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birdboy2000

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Jan 27, 2007
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This AAR is the third and final part of a megacampaign that ran from CK2 -> EU4 -> Victoria 2. It converted early instead of running through the whole time frame of the earlier games, and concludes in 1900.

Part 1 concluded upon gaining an imperial title, Part 2 upon reaching 1000 Development.

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There is a chronological anomaly regarding the years from 1582 to 1836 – one less severe by year count than the issue of Emperor Kuma and the founding of Volga-Ural, but perhaps even more troubling, given the far greater documentation of the Early Modern Period. Particularly religous worshippers of the Finnic pantheon have been satisfied with the idea that they woke up after the Great Hibernation, but unsurprisingly, the scientific mind has not met this with agreement.

It is generally held that an increased interest in philology and old texts – associated with the Printing Press and the general movement that brought about Protestantism – had made even the Popes aware of a severe mathematical error made in the early middle ages, and corrected it so as to make the epoch of the Christian calendar again line up with the birth of Jesus, but this obscures as much as it reveals.

Byzantine history does not corroborate the chronological confusion of the early medieval West; in their growing fascination for antiquity, it represented to them replacement of the Birth of Christ with the Punic Wars as the dating of the epoch, and the Orthodox Church continues to use the old calendar to the present day.

Furthermore, the year of the council (in the old calendar) is unclear; some scholars hold that 1836 immediately followed 1582, and it is true that international borders were largely unchanged, although some were mildly adjusted and some smaller states consolidated. Yet the political figures of 1582 seem to have largely left the scenes, and the dramatic social changes associated with industrialization and ethnogenesis are often held to have taken at least a generation.

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Humans had long called Volga-Ural by the name of Jan Mayen, after its ruling dynasty, and even its transformation into a republic did not always remove this appellation; on the contrary, it seemed even more suitable for a state with a capital in Finland that stretched into eastern Siberia.

Maps made in 1836 in general came with a lot of renaming, and a preference for 'national' names over dynastic ones (for instance, East Francia, despite its Carolingian connections, came to be called the German Empire after the majority of its inhabitants) but Volga-Ural bucked this trend. The name of Volga-Ural had stuck since medieval times, but it would not survive into industrial ones; the international community would instead speak of the Republic of Jan Mayen.

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Printing had done much to homogenize different dialects, and the Samoyeds, Komi, and Mordvins, long the three core peoples of the state, had merged into one under polar bear rule, who came to be known as Ugrians. The distinctions between various former steppe confederations – Bolghar, Cuman, and Khazar the most notable – had rarely been appreciated by outsiders, and sedenterization and a compressed political map had done a number on those distinctions; as far as the world was concerned, they were all Tatars now. Even bears had begun to join in this process; Grizzlies, European Brown Bears, and American Black Bears all learned the growls and grunts of their polar neighbors.

Ugrians (25.5%) together with bears (a mere 12.9% after centuries of expansion) had long formed the core of the Jan Mayenese nation; the incorporation of Tatars (21%) as full citizens was a more recent development, to be traced back to the acceptance of Cumans within a polarized nation, and had the virtue of making a narrow majority of the state's population into full citizens.

Swedes (11%) and Pomeranians (5.6%, and increasingly viewing themselves as identical to northern Germans) alas, were not so lucky, and after a renaissance age of reconciliation would often come to view the bears as an oppressive tyranny; they were joined in this by Finns )3.7%) and Estonians (6.9%) for whom religious bonds (when they had not been broken outright by either Boo-Boo or the princes of Novgorod) meant far less in this modernized age, along with Russians (5.8%) and others who had always thought of the bears as foreign conquerors.

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The Great Renaming had also effected Jan Mayen's colonies; Polaris was now called Quebec after its capital, and the scattered provinces of Bruinia would be renamed the Ursine States of America.

Bears represented 75.6% of Quebec's population, rendering it by far the most homogeneously ursine country on Earth. Relatively few had migrated to the USA outside of Boston and Atlantic City, so they composed a mere 18.8% of that country; the various eastern Algonquian peoples, such as the Pequot and Mahican, that the bear lords had conquered would be an overwhelming majority of the states's population, and fully accepted therein as citizens. Both, not without cause, were still in 1836 seen as backwards countries on a backwards continent; civilization was slow to arrive to the Americas, just as in the deep interior of Africa and the steppe, and the islands of Australia and the south pacific.

The scope of Jan Mayen's colonies would expand in this period, although not the borders of the previously existing ones – the bears of the frozen lands of Nunavut would join Greenland's in embracing the empire in the 1830s. and expansion across Siberia would finally lead to the North Pacific port of Okhotsk.

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In 1836, Jan Mayen was governed by the so-called "Hoyre" movement, a politically moderate clique of bears disinterested in active intervention in commerce, trade, and religion alike – but quite interested in war. President Nanuk Teddy led the group in politics, but spent most of his time on campaign. The various divisions between the 2nd and 3rd republics had lost much of their relevance, the bears of this period being reconciled to the latter, and Hoyre was able to cement its grip on power with an iron control over patronage.

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Cavalry was no longer dominant on the battlefield, so the 19th-century wars fought over whether the Tatar people would be unified, and if so by which state, are generally not referred to as Horse and Bear wars; they were conflicts between organized states – some more backwards than others – over territory, not the ancient wars between forest peoples and pastoral nomads. Only the Mongol-Kirghiz Khanate still maintained a significant cavalry force at all in this period; the Abaids and Khazars, like the Jan Mayenese themselves, fielded overwhelmingly infantry armies. Gunpowder technology had improved to the point where using bears over humans offered no real advantages; thicker hides and larger targets more or less canceled one another out.

Jan Mayen had nothing remotely approaching a credible historical claim to rule over the Abaid Horde; propaganda made much of Abaid's medieval subjugation to the Yabguids, but the Yabguid Khanate had been partitioned, its last khans warred with bears, and Jan Mayen was in no real sense its successor state. To the international community, this war was a blatant land grab, motivated by the prospect of 200,000 new subjects speaking one of the realm's official languages, and currently governed by a small realm bereft of allies that was unable to effectively resist.

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As a matter of fact, the Abaids did resist for over a year, on the strength of the extensive fortifications around Guryev. But no foreign power came to their aid; the bears arrived eventually, the capital fell, and the Abaid Horde disappeared from the map.

Unsatisfied with this victory, President Nanuk Teddy immediately declared war on the Mongol-Kirghiz Khanate.

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Ethnic Kirghiz were the single largest component of the so-called 'Mongol' Khanate, and its khans spoke that language as well; actual Mongols were a politically powerless minority of 15% of the population. But the Chinese had referred to all nomads on their northern frontiers indistinguishably as 'Mongols', after the ethnic group closest to their borders, and there were far more Chinese in the world than Kirghiz, so the name stuck; Mongols under Kirghiz rule themselves seem to have taken pride in the name, excepting those who harbored ambitions of independence.

The horde had an alliance with the bears going back to the time of the Jan Mayen dynasty, which, from the ursine perspective, was intended to protect them from the powerful Khazar Khans – but it had twice been invoked in futile efforts to free the Kirghiz from the Chinese tributary system.

Nanuk Teddy had abrogated the alliance immediately upon taking office; the backward Kirghiz military was no longer the mighty force it once was, and he had zero interest into being dragged into a war with the mighty Chinese Empire. With no more alliance, the latent border disputes between the two states, that ever-shifting question of where steppe land ended and the northern forests began, acquired a new relevance; Jan Mayen also claimed Bakchar and the broader Tobolsk region, but declared war in the hopes of acquiring Kokshetau in Akmolinsk.

The historic Chinese hegemony over the horde also appears to have been a factor in Nanuk's decision making; although the current Khan had again asserted Kirghiz independence from China, bribes to his inner circle and most important allies were quickly changing that fact. Nanuk feared intervention should the war last too long. Again, poor Central Asian roads and a military which did not quite live up to Ursine hopes led to over a year of fighting and heavy casualties, although this was far more of a war of maneuver than its predecessor.

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But again, Jan Mayen won anyway.

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There is a curious story, usually associated with this war but occasionally with other conflicts, of a Chinese envoy who made his way to the front to issue an ultimatum, only to find that the war was already over; if he ever existed, he did not persuade the emperor to change his decision.
 
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@Specialist290 glad to still have you along!

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President Nanuk Teddy was himself a Greenlander, and saw his homeland as a key link in the circumpolar empire he dreamed of, spending much of the treasury on a planned Godthaab naval base which would link the Americas and Europe together.

His countrymen in this period increasingly disagreed.

Greenland's position in the North Atlantic had always come with a bit of ambiguity; it comprised Jan Mayen's first real overseas settlement colony, and had an overwhelmingly Polar Bear population, but soon served as a base for the founding of larger colonies in the New World – nearly all of which in this period were either already autonomous or, like formerly Irish Acadia, attempting to win it by force.

President Nanuk had viewed the Greenlandic independence movement as fringe and beneath his notice, an impression formed more by the political situation of his youth and his time in Greenlandic politics than by a clear-sighted analysis of current events; ironically, a president from the metropole would likely have likely accepted the opinions of his spies about what was coming, and seen how furious the opposition was to so much of the small and icy harbor being taken up by a new naval base.

In 1838, during the tail end of the Mongol War (and many a Greenlander griped about 'betraying old friends' in the conflict), a radical clique within the municipal administration of Godthaab struck. There was no real opposition within Greenland itself to the coup, but the weakness of Greenland's position was expressed by its initial offer to negotiate autonomous status; for all its importance to polar bear culture, for all its size, there simply were never that many Greenlanders to begin with.

It is a further irony of the Greenland Revolt that, although Jan Mayenese troops were dispatched towards the end, most of the actual fighting was done by Polar Bears from Quebec and the USA, who already had what Greenlanders wanted. This, alas, included an ironclad loyalty oath and military support among their terms of allegiance, and they did not possess any sort of pan-American political consciousness.

The legacy of the ill-fated naval base project can be seen at the bottom of Godthaab harbor – and, arguably, in the budgetary problems of 1840s Jan Mayen. But the ritually sacrificed bodies of the independence leadership's movement would soon join them.

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The election of 1840 is often given with eye-popping results that have led many to dismiss it as rigged. In reality, the 0.89% traditionally given as "Venstre" refers to legislative votes – presidents being indirectly elected – in a system where the old factions had mostly died out, but before political parties had really matured. The so-called Venstre movement could generally count on about 21% of the legislature to back its various proposals for political liberalisation, but it, along with its opponents, actually endorsed the Nanuk administration as a clique in the hopes of future patronage; in any case, their differences with the governing party were on the whole fairly mild.

What this figure meant was not overwhelming popular support – only about 8% of the population being enfranchised to begin with - but that only a single member of Jan Mayen's 112-member legislature had not endorsed President Nanuk for re-election. The no vote was cast by a bear from Godthaab (the other 3 Greenlandic representatives actually voting 'yes') as a protest against the harbor project, the failure to grant autonomy, and the postwar executions.

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Victory in Greenland, unfortunately for Jan Mayen, did not for very long mean peace. The question of steppe borders was not only violently contested by the bears; the nomads of Khazaria had their own thoughts on the topic.

There was no real question, despite the great strides made by the Jan Mayenese in integrating them into their political system, of Penza, Tambov, and Saratov not being 'rightful Khazar land'; the people living there spoke Khazar and followed the same sect of Byzantine-derived Christianity as the Khan. Said khan wanted to reverse the outcome of the final Horse and Bear war, and believed Jan Mayen was weak enough for him to do it – especially given his new Polish alliance and traditional Norwegian one.

The very fact the war had been declared sent a shock through the Ursine capital; Jan Mayen conquered land from other countries, not the other way around. Enemies might declare war on its allies, leading Jan Mayen into wars it did not choose; North American natives might attack its colonies, unaware of the size and determination of the motherland, and of course subjects might find ursine rule intolerable and rebel. But the attempted Khazar Liberation of Tataria was the first war in history in which a foreign power attacked Jan Mayen directly, a testament to the low esteem in which its army in central asia was viewed.

It would not fall.

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Jan Mayen had an old system of conscription, and the command principle proved a fine replacement for the right to bear arms; the Khazars at times destroyed isolated divisions, but the bears won every major engagement.

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The defense of Sweden was outright ignored (or perhaps left to the embattled Germans, whose own conflict with France and Byzantium likely motivated the declaration of war) and border territory even in Tataria was temporarily occupied while armies moved into position, but Khazaria simply no longer had the soldiers to sustain the conflict, and Chinese intervention (this time, curiously, on the Jan Mayenese side; the Chu Dynasty seemed to prefer bears to Khazars as neighbors) destroyed any hope of the Norwegians saving them.

Unfortunately, Jan Mayen in 1841 was no longer considered one of the world's great powers, although it had been one before and would soon be again. And the curse of minor nations in the industrial age was that they did not make the final decisions, even regarding their own wars. Nanuk Teddy undoubtably wanted to settle the border question in the other direction, absorbing the Khazar panhandle in Samara and potentially even more Khazar land; Chu dynasty negotiators, however, settled for the status quo ante bellum.

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Although Jan Mayen had preserved its territorial integrity, victory came with a heavy cost – both in soldiers and in literal funds. Much of the early 1840s would be spent repaying the severe state debt run up during the conflict, and the normally extensive funds spent on temples and educating the clergy had to be cut back, pressed both by the cost of war and mobilization and the growing, state-supported numbers of eligible priests.

Successive victories had, however, restored Jan Mayen's reputation in the international community, along with the development of a curiously influential tradition of philosophical idealism; there were no bears, no humans, only minds and illusions. Again, it was acknowledged among the world's great powers, and ursine diplomats soon got to work restoring the traditional alliances with Ireland and the Samanids and forging a new one with powerful, long-hostile Novgorod.

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The dream of a circumpolar union was not advanced during this term, northern Siberia and northwestern North America being too cold for state bureaucracies, if not for bears – but the borders continued to advance in Manitoba and the Trans-Baikal. Nanuk Teddy's 2nd term, once the Khazar War ended, was spent mostly at peace, a punitive expedition against the Assiniboine the only military action.

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Although Venstre, like Hoyre, endorsed Nanuk Teddy's re-election as a whole, many of their legislators were pressed from below by a growing movement for universal suffrage and the frustration of many of their struggling artisan constituents. Rawr Rrrrr feared a loss of re-election more than a loss of (meager) patronage, so he opted to run as an alternative candidate, scoring nearly a quarter of his loose faction's membership; which, alas, translated to a shade under 5% of the overall vote.

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Nanuk Teddy would receive a great deal of criticism in elite circles for the Samara War – not for the fact of it so much as the timing. Novgorod had a truce with the Khazars lasting until 1849, stemming from their perpetual border conflicts, but Nanuk did not believe their military assistance would be required and was too proud to wait.

Bohemia-Moravia, Volhynia and Kiev were not up to the task of distracting Khazaria's ally of Poland, which had pacts with both states going into the war (and had even benefited from Jan Mayenese assistance in conquering Silesia), but chose to side with the defender. As in the prior war, Sweden was left undefended – unlike the prior war, Germany had broken its pact with Jan Mayen, citing its claim to Ursine Pomerania, and Norwegian forces advanced all the way into Finland before they were repelled in a series of bloody, inconclusive battles by armies who marched all the way from Siberia; the capital at Oulu would likely have been sacked had the war continued for another few months.

However, the Jan Mayenese and Samanid armies were more than a match for the Khazars, and the Poles arrived too late to make much difference. The Khazar Khan was not willing to accept Norwegian and Polish protests to hold on long enough for their allies to turn the tide; with half the country occupied and much of the rest under siege, the price was too heavy to pay, and he conceded Astrakhan and most of the Samara panhandle to the bears.

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The Sultanate of Assyria, successor state of the old Abbasid Caliphate after the anarchy of Samarra, had ruled the better part of the fertile crescent for a thousand years – but not always within the exact same borders. The small sultanate of Ardalan had broken away long ago, past sultans finding that the money spent subduing the Christianized Kurds of Mahabad dwarfed any revenue to be gained from taxation, so it persisted as a small, strategically located enclave within the realm – one far too small and backwards to be a threat.

In 1849, this changed. The adventurer Ubaydallah Dilber, himself a native of Tabriz, had usurped the old sultans and begun to use Mahabad as a base to agitate for the rest of Kurdistan to become an independent state under his rule. The Kurds, viewed contempuously as backward mountain people by the 19th-century Assyrian Emperors, had none of the prestige they had won as soldiers during early Islamic times, and his program for independence found a receptive audience therein. A series of strikes, tax refusals, and army mutinies had begun to threaten Assyria's hold over its northwestern mountain territories – while Kurds living abroad took their case to the world's great powers.

This was the first of the two 'Ardalan Crises' within a 7 year span, events so similar that, had they appeared in a medieval chronicle or antiquity, they would likely be dismissed as reduplication.

Jan Mayen in this period, pressed by the difficulty of funding its own army, had based much of its foreign policy on a search for militarily powerful allies, and Assyria fit the bill. In both this incident and its 1856 successor, the bears would insist on their ally's territorial integrity, while Visigothia – recently called Spain, then Arabia, and in any case the successor of the old Ummayad state – backed the Kurds in support of a rivalry dating back to the time of Abu Muslim and the Abbasid Revolution.

But on both occasions, the Visigoths flinched from challenging the mighty Assyrian army together with their Ursine allies, and could not gather a coalition their emperors considered capable of winning them the war; the Kurds themselves, wisely fearing the consequences of defeat, did not escalate their protests into an armed revolt against an intact army.

Jan Mayen would gain a great deal of international prestige on both occasions for their role in upholding Assyrian territorial integrity; as the upholders of peace in the middle east, the bears were soon renowned as the greatest nation on Earth.

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I'm gonna be busy this weekend, updates will resume on Monday.
 
In 1853, when the truce from the Samara war expired, Nanuk Teddy believed he was in a highly favorable international situation. Not only had he added an alliance with Assyria to that with the Samanids and a number of small Eastern European polities, but the Norwegians were locked in a difficult war with Germany, which had overrun most of its territory on the European mainland and even a portion of Western Khazaria. Surely, he assumed, the 3rd Khazar War of his presidency would be easier than the first two.

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He was wrong.

Within a month of the declaration of war, Germany made peace with Norway for a broad swath of coastal East Frankish territory, granting it a land border with Jan Mayen – and worse, switched sides, declaring an immediate war on Jan Mayen for its holdings in Pomerania.

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Even Scotland jumped on the bandwagon, launching an ill-fated effort to conquer the Irish Highlands, which failed to expand its borders but succeeded in keeping Irish troops out of much of the mainland war.

These reverses in an election year were not nearly enough to shake Nanuk Teddy's iron grip over Jan Mayen's political system – but an endorsement from 92% of parliament was his worst showing yet, and at least a few previously loyal legislators saw it as an opportunity to showboat.

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A lot of attention has been paid to Germany's 1853 volte-face, and it is odd to think that a state so strongly allied with Jan Mayen for over a century would suddenly turn into one of its most bitter rivals. The reason behind it, despite odd recriminations in Parliament, were overwhelmingly based on internal German factors; the bears of this period had no territorial ambitions against German lands and seemed to have desired (but failed to win) their friendship.

But while East Francia, a post-Carolingian state, could gladly ally with a state ruling over a few odd ports on the South Baltic, Germany – a state which at least desired the incorporation of all German speakers – could not. Jan Mayenese success, ironically, further undermined the alliance, weakening Norway and its eastern ally to the point where the Germans could meet their territorial ambitions without anyone's help.

That said, much of the Norweigian army was still destroyed, and the Khazars were still no match for Jan Mayen and its allies. The bears were, however, in no shape to resist the Germans, so Nanuk Teddy made the painful decision to buy them off much the same way Norway had, trading the (thankfully, still overwhelmingly German, although about ten thousand polar bears now found themselves outside the border) province of Pomerania for the Khazar territory of Rostov.

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No state of the mid-19th century found it easy to finance warfare, and Jan Mayen under the rule of the Hoyre faction, which eschewed both tariffs and high taxes, found it harder than most. Industrialization, which was slowly beginning around the world, came late to Jan Mayen; it remained an overwhelmingly agrarian country with no factories to tax, and had a hands-off government which did nothing to kick-start industry.

During a rare period of prosperity after the comparatively cheap Samara War, Nanuk Teddy spent the national surplus building up the navy and constructing a series of naval bases, but most of his administration was spent alternatively repaying (during peacetime) and amassing (during wartime) substantial debts, although unlike Assyria it did manage to avoid bankruptcy in this period.

Neither an expanded navy (which was used more for claiming territory and transporting colonists than ferrying troops, and was in any case no match for Norway's) nor a modernized military came cheap, and Jan Mayen under Nanuk Teddy resorted to squeezing the clergy's support at the same time they were expanding their numbers in a desperate effort to run a surplus. This fact is likely what lies behind the increasingly radical scholarship of the period and the growing votes for Venstre, although none of this was capable, in the 1850s, of breaking Hoyre's grip on power.

Jan Mayen's population increased only slowly in this period, breaking the 40 million barrier after the Rostov War, but one would be forgiven for getting a different impression by looking at a map of its borders. The old Jan Mayenese dream of 'ringing the pole' became a national obsession, and polar bear colonists set out as far as Kamchatka and Alaska, while the interior of northern North America, long depopulated by the post-Columbian smallpox epidemics, would ultimately be settled in force by bears (officially 'polar' in records, in reality mostly grizzlies) over humans.

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The rise of Germany was perhaps the central phenomenon of the middle 19th century, and despite all its efforts, it was something Jan Mayen was unable to stop. Nanuk Teddy was alarmed by the rise of German power, especially after the Pomeranian War, and did his best to convince European courts that the continent's most populous state must be contained within its present borders – but the Visigothic Empire rebuffed him, still holding a grudge from the Ardalan crises, and that of Byzantium compared their pact with Germany against Bulgaria to the pact with that of Jan Mayen's earlier rulers against Norway.

A massive coalition might have contained Germany – a Germany allied with the two great powers at the corner of Europe, however, was unbeatable. Despite all the bears and greeks who died in Stavropol, the loss of Lotharinigian Nordrhein and Bulgarian Austria was, in retrospect, probably a foregone conclusion.

Worse, this was not the only foreign policy reverse Jan Mayen suffered in the late 1850s. Lacking a sufficient force of transports, it was unable to meaningfully assist the Irish attempt to conquer Scotland – which soon became the Scottish reconquest of the highlands. Pratihara aggression towards Bengal was simply ignored, the alliance outright dishonored for fear of a two-front war with Germany and China.

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Repeated defeats in Eurasia meant little in distant North America, where bears, moving southward from Canada, continued to settle the west of the continent in force. Some have sought to draw a connection between Jan Mayen's defeats and the curious tale of the Bear Flag Revolt, but it should be noted that Germany made no effort to ensure the Californians would be taken care of in the peace treaty.

The Bear Flag Revolt, along with the overland march from Nunavut and Quebec with Lotharingian aid which suppressed it, has acquired a level of fame far in excess of its geopolitical consequences; it is not entirely clear whether the governor responsible truly sought to set himself up as an independent bear-king, or simply prerfered being executed for treason later to an immediate death at the hands of a rioting indigenous mob.

Despite the flag (which is usually held to represent the viceroy himself, although some have seen it in terms of indigenous totemism, or viewed its red star as a symbol of defiance), the short-lived California Republic was not an Ursine state on the Quebec model; it was not much of an exaggeration to say that the rebel governor was "the only bear outside the woods in all of California". This was an indigenous revolt against foreign conquest and colonization, which issued its decrees in Sonoran, and whose leaders undoubtedly hoped they were too far away to conquer – ultimately, however, it floundered on the curse of California's small population.

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Of longer lasting consequence was the successful revolt of Virginia, which was alarmed by liberal advocacy (albeit unsuccessful at the time of the war) for the abolition of slavery.

No specific legislation outlawed slavery in Jan Mayen, but it was not much of an exaggeration vis-a-vis its Eurasian holdings to say the topic had simply never come up. This was not the case in the Americas, where slavery was common both among many of its indigenous peoples (including the Creek, from whom the USA's southernmost territories had been conquered) and among the colonial powers, all of whom had made extensive use of forced recruitment and forced labor to settle their sparsely populated holdings.

Some autonomous colonial states – most notably the Visigothic Dominican Republic, where a majority of people were of African descent, but also Quebec, Mexico, and Buenos Aires, where the institution was always far more marginal – had already abolished slavery, and a group of wealthy plantation owners in Virginia feared the USA would soon do likewise.

After winning control of the state government, the clique set up a dictatorship based around the defense of property rights (of which the most important, by far, was slave ownership) and declared itself the "Confederate States of America", which spoke to its ambition, if not its capacity, to conquer a broad swath of the continent's southeast; Jan Mayen, stretched far by events elsewhere, did not retaliate.

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The election of 1863 was also lopsided, and none of the reverses of the past term were enough to shake Nanuk Teddy's grip on power, having thoroughly converted the dominant Hoyre clique by this point into a vehicle for his personal rule. But it was lopsided in numbers that could be mistaken for those of a modern parliamentary state, not lopsided in numbers which immediately suggested a rigged election. Constituencies in the Teddy Era were admittedly gerrymandered, and voting was done openly, not by secret ballot. But opposition parties were legal and openly campaigned, and the vote totals reported accurately reflected the ones submitted.

The catalyst behind this decline in support, however, was not Venstre (which continued to endorse him as a bloc, although the same MPs as last time voted no) but in the rise of the Strid Partiet under Isbjorn Brown, high priest of Perm. It is a massive oversimplication to say that Strid's voters were entirely priests, although the clergy of this period made up a strikingly similar proportion of the electorate; struggling railroad owners appreciated its promise of state support for industry, artisans desired high tariffs to protect their wares, and the pious from all walks of life sought a return to the religious policies of Boo-Boo Rrrrr, based around extensive missionary efforts and heavy funding of temples (albeit not, for all they idolized him, any talk of the end of the world.)

That said, its elected representatives most certainly were from the clergy; for all that secular defeats had caused many to lose faith in Nanuk Teddy, Strid was fundamentally a religious movement, and joining it meant joining a temple that endorsed it and advocating that the gods no longer be neglected in this modern, scientific age.

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The Bryansk War was not, on the whole, particularly different from the prior Jan Mayenese-Khazar conflicts of the 19th century, with two exceptions: Novgorod actually started it, and Jan Mayen was able to win with no need for conscription, but only the regular standing army – although the cost of supplying it, like in prior wars, was beyond the financial capacity of the state. Outside of Bryansk and (now Jan Mayenese) Luhansk, where the war obviously had regional importance, the war is remembered, if at all, as the backdrop of the legendary Nanuk Teddy's last battle.

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On January 6th, 1865, Nanuk Teddy died in office after 29 years as President of the Republic of Jan Mayen. He was 79.

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Nanuk Teddy's death was popularly attributed, especially by the human population, to a mummy's curse; Jan Mayenese archaeologists had led the way in excavating ancient Egyptian tombs, and bears poring over the most ancient of human civilizations was widely viewed as a horrendous sacrilege; more than a few humans, especially those who did not speak Tatar or Ugrian, believed he got what he deserved.

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This reaction, however, was not severe enough for a new administration to end scientific collaboration with Egypt; the mapping of the source of the Nile River by Ursine explorers in 1870 greatly increased the country's already high level of international prestige.

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Grrowr Bjorn would take over as head of Hoyre after a lavish state funeral, but lacked the political talent of his predecessor, and ruled over an empire coming under increasing strain from below. Perhaps Nanuk could have defused the growing dissent from those excluded from the 3rd Republic's political system – in which a mere 10% of the population voted, many of them underfunded clergy or struggling artisans frightened of falling below the property requirements, and a little over a third of the electorate viewing the ursine government as illegitimate foreigners. Or perhaps this was an inevitable side effect of growing literacy and the mobilization of so much of the population into the military, and there was simply nothing anyone else in its leadership could do.

It is notable that, when the moment came, Venstre and Strid went along with it quietly. No one plotted against Grrowr's life, no polemics accused him of treason against the republic.

Strictly speaking, the Law of 1866 was simply an ordinary law passed by a simple majority of the parliament, Hoyre's moderates (led by Grrowr himself) joining with Venstre to 'reform' the franchise, and it did not even actually apply until the 1867 election. And yet the Fourth Jan Mayenese Republic is generally traced from this date, for the extra votes given to the former electorate, a sop to the old elites and their passionate arguments for an 'assembly of notables', could do little against the far greater numbers of the masses. (Indeed, the confusing and administratively complex extra vote system would be abolished outright in 1871, for a president elected by universal suffrage had no interest in diluting the number of his own voters in an election year.)

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Grrowr did lead the Hoyre clique into said election, but struggled to adapt an elitist clique to the campaigning of mass politics. In any case, the common people knew full well what Hoyre rule meant, and Nanuk Teddy's force of personality had been most of what held it together even at the top.

Venstre's hopes were high going into the election, but the movement long based in the middle class, for all it had done to win the people the right to vote, had little different than Hoyre to offer them. Strid, with its reach to the common people through the temples and its promise of rapid industrialization, won the 1867 election in a landslide victory.

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True to its campaign promises, the Strid Partiet repaid the national debt, opened the clergy to all who sought to enter it, lavished funding on temples and priestly salaries, and finally, rapidly began the Jan Mayenese industrial revolution. Bears who had long tapped trees for honey learned to chop them into timber, to let berries ferment into liquor, and to catch extra fish and place them into cans; it would be humans, however, who generally handled the tasks of converting that timber into furniture or baking coal into steel, as bears lack the requisite manual dexterity.

The fact that this would be funded by vastly higher taxes along with tariffs, however, had been considerably less emphasized: a transfer of power did little to stem the broader sense of public unrest, which was increasingly met, outside of the country's core lands, with increasing popular support for separatist movements.

Jan Mayen abrogated its alliance with the doomed state of Lotharingia, a casualty of French and German ambitions in an increasingly nationalistic age. It offered its traditional ally of Assyria its full military support in the 3rd Ardalan Crisis, but faced with French, Visigothic, Byzantine, and even Japanese support for Kurdish ambitions, the caliph reluctantly conceded the province of Azerbaijan.

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Setbacks facing its allies, however, did not touch Jan Mayen's own borders, and President Isbjorn Brown enthusiastically honored his alliance with Novgorod in its war with Poland over Lietuva; its allies of Bulgaria and Khazaria could not protect it from the increasingly mighty Jan Mayenese army.
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Again Jan Mayen expanded its borders at Khazar expense, this time seizing Cherson, while overseas the bears finished the colonization of North America's interior (excepting still-frozen Yukon – the local polar bears, ironically, being curiously reluctant to embrace what grizzlies and black bears had long accepted) and stretched as far south as Durango in northern Mexico.

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The election of 1872 saw a landslide re-election for Isbjorn Brown, although the near-identical figure actually obscures a modest decline in support, likely in opposition to Strid's tax hikes; the abolition of the extra vote system, combined with the party's lower-class base, suggests that the '82%' of the vote recieved by Strid in both elections was not actually identical, and the 1867 victory was even greater.

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More shocking at the time was the outright collapse in Hoyre's vote. It no longer controlled access to patronage, and its leaders after Nanuk Teddy failed to articulate any real alternative vision for the country. Its voters deserted it outright and its few remaining legislators, save for one stubborn independent, merged into Venstre, which would supplant it as the country's primary opposition party.
 
Although Jan Mayen had, in the mid-19th century, colonized much of North America, this did not mean that it could necessarily count on the loyalty of the people and bears living therein. Settlers found a weak bureaucracy, a vast wilderness and little central government support; outside of Greenland and the client states on the continent's northeast coast, the inhabitants were ruled over by unaccountable governors, some of whom were better than others.

Strid Partiet rule and the rise of universal suffrage had initially led to hope in that region, but its low population supported little in the way of industrial development, and (outside of California) were viewed as at most an afterthought by Isbjorn Brown.

The Nicaraguan and Alaskan revolts, although often grouped together, were (fortunately for Jan Mayen) not simultaneous, although both had similar causes. Nicaragua was an indigenous revolt not long after colonization the Californian model, the main distinction being that this province's governor was executed by the rebels, and the Nicaraguans did not place a bear on their flag. Troops were dispatched directly from Europe to suppress it, and it became an occasion to increase the size of the transport fleet, for the many independent states of Mesoamerica separated Nicaragua from the rest of Jan Mayenese North America.

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Alaska, on the other hand, was far more damning; the greatest rising of Polar Bears since Greenland in 1838, if not the greatest altogether. Colonized decades ago, it shared a great deal with Chukotka and eastern Siberia, which Isbjorn Brown actually feared would embrace the Alaskan rebellion, and the Alaskans had a great deal of sympathy from Venstre. It did not, however, have the population base to actually defend its independence, although its vast size and distance from anywhere relevant meant the rebellion took nearly two years to quell.

As a rule, Strid under Isbjorn Brown (and, for that matter, other Jan Mayen central governments) responded to these rebellions with full incorporation of the rebellious provinces in addition to executions of the leadership – it could not, however, protect still-loyal provinces such as Alberta from bureaucratic neglect.

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Although Jan Mayen in this period boasted a great deal of international prestige, and under Strid rule a burgeoning industrial sector, its vast and dispersed population did not have the military strength to dictate events in Eurasia. Kurdish protests had become a cause celebre in France and won the support of China, and no amount of Jan Mayenese support could preserve Assyrian control of Luristan (and, frustrated with a temporary breach in their traditional alliance, it did not even try in Tabriz), nor was any effort was made to contest the German expansion of the period which soon rendered it by far the world's most populous state. Isbjorn Brown would content himself with annexing far more actual territory, although most of it was cold and empty.

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The election of 1876 marked a titanic political shift, one rendered all the more surprising by, unlike prior shifts of this magnitude, occurring under the same electorate as its predecessor.

In a real sense, Strid was a victim of its own success; the industries it had so aggressively cultivated did not becoming state enterprises, but were turned over to local magnates, a mixture of puffed-up artisans and former aristocrats. They were not selected by any sort of political process, nor were they necessarily pious temple-goers or even worshippers of Ukko and Otso at all. None wished to turn back the clock to the agrarian era that had lasted into the 1860s, and all accepted that Strid had done a great job at industrializing and enriching the country – they merely believed that, now that factories spanned the arctic, the state should return to its traditional role, reduce taxes to traditional levels, and stay out of their way.

Bjorn Sun, who (as the name suggests) was a sun bear, was in most other respects a typical representative of this class. He had immigrated to Samara, where he owned a glass factory and shares of the local railroads, from the eastern jungles of Jan Mayen's ally of Bengal. He had voted for Venstre in 1872, but split with it over religion; he honored India's native gods as well as the Finnic pantheon, and Venstre's emphasis on embracing the state religion, especially the cult of Otso, increasingly struck him as Strid-lite.

Instead, with a few friends, he took over the local Hoyre branch, the two remaining members apparently too surprised that anyone had expressed interest to realize in time that they had been outvoted.

Bjorn Sun's Hoyer matched that of Nanuk Teddy in name only; it was a mass party, rooted in horizontal patronage between industrialists and their employees, who often spread the word of the new party to their more rural friends and family. They made an emphasis on religious tolerance and pluralism (along with tax cuts) a defining campaign issue; Isbjorn Brown famously attacked Sun as an atheist, a fact which won this sectarian no favors, while Sun Bjorn, in a rare attack that backfired, mocked Boo-Boo Rrrrr's predictions of the Great Hibernation.

A Venstre candidate actually won 28.6% of the vote, a massive increase over its previous high, but they once again met election day with bitter disappointment – while Strid support collapsed to a shade over 9%, a number consistent with winning over only clergy and lay members of Strid temples. With 62.24% of the vote, Bjorn Sun was sworn in as president of the Republic of Jan Mayen – albeit the one with the smallest mandate in its modern history. (although, of course, some Grand Princes seem to have been even less popular.)

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True to his pre-election pledge, Bjorn Sun was able to slash taxes without destroying the country's industrial base through the abolition of subsidies (save in some remote and unprofitable areas, most famously Yakutsk), and ran a hefty surplus by underfunding clergy in wartime and soldiers in peacetime; the coming of the railroad, usually under private ownership, is perhaps the most enduring symbol of his administration.

He seems to have even feared the international reaction from taking more Khazar territory, opting to settle for Novgorod's gains from Poland in the 2nd Novgorod-Polish War.

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He could, however, brag about being the president to finally ring the pole, although most of the important work towards that end had been accomplished in Isbjorn Brown's term.

(By some definitions, the existence of Norway, Assiniboine's ports on Hudson Bay, or even Irish Labrador meant that ringing the pole had not been completed – but as virtually Jan Mayen's entire political class preferred expanding at Khazar expense to risking international opprobrium over more troublesome lands, they would define the concept as control of the world's northernmost lands, and not of every port on the Arctic Ocean.)

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Jan Mayen had been at peace with the Mongol-Kirghiz Khans for over 40 years, since the war of Akmolinsk, but it had not dropped its claim to Tobolsk – merely refused to act on it as the Khanate came over increasing Chinese influence. Bjorn Sun, however, desired military glory, and panda spies had revealed poor relations between China and their client state, along with the lack of a formal alliance between the two.

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Perhaps with machine guns, Bjorn Sun would have even defeated China – but the Chu emperor never tested this, and the Mongolians soon conceded Tobolsk.

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Costa Rica soon went the way of Nicaragua; although Bjorn Sun had been able to extend ordinary administration to most of Siberia, North America remained an afterthought. Lacking size, an extensive army, or fortifications, the rebellion was easily crushed, Jan Mayen's enlarged fleet proving more than up to the task.

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One might imagine these victories as the actions of a successful ruler, and historians to this day have a generally favorable impression of Bjorn Sun – voters, however, seem not to have agreed. A passionate and bitterly sectarian Strid campaign, rooted largely in unemployed factory workers for whom business fluctuations meant destitution, denounced him as a heretic, a Crypto-Hindu – and Venstre opportunistically echoed these smears. It should also be noted that Bjorn Sun's pluralistic religious views were not actually all that widely held among the general public, and that Hoyre's victory in the last election had stuck many prognosticators as a shock; the party does not seem to have had all that deep support in the first place, and many of the businessmen who had built it returned to Venstre for the 1881 campaign.

Officially, Bjorn Sun's resurrected Hoyre won about 30% of the vote, Nanuk Bera's Venstre nearly 65%, and only 5% went to Strid (these wild swings, of course, reflecting constituencies won; individual votes being far closer), and Sun acknowledged the results, congratulated Nanuk Bera on his election, and retired from the presidency.

And roughly a hundred thousand Strid voters cried 'fraud'.

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The election and civil war of 1881 remains one of the most controversial topics in Jan Mayenese history, and there are considerable unsolved questions about the role of both living ex-presidents in the conflict; what position one takes on it, to this day, often has more to do with political affiliation than any sober analysis of the facts.

Bjorn Sun was himself a former Venstre bear and had no real love for Strid, but this is not the same thing as rigging an election, and it would be quite remarkable to rig it without doing so in one's own favor. Isbjorn Brown, who maintained his role as a religious leader despite being nine years removed from active politics, did reluctantly stand as Strid's presidential candidate, and waited to condemn the riots until it became clear they would not succeed – nonetheless, his denunciations (and perhaps fear of a repeat) were enough to keep the Strid temples open.

It is doubtful, in retrospect, that Strid actually won the election of 1881, although the broad support for their revolt suggests that they may have considerably outperformed their official numbers. Members of all parties exerted what social pressures they could to vote a particular way in a manner which people today would denounce as cheating, and neither the redrawing of constituencies nor outright fraud was unheard of.

The industrial sector (and therefore Venstre or Hoyre supporters in the business class) for all the attention it recieves today as a harbinger of what was to come, was not actually a very large proportion of the economy in 1881; Bears and people living on rural lands owned by Strid temples probably outnumbered factory workers.

But understanding this incident as a clash of elite personalities, as socialists correctly note, is missing the point. This was not a mad ex-president crying 'fraud' to justify a coup, but predominately a movement of landless tenant farmers, many of them dependent on Strid-affiliated temples for their sustenance, in an era when technology had stripped many a forest bare of food.

Jan Mayen was a massive country, and it was easy for a landless bear who prayed at a Strid temple to believe his views far more popular than they actually were – and easier still for a desperate bear to join a rebellion against 'fraud'.

They were not industrial workers yet, although many of the survivors would have no alternative but to assume that role later in life. The radical expropriations of the so-called "Astrakhan Utopia" reflected less an organized program for revolution than it did hunger and bitterness at the local industrialists, who were firm backers of Venstre.

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It was the largest rebellion by population in Jan Mayen's history up to this point (although the Stockholm Rising probably surpassed it proportionately) and the first in Eurasia since the early modern period. But it was doomed. Later generations, both on the left and in Strid temples, have celebrated the skirmishes won against unpaid soldiers in Yaroslavl and Chistopol, along with the Astrakhan Utopia itself. But Jan Mayen's army had conquered Astrakhan only a couple decades earlier, and this time around it had fewer men in arms.

Last-ditch appeals for international aid fell on deaf ears, and the Volga Delta ran red with blood as officers and (properly paid) soldiers vented their rage upon a despised underclass who they viewed as little more than beggars with guns; the Astrakhan martyrs, however, would not be forgotten.

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The bloodshed of their victory had cast a pall on the celebration that Venstre might have otherwise have enjoyed; after 44 years of defeats, they would finally have the opportunity to wield power. Apart from the politicians themselves, Swedes, Estonians, and other humans who did not speak Ugrian or Tatar had the most reason to celebrate – bears still ran the country, but these were bears who treated all humans as subjects instead of favoring immigrants from the east and the steppe.

Nanuk Bera, like his predecessors, desired territorial expansion to put his stamp on Jan Mayen – but when he aided his Novgorodian ally in another of its many Polish wars, he met resistance from an electorate which desired peace, and therefore settled, despite the destruction of the Khazar army, for expanding Novgorod and Turov at Polish expense.

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War in Central America would also come to Nanuk Bera despite his desiring otherwise; Hondurans would revolt in the manner of Costa Ricans and Nicaraguans before them, and more disturbingly, a number of Nicaraguans would rise up without the support of either local authorities or the viceroy; their struggle was doomed, but it punctured any illusions that a single victory represented a permanent settlement.

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Kiche would rebel against the influence of Jan Mayenese merchants over their economy not long after; alas, Venstre did not have the sort of economic policy that could end the regional economic downturn, but it did have a garrison in the area capable of applying more than sufficient military force.

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Even in Guryev, a small number of malcontents continued the legacy of steppe unrest forged in the Strid rebellion, attempting to carve out an independent Khanate; however, the foreign support they hoped for was not forthcoming, and a far smaller number actually turned out for the rebellion than the Kazakh underground had hoped.

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It is not entirely clear why Venstre rule, which differed little from Hoyre's on the economy, was so passionately challenged – but the sense that Nanuk Bera was not a legitimate president had clearly spread way beyond the circles where it originated, and the destruction of the Strid Rebellion seems to have given some minorities a sense that, for all Venstre's efforts to grant them equality, they had no future in the Ursine state.

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A Slovak uprising in Transdanubia split the long-allied states of Germany and Byzantium; the former, which claimed much of Bulgaria, saw it as a chance to weaken its enemy, while the latter feared that a Slovakia that had already enlarged itself at one greater country's expense would stir up Slavic peoples in Karnten, which it bordered. France and Jan Mayen chose the Slovak side in the hopes that they could at last contain Germany, Italy the Bulgarian side out of their longstanding rivalry with Byzantium and a still-extent claim to Dalmatia.

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The War of the Slovak Crisis would last for two and a half years, bring Nanuk Bera to reintroduce conscription for the first time in 30 years, and see ursine troops march as far south and west as Bavaria and the Adriatic Sea. It would reintroduce Jan Mayen to central European politics, bears fighting beside Byzantines and in alliance with Frenchmen against Bulgarians, Italians, and Germans.

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It would not, however, lead the Jan Mayenese (or the French, for that matter) to any territorial gains. Poland and Khazaria still served as buffer states between Jan Mayen and Germany and Bulgaria, respectively, so the bears had to take the long route across the Black Sea and Anatolia, many of them struggling to find sufficient forage along the way – and Byzantine authorities could do little to stop hungry bears from robbing Anatolian peasants of their livestock for food.

Perhaps the behavior of the bears marching through Byzantium is why the Byzantine Emperor ended the war so early, in a move routinely described in ursine sources as a 'betrayal' – then again, it was always a bit unrealistic to expect him to prolong the war over Pomerania when he had so many disputes closer to home. And although the bears were temporary allies, they could in no sense be described as traditional friends.

In addition to the Slovak victory, the Byzantines would reclaim Istria from the Italians. Germany had lost many soldiers, a key ally in Byzantium, and failed to get its way on a major European question for the first time in its modern history (prior failures having come under the name 'East Francia'.) Although it retained Pomerania and Alsace, the experience of the war had given policymakers in both France and Jan Mayen ideas...

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Perhaps Novgorod, strangely enough, was the war's biggest victor; the territory of Kursk, split between Tatars and Russians, had long been eyed by Jan Mayenese with interest, and Novgorod's princes knew full well they would not receive Ursine assistance in seizing it. Under ordinary circumstances, the prospect of Bulgarian intervention would have stayed their hands; with Bulgaria already occupied, Novgorod's expansionist grad princes could confidently take on the Khazars and Poles alone.

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Indeed, the long-term damage to Germany and Bulgaria, and benefit to Novgorod, may have been even greater, for not only was Wielkepolskie, old core of the Polish state, liberated in 1889, but the Novgorodians went on to seize Silesia in 1890, with no Ursine help (not feeling they needed it) and in the face of German opposition.

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The election of 1885, held in the early stages of the Slovak War, was taken by Hoyre as a referendum on Venstre's foreign policy, and by Strid as an opportunity to re-litigate the civil conflicts of the last five years. The description of the Astrakhan Utopia as 'a simple experiment in alternative municipal governance' convinced no one, but the degree to which Venstre had chosen bullets over negotiations, or killed innocent people in the process, distressed many as much as Strid's turn to extra-constitutional politics; moderates distressed with both formed Hoyre's primary base, and protected it from repeating the collapse of the 1872 election.

Strid would lead the opposition with a quarter of the vote, and Hoyre would add another 18%; Nanuk Bera would indeed be re-elected, but with the thinnest (official) mandate seen in modern* Jan Mayenese history.

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*Shamir Gyp almost certainly won a lower proportion of voters within the estates, and Viryas Qoi and Boo-Boo Rrrr may have done so as well, but it is hard to correlate 16th-century elections under estates of notables with those under a modern system of universal suffrage.
 
The so-called Indian or North American Wars are usually taken to be a 16th century phenomenon, but the restraint which characterized relationships between bears and North Americans had been a Jan Mayenese policy not always appreciated by the settlers on the ground. Independent Virginia, bolstered by wealthy immigrants from both Eurasia and the Americas who often brought their slaves with them, intended in the 1880s to make good on its claim to represent a 'Confederate States of America', a slaveholding rival to the Ursine States of the north.

Indigenous states in the Americas, as a rule, had not attracted the population numbers necessary to compete with settler colonialism; many were reluctant or too backwards to attract immigrants, and smallpox often decimated the indigenous population, although tiny Ichma in Peru with its gold mine was a notable exception.

The 1st Iroquois War gave little cause for complaint, even in Oulu; qualms about slave-raiding (slavery still, despite Confederate fears, being legal in the Ursine States) were more than assuaged by the Ursine states absorbing Pennsylvania as a Virginian gift without firing a shot. The Creek war reflected a shift in the balance of power, but Virginia remained the size of Pennsylvania – one of the larger Ursine states, but still one which might theoretically get over its old dispute and rejoin the US (or be absorbed directly by Jan Mayen, for that matter) someday.

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The Coweta War was different. It meant crossing the Appalachians and defeating the major North American confederations of the southwest. It meant adding a 2nd state to the so-called "Confederate States of America." And it seems to have genuinely frightened Nanuk Bera, who had come to see it as that most intolerable phenomenon; a rival power in North America.

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Such a challenge could only be met with war.

A governor was appointed to the 'rebel province of Virginia', and Nanuk Bera dispatched fleets to Quebec and the Ursine states to enforce his appointment – whatever the cost. And the cost, when dealing with a nation of nearly 10 million people, would indeed be severe – paid mostly by Americans, in massive battles over a tiny front line. Although to be fair, only a third of Jan Mayen's own expeditionary force survived, sailing back to quell yet another uprising in Nicaragua.

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The Election of 1890 was most notable for the formation of a party, the Arbeiderparti, which did not actually win a single seat. A breakaway faction of the Strid movement which explicitly advocated the policies of the Astrakhan Utopia, which Strid had justified for reasons of military necessity, it had grown frustrated with both the timidity of the party's religious leadership and with Venstre's frequent, bloody wars.

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The Arbeider's trade unionist leadership hoped to chip away at Venstre's new base by recruiting among ethnic and religious minorities, who were often not actually the same people; Swedes, Finns and Estonians frequently paid heed to Boo-Boo Rrrrr's reformed Finnic pantheon, while Orthodox Christianity and Tengri worship were both common among the Tatars.

Strid polemicists sought to maintain their voters by accusing this new movement of impiety and atheism, a charge which dovetailed quite well with the movement's materialist arguments against elite rule; many Arbeiders even attacked the traditional privileges of the temples as the feud grew increasingly bitter.

The infighting and vote-splitting took its toll on Strid; Nanuk Bera became the first president since his namesake, Nanuk Teddy, to win a 3rd term, and did so with over 70% of the state vote - and this despite a new law ending the custom of governing parties redrawing consituencies, which had done much to cement prior governing party majorities - while Hoyre took over the mantle of opposition with 20%.

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The rise of Germany had distressed the Polar Bears since the betrayal of 1853 and the first Pomeranian War, but at the time, there was nothing they could do to prevent the Germans from supplanting them as the world's strongest nation.

In 1892, when the Slovak War's truce expired, this was no longer the case. Far from being a mighty power, Germany had looked astonishingly weak in the face of bears with machine guns, its military modernization evidently having lagged far behind the polar bears, and even somewhat behind the French. Only the fact of its renewed Byzantine alliance, and the narrow overland front through Germany's ally of Bohemia, gave Nanuk Bera the slightest pause before declaring war – but he was a brave bear, and the prospect of reversing his namesake's one defeat was worth the gamble.

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Germany's military decline had reached the point that its Visigoth ally would actually lead the alliance, and the opportunity to reverse the borders was tempting enough for some of those other countries who had lost territory in the process of East Francia becoming Germany to join in. Wallonia – a renamed Lotharingian kingdom that had long since lost most of its non-Walloon holdings – joined mid-war and did a heroic job against the brunt of the German offensive, but was defeated too quickly and thoroughly to see any territorial gains, while France declared its own separate war.

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The Byzantines shed control of their eastern territory to the Samanids and Jan Mayen itself, while bears marched through Bohemia (whose repeated requests for peace were ignored) to plunder Saxony and Brandenburg.

In the Americas, Jan Mayen's mighty western empire came under threat from Visigothic holdings in Texas, which marched as far as Colorado and Wyoming, and represented the only ursine territory occupied by enemies throughout the entirety of the war; Nanuk Bera actually feared the consequences of a prolonged offensive, for despite his successes in Eurasia he could not guarantee that private capital would re-invest in North America should the economy suffer as the result of a sustained occupation, and he lacked the support in the legislature for state intervention.

Perhaps this explains his decision to accept peace for the return of Pomerania (or the 'conquest' if one prefers – the whole region was transferred, not just the former Swedish ports that Jan Mayen had actually ruled, cities and towns where some polar bears still lived under German sovereignty) and not press for further territorial gains – or perhaps it was a response to the growing popularity of the Arbedeir movement, whose calls for peace and social reform had grown increasingly loud and led Nanuk to begin to fear that he might actually lose the next election. He would settle for the absorption of 1.14 million Pomeranians (around 7000 of them polar bears) and perhaps the most industrialized region on Earth; France would make peace soon after, acquiring both the Franche-Comte and much of Visigoth Septimania.

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In any event, peace, tax cuts (Nanuk finding tariff revenues more than sufficient) and a very divided opposition blunted any such fears; Venstre's 4th successive term may have represented the entry of Arbeiderparti members downballot into parliament, or victories at the state level with reduced pluralities, but it also represented a landslide on a scale not seen since the days before universal suffrage, with an 84% mark that passed even Strid's victories – one would have to go back to Nanuk Teddy 40 years ago to find a similarly lopsided election.

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It is hard to know exactly what to make of the Deseret movement, which, unlike prior North American revolts, came during a period of peace and integration into the Jan Mayenese state – integration that admittedly had not yet touched the remote mining camps of Nevada-Utah, but which was surely not too far off. The local Strid temple had begun preaching a bizarre millennarian doctrine, asserting that the Great Hibernation would soon come and that only the righteous few would remain awake for it – the miners withheld taxes, stockpiled food and arms, and assured the authorities they were only saving up for the dark days ahead.

If dark days did come, however, it was less the result of apocalypse than of state repression; the Desertians found and expected no foreign allies, but seized control of local administration when their movement was outlawed, and armies from across the continent were required to suppress it by force and set up a true government in the mining camps.

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Some have considered the Deseret rising a precursor to the far more devastating Jacobin and Radical rebellions, but the two were ideologically opposed, and the pan-Scandinavian movement's raids into Sweden from Copenhagen were a far more likely spark for the latter.

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It is not entirely clear why the Ursine Jacobins chose to rise up against a Venstre government; many of them had voted for Nanuk Bera in the prior election, but apparently believed that he in some way had betrayed the principles of the movement – Grrrgrrr Bjornsson, their leader, had served in multiple cabinets and was clearly motivated by frustrated political ambitions. Many of its members have been denounced as crypto-radicals, which may have been true, but does not explain why (apart, perhaps, for desperation) they did not simply join the far larger Radical rising of 1897; insofar as they had any political program at all, apart from making Grrrgrrr president, it seemed to be the denunciation of universal suffrage as 'Stridism' and a return to the extra vote system of 1867.

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Although overshadowed by its successor, it was at the time the largest rebellion since the Strid uprising of 1881, and was rendered all the more dangerous by its proximity to the capital. Had Grrrgrrr outlined a more compelling alternative and convinced the local garrisons to switch sides, it had a realistic possibility of success, albeit (given its highly regional support) more as a coup d'etat than a revolution.

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Nanuk Bera evidently did not feel comfortable executing Grrrgrrr, despite the fate doled out to previous traitors; he was pardoned on the basis of past service to the state, and would serve as a surprisingly loyal general in the events to come.

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Founded in 1895, Jan Mayen's Radical movement, like that of its forebears in Greenland and Virginia and its chief ideologues from Ryazan (who notably wrote in Russian, not Tatar or Ugrian) rejected democracy from its inception; it is worth noting that, despite broad regional support which would surely have made it at least competitive in some states, and likely victorious on the local level in at least Gotaland and quite possibly Latvia and Novgorod, it did not bother to contest a single election before taking up arms.

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The radical movement, which at its height ruled the southern half of Sweden, Latvia, Novgorod, Yakutsk, and even Durango in Mexico (despite its extreme unpopularity in the rest of the New World) was most popular among ethnic minorities for whom the rise of Venstre had represented an incomplete revolution.

Although commonly associated by later polemicists with its capitalist financiers, the 550,000 men and bears it mobilized mostly represented the poorest strata, who blamed taxes and especially tariffs for their penury and considered a retreat of the state to its traditional, hands-off role to be their path to a better life; when it took over territory, Radical governments were mostly distinguished by a lack of tax collection and the suppression of trade unions as anathema to the functioning of the free market.

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Conscription was practiced by both sides of the civil war, and Nanuk Bera introduced it with considerable trepidation; he could not guarantee that the farmers, loggers, and miners he would need to rely on would not turn their guns on his own beleaguered administration, but he also could not guarantee that the regular army, isolated in Pomerania, could reach the rest of the country before it was too late. In the end, despite a couple mutinies in notoriously rebellious Sweden, the Tatar, Ursine, and Ugrian majority dwarfed the collection of minorities who had taken up arms, and most Venstre voters joined with their defeated opponents in loyalty to the 4th Jan Mayen Republic.

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The war would have inevitably been incredibly bloody, if only because of the numbers mobilized on both sides – but it was sadly not only those bearing arms among the dead. Tax collectors were routinely executed in rebel territory, prominent radicals in Finland and Bearland often shot by angry mobs, and the war devolved in Yakutsk into mutual pogroms (nearby West Yakutsk, ironically, paying host to that rarest case of a sizable number of bears fighting for the rebels) – however, once the conscripts proved loyal, the outcome was no longer seriously in doubt. The last battles occurred in the Faroe Islands and Iceland, where isolation and small numbers had not squelched the passion and violence of their politics; ships long stationed in the new world and a portion of the army of Pomerania combined to put them down.
 
Ever since the conclusion of the Slovak crisis, the prospect of a more decisive, greater war frightened the hearts of Earth's great powers; the next struggle between the German-Byzantine and Jan Mayen-France pacts would surely make the victor unstoppable.

As any schoolboy knows, this happened in 1898; as far fewer know, it nearly happened over Korea. The so-called "North Korea crisis" saw Koreans in that country's far north, under Chinese rule, seek reunification with their increasingly assertive bretheren, with the backing of both Pratihara and Japan, which sought to undermine China's traditional hegemony in the region and form a foundation of an Asia which, like Europe, was based on truly independent states (Asian ideologues often underestimated the influence of Italy, Germany, and Jan Mayen on weaker powers.)

This much is well-known to historians of Asia, and often bemoaned as reflecting the limits of Japanese power. It is less widely appreciated, however, that both sides canvassed Europe for support in the hopes of guaranteeing a favorable the outcome – but both Jan Mayen and France backed China, and the Koreans needed the foreign support far more.

Japan's shogun continued to threaten war on Korea's behalf for a period of months, in which was equal parts bluff and a desperate effort to find a way out of this situation without threatening his own grip on power. When faced with the increasingly real prospect of an actual war which Japan would surely lose, however, the emperor forced him to back down and resign his position as penance.

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The region of Brittany had entered the 19th century divided between Lotharingia and Germany, the product of a partition of feudal territory that dated back to the Carolingian age. Geographically nearest to France, it had been significantly influenced by French culture, and would change hands multiple times over the decades – France briefly seizing both halves of the peninsula on nationalist grounds in the 1840s, only to lose it a couple decades later to a rising Germany that had not forgotten its old claim to the region as a hereditary a possession of the emperor.

Germany in 1898 – and for that matter since the Slovak Crisis – however, was no longer the mighty hegemon it once was. Germany's initial fears of Slovak expansion proved ill-founded, and it had actually allied with them against the Bulgarians – only for the latter, with Italian support, to push the Germans back across the Alps. France itself had reacquired the Franche-Comte (briefly held in the late 1850s, after the partition of Lotharingia) from Germany in 1893, but paid a heavy enough price in blood to seek an ally for the next go-around, especially should the Byzantines participate in force.

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19th-century Jan Mayen, of course, had no real love for Germany, even after re-acquiring Pomerania; the bears viewed its flourishing industrial economy as a dangerous rival, and many of its leading industrialists, buoyed by a state-sponsored infusion of Pomeranian wealth, wondered if similar opportunities might be found across the border in Brandenburg or Schelswig-Holstein.

For Nanuk Bera, the prospect of victory meant unmatched glory – a chance to stamp his name on history as greater than Otso, as the bear who ruled the world, the greatest ruler, human or bear, on Earth.

France and Jan Mayen could claim numerous allies, and Novgorod and Turov gave the Germans further difficulties on their eastern front, while Assyria and the Samanids did likewise for Byzantium – and Ireland and Scotland, long rivals and cause for Franco-Ursine tension, sent more men from across the sea. Germany could count on Byzantine and Visigoth support, along with the small state of Bohemia-Moravia (which had been under German influence for virtually its whole history) and tiny Martinique.

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German rulers undoubtedly hoped that Jan Mayen's own internal instability, which had characterized much of Nanuk Bera's time in office, would lead to a more favorable result than in 1893 – when they had lost to both powers at once, albeit without the benefit of a formal alliance. If anything, however, Italy's decision to use the conflict as an opportunity to reclaim Istria made the fighting even more lopsided against Germany.

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In the middle of an election year, with the war going well and nearly every nation that could complain already involved in the conflict one way or the other, Nanuk Bera declared incredibly elaborate war aims, holding that nearly the entirety of Northern Germany rightfully belonged to the bears.

It may have cost him the presidency.
 
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The election of 1894 had been contested by four political parties, all of which took great pains to emphasize their loyalty to electoral politics; Strid’s leadership had long since put the disputed 1881 election behind them, and instead ran a typical campaign noting their role in industrialization and the need for respecting the gods and protecting the poor from the market. The election of 1898, still run on a first-past-the-post basis, would add two more parties to the mix, both of which openly rejected the 4th Jan Mayenese Republic.

Although the Radicals and Communists were bitter enemies, they were not without their commonalities: both had arisen from dissidents in the rump state of Ryazan, whose prince remained comfortably on his throne as an absolute monarch despite having long since lost the city of that name. Both were fiercely secular movements that contained out-and-out atheists among their leadership and endorsed political theories that need not reference Ukko, Otso, Tapio, or any other god – which made them cross borders all the more easily, for Ryazanians typically pray to Perun. Both opposed the Great War as an example of Nanuk Bera’s reckless ambition, but neither went so far as to advocate desertion and strikes against the war effort, like their rivals in the Arbeiderparti did – although in many cases, Radicals and Communists on the front joined together in mutinies to demand the election of officers. And both wholeheartedly embraced the notion, inaugurated by Venstre but controversial as recently as 1880, that all people (and of course bears), regardless of language or culture, merited full equality under the law.

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Where they differed was on the economy – for while both were primarily movements of the downtrodden and desperate, who have always been the people on the barricades in every revolution, their solutions were opposite and irreconcilable. Communists tended to be unemployed or poorly paid industrial workers, hunters, and miners, and could therefore imagine no solution outside of central planning, while the typical Radical was a struggling farmer or small business owner who was close enough to self-sufficiency to believe a tax cut and the abolition of tariffs would put them on their feet.

And while both rejected the republic, they did so for opposite reasons. Radicals believed that any governments were contrary to natural law, idealizing the polar bear of medieval times who hunted seals on his or her own. They did not wish to return to the days when nobles hunted bears for sport, and understood the dangers of international politics – but accepted governments only insofar as they prevented violence, and believed that, while the state should arm and supply soldiers, no one should be forced into the army except on a voluntary basis. To them, a pole-spanning republic or democracy was simply a sham, an excuse for election winners to rule over the losers.

The Communists, conversely, believed strongly in democracy – they simply did not believe, despite universal suffrage, that they actually lived in one; perhaps the short-lived Astrakhan Utopia was the only democracy in history, or at least in living memory. To them, little had changed since the days of estates and orders; presidents were inevitably wealthy bears (it should be noted that Rawr Carnivora, their leader, was very much a bear as well – despite the occasional appearance at a rally here and there in an unconvincing human costume) and so was virtually everyone in parliament, while day-to-day lives were lived under the exploitation of whatever landed or industrial elite happened to dominate the area. They further denounced the waste and chaos of production, viewing closed factories and the resulting unemployment not as individual failings, but as inevitable aspects of the system which could only be solved by rational central planning. The practice of public elections opened voters up to retaliation for voting “wrong”, and the press censorship which neither Hoyre, Strid, nor Venstre had abandoned when in power denied voters the right to make informed decisions which might go against the ruling elites.

Had the election been held in 1897, perhaps the Radicals would have won – either before the great rebellion began or as a means of ending it. But a year later, many of the leading radical cadres and ideologues were dead, and many of the survivors had gone into the woods or the tundra, still not believing in the possibility of winning power through elections, and often contemptuous of the alleged foolishness of the masses.

Nanuk Bera would not share the good fortune of his namesake to die in office, nor would he accomplish his dream of ruling the most powerful nation on Earth. He remained a formidable campaigner with an impressive personal presence, but after 18 years in office, had lost touch with much of the public, who had grown disgusted with the violence of both the Jan Mayenese Civil War, and then the Great War coming so soon afterwards. The people wanted a dramatic change – greater than Hoyre (despite its 15% of seats) or for that matter Strid or the Arbeiderparti could provide.

In 1899, Rawr Carnivora was elected president of the 4th Jan Mayenese Republic, with a popular mandate for a revolution.

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And yet, every student knows, the Bears and Peoples Federation began in 1900. 1899 was a strange transitional year, one which oscillated between the elation of victory and bitter disappointment, for liberals as much as for communists.

Communism in 1899 was a new movement, and much of what people today think of as representing “communism” was itself forged by the Bears and Peoples Federation’s actions and the deeds of Rawr Carnivora as president. This is not to say, mind you, that the individuals elected as communists were random people off the street (despite the occasional bit of advocacy in communist pamphlets for a return to the 2nd Republic’s system of sortition, albeit with far more limited terms in office); most had known each other through trade union circles or the more radical wings of Arbeider clubs, a few had come over from the more militant factions of Strid temples.

But although it had a doctrine, this was not a disciplined political party, as would be demonstrated in the infamous “liberal surge” of January 11.

It is hard to dismiss the persistent accusations, made by communists both at the time and ever since, that a number of bears and humans elected as communists were quite literally bribed by wealthy industrialists to oppose Rawr Carnivora’s changes – but in all fairness, we can not be clear that every individual so elected supported all of them to begin with.

What we can be certain of is that they crossed the floor en masse, creating that oddity of a newly elected communist president grappling with an at least notional Venstre majority in parliament.

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The two groups were able to agree, on June 5, to the abolition of slavery – a custom already illegal in every Jan Mayenese province, but not through national legislation, and which remained practiced in both Virginia and the Ursine States of the new world.

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More surprisingly, despite the pre-election rhetoric that fools many a student or young communist today, the president and parliament were able to agree to continue fighting the Great War – albeit for dramatically different reasons. Venstre (and Hoyre, whose anti-communist votes it relied on) believed Rawr Carnivora an aberration who would, who must be stymied, and therefore continued to fight for expanded markets and national glory; Communists, including most soldiers on the ground along with the president, instead believed they had an obligation not to abandon the people of northern Germany, living in territories ursine armies had already seized, to the restoration of capitalist rule.

It was here, however, that the collaboration ended. The economy of 1899 was in chaos, the state treasury drained by fierce battles over taxation, frequent non-compliance, and a strike wave of workers who believed the government would finally take their side, as much as by the war effort. Rawr Carnivora was able to seize bankrupt factories and open them by presidential decree; changing the management of existing ones, however, was a far more vigorously resisted matter.

It is a testament to both the accomplishments of Nanuk Bera and the discipline of the military’s Communist Leagues that none of the chaos in the countryside, the capital, or on the factory floor was able to change the Great War’s outcome; indeed, German historians often trace the beginning of Jan Mayenese hegemony not to the peace of October, but to February or March of 1899. Jan Mayen was in chaos, but much of Germany was under outright foreign occupation, and neither France or China, despite similarly sized (perhaps slightly larger, if only for this year) economies, had the military strength or international prestige to be taken seriously as a rival.

March 1899 was also, incidentally, the month when Bohemia sacrificed its enclave in Wielkopolskie to Novgorod in exchange for exiting the war; it had made the same offer earlier, but at the time its participation was still far too valued as a corridor to march Novgorodian soldiers into Germany.

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The fear of losing everything to communism stiffened German resistance, as politicians from the lands claimed by Jan Mayen lobbied for extensive fighting, less for victory than for an acceptable peace treaty, all while trying to liquidate their holdings therein for pennies on the dollar.

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But the destruction of the German army, and propaganda from the Jan Mayenese, gave the emperor a greater fear; he justified the October cession as the only way to save Germany from communism, or at least as much of it as he could.

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The cession of Brittany to France, over which the war had been ostensibly fought, acquired considerably less notice even in Germany itself. The Visigoths accepted peace the next day, and the French bourgeoisie, however the rise of communism in the far north disturbed them, could at least console themselves with new Atlantic ports and a border at the Pyrenees.

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The end of the Great War is traditionally dated, however, to December 12th, 1899, when an embattled Bohemia ceded its eastern half to Bulgarian expansion.

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The parliamentary election of 1900 saw virtually all of the MPs who switched sides voted out, the people and bears answering the political crisis of 1899 with a decisive mandate for communism.

The liberation of serfs on temple land, decreed on the day parliament opened, came about with surprisingly little resistance. The policy was justified by the prior year’s law abolishing of slavery, but it disturbed the more religious elements of the communist party; even Nanuk Bera after the 1881 war had never dared to revoke these ancient ‘gifts’. Many a head priest appealed to state funding to allow them to guarantee the shrine’s upkeep: “by all means free these people, they deserve better, but please do not neglect the gods.”

Despite these pleas, many gods – or at least their shrines – were allowed to fall into disrepair. Many temples – more often than not, those associated with the Strid sect - continued to receive state funding based on historical, architectural, or cultural interest, but those dedicated to less popular gods or in remote regions would often be simply abandoned, or cared for by their priests alone, now on their own time. The degree of secularization varied considerably, in large part (making a mockery of communist claims to greater democracy) on the attitude of the local party leader towards religion; those provinces led by recent defectors from Strid still have considerably more surviving temples than those led by ex-Arbedeir members.

There was also no longer any legal question about the abolition of capitalism, the transfer of factories to their workers, mines to their miners, and forests to their loggers, all of which were also decreed within days of the election result, but this was not enough to win the consent of the old Venstre elite to the Jan Mayenese revolution.

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The March Coup has always had something of a farcical quality to it, and like any failed coup attempt, it is unclear just how deep within the state support for it truly ran. Suffice it to say that it appears to have been primarily a movement of business owners themselves, albeit backed up, for muscle, by a few ex-Radical veterans. The risings in Stockholm and Turku successfully sealed the gulf of Finland, but the conspirators in Oulu itself seem to have lost their nerve, while those on the Karelian isthmus, for all their work maneuvering into key positions, were shot down by members of the local workers’ militias, their heads mounted on walls and displayed as trophies in a gruesome reminder of the class war.

Ex-president Nanuk Bera would be placed under house arrest for the rest of his life, but the question of his actual culpability remains controversial; the fact that he was not executed is treated by some as an act of mercy, and by others as proof that, although the plotters likely wanted to re-install him as president, he was not actually involved.

Combined with the election results, the coup attempt discredited any resistance from Venstre; a low-level civil war would continue in portions of the countryside where old elites were particularly popular, but the early Bears and Peoples Federation would prove far less violent than the Bera administration.

As for foreign affairs, Jan Mayen in this period was simply unchallenged. The conquest (or ‘revolution’ if one prefers) of Northern Germany added its many workers and factories to the already mighty ursine empire. It rendered Jan Mayen’s economy for the first time the world’s largest, and by a wide margin at that - although it would be years before the damage of prolonged warfare could be undone and the region again boom like it had under German rule. Although it had not exactly been a credible effort, in a real sense the failure of the March Coup marked the end of history, the last challenge to the hegemony of the Jan Mayenese Bears and Peoples Federation which would dominate the 20th century and so much of our current age.

The bears rule the North. The bears rule the world. Or do they? Perhaps it would be more accurate to say the Jan Mayenese do, for under communism (and the Bears and Peoples Federation, despite the odd Venstre state government or shock Strid president, is in its constitution very much a communist state) bears and humans are equal.

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I’ve chosen this point to end the AAR. I could never get into HoI as a series, and test-running it hands-off for 18 years wasn’t enough to get rid of Jan Mayen’s massive lead. A round year in 1900, a completed Great War, and the election of an openly anti-Republic party therefore strikes me as the best possible place to stop.

I hope you enjoyed the read!
 
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Not a bad place to stop. Unless you want bears in space.