Werewolf CCXXXIX - Conspiracies of Essos

[Hax]

Deadline

 

[Wagonlitz]

I disagree. I'll admit that I'm not used to doing vote analysis, but the vote moving away from a wolf who may die is often the fault of other wolves

You admit not being used to doing vote analysis and then yet disregards it when others tell you how vote analysis done.

And how do you know that one of Hax, EURO, and LK is a wolf?
The frankly smells like a crovax. You just outright said that the vote moved away from a wolf, eamning that you imply knowing one of those three is a wolf...

 

[LlywelynII]

The frankly smells like a crovax. You just outright said that the vote moved away from a wolf, eamning that you imply knowing one of those three is a wolf...

I said something similar. It looks that way to us. We'll know if he's a wolf soon enough, I'd imagine.

Deadline

You're not the GM.

 

[PanzerCorps]

Deadline was 5 minutes ago.

Day 2 Final Votecount:

Capibara: 8
Alynkio[347]
TheFatWombat[352]
Dedonus[323 De Chatillon -> 370]
Humancalculator[345 Alynkio -> 397]
Wagonlitz[366 LlywelynII -> 367 unvote -> 386 Yvanoff -> 410]
LlywelynII[313 Avernite -> 331 Wagonlitz -> 406 Yvanoff -> 412]
Hax[322 alxeu -> 357 Chefjones -> 413]
alxeu[361 Capibara -> 390 Yvanoff -> 416]

Wagonlitz: 5
De Chatillon[342]
LatinKaiser[346]
MarcoRossolini[349]
Chefjones[311 Hax -> 389]
Capibara[388 Yvanoff -> 415]

Yvanoff: 4
Chieron[333]
Andre Bolkonsky[394]
Claude LC[395]
Johho[316 Capibara -> 405]


Chefjones: 2
Marty[312]
Arkasas[348]

Marty: 2
Avernite[310]
Euro[319]

humancalculator: 2
Sleepyhead[321]
Reis[338]

Hax: 1
Ironhide[324]

Alynkio: 1
Beartjah[327]

Sleepyhead: 1
Tamius23[332]

Avernite: 1
nepechri[340]

Euro: 1
Jiu Jiujiu[353]

LatinKaiser: 1
Yvanoff[372 Wagonlitz -> 381]

Not Voted: 1
Jacksonian Missionary

Any objections?

Tomorrow wordy updates will return, promise! I even had so many ideas for what to write in this one, but it takes so much time I don't have

 

[LlywelynII]

Tomorrow wordy updates will return, promise! I even had so many ideas for what to write in this one, but it takes so much time I don't have

Thank you for your work, and filling in the details for yesterday and today whenever is more than welcome. =)

 

[PanzerCorps]

Thank you for your work, and filling in the details for yesterday and today whenever is more than welcome. =)

Something that I considered and might well do!

The hope for now is a quick update, then hopefully send out every PM that I have to, then later on today or tomorrow update the first page with day 1 and 2 info.

 

[Hax]

You're not the GM.

KATE MOSS, she calls me BIG BOSS

 

[PanzerCorps]

Day 2

Capibara the villager with 1 use of spying powers is lynched

Night 2

Chieron is hunted, but found and brought in by the doctor. Whether he survives or not will be revealed at tomorrow's deadline. Until then, he must follow ghost rules.

 

[Capibara]

 

[Hax]

Spoiler: Day 1 Final Votecount

Day 1 Final Votecount:

Emperor Ike: 6
Alynkio[261 nepechri -> 274]
Hax[199 Reis -> 264 LatinKaiser -> 284]
Wagonlitz[215 LatinKaiser -> 287]
Avernite[184 Sleepyhead -> 263 Emperor Ike -> 281 Euro -> 290]
Sleepyhead[221 Dedonus -> 291]
Yvanoff[187 Hax -> 295]

Euro: 5
Chieron[198]
Arkasas[230]
Jiu Jiujiu[256]
Claude LC[262]
Emperor Ike[239 Claude -> 297]

LatinKaiser: 3
Johho[217]
Andre Bolkonsky[240]
nepechri[207 Beartjah -> 267]

Hax: 3
Ironhide[197]
LlywelynII[193 Dedonus -> 252]
Jeray[186 Jacksonian Missionary -> 265]

humancalculator: 2
Tamius[223]
Dedonus[185 Chieron -> 235]

Avernite: 2
Chefjones[192]
Jacksonian Missionary[218]

Wagonlitz: 2
alxeu[194]
LatinKaiser[200 LlywelynII -> 224]

nepechri: 2
TheFatWombat[210]
Euro[208 Beartjah -> 211]

Dedonus: 1
Reis[228]

LlywelynII: 1
De Chatillon[212]

Jeray: 1
MarcoRossolini[271]

Sleepyhead: 1
Beartjah[204]

Claude LC: 1
Capibara[188]

Not Voted: 2
@humancalculator
@marty99

Spoiler: Day 2 Final Votecount

Day 2 Final Votecount:

Capibara: 8
Alynkio[347]
TheFatWombat[352]
Dedonus[323 De Chatillon -> 370]
Humancalculator[345 Alynkio -> 397]
Wagonlitz[366 LlywelynII -> 367 unvote -> 386 Yvanoff -> 410]
LlywelynII[313 Avernite -> 331 Wagonlitz -> 406 Yvanoff -> 412]
Hax[322 alxeu -> 357 Chefjones -> 413]
alxeu[361 Capibara -> 390 Yvanoff -> 416]

Wagonlitz: 5
De Chatillon[342]
LatinKaiser[346]
MarcoRossolini[349]
Chefjones[311 Hax -> 389]
Capibara[388 Yvanoff -> 415]

Yvanoff: 4
Chieron[333]
Andre Bolkonsky[394]
Claude LC[395]
Johho[316 Capibara -> 405]


Chefjones: 2
Marty[312]
Arkasas[348]

Marty: 2
Avernite[310]
Euro[319]

humancalculator: 2
Sleepyhead[321]
Reis[338]

Hax: 1
Ironhide[324]

Alynkio: 1
Beartjah[327]

Sleepyhead: 1
Tamius23[332]

Avernite: 1
nepechri[340]

Euro: 1
Jiu Jiujiu[353]

LatinKaiser: 1
Yvanoff[372 Wagonlitz -> 381]

Not Voted: 1
Jacksonian Missionary

 

[Wagonlitz]

I disagree and find the three ties yesterday more fertile.

If you lynch just one of them on day 1 then you will start wondering if one of the two survivors is a baddie, in case the one lynched is a goodie.
If you lynch all three then you will know if any of them was a baddie, but then you also run the risk of likely having three villagers dying just by pure statistics.

Whereas if you do as we did and switch to somebody fourth minutes before deadline then you still get the information from the lynch as well as having as much information on living players as possible. We now have three people who we know who wants to save and who wants to kill. And once any of those three eventually die then we'll get information on whose who voted in the TIE.

Hence why it's beneficial to consider an outsider when you have a TIE of poeple who were frontrunners most of the day.

Yvan pilling onto it after it was decided is less sus than someone who breaks a tie to make sure ike dies or than someone who gets the train going.

What? That's extremely faulty reasoning. piling onto it after it's decided is literally the definition of a bandwagon and it's something wolves are way more likely to do than goodies as it's an easy vote and if it's a make being lynched then you also get an alibi vote in.
When wolves are lynched in bandwagons then the last people to vote them actually are suspicious as they quite well can be baddies alibi voting.

Breaking TIEs ont he other hand is something goodies should do. It's not really suspicious to break a TIE in itself. Now, if you break a TIE in favour of a baddie then it can be suspicious, but other than that then not relaly. And having a decisive vote is not really suspicious in itself.

 

[Chefjones]

What? That's extremely faulty reasoning. piling onto it after it's decided is literally the definition of a bandwagon and it's something wolves are way more likely to do than goodies as it's an easy vote and if it's a make being lynched then you also get an alibi vote in.

I'm going to disagree here and say it doesn't actually tell us much. I'm never treating it as an alibi vote solely because wolves can easily say "I was here after" like you say they do, but a town can also just as easily vote for someone they think is a wolf while they're in the lead even if the lynch turns out to be town.

When wolves are lynched in bandwagons then the last people to vote them actually are suspicious as they quite well can be baddies alibi voting.

This makes sense yeah. Wolves sacrificing an already dead wolf to look better is fairly common.

Now, if you break a TIE in favour of a baddie then it can be suspicious, but other than that then not relaly

Thats what I was getting at here. There were ties with other top candidates that I think theres a wolf within. When sleepy voted ike there were 4 on both ike and euro, and since I think theres a wolf in hax, euro, and LK, sleepy seems somewhat sus to me.

Either way, thanks for the tips, vote analysis is something I'm trying to improve on and this is the only forum I play on where I can really get into it (the other place I play tends to do hidden votes and rely more on comment analysis and roles)

With all that said, I'll put in an early vote for one of the Ike voters now and go do some schoolwork.

Vote Avernite

 

[Sleepyhead]

GJ by the doctor, hopefully we can get a hunter to shoot the culprit if chieron survives and gets a name, to not waste a day of voting.

Thats what I was getting at here. There were ties with other top candidates that I think theres a wolf within. When sleepy voted ike there were 4 on both ike and euro, and since I think theres a wolf in hax, euro, and LK, sleepy seems somewhat sus to me.

There was no established TIE at that point, but a SWITCH en cours.

 

[Sleepyhead]

Inclined to go for one of yesterdays throwaways:
Ironhide, Beartjah, Tamius23, nepechri, Jiu Jiujiu.

Excluded Yvanoff because he was on Wagon most of the day and not a good lynch with that claim.

Ironhide, Tamius, nepechri and Beartjah used the same flawed case on different people, that a vote switch day one is any sign of badness. Joined by many others on Wagon and the Yvanoff switchers.

Jiu Jiujiu tunneling Euro for RP, quite poor performance. Seems new though.

Fine with any really, beartjah is however throwaway 2/2 days so I land there.

Vote beartjah

 

[reis91]

Sorry for low activity, been a lot more busier than anticipated (and it might continue to be so for the rest of the week).

And here are my 2 minutes of clapping for the doctors of the world. True heroes.

 

[Avernite]

@Chefjones are you missing how yesterday the exact same thing happened, i.e. a bandwagon (pun not intended) suddenly saved someone?

Is it really better because Yvanoff claims to be a goodie and Capi was one?

That said, to the analysis mobile!

Chieron was hunted after voting Yvanoff yesterday and Euro day 1, and he was saved. Maybe, we'll see, but at least the doc was in the right spot. The odds of this are pretty ridiculous, so how did the doctor know? Obviously he can't come out to tell us, so we must try to follow his tracks. Chieron never wavered from his votes.

I know I am engaging in the arcane art of guild analysis, but it is telling that one day a guild member dies and the next a person may be saved. Was Chieron maybe in the guild with jeray and this unknown doctor? If THIS is the case, then it may be best to come out after all, because probably one of your guild members is a baddie.

But anyway, Dedonus (vote), Euro (voted) and Yvanoff (voted) have the only known interactions with Chieron, so you'd almost think it was dumb but happy luck by the doctor.

So this is inconclusive, throwawayishness it is; Sleepy obviously sore over the day 1 throwaway to pick beartjah I should pick chefjones for voting me twice with no real reason, and once being throwaway already... but well, he tried yesterday to belatedly care to keep Wagon in the lead.

Ironhide is tunneling, though he was lucky once to not be throwaway... but twice?

Vote Ironhide

 

[reis91]

Need more time to read the thread more carefully and collect my thoughts, but based on the voting I think we can't go wrong with looking at Hax and Alynkio today.

Vote Hax

@Avernite also raises important questions with the guild thing, though I'd expect the wolves to know about the protection if it came from within the guild, so I'm not sure if I agree. Regardless, sometimes having a Guild come out in the open is not necessarily the worst thing for the village.

 

[reis91]

Expanding further on Avernite's guild hypothesis, I prefer to have a more encompassing view of this hypothesis that the doctor and the hunted target are on the same organization to include the possibility that this organization might be associated with the Sons of the Harpy and their Masters, given that the baddie count we got strongly hints at a 2+ pack setup (probably 2).

Scanners are thus advised to not trust Chieron automatically and double-scanning him should be a priority. Doesn't have to be today but it should happen ASAP, so that a JL can be formed and start coordinating scans and using Chieron as mouthpiece.

PS: And protectors should keep him in mind too, ofc.

 

[humancalculator]

Breaking TIEs ont he other hand is something goodies should do. It's not really suspicious to break a TIE in itself. Now, if you break a TIE in favour of a baddie then it can be suspicious, but other than that then not relaly. And having a decisive vote is not really suspicious in itself.

Not sure i subscribe to this logic. If I'm a goodie that knows nothing, i want to see two to three candidates squirm near deadline since odds are very likely at least one is a baddie and someone will move to lift the TIE or create a misdirection. My assumption is basically that the odds of a TIE standing until deadline with low info is therefore low. So long as there is >10 mins left as a goodie i would consider pushing to extend the TIE between 2 candidates.

 

[EUROO7]

Jiu Jiujiu tunneling Euro for RP, quite poor performance.

I disagree!

The Breaker of Chains has emerged as our most persistent challenge. We have ways of warding off further attempts on our life.

Now is the time for Unity. We must come together as a village and be in close physical contact with one another!