Prologue
In the summer of 2004, the Republican Party was a political party that found itself on the outside looking in. For twelve years, the Republicans had struggled to persuade voters to put them in control of the White House. The decline in their electoral fortunes started in the early 1990s, as the United States began to put her four decade-long ideological and geopolitical struggle with the Soviet Union and the Republic of China behind her. Having led the country through much of the Cold War, the GOP fully expected to continue leading the country into the post-Cold War Era. Unfortunately for them, the end of the Cold War brought about a major political shift, as the American public demanded a greater effort by the Federal Government in resolving domestic issues than the Republicans were willing to offer. Indeed, their Presidential nominee in 1992, Bob Dole, did not offer much in the way of bold government action on a range of issues such as lowering the national debt and protecting manufacturing jobs from being shipped abroad to countries where labor was cheaper. In sharp contrast, Dole's Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, offered voters a far more vigorous domestic agenda. "The Republicans don't have any new ideas," he declared on the campaign trail, "But I do!"
Voter discontent with the Republicans should have benefitted Clinton immensely; instead, he found that voters weren't exactly thrilled with the Democrats either. Their record from when they were in power had been a dismal one. The general disillusionment towards the two major political parties provided an opening for Ross Perot to mount an Independent campaign for the Presidency. A wealthy Texas businessman, Perot had an eccentric personality and a brash style of speaking, both of which made him easy to be made fun of (Dana Carvey in particular did spot-on impressions of him on "Saturday Night Live"). What made people take Perot seriously however was his populism and his ability to connect with voters, talking to them in a way that made them feel that he understood them and their concerns better than Dole and Clinton did. Perot capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with the Establishment, portraying the Republicans and the Democrats as being equally incapable of solving the nation's problems.
"Our nation is $4 trillion in debt. Every day, our nation goes $1 billion further into debt. Now, whose fault is that? The Republicans say it is not their fault, and the Democrats say it is not their fault. Well, these two folks have been in charge, and yet they say that it is not their fault that we’re $4 trillion in debt. If it is not their fault, then I guess an extraterrestrial dropped this debt on us.
Somebody has to take responsibility for this. The Republicans are not taking responsibility, and the Democrats are not taking responsibility. How are we going to pay down our debt, and not pass it onto our children, when they made it and they are not taking responsibility for it?"
(Bill Clinton looks on as Ross Perot answers a question from a voter during a town hall Presidential debate)
Perot campaigned hard on television and on the campaign trail throughout 1992, hammering away at the failures of the two major political parties while portraying himself as a successful problem-solver whose independence meant he was free to do what had to be done for the good of the country without regard to the party line. Voters from across the political spectrum responded strongly to him, believing that their personal lives would improve greatly if the country had a President who wasn't a career politician. On Election Night, Perot won a stunning victory, with Clinton coming in second place and Dole finishing a dismal third. For a country which had seen the Democrats and the Republicans be the dominant political forces since 1856, the election of an Independent candidate to the Presidency was unprecedented. Perot used his historic election to reshape the post-Cold War political landscape, establishing the Reform Party in 1994 to be a viable third-party alternative to the Republican and Democratic Parties. Faced with a new political reality in the mid-1990s, the two major parties had to figure out how to find their way forward. While the Democrats were able to, as historian H.W. Brands put it, "Perot and the Reformers were such a shock to the system that it effectively paralyzed the Republicans."
Over the next decade, the GOP struggled to compete with the Democrats and the Reformers, its' conservatism having fallen out of favor with the general electorate. In the summer of 2004, the Republicans were stuck in the political wilderness, having last won a Presidential election in 1988. Not since the 1953-1965 period of Democratic rule had the Party of Lincoln been out of power for so long. With the White House in Democratic hands, the Republicans held their nominating convention first. Their convention opened on July 26th at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Desperate to find a Presidential nominee who could finally end the losing streak and return the party to power, the convention nominated John McCain on the first ballot. A 67-year-old veteran of the Vietnam War and the Western Pacific War of 1967, McCain had represented Arizona in the United States Senate since he succeeded Barry Goldwater in January 1989. The former naval officer wasn’t popular with everyone within the Republican Party though, as he had established a reputation in the Senate as being a political maverick who marched to the beat of his own drum rather than strictly follow the party line. That maverick style, an annoyance to some, was seen as an asset by others in 2004. They claimed that it gave McCain the flexibility to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters that a more rigid Republican nominee would not possess. Some in the media even called him “the Wendell Willkie of the 21st Century.”
Willkie was another political maverick who in 1940 led the Republicans to victory in the Presidential election, defeating the Democratic incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt in a close race. If nominating a maverick for President worked for the GOP then, maybe it could work for them now in this three-way environment.
While McCain turned his attention towards making the case for electing a Republican President after twelve years with his acceptance speech, the convention took a nostalgic trip down memory lane. Steve Forbes, the 57-year-old son of the late former President Malcolm Forbes, took the stage to give a speech reflecting on his father’s legacy. “Forty years ago this month,” the two-time Presidential candidate began, “My father stood before you to accept the nomination for the Presidency of the United States. He accepted the nomination at a time when things were looking pretty bad here in the United States. The American people, try as they might, couldn’t get ahead in their lives. They were hamstrung by a bad economy, brought on by the stubborn insistence of the Democrats – who were then in power – to raise taxes as high as they could and to spend as much money as they could.
For those who lived in abject poverty, the Democrats, for all their talk about being compassionate to those who need help the most, were useless. They were content to pat them on the head, hand them a welfare check, and say to them month after month, ‘Here. This is all you need to get by.’
The Democrats made no effort at all to try to lift people out of poverty. What they did try to do was to nationalize the steel industry after steel workers went on strike in 1962. This move was so egregious that the Supreme Court struck it down as being wholly unconstitutional. In fact, one of the Democratic cabinet officials was so against nationalizing private industry that he resigned his post in protest and became a Republican. That cabinet official was Ronald Reagan.”
The audience applauded Forbes’ mention of Reagan, who had died the month before at the age of 93 from complications related to Alzheimer’s disease.
“When Reagan was asked why he left the Democratic Party, he replied ‘I didn’t leave the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party left me.’”
(Steve Forbes)
“By the time my father accepted the nomination, the American people had come to the realization that there was only one way their lives could get better: elect my father to the Presidency of the United States. So they did, and…”
Forbes stopped speaking for a moment, cracking a smile at the sudden sight of a wave of reproduction “Forbes for President” signs from the 1964 Republican National Convention rising up from the audience.
“And guess what happened? Everyone’s lives got better. My father immediately cut taxes and reigned in spending, producing massive economic growth that the Democrats could only dream of. Everyone had more money in their pockets, more jobs became available, and the Federal Government finally began to move towards balancing the budget, which at that time hadn’t been balanced since the early ‘50s. Not coincidently, the President who had balanced the budget at that time was a Republican [Thomas E. Dewey].
For those who lived in abject poverty, my father provided them with opportunity. Real opportunity, not just a check in the mail each month. He reformed the welfare system, making it capable of giving those in need a hands-up instead of simply a hand-out. Under my father, poverty became something you could get out of, not be stuck in forever.
My father cared about those people. He also cared about civil rights. Throughout his time as President, my father showed an unwavering commitment towards advancing racial equality in this country. He appointed more black people to his cabinet, to positions throughout the Federal Government, and to the judicial bench than his three Democratic predecessors combined [Adlai Stevenson, John Sparkman, and Henry M. Jackson]. He did so not because he wanted to score points with the black community, but because it was the right thing to do. Martin Luther King Jr. praised my father for displaying what he called ‘moral leadership’.
When it came time to fill his first seat on the Supreme Court in 1968, my father only had one man in mind for that high position: Thurgood Marshal. Again, my father appointed Marshal as the first black justice of the Supreme Court not because he wanted to score points with the black community in an election year, but because Marshal was the right man for the job.
Whereas other people talked about advancing racial equality, my father did it. During his first year as President, my father worked with Congress to pass a civil rights bill. Although the bill that Congress passed didn’t go as far as he would have liked, it did end the segregation of public facilities and of public schools.”
(Thurgood Marshal, seen here posing with his family prior to being sworn in as the first black justice of the Supreme Court in 1968)
“When it came to small businesses, my father showed that he was a friend ready to provide them with a helping hand.”
Forbes was referring to the Small Business Development Act of 1966. Passed by Congress that spring, the SBDA had its’ roots in a memorandum Secretary of Commerce George W. Romney submitted to President Forbes in the beginning of 1966. Romney’s memorandum indicated that in the past year, the number of small businesses which opened their doors was just 47,000. It claimed that years of regulations imposed on businesses by the Democrats “has made it difficult for private enterprise to flourish in the numbers needed in order to generate significant job creation and economic growth, which go hand-in-hand.”
To spur the establishment of more small businesses, Romney recommended slashing red tape and providing greater financial assistance. President Forbes promptly followed his Secretary of Commerce’s recommendations and worked with Congress to enact the SBDA. Under the Act:
(In November 1969, Dave Thomas opened the first Wendy’s hamburger restaurant in Columbus, Ohio. Named after one of his daughters, Wendy’s would go on to become the third-largest hamburger fast food chain in the world, behind Burger King and McDonald’s)
“Of course, one of the most important things my father did was to end the Vietnam War in a responsible manner. The Democrats wanted to simply abandon South Vietnam, not caring at all about the consequences of abruptly pulling out all our troops while the enemy was still out in the field. Not my father. He insisted on staying the course in Vietnam until victory was secured. And you know what? It was.
We stayed on the offense, eliminating the Viet Cong guerillas as a threat to the South Vietnamese. We expelled the North Vietnamese from the South, and even took the war directly to them. That was when the enemy recognized that we weren’t going to let them win and became willing to engage in meaningful peace talks.
What my father understood, and what the Democrats did not, and still don’t, is that our enemies only take us seriously when we are strong. They do not take us seriously when we are weak.”
“So what does my father’s Presidency, which took place in the past, have to do with where we are today,” Forbes asked in his conclusion, which came after he had mentioned several other highlights of his father’s legacy. “The answer to that question is this: while much has changed over these past forty years, one thing has not. The Democrats love to talk about how they are the party of progress. We are going to get a lot of that talk when they have their convention in Boston in a few weeks. But the fact is: it is the Republican Party, our party, which actually produces progress. Real, meaningful progress. My father left the country in better shape than how he found it. I know John McCain will get the country in better shape than it is now when we elect him to be the next President of the United States in November. With John McCain in the White House, he will deliver real, meaningful progress for the American people, not the illusion of progress we get from the Democrats, and for that matter, from the Reformers.
When the American people go to the polls this November to cast their votes, they will be faced with the same choice they were faced with forty years ago: real progress or fake progress. Forty years ago, they wanted real progress and got it from my father. We delivered then, and we will deliver now. That is the Republican guarantee.”
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Welcome to the third installment in the Presidents series: America and the Cold War (1966-1991). Having gone through the Vietnam War in the last AAR, this AAR will take us through the remainder of the Cold War Era.
For the prologue, I wanted to do a recap of the Forbes Presidency so far. Thus, his son's speech at the 2004 Republican National Convention. As the prologue indicates, things are not going very well for the Republicans by the time we get to their 2004 convention. Historically, the Republican Party at the Presidential level hasn't done very well in the post-Cold War Era. Since 1992, the Republicans have only won the Electoral College three times (2000, 2004, and 2016), and has only won the popular vote once (2004). Add in a much more successful Ross Perot and a more viable Reform Party, and things become more difficult for the Party of Lincoln.
Can McCain break the GOP's losing streak in 2004? Well...it's going to be a while before we find out, because we are heading back to January 1966 in the next update. Back to the good old days for the Republican Party.
In the summer of 2004, the Republican Party was a political party that found itself on the outside looking in. For twelve years, the Republicans had struggled to persuade voters to put them in control of the White House. The decline in their electoral fortunes started in the early 1990s, as the United States began to put her four decade-long ideological and geopolitical struggle with the Soviet Union and the Republic of China behind her. Having led the country through much of the Cold War, the GOP fully expected to continue leading the country into the post-Cold War Era. Unfortunately for them, the end of the Cold War brought about a major political shift, as the American public demanded a greater effort by the Federal Government in resolving domestic issues than the Republicans were willing to offer. Indeed, their Presidential nominee in 1992, Bob Dole, did not offer much in the way of bold government action on a range of issues such as lowering the national debt and protecting manufacturing jobs from being shipped abroad to countries where labor was cheaper. In sharp contrast, Dole's Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton, offered voters a far more vigorous domestic agenda. "The Republicans don't have any new ideas," he declared on the campaign trail, "But I do!"
Voter discontent with the Republicans should have benefitted Clinton immensely; instead, he found that voters weren't exactly thrilled with the Democrats either. Their record from when they were in power had been a dismal one. The general disillusionment towards the two major political parties provided an opening for Ross Perot to mount an Independent campaign for the Presidency. A wealthy Texas businessman, Perot had an eccentric personality and a brash style of speaking, both of which made him easy to be made fun of (Dana Carvey in particular did spot-on impressions of him on "Saturday Night Live"). What made people take Perot seriously however was his populism and his ability to connect with voters, talking to them in a way that made them feel that he understood them and their concerns better than Dole and Clinton did. Perot capitalized on voter dissatisfaction with the Establishment, portraying the Republicans and the Democrats as being equally incapable of solving the nation's problems.
"Our nation is $4 trillion in debt. Every day, our nation goes $1 billion further into debt. Now, whose fault is that? The Republicans say it is not their fault, and the Democrats say it is not their fault. Well, these two folks have been in charge, and yet they say that it is not their fault that we’re $4 trillion in debt. If it is not their fault, then I guess an extraterrestrial dropped this debt on us.
Somebody has to take responsibility for this. The Republicans are not taking responsibility, and the Democrats are not taking responsibility. How are we going to pay down our debt, and not pass it onto our children, when they made it and they are not taking responsibility for it?"
(Bill Clinton looks on as Ross Perot answers a question from a voter during a town hall Presidential debate)
Perot campaigned hard on television and on the campaign trail throughout 1992, hammering away at the failures of the two major political parties while portraying himself as a successful problem-solver whose independence meant he was free to do what had to be done for the good of the country without regard to the party line. Voters from across the political spectrum responded strongly to him, believing that their personal lives would improve greatly if the country had a President who wasn't a career politician. On Election Night, Perot won a stunning victory, with Clinton coming in second place and Dole finishing a dismal third. For a country which had seen the Democrats and the Republicans be the dominant political forces since 1856, the election of an Independent candidate to the Presidency was unprecedented. Perot used his historic election to reshape the post-Cold War political landscape, establishing the Reform Party in 1994 to be a viable third-party alternative to the Republican and Democratic Parties. Faced with a new political reality in the mid-1990s, the two major parties had to figure out how to find their way forward. While the Democrats were able to, as historian H.W. Brands put it, "Perot and the Reformers were such a shock to the system that it effectively paralyzed the Republicans."
Over the next decade, the GOP struggled to compete with the Democrats and the Reformers, its' conservatism having fallen out of favor with the general electorate. In the summer of 2004, the Republicans were stuck in the political wilderness, having last won a Presidential election in 1988. Not since the 1953-1965 period of Democratic rule had the Party of Lincoln been out of power for so long. With the White House in Democratic hands, the Republicans held their nominating convention first. Their convention opened on July 26th at Madison Square Garden in New York City. Desperate to find a Presidential nominee who could finally end the losing streak and return the party to power, the convention nominated John McCain on the first ballot. A 67-year-old veteran of the Vietnam War and the Western Pacific War of 1967, McCain had represented Arizona in the United States Senate since he succeeded Barry Goldwater in January 1989. The former naval officer wasn’t popular with everyone within the Republican Party though, as he had established a reputation in the Senate as being a political maverick who marched to the beat of his own drum rather than strictly follow the party line. That maverick style, an annoyance to some, was seen as an asset by others in 2004. They claimed that it gave McCain the flexibility to appeal to a wide spectrum of voters that a more rigid Republican nominee would not possess. Some in the media even called him “the Wendell Willkie of the 21st Century.”
Willkie was another political maverick who in 1940 led the Republicans to victory in the Presidential election, defeating the Democratic incumbent Franklin D. Roosevelt in a close race. If nominating a maverick for President worked for the GOP then, maybe it could work for them now in this three-way environment.
While McCain turned his attention towards making the case for electing a Republican President after twelve years with his acceptance speech, the convention took a nostalgic trip down memory lane. Steve Forbes, the 57-year-old son of the late former President Malcolm Forbes, took the stage to give a speech reflecting on his father’s legacy. “Forty years ago this month,” the two-time Presidential candidate began, “My father stood before you to accept the nomination for the Presidency of the United States. He accepted the nomination at a time when things were looking pretty bad here in the United States. The American people, try as they might, couldn’t get ahead in their lives. They were hamstrung by a bad economy, brought on by the stubborn insistence of the Democrats – who were then in power – to raise taxes as high as they could and to spend as much money as they could.
For those who lived in abject poverty, the Democrats, for all their talk about being compassionate to those who need help the most, were useless. They were content to pat them on the head, hand them a welfare check, and say to them month after month, ‘Here. This is all you need to get by.’
The Democrats made no effort at all to try to lift people out of poverty. What they did try to do was to nationalize the steel industry after steel workers went on strike in 1962. This move was so egregious that the Supreme Court struck it down as being wholly unconstitutional. In fact, one of the Democratic cabinet officials was so against nationalizing private industry that he resigned his post in protest and became a Republican. That cabinet official was Ronald Reagan.”
The audience applauded Forbes’ mention of Reagan, who had died the month before at the age of 93 from complications related to Alzheimer’s disease.
“When Reagan was asked why he left the Democratic Party, he replied ‘I didn’t leave the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party left me.’”
(Steve Forbes)
“By the time my father accepted the nomination, the American people had come to the realization that there was only one way their lives could get better: elect my father to the Presidency of the United States. So they did, and…”
Forbes stopped speaking for a moment, cracking a smile at the sudden sight of a wave of reproduction “Forbes for President” signs from the 1964 Republican National Convention rising up from the audience.
“And guess what happened? Everyone’s lives got better. My father immediately cut taxes and reigned in spending, producing massive economic growth that the Democrats could only dream of. Everyone had more money in their pockets, more jobs became available, and the Federal Government finally began to move towards balancing the budget, which at that time hadn’t been balanced since the early ‘50s. Not coincidently, the President who had balanced the budget at that time was a Republican [Thomas E. Dewey].
For those who lived in abject poverty, my father provided them with opportunity. Real opportunity, not just a check in the mail each month. He reformed the welfare system, making it capable of giving those in need a hands-up instead of simply a hand-out. Under my father, poverty became something you could get out of, not be stuck in forever.
My father cared about those people. He also cared about civil rights. Throughout his time as President, my father showed an unwavering commitment towards advancing racial equality in this country. He appointed more black people to his cabinet, to positions throughout the Federal Government, and to the judicial bench than his three Democratic predecessors combined [Adlai Stevenson, John Sparkman, and Henry M. Jackson]. He did so not because he wanted to score points with the black community, but because it was the right thing to do. Martin Luther King Jr. praised my father for displaying what he called ‘moral leadership’.
When it came time to fill his first seat on the Supreme Court in 1968, my father only had one man in mind for that high position: Thurgood Marshal. Again, my father appointed Marshal as the first black justice of the Supreme Court not because he wanted to score points with the black community in an election year, but because Marshal was the right man for the job.
Whereas other people talked about advancing racial equality, my father did it. During his first year as President, my father worked with Congress to pass a civil rights bill. Although the bill that Congress passed didn’t go as far as he would have liked, it did end the segregation of public facilities and of public schools.”
(Thurgood Marshal, seen here posing with his family prior to being sworn in as the first black justice of the Supreme Court in 1968)
“When it came to small businesses, my father showed that he was a friend ready to provide them with a helping hand.”
Forbes was referring to the Small Business Development Act of 1966. Passed by Congress that spring, the SBDA had its’ roots in a memorandum Secretary of Commerce George W. Romney submitted to President Forbes in the beginning of 1966. Romney’s memorandum indicated that in the past year, the number of small businesses which opened their doors was just 47,000. It claimed that years of regulations imposed on businesses by the Democrats “has made it difficult for private enterprise to flourish in the numbers needed in order to generate significant job creation and economic growth, which go hand-in-hand.”
To spur the establishment of more small businesses, Romney recommended slashing red tape and providing greater financial assistance. President Forbes promptly followed his Secretary of Commerce’s recommendations and worked with Congress to enact the SBDA. Under the Act:
- The number of regulations imposed on businesses were reduced, along with the amount of Federal paperwork they had to do
- The Federal tax requirements for businesses were simplified
- The availability of long-term credit and equity capital for small businesses, provided by the Small Business Administration, was increased
- A mandate was established that at least 25% of prime Federal contracts would go to small businesses
(In November 1969, Dave Thomas opened the first Wendy’s hamburger restaurant in Columbus, Ohio. Named after one of his daughters, Wendy’s would go on to become the third-largest hamburger fast food chain in the world, behind Burger King and McDonald’s)
“Of course, one of the most important things my father did was to end the Vietnam War in a responsible manner. The Democrats wanted to simply abandon South Vietnam, not caring at all about the consequences of abruptly pulling out all our troops while the enemy was still out in the field. Not my father. He insisted on staying the course in Vietnam until victory was secured. And you know what? It was.
We stayed on the offense, eliminating the Viet Cong guerillas as a threat to the South Vietnamese. We expelled the North Vietnamese from the South, and even took the war directly to them. That was when the enemy recognized that we weren’t going to let them win and became willing to engage in meaningful peace talks.
What my father understood, and what the Democrats did not, and still don’t, is that our enemies only take us seriously when we are strong. They do not take us seriously when we are weak.”
“So what does my father’s Presidency, which took place in the past, have to do with where we are today,” Forbes asked in his conclusion, which came after he had mentioned several other highlights of his father’s legacy. “The answer to that question is this: while much has changed over these past forty years, one thing has not. The Democrats love to talk about how they are the party of progress. We are going to get a lot of that talk when they have their convention in Boston in a few weeks. But the fact is: it is the Republican Party, our party, which actually produces progress. Real, meaningful progress. My father left the country in better shape than how he found it. I know John McCain will get the country in better shape than it is now when we elect him to be the next President of the United States in November. With John McCain in the White House, he will deliver real, meaningful progress for the American people, not the illusion of progress we get from the Democrats, and for that matter, from the Reformers.
When the American people go to the polls this November to cast their votes, they will be faced with the same choice they were faced with forty years ago: real progress or fake progress. Forty years ago, they wanted real progress and got it from my father. We delivered then, and we will deliver now. That is the Republican guarantee.”
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Welcome to the third installment in the Presidents series: America and the Cold War (1966-1991). Having gone through the Vietnam War in the last AAR, this AAR will take us through the remainder of the Cold War Era.
For the prologue, I wanted to do a recap of the Forbes Presidency so far. Thus, his son's speech at the 2004 Republican National Convention. As the prologue indicates, things are not going very well for the Republicans by the time we get to their 2004 convention. Historically, the Republican Party at the Presidential level hasn't done very well in the post-Cold War Era. Since 1992, the Republicans have only won the Electoral College three times (2000, 2004, and 2016), and has only won the popular vote once (2004). Add in a much more successful Ross Perot and a more viable Reform Party, and things become more difficult for the Party of Lincoln.
Can McCain break the GOP's losing streak in 2004? Well...it's going to be a while before we find out, because we are heading back to January 1966 in the next update. Back to the good old days for the Republican Party.
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