Werewolf Lite CCCXXV - Twelve villagers, four wolves, and a seer walk into a bar...

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    Real Strategy Requires Cunning

Wagonlitz

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What coincidences? What is more likely: that the wolves choose not to hunt a fairly probable villager to mess with you all for a while or that the seer contacted an unscanned player in the first two days?

How do you weigh this against the voting record which was screaming for sexytoes to be lynched?

Did you look at what the implications for other players of Ese being a wolf or a villager were?
If a seer bags two wolves in the first two nights he has a serious dilemma; take the chance not to be hunted on the third night or contact an unscanned villager; or do the outing himself. All three things happen equally frequent (when two wolves are already bagged) I think.
And the coincidences were Arkasas getting hunted the night of the outing, the PMs being shit and ese promoting a TIE.

Regarding wolves fighting each other, I think it should be a part of the game, though in this game it was a bit too dangerous, especially Wagonlitz vote count before the outing.
How was it dangerous I posted a count?
 

sexytoes

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How was it dangerous I posted a count?
As you said, it wasn't the death sentense, but I was legitimely worried you could get lynch. I believe I even wrote "why are we voting each other?" letter to our correspondence then.
 

Bagricula

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If a seer bags two wolves in the first two nights he has a serious dilemma; take the chance not to be hunted on the third night or contact an unscanned villager; or do the outing himself. All three things happen equally frequent (when two wolves are already bagged) I think.
And the coincidences were Arkasas getting hunted the night of the outing, the PMs being shit and ese promoting a TIE.

How was it dangerous I posted a count?
No. If the seer bags two wolves, he should have both outed. As soon as Ese only outed one wolf, Arky would have known the gig was up. The "information" value of waiting another day for your second wolf is not worth the risk of an unscanned villager walking away with your prior scans.

The numbers don't make sense otherwise. At Day 2, the village has 10 if you kill two wolves then Day 3 is 9 villagers vs 2 wolves. Then you have days and days of play to figure it out, even if the seer is hunted.
 

Bagricula

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You also keep your scanned and unscanned JL segregated thereafter in case your unscanned spokesperson is a wolf.
 

Wagonlitz

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No. If the seer bags two wolves, he should have both outed. As soon as Ese only outed one wolf, Arky would have known the gig was up. The "information" value of waiting another day for your second wolf is not worth the risk of an unscanned villager walking away with your prior scans.

The numbers don't make sense otherwise. At Day 2, the village has 10 if you kill two wolves then Day 3 is 9 villagers vs 2 wolves. Then you have days and days of play to figure it out, even if the seer is hunted.
If he contacts an unscanned then sure it might be wise to request both outed; though it will waste a day since there is no way a TIE with two outed wolves will stand. So it is also quite detrimental to the game.
 

Wagonlitz

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You also keep your scanned and unscanned JL segregated thereafter in case your unscanned spokesperson is a wolf.
You should scan your unscanned mouthpiece ASAP. Also if you have a scanned JL you shouldn't use an unscanned.
 

madchemist

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No. If the seer bags two wolves, he should have both outed. As soon as Ese only outed one wolf, Arky would have known the gig was up. The "information" value of waiting another day for your second wolf is not worth the risk of an unscanned villager walking away with your prior scans.

The numbers don't make sense otherwise. At Day 2, the village has 10 if you kill two wolves then Day 3 is 9 villagers vs 2 wolves. Then you have days and days of play to figure it out, even if the seer is hunted.
Yep. If the seer risks contacting an unscanned player, then he'd better tell about all the wolves he knows and force the player to out them right away. There's no reason at all to do anything differently.
 

marty99

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Yep. If the seer risks contacting an unscanned player, then he'd better tell about all the wolves he knows and force the player to out them right away. There's no reason at all to do anything differently.
Perhaps, but do we know Arkasas would do the right thing and do that. Especially given his increasingly erratic play lately. The answer is no.
 

madchemist

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Arkasas

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Why the hell are you guys assuming I would contact an unscanned player? Erratic, yes, completely incompetent, no.
 

sexytoes

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Why is it so bad?
When I am a seer, I will contact an unscanned vilalger just for the heck of it.
Probably.
 

Bagricula

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Why the hell are you guys assuming I would contact an unscanned player? Erratic, yes, completely incompetent, no.
What is not reasonable to me is contacting an unscanned player when you have two wolfs and not having both of them outed. It is on this assumption that this is reasonable that the case against Ese (and the defeat of the Village) rests.
 

Arkasas

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Why is it so bad?
When I am a seer, I will contact an unscanned vilalger just for the heck of it.
Probably.
Have fun with that, I guess?

What is not reasonable to me is contacting an unscanned player when you have two wolfs and not having both of them outed. It is on this assumption that this is reasonable that the case against Ese (and the defeat of the Village) rests.
Okay, but the fact remains that that wasn't what happened.
 

marty99

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What is not reasonable to me is contacting an unscanned player when you have two wolfs and not having both of them outed. It is on this assumption that this is reasonable that the case against Ese (and the defeat of the Village) rests.
Could also have been several other reasons which were outlined by people in the thread (before I even subbed in, mind). Namely, that Ark panicked when he got ran up first day, and that one of his scans may have been a hunter villager. Probably others.
 

Sleepyhead

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Now, is Arkasas Lithuanian or from Arkansas?
 

Arkasas

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Ironhead 5

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New big game here.

We're kicking it old school:
WEREWOLF CLXXVI
Village of the Damned


THE SETTING
This thread represents a Tavern. The Tavern is in the village green of a small, backwards village tucked away in a corner of the Carpathian mountains. You have lived in this village your entire life, living the simple life of a farmer, and you think you know the other patrons at the Tavern. But you don't really know them. Because behind the shifty eyes and hunched backs and angry scowls lies a deep secret that every villager here keeps. For some of them are not just villagers. Some of them are degenerate worshippers of an evil religion, and have transformed themselves into terrible creatures, such as Werewolves and Vampires. There is still hope; for some of these villagers are secretly heroes, hiding an identity that could deliver you and your fellow villagers from certain death at the hands of these foul beasts. A deadly battle must be waged between the forces of good and evil, and only one side will prevail. But this isn't a battle of axes and torches; because you do not really know who is good and who is evil, this will be a battle of wills. Each night, the werewolves will hunt one villager... pray that it is not you. And each day, you and the other survivors must come to this tavern to witness the terrible carnage wrought by the monsters, and to debate amongst your fellow villagers who must pay the ultimate price for this devilry. To defeat this terror, you must find the evildoers from amongst the village, and lynch them.