The Age of Brass: A Spanish AAR

[RossN]

AvatarOfKhaine: Well she didn't, though it was close for a while there!

Viden: In English the (old fashioned) usage is to refer to countries as female. I think it sounds quite poetic honestly, though I suppose it an eccentricity.

ThaHoward: Eventually they did, though all things being equal I think it was a war both sides regret!

stnylan: Very true. I hadn't expected a sphered Mexico to be so aggressive.

Specialist290: He managed it - at great cost to his own country and other but still.

guillec87: Exactly!

Riotkiller: Well... I like your optimism!

 

[guillec87]

well.. you did win very little, if nothing... at least you have humbled the USA, but Central America remains far from ready to be reconquered

 

[Riotkiller]

A very tough war but an important victory, with the USA suffering the double whammy of having its previous good work for Arizona also undone, it's clear to see that slowly but surely Spain is becoming the premier power of the Americas!

 

[Viden]

Viden: In English the (old fashioned) usage is to refer to countries as female. I think it sounds quite poetic honestly, though I suppose it an eccentricity.

I know, I have seen it a lot of times, but as Spanish speaker it is weird to me because of course countries have gender. For example Mexico is male and Spain female.

Anyhow, excellent update as ever.

 

[Specialist290]

A hard-fought war (as most of those in this AAR tend to be), but ultimately a moment of triumph for Spain. The humbling of the United States has been hammered home, and the Spanish hegemony over the New World (and especially the Central American Isthmus) has been confirmed. The game mechanics might not support it, strictly speaking, but I could easily see the Union as a whole simply unraveling into a collection of petty North American republics -- unlike in our world, the precedent for secession has already been affirmed.

On the other hand, I imagine that there's a small but significant faction in Mexico that might feel they've been given short shrift. They may have gained Chiapas, but the Spanish have taken former American land that they still consider "theirs" and assigned it to a party that contributed nothing to the war rather than returning it to a faithful ally.

 

[Telcharinogrod]

A hard-fought war (as most of those in this AAR tend to be), but ultimately a moment of triumph for Spain. The humbling of the United States has been hammered home, and the Spanish hegemony over the New World (and especially the Central American Isthmus) has been confirmed. The game mechanics might not support it, strictly speaking, but I could easily see the Union as a whole simply unraveling into a collection of petty North American republics -- unlike in our world, the precedent for secession has already been affirmed.

On the other hand, I imagine that there's a small but significant faction in Mexico that might feel they've been given short shrift. They may have gained Chiapas, but the Spanish have taken former American land that they still consider "theirs" and assigned it to a party that contributed nothing to the war rather than returning it to a faithful ally.

I think actually that fear of the CSA and of Spanish or British domination would compel the remaining States to remain together, most likely...

 

[J_Master]

With the annexation of Chiapas done, either Spain or Mexico can start looking at the posibility of completely annexing the Guatemalan Republic once and for all. But this war raises the interesting question. The stategic importance of Central America is clear, and if Spain achieves complete dominance in the area, it is clear that it is game over for the US south of the border. Will the US just sit idly by as Spain achieves this dominance? I don't think so, and future wars will be harder fought. But once victory is achieved, it's clear that Spain will dominate.

@Specialist290 also raises an interesting point. Secession is a possibility. And with New England being dependent on trade with Great Britain, I could see a semi-dominion status for them. And with that, the next conflict becomes clear, Spain and Britain will be pitted against one another

 

[Specialist290]

I think actually that fear of the CSA and of Spanish or British domination would compel the remaining States to remain together, most likely...

Honestly I myself wouldn't go so far as to say the dissolution of the United States is a sure bet, but I think the Union at this moment is most likely experiencing a major crisis of faith in the "American experiment," and it would only take a small push to decisively tip the balance one way or another.

 

[stnylan]

I too think the United States might be in for some dire times. There is somthing especially grim about their situation that even a fragile power (as I believe Spain still is) can engineer such a humiliation. It is not that Spanish power is entirely a mirage, but there is no doubt a sense of the sleight of hand about Spanish successes. In many respects this war is a good example of how Spain ends up a victor despite some contrary evidence, as one might term it.

You know, in my head I find it very interesting to compare this AAR with @Riotkiller 's Ottoman AAR The Most Sublime Porte as both concern formerly great powers trying to find their feet in the world again, and both struggle to keep up against the more premier powers of the day but are nevertheless finding ways to hold their heads up high. (And to everyone who is a fan of the historybook AAR like @RossN excels at, I very much recommend @Riotkiller 's work as it is in much the same vein).

 

[Jaimie Wolf]

Well somehow it sounds to me as if you could've gained significantly more than you did... for the loss of more bodies of course, but they grow back usually.

Anyway, great to see Spain still packs a Punch! I tried it once and failled quite miserably.

While we're at suggestions, if one does like historybookstyle and is interessted in going far to deeply detailed into american history, try vollsmarshalls VicII Aar of the US. I find it to be quite a good read.

 

[Cora Giantkiller]

Just discovered this AAR and I am really enjoying it. Great job!

 

[Director]

If your Simon Cameron is anything like the one in our timeline, then he got paid for that peace. Perhaps he pocketed the remuneration for Arizona?

The US of post-Civil-War years would be relatively light on population and industry - so it is best that you struck when you did. Fractioning the pre-War USA into two parts further dilutes the strength of both, but does encourage them to arm.

 

[RossN]

The Congress of Madrid, October 1870.​

Chapter Twenty: The Congress of Madrid and the election of 1872

In late September 1870 representatives from the Spanish, French, Prussian [1], Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman and British governments all met at the palacio del Marqués de Grimaldi in Madrid. Over the period of two painstaking weeks the Great Powers would painfully work out the future of the Balkans and the Ottoman Empire.

That so important a conference was held in Spain at all was not due to the increased level of Spanish prestige (though clearly she enjoyed an enhanced role these days) as it was due to the fact that Madrid had few true enemies among the other European powers. The known bias of the Spanish government and monarch towards Austria-Hungary was more than balanced by the terror everyone in Spain felt about war with France; effectively Madrid could be an honest broker of sorts.

Of course during this period Spain was wrapped up in her concerns across the Atlantic [2] so the Marqués de Mendigorría played a limited direct role in the Congress, instead relying on his Minister of State Don Joaquín Roncali, the Marqués de Roncali. The Minister found himself faced by three of the most formidable statesmen in Europe: Benjamin Disraeli of the United Kingdom, Jules Farve of the French Republic and greatest of all (though it was not obvious at the time) Graf Otto von Bismarck of Prussia. The Marqués de Roncali, ever conscious that Spain held a weak hand stuck to the most conservative propositions about what to do with the Balkans. It was clear to all that the Ottoman Empire was crumbling and therefore some measure of stability would have to be imposed in the Near East. While Britain were against the proposals and the Ottoman delegate was naturally outraged the majority agreed on a general plan, albeit for their own conflicting reasons.

While there is some truth to the claim that the Ottoman Empire was sacrificed to the balance of power the irony was that Spain and Prussia were united in their attempt to save a different empire: the Russian. The loss of Congress Poland had been a lasting humiliation to a Russia already falling behind her neighbours and despite being the representative from the country that had helped cause such damage Graf Bismarck dreaded the thought of Russsia collapsing as the Ottomans were currently doing, either ending up a squabbling collection of small states or imploding into a republic as France had once done. The Prussian worked hard if discretely to allow Russia at least the appearance of a success. The Marqués de Roncali held few such long term goals even if he shared Bismarck's fear and disdain for republicanism. His desire was that Spain should emerge from the conference with her international reputation enhanced and general peace prevailing. Should Spain's ally Austria-Hungary emerge with credit that was a delightful bonus, but as with so much else dealing with Spain survival was victory enough.

Before the Congress the only true independent kingdoms in the Balkans had been Greece and Romania, with the former under British influence and the later Russian. The Principality of Serbia had enjoyed a certain limited de facto self rule. The Congress dramatically changed the situation; a greatly expanded Serbia was now fully independent, joined by Montenegro, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania. Montenegro had at least possessed a nominal prince who now found himself a true ruler, but the latter three states had been created from whole cloth in political terms and would need rulers [3].

Of the newly independent states Bosnia-Herzegovina was immediately the most problematic. This small principality existed in limbo for months before being directly absorbed into the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Earlier efforts to maintain her as a sovereign state or even unify her with Serbia had come to naught as the Great Powers squabbled. Vienna was determined to safeguard her southern frontier and swallowing the potentially troublesome 'South Slavs' of the region was considered the best practice.

European borders in 1873, after the Congress of Madrid, and the Franco-Prussian and Second Austro-Prussian Wars.
​

Unfortunately while the Congress proper was a success, wrapping up in October and forcing a reluctant but powerless Ottoman state to agree to the new borders it did not achieve a grand European peace. Within weeks Berlin and Paris would be at war.

The exact causes of the Franco-Prussian War lay with the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg. In the early 1870s this territory, though autonomous had been ruled in personal union by the Dutch monarch King William III. The Netherlands, a nation with strained finances had been in negotiations with the French Republic to sell Luxembourg. Unfortunately for both parties the Prussians objected. This was enough to scare away the Dutch government but Graf Bismarck went further. Throughout 1870, both before and after the Congress of Madrid he manipulated a potentially minor diplomatic dispute into something grander. Indeed one of the key achievements of the wily Junker in his weeks in Madrid was to convince the British that France was a far greater menace to European interests (by which of course he meant the interests of Britain) than Prussia.

Bismarck was ambitious but he was no fool. He knew that neither Disraeli, nor his liberal opponent William Gladstone would be willing to fight France purely for Prussian honour. What he could accomplish was the benign neutrality of the British government, and in this his closest ally was an unwitting French government.

The French Second Republic was not widely popular abroad. Though it was no longer quite as bellicose as she had been in the 1850s when President Lamoricière had proven the decisive hawk in the Crimean War the French were largely seen as an ambitious power. Even ignoring her military might (which no one could) the French system of government was an existential threat to most of her neighbours, all of whom were monarchies of one shade or another. It proved surprisingly easy for Bismarck to stir up anti-French feeling both at home and among foreign courts. When the conflict began late in the year France would fight without allies.

In Madrid the eruption of open warfare between France and Prussia was met with disappointment and surprise, but also the ready assumption that France would emerge triumphant in the conflict. When a separate war erupted between Berlin and Vienna in the Spring of 1871 it seemed even more likely that Prussia would remain neutral. Despite the friendship between Madrid and Vienna the Spanish were by this time far too invested in their own struggles to intervene. Ultimately the war would drag in the Kingdom of Romania (on the side of Berlin), see the shock defeat of the French and the Austro-Hungarians, the creation of a client German principality in Banat (an extremely mixed region populated by Germans, Hungarians and Slavs) and most importantly the creation of a strong centralised German Empire.

Any hopes that the Spanish voters would rally behind the government in a surge of war-time patriotism proved ill-founded.
​

The Congress of Madrid had brought great prestige to the Spanish capital, but it did not succeed in fully disguising the weariness facing the Spanish people. On one front or another Spain had spent most of the past two decades at war. Successive governments had managed, more or less to keep taxes stable but extra revenue had to be continually raised and that meant tariffs. Even in times of peace the tariff rate never dropped below 25%. During a war it could push as far north as 75%. Both the Moderates and the Unión Liberal party embraced protectionism as a way to build up native industry. The result was that wages in rural areas were relatively secure but there was limited variety to spend it on.

Spain remained a country more dominated by agriculture than industry but she was slowly modernising. In 1836 the literacy rate had stood at 13%. By 1872 it was 38%, and in the cities higher still. This new urban readership were beginning to make themselves felt with the explosive growth of the newspaper industry. The conservative La Correspondencia de España perhaps Spain's first successful modern newspaper had inspired a horde of imitators and rivals. Every political faction had at least one popular newspaper to champion its cause, frequently more.

The election of January 1872 was a tumultuous affair, fed by the changes happening abroad and at home. Queen Isabella had now held the throne for almost four decades, and had entered middle age though this had meant little change to her personality. The monarch still had her handsome favourites, still intervened in government in ways that would scarcely have occurred to her English counterpart. In some ways sheer longevity and the constant distraction of fighting foreign wars for the government had actually increased her power. It had not however increased her popularity.

Of course with Spain 'popularity' could be taken with a grain of salt. Proportionately the Spanish electorate was one of the smallest in Europe with only the ferociously conservative franchise of Russia being more restrictive among the major states. In 1872 more than sixteen million people lived in Spain 'proper' [4], of which fewer than half a million held the franchise. Belgium, with a population of somewhat over four million had twice as many eligible voters. While it is true that the onerous wealth qualifications members of the electorate had to pass made the aristocracy important, their share was itself dwarfed by the hundreds of thousands of artisans. Likewise a more liberal franchise akin to that practiced in Britain, France, Austria-Hungary and indeed the United States and Mexico would have added craftsmen and the still more numerous rural peasantry. In other words both liberals and conservatives could claim that a more representative Spain would favour them.

Still, among the electorate as it was (rather than it might have been) the Queen's popularity had clearly waned. Throughout the second half 1871 many of the Madrid and Barcelona press had been scathing of the monarch's numerous scandals. A collection of liberal leaning malcontents like Generals Juan Prim and Francisco Serrano, weary of the seemingly endless conservative lock on power, personally alienated from the Queen and seeing the straws in the wind had begun to conspire at revolution. Had Spain still not been at war with the United States it is likely they would have made their move sooner. As it was they pinned their hopes on the election and a sympathetic Cortes.

The results of the 1872 election.
​

It was a bad tempered campaign stretched across November and December 1871, with the consistently miserable weather adding to the unpleasantness - more than one deputy suffered a bad chill from the experience of speaking in public for hours in the drizzle. The government, on the defensive over the doubtful conduct of the war and the shameless conduct of the court could only wrap itself in the flag and hope that patriotism would see them through. It didn't help matters that the most popular, if controversial, figure in Iberian politics was absent from the field.

General Leopoldo O'Donnell did not leave Madrid at all during the election campaign. Indeed he scarcely left his offices or his house in all this time, abandoning even his regular evening at the gentleman's club that had been his favoured haunt. Most believed this was pure addiction to hard work - the war was growing difficult after all and Don Leopoldo was Minister for War. There was some truth this. However the main reason was even more simple; he was dying. The Spanish-Hiberian grandee had suffered from severe ill health since 1869 and only sheer will power had kept him going. Whether that willpower was bound to the Spanish Crown or his own sense of himself would depend on ones politics but as 1872 approached the old soldier was fading fast [5]. Without his influence Spanish conservativism was immediately enfeebled; the Marqués de Mendigorría was a fine leader in many respects but he was a soldier and aristocrat who felt electioneering sharply beneath his dignity.

The vote itself was on New Year's Day. Thankfully the weather was dry and cool rather than damp and cold. Most voters, whatever their political opinions were probably glad to get the business over with and most hoped for a stable result. In this like so many else they were bound to be disappointed.

The mainstream Spanish conservative parties - the hazy centre-right constellation that made up the Moderates and the more 'modern' Unión Liberal party - had lost votes and seats. Out of four hundred and three seats in the Chamber of Deputies [6] the Moderates won eighty five and the Unión Liberal won sixty seven. The Progressives - essentially the traditional royalist liberals - held fifty eight seats. The Carlists had thirty four. Most shockingly for the first time a significant republican bloc had appeared in Spanish politics. Between them the Republicano Federal and Republicano Unitaro parties (both representing 'moderate' liberal republicanism), the Socialists and the anarcho-liberal Radicals won one hundred and fifty nine seats.

Many foreign observers, particularly the Parisian press delirious over the thought of a sister state south of the Pyrenees inaccurately hailed the result as a victory for republicanism. In fact even combined the votes and seats for all Spanish republicans fell well short of the combined monarchists and the republicans were no more a natural bloc than the monarchists. Nevertheless even with all the qualifiers two out of every five Spaniards who had voted had expressed their choice for republican candidates.

Distribution of the vote in January 1872.
​

Naturally both the Queen and the government were shaken by the results. Though Isabella and the Marqués de Mendigorría were quick to renew their political marriage with the monarch retaining the general as her prime minister both sides felt angry with the other over the debacle. A polite yet grim facade would remain in place at least for the duration of the war but the government was significantly weakened, forced to depend on the support of Carlists in the Cortes to the dismay of even royalist liberals.

For the anti-Isabella faction led by Prim and Serrano the results had been bittersweet. The weakening of the government and Isabella was welcome but the plotters were themselves split between those who wanted to save the monarchy by removing the Queen in favour of another candidate and those who wished to end the monarchy altogether. In the shadows the different factions uneasily cooperated and waited their moment.


Footnotes:

[1] Strictly speaking 'Prussia' was part of the North German Confederation, but that organisation was entirely dominated by Prussia and eventually superseded by the German Empire in 1872. 'Prussia' as a term is used for convenience.

[2] The Mexican-American War had yet to break out at this point but Spain was at war in Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador.

[3] As would Cyprus. Though not covered by the Congress proper, the Cypriots used the excuse to bloodlessly break free of Ottoman rule as an independent state.

[4] That is to say modern Spain including the Canary Islands and Ceuta and Mellila.

[5] In real life O'Donnell died in exile in 1869. Hanging on to power has helped him make it a little longer but not by much.

[6] Figure includes seats for Spanish Central America whose elected deputies took seats as Progressives.

 

[RossN]

guillec87: Unfortunately true but I don't feel I'm entirely done there.

Riotkiller: Tell that to the Canadians! But yes I suppose it is true.

Viden: thank you and yes I can see how that might read strangely!

Specialist290: Mexico is certainly a troublesome 'vassal' which in many respects given they are only in my Sphere and not a Puppet is appropriate. I have no doubt they'll cause me further headaches!

stnylan: That is indeed a fine AAR and I strongly agree people should check out Riotkiller's work.

Jaimie Wolf: Another cool suggestion!

Cora Giantkiller: Thank you very much! I hope you continue to enjoy this story!

Director: Very true. I am (currently) bigger than the United States in population but they still have an industrial edge and are closer to the likely zones of conflict.

 

[Surt]

so did France and Austria lose anything, except for the Banat?

 

[Riotkiller]

That is one very fractured Cortes!

 

[Warlord Skorr]

so did France and Austria lose anything, except for the Banat?

France had to lose Alsace-Lorraine or else the German Empire could not have been formed, but according to the map I don't think anything else changed hands.

Fits Bismarck's character to take so little, I suppose.

 

[vyshan]

Down with the Monarchy up with the Republic. Hoist the red, yellow and purple tricolor!

 

[stnylan]

Well, there by for the grace of @RossN would be the Spanish Empire Clearly the Ottomans needed @Riotkiller in charge

The diplomatic sitaution is extremely precarious.

 

[HIMDogson]

Man this had better not be another France I swear to god