Werewolf Lite CCCXXV - Twelve villagers, four wolves, and a seer walk into a bar...

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Who were the wolves?

I am tremendously irritated given the amount of work I tried putting into this to absolutely no effect. How is it when there there were three wolves on the final day you all thought that the JL spokesperson was the safest bet?

I admit I'm not particularly skilled at this, but I don't think I'm just making noise for noise's sake.
The pms seemed absurdly short, for one. I mean, were it not for that any attempt at scapegoating would have failed, but I think there was about 4 sentences in total. And then he tried to make a tie that would have lost the game yesterday. Various reasons. Those, combined with the hunt on the seer and lack of hunt on JL spokesperson, made it effectively certain Arkasas revealed himself to the wolves. Turns out he done it in the thread tho. I missed that in my reading back.
 
Arkasas you fool. Well, well done I guess. You all done your best to try and sell each other out, but it worked out in the end. Ugh, vote analysis is just impossible these days. There is just no fun in Lite any more for me when it's like this.
I think vote analysis still is possible; this was a once in a blue moon opportunity; and there weren't really any sell outs. Even MC's vote on me wasn't a sell out; he simply got stock on me and couldn't move without compromising himself.

So someone tell me what happened. Did you hunt Arkasas purely because of that post? Why did you then not hunt Esemesas?
MC picked up on that post by Arkasas and quickly stated that if he was outed he wanted Arkasas hunted. (Funnily enough I wanted Arkasas hunted night 0, but got in minority; the majority wanted randy lynched because his 'in post' sounded like busy randy.)
Then when MC was hunted I let him have his Arkasas hunt although I wasn't convinced about Arkasas being the seer; so the seer bagging goes to MC. The ese stunt was the remaining three wolves work though I played the largest part in it (and had to snipe in a hunt for the first time ever). The first non ese hunt was to sow suspicion on him and to have the possibility of framing him, but we didn't expect it to go that well so ese was up for hunting the next night. Though then during the day I managed to build a case on ese, so we changed to Bagricula in order to have ese lynched today thereby winning.
You actually indirectly was part of the reason for the framing. It was a dangerous stunt and it wasn't easy, but it was daring and fun; and you told your mates last game when you prepared the fake outing that such stunts should be attempted and are fun. And I agreed with you so now I had the chance I wanted to take it and run with it.
 
I think vote analysis still is possible; this was a once in a blue moon opportunity; and there weren't really any sell outs. Even MC's vote on me wasn't a sell out; he simply got stock on me and couldn't move without compromising himself.

Not to mention that I half expected to be outed anyway.

By the way was ese actually scanned? That ghost post by arky just after deadline suggested he wasn't.

I PMed Arky after the hunt.
 
I think vote analysis still is possible; this was a once in a blue moon opportunity; and there weren't really any sell outs. Even MC's vote on me wasn't a sell out; he simply got stock on me and couldn't move without compromising himself.
And you were happy to just almost get killed like that? I mean you were leading the votes when the outing was made. Had there been none you'd quite possibly have been lynched.
Nautilu also put sexytoes into a tie that nearly killed him at some point.
MC picked up on that post by Arkasas and quickly stated that if he was outed he wanted Arkasas hunted. (Funnily enough I wanted Arkasas hunted night 0, but got in minority; the majority wanted randy lynched because his 'in post' sounded like busy randy.)
Then when MC was hunted I let him have his Arkasas hunt although I wasn't convinced about Arkasas being the seer; so the seer bagging goes to MC. The ese stunt was the remaining three wolves work though I played the largest part in it (and had to snipe in a hunt for the first time ever). The first non ese hunt was to sow suspicion on him and to have the possibility of framing him, but we didn't expect it to go that well so ese was up for hunting the next night. Though then during the day I managed to build a case on ese, so we changed to Bagricula in order to have ese lynched today thereby winning.
You actually indirectly was part of the reason for the framing. It was a dangerous stunt and it wasn't easy, but it was daring and fun; and you told your mates last game when you prepared the fake outing that such stunts should be attempted and are fun. And I agreed with you so now I had the chance I wanted to take it and run with it.
Fair enough. It worked brilliantly. (Although it still wouldn't have worked at all if Arkasas and Ese had any kind of thorough pm'ing correspondence.)
 
Cut it out. Now.
madchemist said:
Nautilu said:
But I actually do know that you are capable of voting a packmate; I've seen it in the current Lite.
No I will not. You allow x to report zombie threads and let him in the game, you allow xx to troll all players and let him, you allow xxx to report the whole thread and let him back. You allow xxxx to blow up his own side.
But every time I play you kick me in the dirt and vote me, because you know I will not report you.
This is you Pm. This is meta on Nautilu
 
Well sexytoes was an obvious wolf after I got hunted. Seriously there was no reason for me to be hunted, since I was still a possible lynch, and had just made things worse for myself by lynching two villagers, so why hunt me? Sexytoes had made clear his annoyance at me pointing out the stupidity of his argument, so he was the most likely instigator. Though esemesas certainly seemed like a good lynch for the seer nonsense. Wagonlitz was pretty much sure to win though, since pretty much everyone figured he was clear from madchemist. Probably should have questioned why he wasn't hunted, but eh that's mostly hindsight. Nautilu could have gone either way really. All in all, not such a great game from the village.
I didn't even submit the hunt order that night! So that certainly wasn't me! It was Wagonlitz, I believe, but I am not sure. =)
I wouldn't hunt, why would I? You thought I am dumb villager, that is a perfect position to be at; you don't consider me as wolf, at the same time you don't expect smart things from me. Perfect!
 
Frankly, I think the villagers were intrigued by the novelty of Ese being a wolf and JL spokesperson more than the boring other options and so wasted time on a risk for the thrill of the story.
 
Frankly, I think the villagers were intrigued by the novelty of Ese being a wolf and JL spokesperson more than the boring other options and so wasted time on a risk for the thrill of the story.
The other option required a lot of coincidence (which there just so happened to be by a freakishly long shot). Occam's Razor dictates that is the most likely explanation, even knowing what we do now. Every now and then lightning will strike, but you have to assume that it probably won't most of the time. I'd happily make the same move again if this situation arose once more.
 
The other option required a lot of coincidence (which there just so happened to be by a freakishly long shot). Occam's Razor dictates that is the most likely explanation, even knowing what we do now. Every now and then lightning will strike, but you have to assume that it probably won't most of the time. I'd happily make the same move again if this situation arose once more.

What coincidences? What is more likely: that the wolves choose not to hunt a fairly probable villager to mess with you all for a while or that the seer contacted an unscanned player in the first two days?

How do you weigh this against the voting record which was screaming for sexytoes to be lynched?

Did you look at what the implications for other players of Ese being a wolf or a villager were?
 
What coincidences? What is more likely: that the wolves choose not to hunt a fairly probable villager to mess with you all for a while or that the seer contacted an unscanned player in the first two days?

How do you weigh this against the voting record which was screaming for sexytoes to be lynched?

Did you look at what the implications for other players of Ese being a wolf or a villager were?
I have already outlined many of the coincidences, if you're not seeing them then you're not looking for them.
I don't see how the voting record was screaming for sexytoes to be lynched. With only one dead wolf, by a JL outing, and with nothing connecting MC to sexytoes, there was nothing indicating he was particularly wolfish. There just wasn't enough info.
 
I felt this entire game like I didn't have any villagers working with me. It was astonishingly frustrating, like everyone wanted to be a wolf, wasting their time on tu quoque attacks instead of putting forward hypotheses or engaging with other hypotheses.

I think the village was much more fun to play with last game.
 
Who were the wolves?

I am tremendously irritated given the amount of work I tried putting into this to absolutely no effect. How is it when there there were three wolves on the final day you all thought that the JL spokesperson was the safest bet?

I admit I'm not particularly skilled at this, but I don't think I'm just making noise for noise's sake.
People voted the JL spokesman because we framed him; and he himself helped with the framing.

Seriously there was no reason for me to be hunted, since I was still a possible lynch, and had just made things worse for myself by lynching two villagers, so why hunt me?
I cannot remember exactly why you were hunted; I think it was because I thought your analysis was getting close. Either way we needed somebody hunted who weren't ese; and we saw you as less lynchable than the others.
Probably should have questioned why he wasn't hunted, but eh that's mostly hindsight.
That was a large part of why ese wasn't hunted initially; I had started contemplating a frame job and we did talk about how it would make him suspicious, but a large reason was that if ese was hunted it would be reasonable to expect I would be next, so when I wasn't people would start asking questions. Then ese made the framing possible and we ran with it which is why I sniped back the hunt on Bagricula last night.

The pms seemed absurdly short, for one. I mean, were it not for that any attempt at scapegoating would have failed, but I think there was about 4 sentences in total. And then he tried to make a tie that would have lost the game yesterday. Various reasons. Those, combined with the hunt on the seer and lack of hunt on JL spokesperson, made it effectively certain Arkasas revealed himself to the wolves. Turns out he done it in the thread tho. I missed that in my reading back.
Indeed. The reason we changed the hunt yesterday from ese to Bagricula was that those PMs weren't really any proof; actually possibly making him more suspicious. And then his TIE promoting post; those two things made the framing golden so we sticked to framing him instead of hunting him. Also sexytoes do you see it was good I sniped back that hunt on Bagricula?

And you were happy to just almost get killed like that? I mean you were leading the votes when the outing was made. Had there been none you'd quite possibly have been lynched.
Nautilu also put sexytoes into a tie that nearly killed him at some point.
No I wasn't happy about it. Though MC was outed with 45 minutes left and Bagricula was just one vote behind me at the time of the outing. So I felt confident that I could save myself. So no I wasn't happy about it, but I also knew it wasn't a death sentence. And as mentioned it wasn't a sellout, but a vote which got stuck.
Fair enough. It worked brilliantly. (Although it still wouldn't have worked at all if Arkasas and Ese had any kind of thorough pm'ing correspondence.)
It indeed only worked because of those PMs.

Frankly, I think the villagers were intrigued by the novelty of Ese being a wolf and JL spokesperson more than the boring other options and so wasted time on a risk for the thrill of the story.
As marty mentioned Occam's razor said that ese had to be a wolf; the circumstances. which made the framing possible were just too impossible.
 
I have already outlined many of the coincidences, if you're not seeing them then you're not looking for them.
I don't see how the voting record was screaming for sexytoes to be lynched. With only one dead wolf, by a JL outing, and with nothing connecting MC to sexytoes, there was nothing indicating he was particularly wolfish. There just wasn't enough info.

See post 468. Now insert green for me and Lemeard (which was knowledge to you). Look at the Dadarian lynch. Look at the timing of the day 1 lynch.
 
I felt this entire game like I didn't have any villagers working with me. It was astonishingly frustrating, like everyone wanted to be a wolf, wasting their time on tu quoque attacks instead of putting forward hypotheses or engaging with other hypotheses.

I think the village was much more fun to play with last game.
I still don't see voting record screaming for sexytoes to be a wolf. I don't believe it was there.

Still, this happens sometimes. At least you got hunted because you were on the right track, that's better than what I got anyway. Keep playing and it'll come good soon.
 
See post 468. Now insert green for me and Lemeard (which was knowledge to you). Look at the Dadarian lynch. Look at the timing of the day 1 lynch.
*shrug* no wolves were in danger either of those days. Sexytoes had no wolf motive for making either of those votes. So, er, yeah. That's no indication of him being a wolf, really.