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It's quiet, too quiet. In the interest of spurring discussion, I'd like to ask the following five players to go on the record and state exactly why they all switched to HDK right before switching to Eusebio almost immediately after.
I've purposefully avoided posting today to observe the activities of Cliges. This time 24 hours ago me and him were just coming out of a fairly rapid exchange. He did not hold back in trying to accuse people. The moment there was a groundswell against him however, with others beyond myself calling him out for constant posts and incoherent arguments, both before and after yesterday's vote he shut up and has remained quiet throughout the day and has posted only once. Sure, this could be the activity of a very active villager, but the desperate need to accuse people he showed yesterday makes him extremely suspicious to me.
Although I'm tempted to keep my joke vote on LK, I'll save my ammunition (for now ), and I'll throw a vote on one of the lemmings from yesterday as a "placeholder" (but not really) until tomorrow morning. Which I guess LK was... but anyway....
Madchemist and Euro led them, either intentionally (most likely in Euro's case) or not (was MC intending a bunch of lemmings to follow his every switch?), but since they might have their reasons, I'm more interested in those who rapidly switched just because that's the way the conga line was moving. Arky, Alxeu, Tamius, Sleepy, Claude, and LK all jumped on the initial wagon after it got rolling, and Arky, LK, and Sleepy stuck around for at least one or two more goes. I understand why a villager might have second thoughts about the HDK vote seeing how quickly he rose (either we assume a bunch of villagers suddenly thought the same about a candidate nobody had paid attention to before, or one or more packs were present and thought he was a ok to lynch.... so yeah, the sudden pile on should give pause), but to keep switching after switching off HDK, and for seemingly no reason besides Euro or MC having pointed in someone elses direction?
At the very least, Sleepy (self preservation for the first one, fine), Arky, and LK shoud have to answer for WHY they kept switching their votes, other then blind following. And for why they thought X or Y person was so interesting.
Hmm, and after writing that it seems I don't actually need to move my vote off LK. Go figure.
For a supposedly dead game, there is a lot of text to read! On to business, then:
Were I a bad guy, I'd try to avoid involvement in events like those of yesterday this early in the game (except if it was to save my own hide). Trying to save a packmate in danger via coordinated voting action would probably be effective, but also pretty risky. And even if it worked out, it would still leave an information trail about you that could be used later on.
Yesterday, I tried to start a case on Emperor Ike on making an easy, early-day vote. That train never picked up any momentum, which makes me want to have another go again today.
It's quiet, too quiet. In the interest of spurring discussion, I'd like to ask the following five players to go on the record and state exactly why they all switched to HDK right before switching to Eusebio almost immediately after.
Had the practice of chaotically switching votes en masse right before deadline not begun yet when you last played? (As for you, ramius, don't play village idiot - you know our customs!)
Comm Cody: 2
LatinKaiser [400 Sleepy -> 443 hdk -> 447]
aedan [338 Claude -> 451 CC]
Claude LC: 1
De Chat [355]
ramius: 1
Wagonlitz [301]
Wagonlitz: 1
Chefjones [288]
madchemist: 1
Cliges [315]
De Chatillon: 1
deathbywombat [319]
Emperor Ike: 1
Jopi [340]
AsdfeZxcas: 1
Eternaly_Lost [353]
Capage: 1
MAWofdoom [354]
Not Voted: 2
the_hdk*
Capibara*
Please take a look and make sure your vote is correctly counted. Who hangs today is obvious, but I want to make sure I didn't miss anything
Cliges seems to be getting quite a bit of attention today, mostly based on based on panzer the wolf letting him off in his analysis. Also based on his rather... interesting... postings so far. In this regard its worthwhile to use the who replied functionality to look at the list of all of his postings. There are a lot of posts from Cliges, but almost none of them have any real substance to them, the only game related thing he said was his theory about the no hunt and him jumping on marco for following his theory. I could quite easily see him being a baddie trying to be active without actually saying anything that might get him killed. I agree he needs to get attention today, but since he already seems to be in the lead(I think? votecount?) I'll place my vote somewhere else.
I agree with the sentiment that someone(or even multiple people) got saved yesterday. Leaving the general chaos aside, Panzer the wolf being eager to do switches should also be a good hint in that direction.
Out of the people involved in the voteswitching I think Ike is the most egregious. His postings in this game consist of a bunch of one-liners with no reasoning attached, and then he helps trigger a bandwagon just before deadline without so much as any reason given. He has so far been utterly unhelpful to the village and needs to be pushed forward. (this is actually quite similar to the point I made about sleepy yesterday, except he now also has involvement in some sketchy voteswitching as well) VOTE IKE
Thoughts on the other cases so far:
euro: Always hard to read. The vote he got seems to be based on euro's involvement in the voteswitching yesterday. Could be a wolf hiding behind Euro's reputation for chaos to save packmates, but could also be a vill trying to create opportunities for wolves to make mistakes. Not sure which of the two is the case here...
It's a bit of a copout but I really have no idea what to make of him, or just how to see the difference between wolf euro and villager euro in general...
capibara: As I understand it this is another zombie case. Still not really convinced by zombie cases, they should be left to the GM and we should focus on people that we actually have reason to believe might be a baddie.
jeray: For lurking, pretty much just posting a short vote and then disappearing again. This is fairly similar to the case on ike, but I believe that Ike's involvement in the voteswitching(while still not giving any reasoning) makes him even worse. Still, @jeray2000 should start doing something remotely useful.
capage: votes against him seem to be based on a typo and a reasonless one-liner today. That really isn't a case at all.
arky/latinkaiser for their involvement in the switchings of yesterday. Fair enough, though these two seem to at least be contributing to the conversation and making some decent points so i personally don't think they're the best candidates to pursue today.
Could've missed some cases, I need a votecount so I know who was even voted for
Oh, and there's this, which I don't think is a good look for Claude at all. Especially since I did not see Claude's post today as a particularly impressive one.
Oh, I thought someone would ask. I wasn't particularly taken with the case on Chefjones yesterday. I know I think he's a wolf a lot and I'm at his throat half the games we play together, but how he's acted this game really doesn't strike me as particularly different. Voting Capage for a typo today is a disappointment though.
Comm Cody: 2
LatinKaiser [400 Sleepy -> 443 hdk -> 447]
aedan [338 Claude -> 451 CC]
Claude LC: 1
De Chat [355]
ramius: 1
Wagonlitz [301]
Wagonlitz: 1
Chefjones [288]
madchemist: 1
Cliges [315]
De Chatillon: 1
deathbywombat [319]
Emperor Ike: 1
Jopi [340]
AsdfeZxcas: 1
Eternaly_Lost [353]
Capage: 1
MAWofdoom [354]
Not Voted: 2
the_hdk*
Capibara*
Please take a look and make sure your vote is correctly counted. Who hangs today is obvious, but I want to make sure I didn't miss anything
other stuff
capibara: As I understand it this is another zombie case. Still not really convinced by zombie cases, they should be left to the GM and we should focus on people that we actually have reason to believe might be a baddie.
Not a bad summary post as far as things go, but one thing should be clarified. The issue, strictly speaking, isn't that capi is currently a zombie (btw, he did vote EURO round one).
Wolf/baddie play is determined by gaps. Dogs that don't bark in the night, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes. Who doesn't get mentioned in an otherwise sensible analysis post? Who doesn't receive attention for a lazy vote while another player gets jumped on?
Or, in this case, who doesn't receive pushback for cosplaying a zombie, when 3 other people (Comm Cody, HDK, Eusebio) were switched to on day 2 for essentially being zombies (Comm Cody/Eusebio didn't vote day 1, HDK didn't vote day 2)? Especially in a case where at least one of the leaders of the voteswitch (Panzer) was a wolf and thus had incentive to steer the lynch away from potential targets, that deserves examination.
Had the practice of chaotically switching votes en masse right before deadline not begun yet when you last played? (As for you, ramius, don't play village idiot - you know our customs!)
Probably not, though I remember snipes being a thing. That said, I expect people to have reasons for their votes and merely want to hear them. After all, there must have been some compelling reason for you all to switch to HDK at once, and then another equally compelling reason to switch again to Eusebio.
I've purposefully avoided posting today to observe the activities of Cliges. This time 24 hours ago me and him were just coming out of a fairly rapid exchange. He did not hold back in trying to accuse people. The moment there was a groundswell against him however, with others beyond myself calling him out for constant posts and incoherent arguments, both before and after yesterday's vote he shut up and has remained quiet throughout the day and has posted only once. Sure, this could be the activity of a very active villager, but the desperate need to accuse people he showed yesterday makes him extremely suspicious to me.
I think the only thing Cliges is guilty of is trying to steal Euro's schtick. I honestly don't have him pegged as a wolf at this point but I have no evidence to support that and could easily be wrong.
I noticed Euro responding to this, mocking the dead. I think that's one thing crossing the line of euro being a chaotic villager fishing for reactions. He haven't managed to get out of the shadow of his roleplaying and while I still like my previous vote, I think that killing Euro could help me to sort out some of my other leans.
I still think LatinKeiser is wolf, but Euro looks like a priority kill to me rn. I don't think he ever responded to pressure well with something else than jokes. UNVOTE LK VOTE EURO007
What bandwagon did I start yesterday? Eusebio was well ahead already when I switched my vote. My first vote was to for a 3-way tie to see what would happen. And then Chad Wolf started the process wich many joined before I did. I do still think that EUROO is not telling us everything and is playing us like an alcoholic drives a car.
So the HDK passed from having a few votes to prime suspect to having 2 votes in a lapse of 5 mins (more less I really didn’t check the time)
Then Eusebio in a lapse of 13 posts got 7 votes (8 with Alexu alderman) (if we put euros vote there it’s in 27 post something like that)
What is in my mind is. Ok, so people decided to do a vote switch but when the candidate getting the vote switch gets to many votes let’s switch to another one. And I wonder. That’s not the idea of a vote switch? To get a apecific
Also this. When he was the 3rd vote on HDK. So in that point of time he maybe though he wasn’t putting him on some kind of danger and then when thing go off to much he says the he gained so much attention and makes the change trying to Save him low key
And yes I know when a vote switch happens that fast also can mean wolves trying to make easy votes and hide between them. But the same happen to Eusebio.
And that’s why vote switch’s at my eyes are rarely useful.
HDK might be worth looking into later in the game
Madchemist decided to kill Hdk (because he was the one that proposed him). Then regrets it and votes Eusebio. And regrets it again and tries to change to com Cody I think.
euro decided from the beginning that Eusebio was the target.
So yes. I will be voting either one of them. Whoever gets more attention and votes.
For the time being
So at this point, Euro has the most voted, although at 4 votes with a large number of people not voting yet, I am sure that can/will change.
Rather then let the vote get away on Euro, I am going to push up someone to tie with him, and right now that can only be done by a vote on Cliges, sorry Cliges, but your the only one with enough votes to bring it to a TIE.
Ok, there's playing and there's stalking, and I feel this crosses the line.
But to return to your point, or more properly, your lack of one, if Iunderstand correctly, the issue is that I posted once since some arbitrary point in time? Maybe if you hadn't wasted time stalking me, you'd have a better idea. If your observations are only going to be about how often I post, I'll vary my posting rate just to annoy you.
Wolf/baddie play is determined by gaps. Dogs that don't bark in the night, to paraphrase Sherlock Holmes. Who doesn't get mentioned in an otherwise sensible analysis post? Who doesn't receive attention for a lazy vote while another player gets jumped on?