We're getting at least three communist paths. You're probably spot on with the rest, though I think we're likely to get a monarchist, fascist, and democratic path with the potential of one these being replaced with a completely bonkers path.
If we take into account what the Polish monarchy sub-tree looks like with four discrete monarchist routes, I think it's more than possible. If you put a gun to my head, I'd predict that, after the inevitable Second Russian Civil War, they'll have a tree that splits two ways. The first way would be split between a democratic republic and a constitutional monarchy as you wrote with a lot of interconnectivity. The republic route would probably split in half between the the imperial republic and Slavic Federation that you wrote, though they'd probably be mostly the same tree. The other way the non-communist tree splits would be between the fascist and monarchist paths, along with the potential weird route. They fascist and autocratic monarchist paths would be almost entirely separate, but the weird path (theocracy? overt Third Rome? Rasputinist?) would likely share at least something with the monarchist one.
Oh, now I think that every focus tree should actually have a specific focus called "Go Completely Bonkers". It would explain so much about certain historical events/elections/referenda/etc...
An anarchist path shouldn't be completely out of the question.
The Alt-'History' trees are welcome for those that like that sort of thing, but personally I find the "generally historical but not scripted" options in the game setup options a very fine innovation that makes for interesting and believable games. This often involves many of the "vanilla" trees. (I also like the taste of proper vanilla, just as a total aside...)
Maybe they'll put him in a pastel shirt. (See the third paragraph.)
