Werewolf Lite CDXIX: The Black Order Brigade [Village Victory]

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I didnt notice because the one from 2 hours ago was quite close :D
 
The fact that they decided to derail the current lynch with such a risky move would suggest that they didn't like where the lynch was currently going, which means I'm in favor of doublelynching Graf and Dedonus (Euro's replacement) tomorrow.

Oh yeah , Iforgot about the votesniping problem. So which should we do first? i find Graf/Euro the more suspicious of the two, due to his uncharacteristic absence.

No wait it was supposed to say Dedonius/Euro, but i accidentally wrote Graf instead.
For reference
 
Day 1
Claude LC: 5
Capibara (95)
aedan777 (133)
Wagonlitz (93 Cymsdale -> 152)
JermanTK (140 JermanTK -> 145 Unvote -> 156)
Xarkan (121 Capibara -> 130 JermanTK -> 167)

Xarkan: 4
Panzer Commader (96 JermanTK -> 139)
Euroo7/Ded (141)
alxeu (99 Druplesnubb -> 154)
Cymsdale (94 Druplesnubb -> 159)

JermanTK: 3
Druplesnubb (98 Cymsdale -> 114)
alynkio (119)
randakar (109 Capibara -> 116 Cymsdale -> 123 Claude LC -> 151)

Cymsdale: 1
Caillean (127)

alxeu: 1
Graf Zeppelin (102)

randakar: 1
beartjah (104)

Graf Zeppelin: 1
Claude LC (106)

Day 2
Cymsdale: 6
Druplesnubb (177)
Graf Zeppelin (198)
Panzer Commader (200)
Caillean (192 Graf Zeppelin -> 214)
beartjah (199 JermanTK -> 215)
alxeu(191 Xarkan -> 191 Cymsdale -> 191 Druplesnubb -> 217)

Wagonlitz: 4
randakar (195 Cymsdale -> 195 beartjah -> 208)
alynkio (209 Cymsdale -> 209)
JermanTK (212)
Cymsdale (201 Panzer Commader -> 218)

Panzer Commader: 2
Euroo7/Ded (203)
aedan777 (207)

beartjah: 1
Wagonlitz (193)

alxeu: 1
Xarkan (187)

Day 3 Pre Outing
Euroo7/Ded: 4
alynkio (277 Caillean -> 288)
Panzer Commader (236 Caillean -> 290)
beartjah (240 Wagonlitz -> 294)
JermanTK (306)

Graf Zeppelin: 3
Caillean (259)
aedan777 (291)
Wagonlitz (272 beartjah -> 292)
randakar (234 beartjah -> 234 Graf Zeppelin -> 267 Beartjah -> 305)

aedan777: 3
Graf Zeppelin (237 Wagonlitz -> 268 beartjah -> 282)
Druplesnubb (225 Wagonlitz -> 253 Caillean -> 296)

beartjah: 1
Xarkan (239)

Day 3 Post Outing
aedan777: 7
Graf Zeppelin (237 Wagonlitz -> 268 beartjah -> 282)
Druplesnubb (225 Wagonlitz -> 253 Caillean -> 296)
alynkio (277 Caillean -> 288 Euroo7/Ded -> 307)
JermanTK (306 Euroo7 -> 310)
Panzer Commader (236 Caillean -> 290 Euroo7/Ded -> 311)
beartjah (240 Wagonlitz -> 294 Euroo7/Ded -> 312)
Wagonlitz (272 beartjah -> 292 Graf Zeppelin -> 315)

Graf Zeppelin: 4
Caillean (259)
aedan777 (291)
randakar (234 beartjah -> 234 Graf Zeppelin -> 267 beartjah -> 305)
Xarkan (239 beartjah -> 326)

Day 4
Panzer Commader: 9
Wagonlitz (351)
Druplesnubb (355)
randakar (366)
Graf Zeppelin (367)
beartjah (373)
Caillean (391)
JermanTK (392)
Xarkan (403)
Dedonus (375 Graf Zeppelin -> 408)

Graf Zeppelin: 1
Panzer Commader (407)
 
Last edited:
Official announcement:

Tomorrow will be, because of events that are outside my control and did not plan for, a very busy day for me.
As such, while I will be able to provide a votecount at 3pm GMT, I will not be able to provide any more until deadline.
I will, however, be there on time to enforce deadline and update the game.
So please note that you will be on your own in terms of votecount after 3pm.
I am very sorry for this and would very much like to avoid this situation, but alas I can not.

(There's an outside chance I might be able to provide votecounts at 5pm GMT and a few minutes before deadline - but it is not likely, so don't expect them).
 
The results of Day 1 and 2 suggests that one but not both of Wagon and Jerman are wolves. They are the only ones unconfirmed on the day 1 Claude vote and Jerman was voting Wagon day 2 at a time when that vote was likely to lead to an actual lynch.
 
Sure I am aware of that but we have someone who broke the TIE against a confirmed wolf.
Nevermind that, I need to work on my reading comprehension :p


Anyway, I'm going to be somewhat short on time tommorow due to an evening lecture, so I suppose I'll need to start an attempt at finding the wolves now so I can actually make an informed vote tommorow.

Day 4: I see nothing that is even remotely interesting to look at. Panzer was a dead wolf walking and everyone jumped him, villagers and wolves alike.
Day 3: I like the logic on the wolves needing to REALLY not like where yesterdays lynch was heading to risk a fake outting. This would then put Dedonus and Graf under serious suspicion.
Day 2: The votesnipe that saved Panzer seems to be the most interesting feature of that day. This mostly puts me and Caillean under suspicion.
Day 1: I'm not sure what to make of this votecount. People created a three way tie involving at least two villagers and then one of the villagers saved himself.


So as far as I can see the main suspects seem to be me/Caillean and Graf/Dedonus.

I could probably write a 20 page long essay about how this was only about stopping a three way tie when we were lynching almost blind, but any villager worth his salt would know that someone claiming to be a villager is completely meaningless, so I'll refrain from doing that :p
That said, I'm reluctant to go after Caillean until we've got some more votedays in since she could've had the same logic as I had and we can't afford a mislynch to find out. The rest of her voting record doesn't stand out to me as extremely wolfish, so I'd rather focus on the other two.

That then leaves Graf and Dedonus.
I'm fairly certain there's going to be at least one wolf among them and most likely both. If I even correctly understand just what exactly happened this could've backfired had Alynkio realized in time that Panzer was lying to him. There must've been something to make the wolves take such a risk...

Euro: I have no idea what to make of day 1, and Euro's day 2 vote on Panzer is at least mildly clearing, though it could've just as well been an ailibi vote that got more attention than expected.
Graf: I don't see a lot of interest beyond not voting Panzer on day 2...
I'm really not sure what to make of this yet... Let's hope someone can point out what I'm not seeing here...




In the mean time I've also noticed something else:
Day 1: Jerman attempts to self vote, and then votes Claude without providing reasoning, though this is day 1 so forgivable. And it looks like this might've been self-preservation.
Day 2: Jerman votes Wagon with tie creation as reason. Said nothing about the other candidates that day.
Day 3: Jerman votes Euro for the tie and then followed the outting. Again no comments about who/why he thinks is a wolf.
Day 4: Obvious Panzer vote after initial confusion about what happened.

So far he only seems to have said/analyzed anything about who could be wolves on day 4 where the vote was pretty much set in stone once it was clear what just happened. And he only talked about Panzer that day. I'm not sure this proves him as a wolf, but I'd really like to see him start talking about who he thinks is a wolf because his almost complete silence on the matter is at least a bit suspicious.



Well this post got far longer than I thought it was going to be. I need to go to sleep, I'll vote tommorow once I've got a better idea who of Graf/Dedonus is more likely as wolf.
 
So Caillean is our best suspect now since she saved Panzer Commander ?

There's also you of course, with Aedan making a case against you just before he died.
And there is Druplesnubb, who responded to that post Alynkio made after the deadline in way that sounded a bit defensive.
I don't think we have a shortage of suspects, really.

Why Dedonus now when you said she is almost certainly a wolf if Panzer Commander is one ?

I mean sure Euroo is suspicious too but isnt that a better case ?

.. dedonus is euro ..

Sure I am aware of that but we have someone who broke the TIE against a confirmed wolf.

True.
But was that a wolf saving a packmate, or a villager making a choice?
For a wolf doing blatant saving is kinda risky, you know.

The results of Day 1 and 2 suggests that one but not both of Wagon and Jerman are wolves. They are the only ones unconfirmed on the day 1 Claude vote and Jerman was voting Wagon day 2 at a time when that vote was likely to lead to an actual lynch.

That makes them bad targets though. We kinda need to be sure today.
How strong is the evidence that they are not packmates, exactly?
 
There's also you of course, with Aedan making a case against you just before he died.
No, he didnt made a case or provide a single reason.
No one did so far made one beyond her behaviour is suspicious lets lynch her. What he did was revenge voting me it seems because I voted agaisnt him due to the case Druple made.


Happened several times now. Druples made a case, I said well thats reasonable and then someone voted on me because its suspicious. In one case because I didnt vote fast enough.
 
No, he didnt made a case or provide a single reason.
No one did so far made one beyond her behaviour is suspicious lets lynch her. What he did was revenge voting me it seems because I voted agaisnt him due to the case Druple made.

Behaviour can be wolfish. There is more to this game than just votes ;-)

Happened several times now. Druples made a case, I said well thats reasonable and then someone voted on me because its suspicious. In one case because I didnt vote fast enough.

Don't forget that wolves don't need a lot of reasons to vote villagers ;-)
 
Speaking of behaviour ..

Well this post got far longer than I thought it was going to be. I need to go to sleep, I'll vote tommorow once I've got a better idea who of Graf/Dedonus is more likely as wolf.

You mean "once you know what villager I can convince the village to lynch" ;-)
This whole post is filled with fluff, trying to accuse people but simultaneously keeping it vague enough for plausible deniability.

I don't think you are on team fascist.

Vote Beartjah
 
Speaking of behaviour ..



You mean "once you know what villager I can convince the village to lynch" ;-)
This whole post is filled with fluff, trying to accuse people but simultaneously keeping it vague enough for plausible deniability.

I don't think you are on team fascist.

Vote Beartjah
Uhm, are we looking at the same post here? The only thing in there I could see being viewed as vague is me not having good enough of an idea to choose between Graf/Dedonus?
But if you so badly insist I go and vote even before figuring out which is the best candidate for wolf:
VOTE GRAF
For what it's worth Euro/Dedonus at least still has his day 2 vote on Panzer going for him.
 
Right. Let's consider alternatives.
How do you feel about Drupplesnubb?
 
Let's consider the vote overview.

8 players left alive. 1 of them being me, I will not consider myself a suspect ;-)


In order of suspicion level, starting with people I consider the least suspicious.

- Myself.
I do not suspect myself of being a wolf, thanks.

- Euroded.
Voted panzer day 2, has also been voted by beartjah and jerman, and drupples said he wanted euro dead together with graf zeppelin multiple times. Three out of 8 people actively trying to kill him at some stage of the game just makes him feel less likely.

- Jerman.
Was voted by drupplesnub day 1, voted wagonlitz day 2, voted euroded day 3. A lot of interaction with other people and an early dangerous day 1 runup. I do not think he's likely.

- Caillean
Voted graf zeppelin day 3, other than that very little interaction.
I personally don't really see her as a suspect but that's purely based on personal interaction with her.

- Graf Zeppelin
Was voted by wagonlitz and caillean. Beartjah wants her dead today. It's a toss up as far as I am concerned.

- Wagonlitz.
Was voted by Jerman day 2. Voted beartjah day 2 quite early which feels like a bit of an alibi / throwaway vote. Wagon has had this tendency to die early, I would not put it beyond him to place a bunch of alibi votes. Was voting graf day 3, which makes him less likely to be in a team with graf.

- Drupplesnubb. Voted jerman the unknown day 1, other than that we have nothing on him. Don't think he's in a pack with Jerman, but that's about it. However, his reaction to Alynkio's post makes him look bad too in my view.

- Beartjah
Voted euroded day 3. Not much interaction with the rest of the village, apart from that throwaway from wagon. Some of his posts make me heavily suspect him, also that bandwagon vote on cymsdale could easily be seen as protective of wagonlitz. I feel he's a good candidate.


Now do you understand why I am asking about drupples? It's not just about if you saved a wolf or not, it's about people's interactions over the course of the game, who wanted to kill whom?

I suggest people start making similar lists, I want to compare notes. We need the village to agree on somebody today.
 
I looked closer into the events of day 2. Why was this sudden outing needed? And why did the pack hunt Alynkio, while they could have made him a lynch target easily? Why did Panzer open up before update? No easy answers on those questions.

There must have happened something behind the scenes that gave Alynkio more information than only not to trust Panzer at all. I don't think he could've convinced us to go for Panzer instead of him, after the fake outing.

And why did they want to kill Aedan that bad? I guess he somehow gave away indeed being a member of the JL. Let's look at his suspicions after his outing.

Morons, playing right into Alynkio's hands. Good job wolves, convincing a braindead village to kill me. Alynkio, Graf, and Drupple are almost certainly wolves, I'm less sure on the last one.

Alynkio was played as well, no information there.
Graf was quite suspicious to me to, but at this point I'm not that certain anymore.
Drupplesnubb definetly haven't got enough attention. We should definetly look closer to his behaviour.

Day 1 he was pushing on Cymsdale the villager, before switching to Jerman the unknown
Day 2 he was on innocent Cymsdale again.
Day 3 he was on Aedan pre-outing, while the wolfs apparently had reasons to want him dead.
Day 4 doesn't give us any usefull information about anyone.

And then there was his reaction to Alynkio's post.

I think there's a big chance Aedan was on the right track with him.

Vote Drupplesnubb
 
Of the remaining people then I think Drupple and Beathjah are the most suspicous. Bearthjah has just seemed weird throughout the games and doesn't really have much voting record for him. Same is true for Drupple, and furthermore he has made posts like the below which reeks of wolfishness. After all how would he know that Alynkio was dead at the time of posting those PMs.

Hence I think Drupple is a more likely wolf than bearth as drupple has made a lot of wolfish posts, especially around the Alynkio debacle, but I wouldn't be surprised if both are wolves.

Vote Drupple


Also, we need to remember that today is the last day so we can't afford to be divided. We need to agree on a candidate and then have all villagers be on that candidate to prevent the wolves from being able to snipe.

So players are literally allowed to post game-important information while dead on this forum?

Anyway, Lynch Panzer.
 
Of the remaining people then I think Drupple and Beathjah are the most suspicous. Bearthjah has just seemed weird throughout the games and doesn't really have much voting record for him. Same is true for Drupple, and furthermore he has made posts like the below which reeks of wolfishness. After all how would he know that Alynkio was dead at the time of posting those PMs.
During Nighttime everyone should assume that they're dead until proven otherwise. Also, Alynkio was kind of the obvious target seeing how he had information that would implicate Panzer.