Werewolf Lite CCCXXV - Twelve villagers, four wolves, and a seer walk into a bar...

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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

Bagricula

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Again why do you find it suspicious that I don't cement the front runners over half a day to deadline? To me you look like you want all discussion focused on the two frontrunners; because neither is your mate?

Wah? I only stated that it was strange ("far too pat") that the same names who voted last for alxeu were the names I had called out earlier.

You really have a bee in your bonnet about this. I think you think I take that one observation far more seriously than I do.
 

sexytoes

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I'd have thought it was obvious. If Dadarian is a wolf, you get to see whom he's willing to jump to and if any packmates try to rescue him by joining that switch. Actually a pretty good tactic, if you ask me.
Thanks! That was the intention. I've been borrowing heavily from Ironhead's performance in the last Lite.

What are these double standarts? That's EXACTLY what I was saying yesterday. And I got shunned by Wagon and aedan, post 124:
Wagonlitz said:
aedan777 said:
Furthermore, your logic is flawed in that you're assuming wolves will help packmates, since such behaviour quickly becomes obvious if a wolf is scanned and outed, or lynched despite the pack's efforts. You make far too many assumptions about how wolves will act. And your dismissal of Wagonlitz as a wolf for pointing out oddities in your claims is not helpful.
Exactly

Today Bagricula eventually agrees with me (press wolves by votes to see how packmates react), but follows with a vote immediately.
Good job!
I think between aedan/Bagricula/Wagon there are two wolves.

Vote aedan
Will vote any of this trio of needed.
 

EUROO7

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eleven hours and forty two minutes

 

Sleepyhead

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Normally I wouldn't put too much stock in this, but Wagon seems unusually defensive about it. That's a good enough place to start.

Vote Wagonlitz
Indeed, Wagon should be the priority lynch.
 

aedan777

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What are these double standarts? That's EXACTLY what I was saying yesterday. And I got shunned by Wagon and aedan, post 124:


Today Bagricula eventually agrees with me (press wolves by votes to see how packmates react), but follows with a vote immediately.
Good job!
I think between aedan/Bagricula/Wagon there are two wolves.

Vote aedan
Will vote any of this trio of needed.

Fairly different circumstances, and their argument for pushing players to see reactions is different than your insistence that wolves defend each other. Not to mention Madchemist also mentioned how it is a useful wolf tactic as well, which has been oh so conveniently omitted here. Madchemist's point on Bagrricula's vote is that by switching from a candidate who you suspect to another offers insight into who joins a vote switch in that manner. What you claimed was different.

Last time I respond to you. I recommend seer scanning Wagonlitz, I think 90% he is a wolf.

My statement is the follows:
-By voting one wolf, village encourages other wolves to vote other people, therefore revealing themselves
-If the villager is voted, no on can know, so that scenario is not worth considering
-So voting should be done in hopes of getting a wolf, so that his teammates help him
-However Arkasas does not fit that "wolves will save him" profile anyway, because he votes himself, and no wolf would risk helping him
-Therefore it is no point in voting Arkasas to lure wolves out. There may be a point to get rid of a bad villager, but voting him will not reveal the wolves.

Please stop replying to me, you obviously don't understand what I am saying anyway.

These are the assumptions you made, and again several are wrong. Rather than based on wolf votes in a specific circumstance, you believe that wolves will simply always vote to defend their packmates, which is simply ludicrous. May wolves will throw packmates under the bus at the slightest provocation, and few will make a concentrated effort to save a packmate on day one, instead leaving it to their packmate to get the votes off themselves. And there is again your plain stupid claim that Arkasas has to be a villager because he voted himself. This is why you were corrected yesterday. Notably you completely failed to defend your position against my criticisms yesterday, your attempts to do so today rely on an extremely limited understanding of the actions of better players, and a childish accusation against those who disagree with you.

I doubt you're a wolf, but I'd certainly prefer that, because you are a danger to this villager either way with this absentminded flinging of suspicion.
 

Cliges

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A danger, no less.

And that smirking avatar of his only compounds his suspicious demeanor.
 

Cliges

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What are these double standarts? That's EXACTLY what I was saying yesterday. And I got shunned by Wagon and aedan, post 124:


Today Bagricula eventually agrees with me (press wolves by votes to see how packmates react), but follows with a vote immediately.
Good job!
I think between aedan/Bagricula/Wagon there are two wolves.

Vote aedan
Will vote any of this trio of needed.

This is an interesting and revealing post by sexytoes, if I must declare so myself.

At first, you just might be led down that garden path to indulge in a bit of conjecture about "double standarts" being a misspelling. A gentle whim, no? To the contrary, the ever-observant observer will observe that our sexytoes is referring to the occasionally-celebrated "Russki Standart" mark of vodka, and that "double" refers to a twice-sized serving of the same spirit.

What is painfully obvious is that he's never had a double shot of Russian vodka. He's only heard rumor and faint murmur about Russia's 3rd finest export after Pushkin and this chick named Marina with whom I enjoyed blissful conjugal (well, conjugal-esque, let us not hide our pecadillos) elation in the second year of my undergraduate studies some time ago. Now then, is this mischief or credible role player? Or is it even vehement outrage about "yesterday"? Worth further pondering and soul-searching, regardless.

I'll arrive at a decision when I wake up.
 
Last edited:

sexytoes

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aedan777 said:
Fairly different circumstances, and their argument for pushing players to see reactions is different than your insistence that wolves defend each other.
aedan777 said:
If Dadarian is a wolf, you get to see whom he's willing to jump to and if any packmates try to rescue him by joining that switch.
"wolves don't defend each other"
"Wolves will rescue each other by jumping as well"

So "joining that switch" does not qualify as defending their packmate? What is it then?

The rationale behind my position is very simple and similar to yours. "Wolves change their behaviours when their packmeate is voted".
Also, if everyone thinks wolves do not change their vote to help their brother, they SHOULD do that because no one believes they will.
 

Rovsea

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No more than chess-playing computers. Ideally it'd create an arms-race of adaptive behaviors. Besides it isn't clear that appearing like a perfect villager is advantageous. You'd be a good scan and hunt target (which is problematic as a wolf and a village respectively).
I think the biggest problem with this is the sheer range of variables that affect how a player plays, of which only one is role/traits. And obviously, trying to apply this same logic to Big would soon become nearly impossible, with all the possible roles and traits that a player could have, and adding in all the different things that could change a playstyle (deadline is just one example).
 

Rovsea

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"wolves don't defend each other"
"Wolves will rescue each other by jumping as well"

So "joining that switch" does not qualify as defending their packmate? What is it then?

The rationale behind my position is very simple and similar to yours. "Wolves change their behaviours when their packmeate is voted".
Also, if everyone thinks wolves do not change their vote to help their brother, they SHOULD do that because no one believes they will.
THere's a reason why nobody does it, and that's because it's the first thing everybody looks for.
 

Rovsea

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OK, so what's the likelihood that Arkasas is saved third candidate?

Vote Arkasas

Let's find out.
 

Sleepyhead

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OK, so what's the likelihood that Arkasas is saved third candidate?

Vote Arkasas

Let's find out.
Wagonlitz defended him, vote Wagonwolf.
 

Sleepyhead

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But according to your logic then both must be wolfs. Why pick one over the other?
Because one was run up yesterday. Fairness holds that we run up the other today.
 

EUROO7

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seven hours and fifteen minutes

Bagricula -2- Dadarian, Wagonlitz,
Aedan -2- Lemeard, Sexytoes,
Wagonlitz -2- Sleepy, Madchemist,
Sexytoes -2- Bagricula, Nautilu,
Arkasas -1- Rovsea,
Rovsea -1- Cliges,
Dadarian -1- Ironhead,
Lemeard -1- Aedan,


NV - Esemesas, Arkasas

 

Wagonlitz

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Arkasas

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Vote Cliges

Because he was the third voter on a bandwagon, I don't have any better ideas, and I don't want to disturb the TIE at this time.