Well why not then just read history? Why should it happen 95% for something like that?
These are key for Iberia and should happen most of the time (~95%):
- Spain and Portugal both existing when ToT needs to fire.
- Spain and Portugal colonizing historical regions
- Spain and Portugal for atleast become descently powerful early on.
- Spain discoering America when it should and first.
- Portugal mapping Africa aproximatly when it should and first.
These things are important, but not key and should happen descent amount of the time (~70%):
- Spain taking on American natives and winning.
- Portugal being involved to some extent in Near East and India.
- Portugal and Spain colonizing historical regions with correct numbers.
- Catile and Aragon uniting.
- Granada dying when it historically should aproximatly (not within the first few years nor lingering on indefinatly), perferably by Castile/Spain, not Portugal.
- Atleast some involvement with Spain/Portugal in the far east.
These things because they happened should likely happen, but shouldn't be prssed (~51%)
- Spain taking out american natives in one war apiece.
- Portugal dominating India and Near East Trade for a time.
- The eventual decline of Portugal and Spain.
- Heavier involvemnt in Far East than currently.
These things should be possible, but not likely since they didn't historically happen (~49%):
- Some ahisotirc revolters forming under certain conditions
- Colonization in other surrounding historical (ie not just colonize only provinces they histroically colonized, but also surrounding ones, FE Spain going and colonizing all of SA, including all of Brazil and Portugal concentrating on India than SA
- Spain or Portugal be able to out-compete Britian and others in some unhistroic areas (FE Inidia) (this is kida related to #2)
These should be possible, but not likely. However, they shouldn't be stopped from happening on occasion, just the norm.
- Granada dying quickly
- Granda surviving infinatly long (perhaps to 1820(
- A unifitcation of Spain/Portugal after the ToT
- Navarra becoming a part of Spain/Castile or France/Dauphaine.
- Aragon, if it survives doing <i>some</i> colonizing later on. Perhaps also Navarra...and dare I say Granada, but not so much for either of them.
- Unhistorical Colonization, such as Spain colonizing Eastern NA or Portugal colonzing CA.
- Castile or Portugal going Reformed or Protestant
These few things should preety much be stamped out (~5%
- Both Spain and Portugal not existing.
- Resurgant Granda (except for <i<Frantasy</i> Resurgant Granada scenerio)
- A powerhouse Navarra
- Non-Iberians controlling huge chunks of Iberia.
These are all my opinions of course, some of which i'm sure you agree with and others you don't.
Again, I'm not arguing against the rise of Spain, but merely the method and the extent.