4 people are bad for the village. Now, you can run up a new candidate. But you shouldn't just expand TIEs for the sake of it, as that's bad for the village.


Anyway, I think looking at the end of the day is better, as that was Ram, the confirmed wolf, vs me.
Jerman, aka EnvyDemon, made a vote which put me back into contention and hence made it easier for Ram to survive. And it was lookin like it might work until I role claimed.

Hence I think that we should give Jerman some more heat today.
 
Happy birthday @happycats517!!!

And damn... Those role-names...

Avernite said:
Marty99 is a CONFIRMED FALLEN EMPIRE (Sorceror)
Click to expand...
I really thought the fallen empire was a pack name and was confused why he was unattached at the end of the day.

But then... Who's not to be trusted. My gut feeling says De Chat is probably a baddy, so let's just vote on him for now and rethink a bit before the day is over.

Vote De Chat
 
Wagonlitz said:
Vote Jerman

I think her actions day one are quite suspicious and she did switch to me at a crucial point where Ram was pulling ahead, so I think she would make a very fine lynch tonight.
Click to expand...

There is no player named Jerman in this game. This vote is invalid.
 
Vote Envu

Hack GM is hack.



Why are we lynching de chat again?
 
Estimable joyous felines man, congratulations on being born. May you not be brutally murdered by any person whose name consists of an anime and a 90s-00s band at this time or any other.

Anyway... to answer Wagon's question, people are voting De Chat because he hasn't been around. That's it. That's the tweet. I find myself compelled by Wagon's argument (or perhaps "argument") about the envious one. Seeing as there's not much else to go on, I will vote to hang them by the neck until dead.

vote Envy
 
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