Werewolf Lite CCCXXV - Twelve villagers, four wolves, and a seer walk into a bar...

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Bagricula

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Night 0

Randakar, the villager, was hunted.

Day 1

alxeu: 6
Bagricula [68 Dadarian -> 121]
Madchemist [85 aedan -> 129]
Arkasas [67 Arkasas -> 71 Cliges -> 133]
Sexytoes [82 Lemeard -> 97 Wagonlitz -> 154]
Dadarian [51 Cliges -> 55 Arkasas -> 122 alxeu -> 146 Bagricula -> 158]
Wagonlitz [50 Nautilu -> 95 sexytoes -> 127 Bagricula -> 159]

Dadarian: 5
Aedan [52]
Nautilu [54]
Rovsea [72]
Cliges [61 Arkasas -> 138]
Ironhead [58 Wagonlitz -> 93 Arkasas -> 144]

Arkasas: 3
Sleepyhead [53]
Korona [62]
Esemesas [49 aedan -> 149]

aedan: 1
Lemeard [86 Dadarian -> 87]

Rovsea: 1
Alxeu [59]

Not voted: 0

alxeu, the villager, is lynched

Night 1

Korona, the villager, is hunted
 

Bagricula

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EUROO7

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Bagricula

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I'm toying with talking to some of friends who do analysis of free text about building predictive software to guess people's villager-wolf-seer status based on the content, timing, and sequence of their posts.

I've a bit of a side conjecture that the existence of wolves generates momentum in voting. Higher momentum periods ought to have more wolves, if so.
 

Bagricula

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Shall we look at people pushing Alxeu above all?
Granted Alxeu was a zombie, but still.

I would. Remarkably, sexytoes, Wagonlitz, and Dadarian are all right there.

It is far too pat that those first two were ones I'd called out for voting away from the Arkasas / Dadarian tie of earlier in Day 1. I am mulling to find the intersection of low data and likely wolfishness.
 

Bagricula

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I would. Remarkably, sexytoes, Wagonlitz, and Dadarian are all right there.

It is far too pat that those first two were ones I'd called out for voting away from the Arkasas / Dadarian tie of earlier in Day 1. I am mulling to find the intersection of low data and likely wolfishness.

In that spirit, I shall for the moment:

Vote sexytoes
 

Cliges

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Since it's painfully obvious that the wolves mad a grand move to save their packmate Dadarian, I'm going to get to the bottom of this by voting thus:


vote Rosvea

since he was painfully obviously hiding in the middle of that Dadarian vote, trying to look inconspicuous-like.

I'm also going to be getting to the bottom of this glass, so I'll have another. Another 5.
 

madchemist

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You didn't want your packmate Arkasas lynched, then you thought I outed him. Now face the consequences!

Normally I wouldn't put too much stock in this, but Wagon seems unusually defensive about it. That's a good enough place to start.

Vote Wagonlitz

Anything more you'd like to say about this vote, madchemist?

Not really. I'm fond of late day 1 vote switches as a tool for gaining additional information, and it was to a candidate that I'd already supported lynching.

I'm toying with talking to some of friends who do analysis of free text about building predictive software to guess people's villager-wolf-seer status based on the content, timing, and sequence of their posts.

Cool. How would that work, exactly?

I've a bit of a side conjecture that the existence of wolves generates momentum in voting. Higher momentum periods ought to have more wolves, if so.

So you think wolves are the primary motivators of shifts in voting? Wouldn't that be somewhat context dependent; i.e. wolves might try to save a packmate or shift to a specific target they want dead, but they might stay silent if they're happy with the status quo?

Shall we look at people pushing Alxeu above all?
Granted Alxeu was a zombie, but still.

Well, I'm not too excited by that due to my own presence among alxeu's voters, but it's certainly not unreasonable to expect that there might be a wolf or two in there.
 

Bagricula

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Not creating vote switches but adding momentum to them in a way that would be characteristically different from villager behavior. A clear headed villager shouldn't be too swayed by momentum (since rarely are arguments for someone really that compelling).

Basically there are ways to systematically search large volumes of free text to find patterns. A friend is finishing her CS doctorate with a study identifying prescription drug addiction from postings in medical forums.
 

Ironhead 5

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VOTE DADARIAN

His packmates saved him yesterday. They shan't save him today.
 

Dadarian

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I'm toying with talking to some of friends who do analysis of free text about building predictive software to guess people's villager-wolf-seer status based on the content, timing, and sequence of their posts.

I've a bit of a side conjecture that the existence of wolves generates momentum in voting. Higher momentum periods ought to have more wolves, if so.

Well that ruins the game don't it.

VOTE DADARIAN

His packmates saved him yesterday. They shan't save him today.

Still not a wolf, but go old timer.

I guess.
 

Bagricula

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Well that ruins the game don't it.

No more than chess-playing computers. Ideally it'd create an arms-race of adaptive behaviors. Besides it isn't clear that appearing like a perfect villager is advantageous. You'd be a good scan and hunt target (which is problematic as a wolf and a village respectively).
 

Dadarian

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No more than chess-playing computers. Ideally it'd create an arms-race of adaptive behaviors. Besides it isn't clear that appearing like a perfect villager is advantageous. You'd be a good scan and hunt target (which is problematic as a wolf and a village respectively).

Heh. I'm still skeptical.
 

Wagonlitz

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I would. Remarkably, sexytoes, Wagonlitz, and Dadarian are all right there.

It is far too pat that those first two were ones I'd called out for voting away from the Arkasas / Dadarian tie of earlier in Day 1. I am mulling to find the intersection of low data and likely wolfishness.
Again why do you find it suspicious that I don't cement the front runners over half a day to deadline? To me you look like you want all discussion focused on the two frontrunners; because neither is your mate?

Vote Bagricula

Heh. I'm still skeptical.
So am I. Especially if only a select number of people would be sitting on this software.
 

Wagonlitz

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Bagricula: 2
Dadarian [186]
Wagonlitz [216]

aedan: 1
Lemeard [190]

Wagonlitz: 1
Sleepyhead [193]

sexytoes: 1
Bagricula [207]

Rovsea: 1
Cliges [208]

Wagonlitz: 1
Madchemist [210]

Dadarian: 1
Ironhead [212]

Not voted: 6
Arkasas []
Sexytoes []
Aedan []
Nautilu []
Rovsea []
Esemesas []
 

aedan777

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Bagricula: 2
Dadarian [186]
Wagonlitz [216]

aedan: 1
Lemeard [190]

Wagonlitz: 1
Sleepyhead [193]

sexytoes: 1
Bagricula [207]

Rovsea: 1
Cliges [208]

Wagonlitz: 1
Madchemist [210]

Dadarian: 1
Ironhead [212]

Not voted: 6
Arkasas []
Sexytoes []
Aedan []
Nautilu []
Rovsea []
Esemesas []

You have yourself on there twice as being voted by one person, so you actually have two votes on yourself.

My vote's good where it is. Others should follow suit.

You ever feel like explain the reason for this, or you just going to keep doing it?

Vote Lemeard

until he starts explaining his votes.
 

Wagonlitz

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You have yourself on there twice as being voted by one person, so you actually have two votes on yourself.
Thanks.


Bagricula: 2
Dadarian [186]
Wagonlitz [216]

Wagonlitz: 2
Sleepyhead [193]
Madchemist [210]

aedan: 1
Lemeard [190]

sexytoes: 1
Bagricula [207]

Rovsea: 1
Cliges [208]

Dadarian: 1
Ironhead [212]

Lemeard: 1
Aedan [219]

Not voted: 5
Arkasas []
Sexytoes []
Nautilu []
Rovsea []
Esemesas []