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My day 1 commentary was entirely meant in jest. A hunt from the sign-up order in reverse, if that is what is being done, does not specifically highlight any person as more suspicious than other possibilities. The suggestion that it does point to specific candidates relies on a couple assumptions-
1. Only inactive players would let a standing order like that stand.
2. Every wolf is inactive, since if there was one active wolf they could change the hunt order.
Neither of these is remotely certain. Hunt order in reverse is a simple standing order, and if the wolves don't have a better lead to follow, they might leave it since it's just as good as a random pick. Especially if they suspect, or plan to point to, inactive villages would take the heat for it. And then we have the second assumption, which really torpedoes the whole idea. Now in a small big game like this we don't know how many wolves there are. But I find it very hard to believe we'd only have one wolf. And if there are at least two wolves, then either could change the hunt order. So pointing to one inactive player because of a standing hunt order is ludicrous.
Ultimately trying hunt analysis is usually a waste of time, and indeed, my day 1 vote was if anything a parody of that.
vote Graymarch
not much to go on, really. Not really feeling it for other players outside of the current tie, either.
not much to go on, really. Not really feeling it for other players outside of the current tie, either.
Having a standing order is, if anything, a mark that there is at least one experienced player in the wolf pack(s) rather than the opposite.
Given the size of the game and the fact that the hunt order seems to be based on the same standing order it seems likely there is just one pack.
If we assume that one pack did change the hunt order that could have meant noone was casting dangerous votes on any of them, or given the activity of the game that most of them are inactive.
BTW how would people handle this in a Lite game when there is little time for the game to develop and votes to analyze?
So the case on Greymarsch is that he voted based on inactivity and the case on me is inactivity. Yup, makes sense.
Regardless, I feel myself compelled to
vote R. Graymarsh
Regardless, I feel myself compelled to
vote R. Graymarsh
Don't know how I feel that R. Graymarch is being run up to 5. Graymarch is an easy target for wolves to run in previous games. Johho's vote makes sense on account of self-preservation I guess.
Unofficial Vote Count Day 2
R.Graymarch: 5
Avernite [87]
MAWofdoom [97]
Captain Grimlock [98]
Chieron [103]
Johho [105]
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91]
Sleepyhead [92]
Ironhide G1 [100]
Dedonus: 1
Aedan [88]
Not Voted: 3
@Arkasas
@Wagonlitz
@R.Graymarch
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vote Graymarch
partially to avoid any deadline shenanigans (unlikely as those may be) and partially because I've only just now remembered I have to vote
partially to avoid any deadline shenanigans (unlikely as those may be) and partially because I've only just now remembered I have to vote
Final Vote Count Day 2
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87]
MAWofdoom [97]
Captain Grimlock [98]
Chieron [103]
Johho [105]
Arkasas[109]
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91]
Sleepyhead [92]
Ironhide G1 [100]
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88]
Wagonlitz[108]
Not Voted: 1
@R.Graymarch
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87]
MAWofdoom [97]
Captain Grimlock [98]
Chieron [103]
Johho [105]
Arkasas[109]
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91]
Sleepyhead [92]
Ironhide G1 [100]
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88]
Wagonlitz[108]
Not Voted: 1
@R.Graymarch
R. Graymarch the infiltrator werewolf was lynched
Johho888 the plotter werewolf was hunted by zombie hunter Captain Grimlock
Wagonlitz the villager robber was hunted
Johho888 the plotter werewolf was hunted by zombie hunter Captain Grimlock
Wagonlitz the villager robber was hunted
Well I'm probably getting lynched then.
In my defense, would I have really gone out and said/suggested that both inactives being wolves of the same pack was unlikely if I knew that and both were clearly leading in votes?
Since neither wolf has a pack affiliation, means we're dealing with one pack (unless the color alone is supposed to signify pack affiliation).
So as the only person who didn't vote a known wolf yesterday, I'm going to need to convince you to lynch someone who did.
On the bright side, Graymarch was such an easy candidate, it's hardly difficult to imagine a packmate throwing him under the bus. Especially late in the day when it was beyond clear he was getting lynched. Like what Arkasas did.
Vote Arkasas
In my defense, would I have really gone out and said/suggested that both inactives being wolves of the same pack was unlikely if I knew that and both were clearly leading in votes?
Since neither wolf has a pack affiliation, means we're dealing with one pack (unless the color alone is supposed to signify pack affiliation).
So as the only person who didn't vote a known wolf yesterday, I'm going to need to convince you to lynch someone who did.
On the bright side, Graymarch was such an easy candidate, it's hardly difficult to imagine a packmate throwing him under the bus. Especially late in the day when it was beyond clear he was getting lynched. Like what Arkasas did.
Vote Arkasas
Well, well, well. Looks like I was correct. And we bagged two wolves.
I'll do some analysis later, but I'm thinking our resident t-rex dinobot is a goodie, unless he's being a really ruthless baddie.
I'll do some analysis later, but I'm thinking our resident t-rex dinobot is a goodie, unless he's being a really ruthless baddie.
Day 1 Final Vote Count:
Alxeu: 3
Sleepyhead [60]
Chieron [65]
Avernite [55 Captain Grimlock -> 78]
Captain Grimlock: 2
ironhide g1 [59]
Dedonus [58 Chieron -> 77]
Dedonus: 2
Alxeu [61]
Arkasas [71]
Arkasas: 1
Aedan [57]
Ironhide G1: 1
Wagonlitz [62]
Avernite: 1
MAWofdoom [65]
Culann: 1
R.Graymarch [72]
Not Voted:
CaptainGrimlock
johho888
Culann
Alxeu: 3
Sleepyhead [60]
Chieron [65]
Avernite [55 Captain Grimlock -> 78]
Captain Grimlock: 2
ironhide g1 [59]
Dedonus [58 Chieron -> 77]
Dedonus: 2
Alxeu [61]
Arkasas [71]
Arkasas: 1
Aedan [57]
Ironhide G1: 1
Wagonlitz [62]
Avernite: 1
MAWofdoom [65]
Culann: 1
R.Graymarch [72]
Not Voted:
CaptainGrimlock
johho888
Culann
Final Vote Count Day 2
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87]
MAWofdoom [97]
Captain Grimlock [98]
Chieron [103]
Johho [105]
Arkasas[109]
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91]
Sleepyhead [92]
Ironhide G1 [100]
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88]
Wagonlitz[108]
Not Voted: 1
R.Graymarch
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87]
MAWofdoom [97]
Captain Grimlock [98]
Chieron [103]
Johho [105]
Arkasas[109]
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91]
Sleepyhead [92]
Ironhide G1 [100]
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88]
Wagonlitz[108]
Not Voted: 1
R.Graymarch
So we have one person not voting on the now confirmed American airlines, i.e. aedan. As a villager you obviously cannot know, but his case was bad whereas the ones on the wolves were better. Still I'd suspect cultist or sorc and not wolf.
Hunt on Wagonlitz quite stupid on the American's part, he would've been the easiest lynch today had he lived, coming with a late throwaway with two wolves in the running..
Everyone else was on a wolf. With johho active, packmates would be more likely to put a vote on Graymarch. Grimlock's zombie hunt would be reckless as a packmate. I wouldn't rule out Avernite or Mawofdoom as potential mate, but I think the later voters ought to be more likely. With Arky having a vote already I'll
Vote Chieron
Hunt on Wagonlitz quite stupid on the American's part, he would've been the easiest lynch today had he lived, coming with a late throwaway with two wolves in the running..
Everyone else was on a wolf. With johho active, packmates would be more likely to put a vote on Graymarch. Grimlock's zombie hunt would be reckless as a packmate. I wouldn't rule out Avernite or Mawofdoom as potential mate, but I think the later voters ought to be more likely. With Arky having a vote already I'll
Vote Chieron
Well..
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87] => I started the case. .
MAWofdoom [97] => helped push johho out of single contention, but could've gone for Dedo instead. Unlikely.
Captain Grimlock [98] => Same as above, really. Also killed johho and all
Chieron [103] => sus, could only pick which wolf died.
Johho [105] => sus & dead.
Arkasas[109] => sus, could only pick which wolf died
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91] => Started the case
Sleepyhead [92] => pushed johho in the lead. I could almost see a frustrated Sleepy try to score points off inactive mates, but... Could've gone for Dedo, too.
Ironhide G1 [100] => Kinda sus, but a Dedo vote by IG could still have reinvigorated that case at 3-2-2 instead of making it 3-3-1.
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88] => only one not on a wolf.
Wagonlitz[108] => dead
Not Voted: 1
@R.Graymarch => sus & dead
So yeah, my esteemed colleagues got most of it. Out of the suspicious, I think Arky is more dangerous if he is a sole wolf (I think we can't have more than 3).
Vote Arkasas
R.Graymarch: 6
Avernite [87] => I started the case. .
MAWofdoom [97] => helped push johho out of single contention, but could've gone for Dedo instead. Unlikely.
Captain Grimlock [98] => Same as above, really. Also killed johho and all
Chieron [103] => sus, could only pick which wolf died.
Johho [105] => sus & dead.
Arkasas[109] => sus, could only pick which wolf died
Johho888: 3
Dedonus [91] => Started the case
Sleepyhead [92] => pushed johho in the lead. I could almost see a frustrated Sleepy try to score points off inactive mates, but... Could've gone for Dedo, too.
Ironhide G1 [100] => Kinda sus, but a Dedo vote by IG could still have reinvigorated that case at 3-2-2 instead of making it 3-3-1.
Dedonus: 2
Aedan [88] => only one not on a wolf.
Wagonlitz[108] => dead
Not Voted: 1
@R.Graymarch => sus & dead
So yeah, my esteemed colleagues got most of it. Out of the suspicious, I think Arky is more dangerous if he is a sole wolf (I think we can't have more than 3).
Vote Arkasas
Wait holy crap I helped lynch 1 wolf and shot another!
Um, I mean, this was all part of my master plan. Yeah…
Um, I mean, this was all part of my master plan. Yeah…
- 2
Here's my read on the nine remaining players.
Dedonus (me): I know I'm a villager, but obviously everyone else can't just take my word for it. But I believe my Day 2 vote indicates my villager status. When I had cast my vote for Johho, R.Graymarch already had one vote. It would be quite a reckless to vote one packmate early in the day when another packmate already received a vote.
Captain Grimlock: Him zombie hunting Johho indicates to me that he's not part of the Johho/R.Graymarch pack. Plus, he was part of the three way tie on Day 1. Since there was little movement on Day 1, that indicates to me the wolves were fine with the candidates (and they obviously would not be fine with one of their own being a candidate).
Avernite: I'm leaning towards villager for Avernite. However, throwing an inactive R.Graymarch under the bus isn't difficult (although I don't know if doing so this early in the game was the right move) and breaking the tie could have been a way to earn villager cred, but at the moment, there's more suspicious players that are worth looking at.
MAWofdoom: Made a throw-away vote on day 1. When he made his Day 2 vote, the count was 2 for Johho, 1 for me, and 1 for R.Graymarch. While it is possible that MAWofdoom could be a baddie, as they probably would have preferred R.Graymarch to be lynched instead of Johho, it would have been more favorable to push me up along side Johho so the baddies would have a chance of having no wolves get lynched, instead of guaranteeing one.
Sleepyhead: At the moment, there's not much we can infer from his Day 1 vote on Alxeu. I feel that his Day 2 vote might imply he's a villager. At the time of his vote, R.Graymarch, Johho, and I all had one vote. I believe that voting Johho during that "board state" would not have been favorable for the wolves, especially since R.Graymarch was the much easier target (as shown by him being lynched yesterday).
Ironhide G1: Again, I'm leaning villager here. The vote was 3 r.graymarch, 2 johho, 1 me. It is possible that this was an alibi vote to take advantage of two wolves being in the front runners, but this early in the game, I would think the werewolves would rather preserve their numbers if they could.
Chieron: I could see Chieron's vote as a wolf trying to steer the lynch towards an inactive R.Graymarch over Johho. Also, on Day 1, since I believe all three front runners (Alxeu, Grimlock, and me) are all villagers, I would reckon that there has to be a baddie vote on one of us. And Chieron has a vote on Alxeu. But to be fair, Sleepy, Avernite, Ironhide, Arkasas, and I all had votes on the three front runners (my vote can be explained as a vote of self-preservation, as I was one of the three front runners on Day 1 and my vote came in at the same time as Avernite switched his vote). I'm interested in hearing what Chieron has to say for himself.
Arkasas: Essentially an identical case to Chieron's. He almost zombie'd yesterday, which does fit into my theory about the wolves being inactive on Night 0 and 1 and not deviating from their standing hunt order.
Aedan: Because he voted for me yesterday, Aedan is the only remaining player who didn't vote for a wolf on Day 2. Because it became rather clear that one of R.Graymarch and Johho was going to be lynched yesterday (and thereby allowing alibi votes for the remaining wolf/wolves), Aedan's vote against me doesn't necessarily indicate he's a baddie. However, his argument against me on Day 2 gave me baddie vibes at the time of the post. I agree with Sleepy that if Aedan is a baddie, he's probably a non-wolf baddie.
Therefore, at the moment, I find Chieron and Arkasas most suspicious, with Aedan following closely behind them in 3rd place. Since Arkasas already has 2 votes, I guess there's only one place to put my vote.
Vote Chieron
Dedonus (me): I know I'm a villager, but obviously everyone else can't just take my word for it. But I believe my Day 2 vote indicates my villager status. When I had cast my vote for Johho, R.Graymarch already had one vote. It would be quite a reckless to vote one packmate early in the day when another packmate already received a vote.
Captain Grimlock: Him zombie hunting Johho indicates to me that he's not part of the Johho/R.Graymarch pack. Plus, he was part of the three way tie on Day 1. Since there was little movement on Day 1, that indicates to me the wolves were fine with the candidates (and they obviously would not be fine with one of their own being a candidate).
Avernite: I'm leaning towards villager for Avernite. However, throwing an inactive R.Graymarch under the bus isn't difficult (although I don't know if doing so this early in the game was the right move) and breaking the tie could have been a way to earn villager cred, but at the moment, there's more suspicious players that are worth looking at.
MAWofdoom: Made a throw-away vote on day 1. When he made his Day 2 vote, the count was 2 for Johho, 1 for me, and 1 for R.Graymarch. While it is possible that MAWofdoom could be a baddie, as they probably would have preferred R.Graymarch to be lynched instead of Johho, it would have been more favorable to push me up along side Johho so the baddies would have a chance of having no wolves get lynched, instead of guaranteeing one.
Sleepyhead: At the moment, there's not much we can infer from his Day 1 vote on Alxeu. I feel that his Day 2 vote might imply he's a villager. At the time of his vote, R.Graymarch, Johho, and I all had one vote. I believe that voting Johho during that "board state" would not have been favorable for the wolves, especially since R.Graymarch was the much easier target (as shown by him being lynched yesterday).
Ironhide G1: Again, I'm leaning villager here. The vote was 3 r.graymarch, 2 johho, 1 me. It is possible that this was an alibi vote to take advantage of two wolves being in the front runners, but this early in the game, I would think the werewolves would rather preserve their numbers if they could.
Chieron: I could see Chieron's vote as a wolf trying to steer the lynch towards an inactive R.Graymarch over Johho. Also, on Day 1, since I believe all three front runners (Alxeu, Grimlock, and me) are all villagers, I would reckon that there has to be a baddie vote on one of us. And Chieron has a vote on Alxeu. But to be fair, Sleepy, Avernite, Ironhide, Arkasas, and I all had votes on the three front runners (my vote can be explained as a vote of self-preservation, as I was one of the three front runners on Day 1 and my vote came in at the same time as Avernite switched his vote). I'm interested in hearing what Chieron has to say for himself.
Arkasas: Essentially an identical case to Chieron's. He almost zombie'd yesterday, which does fit into my theory about the wolves being inactive on Night 0 and 1 and not deviating from their standing hunt order.
Aedan: Because he voted for me yesterday, Aedan is the only remaining player who didn't vote for a wolf on Day 2. Because it became rather clear that one of R.Graymarch and Johho was going to be lynched yesterday (and thereby allowing alibi votes for the remaining wolf/wolves), Aedan's vote against me doesn't necessarily indicate he's a baddie. However, his argument against me on Day 2 gave me baddie vibes at the time of the post. I agree with Sleepy that if Aedan is a baddie, he's probably a non-wolf baddie.
Therefore, at the moment, I find Chieron and Arkasas most suspicious, with Aedan following closely behind them in 3rd place. Since Arkasas already has 2 votes, I guess there's only one place to put my vote.
Vote Chieron
Ah, it’s so good to be doing this again.
Hopefully this is the start of a bright new age of Paradox Plaza werewolf
Hopefully this is the start of a bright new age of Paradox Plaza werewolf