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Cliges

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I mean, at this point it's practically academic. But the remaining goodies are almost certainly the following (assuming wagon's count of 13 baddies is correct)

wagon
capage
cheiron
me

That leaves 2 person remaining who's a goodie: the GA (whoever he is), and one other person.

If I had to take a guess, gun to my head, who the two goodies out of this list are, I'd say LatinKaiser (not the GA, claimed priestly powers) and one of the following: Ike, Jopi, Ironhide, or Marco.
Cliges, Jeray, alynkio, Claude, and MAW are also very outside possibilities of being goodie.

2. Comm Cody subbed by alynkio
6. jeray2000
9. Audren
10. tamius23
14. MarcoRossolini
16. Cliges
18. Sleepyhead
20. LatinKaiser
24. Emperor Ike
25. Jacksonian Missionary
27. Jopi
30. Johho888
33. Claude LC
34. Ironhide G1
36. MAWofdoom


I'm practically 100% certain that jackson, johho, sleepy, tamius, and audren are all baddies of some stripe or another. For the little good it will do to know this

Asked LK, and to hear his specific reasoning as much as anything, but it least this is a list.

I’m fine with killing one of the likely baddies that you’ve listed, although I’m not getting as many baddie vibes from tamius or johho as I am from Sleepy and Jacksonian.


Notice that he's not giving up.


You're correct. There's absolutely nothing clearing me, especially after the Claude fiasco. Obviously, I can only speak from my perspective.

There's very little clearing anybody overall, especially as many days in as we are.

Ugh, so do all the packs have a hunter or something? I find it pretty game-breaking to give the bad guys unprotectable shots besides the brutals they ALSO presumably have. Now that the village practically has no chance to win this (unless there's a seer's apprentice running around?), I propose we just TIE a lot of people for greater amusement.


Vote johho888

Most of that sounds like giving up, and that's no good and no fun.
 

MarcoRossolini

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Oh, just found that Latin switched as I put up my post.

Erm.

Unvote Claude LC
Vote Sleepyhead
 

LatinKaiser

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Updated colored votecounts.

Final Day 1 Votecount:
nepechri: 6
Jopi [196]
deathbywombat [166 JM -> 201]
madchemist [178 aedan -> 208]
Chefjones [226]
alxeu [158 LK -> 248 aedan -> 267
EURO -> 272]
alxeu [alderman]

alxeu: 5
jeray2000 [159]
johho888 [168]
the_hdk [194]
Wagonlitz [198 hdk -> 253]
Audren [164 Cliges -> 220 hdk -> 261]

aedan: 4
Arkasas [173]
nepechri [188]
EURO [154 Wagonlitz -> 182 MC -> 228 Cliges -> 241]
Ramius [186 MC -> 244]

deathbywombat: 4
MAWofdoom [184]
Sleepyhead [195]
LatinKaiser [169 Wagonlitz -> 239]
AsdfeZxcas [177 tamius -> 200 jeray -> 237]

EURO: 3
Emperor Ike [161]
beartjah [171]
Capibara [187]

the_hdk: 2
Capage [175 EURO -> 197]
Panzer Commader [176 Capage -> 222]

madchemist: 2
Jacksonian Missionary [185]
De Chat [199]

jeray: 2
Cliges [163 alxeu -> 165]
Avernite [170]

Ironhide G1: 1
Eternaly_Lost [160]

Arkasas: 1
aedan [167]

Comm Cody: 1
tamius [174]

Eternaly_Lost: 1
MarcoRossolini [189]

Not Voted: 4
Comm Cody*
Claude LC*
Eusebio*
Ironhide G1*

Final Day 2 Votecount:
Eusebio: 9
EURO [287 Wagonlitz -> 303 Chef -> 364 Sleepy -> 405 Eusebio -> 416 Cliges -> 432]
Emperor Ike [412 Claude -> 446]
Panzer Commader [296 Chef -> 424 Eusebio -> 434 hdk -> 444 CC -> 449]
Arkasas [342 Claude -> 436 hdk -> 452]
madchemist [311 Claude -> 430 hdk -> 453]
Sleepyhead [339 EURO -> 419 Capage -> 440 hdk -> 457]
Jacksonian Missionary [290 Chef -> 433 hdk -> 458]
alxeu [316 ramius -> 389 unvote -> 423 Claude -> 437 hdk -> 459]
alxeu [alderman]

Sleepyhead: 4
beartjah [348]
Capage [344 Chef -> 358 CC -> 363]
AsdfeZxcas [312 wombat -> 387]
Audren [294 ramius -> 418]

Chefjones: 3
johho888 [297]
Comm Cody [331]
Avernite [298 Marco -> 367 EURO -> 396]

Cliges: 3
Ironhide G1 [317]
jeray [371]
Ramius [289 Wagon ->383]

EURO: 2
MarcoRossolini [330]
Eusebio [402]

hdk: 2
tamius23 [406 Sleepy -> 438]
Claude LC [357 Audren -> 442]

Comm Cody: 2
LatinKaiser [400 Sleepy -> 443 hdk -> 447]
aedan [338 Claude -> 451 CC]

Claude LC: 1
De Chat [355]

ramius: 1
Wagonlitz [301]

Wagonlitz: 1
Chefjones [288]

madchemist: 1
Cliges [315]

De Chatillon: 1
deathbywombat [319]

Emperor Ike: 1
Jopi [340]

AsdfeZxcas: 1
Eternaly_Lost [353]

Capage: 1
MAWofdoom [354]

Not Voted: 2
the_hdk*
Capibara*

Final Day 3 Votecount:

EURO: 9
Avernite [489]
Capage [480 LK -> 516]
Emperor Ike [517]
Claude LC [518]
Chieron2.0 [533]
beartjah [509 Ike -> 541]
ramius [484 LK -> 537 Cliges -> 588]
Chefjones [477 Capage -> 542 Cliges -> 596]
EURO [547 Capi -> 574 Ike -> Conmanned by Capage]
Emperor Ike: 8
Jopi [507]
madchemist [492 jeray -> 562]
aedan [565]
LatinKaiser [479 Capage -> 577]
Cliges [536 Capage -> 580]
Arkasas [586]
MAWofdoom [605]
Wagonlitz [529 Capage -> 613]

Cliges: 5
De Chat [476]
Ironhide G1 [497]
MarcoRossolini [505]
Eternaly_Lost [519]
Audren [526]

Chieron2.0: 2
deathbywombat [499]
tamius [540]

Capage: 1
Sleepyhead [524]

Arkasas: 1
johho888 [475]

Jacksonian Missionary: 1
AsdfeZxcas [498 MC -> 530]

Sleepyhead: 1
jeray [503]

Claude LC: 1
the_hdk [504]

Not Voted: 3
alxeu*
Comm Cody*
Jacksonian Missionary*
Day 4 Votecount: Pre-Outing
LatinKaiser: 4
johho [641]
deathbywombat [655]
ramius [657]
Wagonlitz [670]

Arkasas: 4
Avernite [644]
jeray [654]
LatinKaiser [678]
Jopi [681]

Wagonlitz: 3
Ironhide [646]
AsdfeZxcas [652]
Sleepy [668]

Jacksonian: 3
madchemist [661]
the_hdk [669]
alynkio [673]

MAWofdoom: 1
MarcoRossolini [666]

alynkio: 1
De Chat [674]

tamius: 1
Jacksonian Missionary [665 ramius -> 680]

Not Voted: 11

Final Day 4 Votecount:
Final Day 4 Votecount

Avernite: 23
Capage [692]
deathbywombat [655 LK -> 694]
Ironhide [646 Wagon -> 695]
johho [641 LK -> 696]
Emperor Ike [697]
Sleepy [668 Wagon -> 698]
MAWofdoom [687 Arkasas -> 699]
the_hdk [669 JM -> 689 LK -> 700]
alxeu [704]
alxeu [alderman]
Cliges [706]
Eternaly_Lost [708]
Jacksonian Missionary [665 ramius -> 680 tamius -> 710]
aedan [711]
Audren [712]
tamius [714]
AsdfeZxcas [652 Wagon -> 715]
Arkasas [720]
Chieron 2.0 [722]
LatinKaiser [678 Arkasas -> 724]
De Chat [674 alynkio -> 731]
alynkio [673 JM -> 732]
Claude LC [733]


Arkasas: 3
jeray [654]
Jopi [681]
madchemist [661 JM -> 734]

LatinKaiser: 2
ramius [657]
Wagonlitz [670]

MAWofdoom: 1
MarcoRossolini [666]

Capage: 1 0
Avernite [644 Arkasas -> 726]

Not Voted: 0!

Final Day 5 Votecount:
the_hdk: 8
tamius [835]
alynkio [833 jeray -> 859]
aedan [867]
Chieron 2.0 [746 Avernite -> 791 unvote -> 853 LK -> 865 unvote -> 870]
alxeu [877]
alxeu [alderman]
Emperor Ike [843 Jopi -> 892]
Wagonlitz [815 Marco -> 858 hdk -> 889 DC -> 894 jeray -> 927]

jeray: 6
deathbywombat [778]
Jacksonian Missionary [780]
Cliges [842]
ramius [775 LK -> 850 jeray -> 852 unvote -> 854 jeray -> 885 LK -> 904 unvote -> 908]
Jopi [813 DC -> 909]
Audren [816 tamius -> 829 jeray -> 866 DC -> 914 jeray -> 915 DC -> 926]

De Chat: 5
Sleepyhead [793]
johho [743 Avernite -> 794 unvote -> 824]
MAWofdoom [823 LK -> 875]
LatinKaiser [747 alxeu -> 812 jeray -> 890 DC -> 916 hdk -> 923]
Avernite [749 Capage -> 849 LK -> 913 jeray -> 924]

LatinKaiser: 4
jeray [763 Avernite -> 785]
De Chat [768 Avernite -> 806]
the_hdk [789 Avernite -> 792 Chieron -> 818]
AsdfeZxcas [767 Avernite -> 774 JM -> 846]

Avernite: 2
Ironhide G1 [742]
Eternaly_Lost [769]

Jopi: 1
MarcoRossolini [804 Avernite -> 814 LK -> 822]

Wagonlitz: 1
Claude LC [825]

Audren: 1
Capage [833]

Not Voted: 0

Final Day 6 Votecount
Eternaly_Lost: 6
Sleepy [988 Capage -> 993]
Chieron [1030]
Cliges (1039)
Ironhide (1043)
Tamius
Claude

Claude: 5
AsdfeZxcas [1008]
LatinKaiser [1011]
Johho
Wagon
MAW

Wagonlitz: 2
jeray2000 [983]
Eternaly_Lost [1031]

Jacksonian MIssionary: 2
De Chat [1001]
DeathByWombat (1035)

tamius: 2
Audren [962]
Jackson [999]

MAW: 1
alynkio

Johho: 1
Jopi [992 JM -> 1012]

Jopi: 1
MarcoRossolini [1027]

Not Voted: 2
Capage
Emperor Ike
How known baddies have voted:
EUROO7:
Day 1 (Wagonlitz -> MC -> Cliges -> aedan)
Day 2 (Wagonlitz -> Chef -> Sleepy -> Eusebio -> Cliges -> Eusebio)
Day 3 (Capi -> Ike -> EURO [Conmanned by Capage])

Panzer Commader:
Day 1 (Capage -> the_hdk)
Day 2 (Chef -> Eusebio -> hdk -> CC -> Eusebio)

Ramius:
Day 1 (MC -> aedan)
Day 2 (Wagon -> Cliges)
Day 3 (LK -> Cliges -> EURO)
Day 4 (LK)
Day 5 (LK -> jeray -> unvote -> jeray -> LK -> unvote -> jeray)

Avernite:
Day 1 (jeray)
Day 2 (Marco -> EURO -> ChefJones)
Day 3 (EURO)
Day 4 (Arkasas -> Capage)
Day 5 (Capage -> LK -> jeray -> De Chat)

Who has voted for known baddies?

EURO:
Day 1 (alxeu [moved off], Ike, beartjah, Capi, Capage [moved])
Day 2 (Sleepy [moved], Avernite [moved], Marco, Eusebio)
Day 3 (Avernite, Capage, Ike, Claude, Chieron2.0, beartjah, ramius, ChefJones)

Panzer Commader:
Day 1 (none)
Day 2 (none)

Ramius:
Day 1 (none)
Day 2 (alxeu [moved], Audren [moved], Wagon)
Day 3 (none)
Day 4 (Jacksonian [moved])
Day 5 (none)

Avernite:
Day 1 (none)
Day 2 (none)
Day 3 (none)
Day 4 (Capage, DBW, Ironhide, johho, Ike, Sleepy, MAW, hdk, alxeu, Cliges, E_L, Jacksonian, aedan, Audren, tamius, Asdfe, Arky, Chieron2.0, LK, De Chat, alynkio, Claude)
Day 5 (Chieron2.0 [moved], johho [moved], jeray [moved], De Chat [moved], hdk [moved], Asdfe [moved], Ironhide, E_L, Marco [moved]
 

Ironhide G1

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Oh gosh, we are in a bad position. :mad: I don't have time today to do a lengthy analysis but I think that wombat's list of almost certain baddies makes sense, at least to me. If I can find enough time to come back before deadline, I'll see what's developed. For now though, I picked one of the baddies who actually had a case made on him yesterday. This is just a placeholder vote.

Vote Johho888
 

Jacksonian Missionary

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Vote Sleepyhead
 

Audren

the Gravedigger
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Given how little attention Sleepy has gotten relative to most of the other people floated right now, I'm favoring him to be hung today. I'd be down for TIEing him with somebody like Ironhide or MAW, somebody who's gotten virtually no attention.

VOTE SLEEPYHEAD
 
2nd Day 7 Votecount

happycats517

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Day 7 Votecount: 1h 25m to deadline

Sleepyhead: 5
deathbywombat [1115]
LatinKaiser [1088 Claude -> 1118]
MarcoRossolini [1119 Claude -> 1122]
Jacksonian Missionary [1126]
Audren [1127]


johho888: 2
Jopi [1114]
Ironhide [1125]

LatinKaiser: 1
Sleepyhead [1100]

Jacksonian Missionary: 1
Cliges [1123]

Cliges: 1
Emperor Ike [1120]


Not Voted: 9
@Capage
@Claude LC
@Wagonlitz
@tamius23
@Chieron
alynkio
MAWofdoom
johho888
jeray2000
 

alynkio

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Wow, Sleepy got ran up quickly.

Unvote sleepy
Vote Johho888

This shouldn't bother you as have him down as a guaranteed baddie, remember? I've got Capage, Jopi, LK, Me, and probably Wagon down as goodies. I waver on who the final goodie is.

Everyone else needs to die. As we're past parity, we need to keep the wolfpacks in equilibrium and try to pick off any unaligned baddies. We should be going for TIEs. Sleepy/Johho works fine for me. Really think we should kill Jeray too, as I think he fits the profile of an unaligned baddie perfectly. Nothing suggesting he's part of any specific pack, pretty deliberately unhelpful so far.


VOTE JOHHO
 

MAWofdoom

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I think at this point we need a tie in order to have any sort of a chance. Johho is second so ill vote him. I think there's a much higher chance he's bad than not so we can at least give it a try.
Vote Johho888
 

johho888

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At this point I think we just have to try to survive and hope the pack intrafighting levels the playing field so we can make a comeback somehow. Sleepyhead (and me) could fit with any pack so we are not an unreasonable pair of frontrunners. OTOH the same could be said for LK, and Jacksonian (but not Cliges IIRC my post from yesterday correctly). That vote bandwagon on Sleepy could be baddies ganing up on the weaker pack? Obviously I know that lynching me would be bad, especially for me, so I prefer to:

vote Sleepyhead
 

Chieron

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Annoyingly, we really need to get rid of the cultists, who will hand over parity to any surviving pack. Killing just the wolves in a row would make the village lose just as well. Sigh, what a trainwreck.

Vote Sleepy

Plenty of time for someone else to move to restore the tie.
 
3rd Day 7 Votecount

happycats517

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Day 7 Votecount: 23m to deadline

Sleepyhead: 6
LatinKaiser [1088 Claude -> 1118]
MarcoRossolini [1119 Claude -> 1122]
Jacksonian Missionary [1126]
Audren [1127]
johho [1133]
Chieron [1138]


johho888: 5
Jopi [1114]
Ironhide [1125]
alynkio [1131]
MAWofdoom [1132]
deathbywombat [1115 Sleepy -> 1130 johho -> 1134 JM -> 1136]

LatinKaiser: 1
Sleepyhead [1100]

Jacksonian Missionary: 1
Cliges [1123]

Cliges: 1
Emperor Ike [1120]

Emperor Ike: 1
tamius [1137]


Not Voted: 4
@Capage
@Claude LC
@Wagonlitz
@jeray2000
 

LatinKaiser

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I looked back at Day 2, one of the most eventful days of the game, to see if anything stood out. Here's what I found:
So, my thoughts;
Claude: Why, just why? Day 2 is too early for a CAWZ, and if we are assuning inactivity = wolfishness..... I mean you’d think he at least remember to cast a placeholder vote. Wolves PM’s, which at least for me show up as emails on my phone, so you’d think it would be harder for a wolf to just outright forget (unless they slept through it, but any villager can do that.) I can barely follow his line of reasoning, but whatever, this seems like a lazy vote to pursue.
Ramius the Yellow calls into question the case against Claude, mostly on the grounds of "a wolf wouldn't do X," which is never that convincing, especially when it is applied to inactivity. Not a good look for Claude here.
Ramius the Yellow said:
Cliges: His reasoning is bizarre, barely coherent, and all over the place. And that’s without checking out his votes.
Ramius doesn't like what Cliges is up to.
Ramius the Yellow said:
Sleepyhead: this one caught my eye in particular, when Bear quoted all of his posts together (and Sleepy helpfully provided his own “defense”). Reasons without any reasoning, analysis without any analysis, alot of fluffy, useless posts.
Ramius also isn't impressed with Sleepy's behavior... but is he going to vote for him? Let's see...
Ramius the Yellow said:
I would be inclined to vote for Sleepy or Cliges atm without hesitation. Alas, I see that other villagers have beat me to the punch, with a budding wagon forming on Sleepy (possible attempt to divert away from Chef?), and that following up on either would just be following yet another Euro wagon. Which does nothing to help me avoid the noose.... but when have I ever been gravely concerned about that anyway?


UNVOTE WAGON
VOTE CLIGES
...nope! Ramius, despite his suspicions, decides that there is "a budding wagon forming on Sleepy" that might be an attempt to save Chefjones (who we now know flipped villager), so he votes... Cliges. Not Chefjones, the guy he thinks might be a baddie getting saved. This looks like a possible packmate covering for Sleepy, here -- offering up just enough analysis to look like a villager who sees the merits of the case (and can look a bit better if his mate is lynched), but inventing a creative excuse to avoid actually putting his mate in greater danger.
Sleepyhead: I think he's being voted for being more RP than content? But... that's sleepyhead in every game, at least this early. A completely random vote in my mind. Good Lynch Rating = 1.5/5
Panzer's possible defense of Claude came up the other day in the case against the Late Comer, but he gave Sleepyhead the exact same "Good Lynch Rating" of 1.5. He also doesn't address the actual case on Sleepy, which, while it wasn't that strong, was something beyond "being more RP than content." Even Ramius acknowledged that.
Day 2 Votecount: 1h to deadline

Chefjones: 5
Jacksonian Missionary [290]
Panzer Commader [296]
johho888 [297]
Comm Cody [331]
Avernite [298 Marco -> 367 EURO -> 396]

Claude LC: 4
madchemist [311]
aedan [338]
Arkasas [342]
De Chat [355]

Sleepyhead: 4
beartjah [348]
Capage [344 Chef -> 358 CC -> 363]
EURO [287 Wagonlitz -> 303 Chef -> 364]
AsdfeZxcas [312 wombat -> 387]


Cliges: 3
Ironhide G1 [317]
jeray [371]
Ramius [289 Wagon ->383]

EURO: 2
MarcoRossolini [330]
Sleepyhead [339]

ramius: 2
Audren [294]
Wagonlitz [301]

Wagonlitz: 1
Chefjones [288]

madchemist: 1
Cliges [315]

De Chatillon: 1
deathbywombat [319]

Emperor Ike: 1
Jopi [340]

AsdfeZxcas: 1
Eternaly_Lost [353]

Capage: 1
MAWofdoom [354]

Audren: 1
Claude LC [357]

Not Voted: 7

@Eusebio *
@tamius23
@LatinKaiser
Emperor Ike
the_hdk
Capibara
alxeu [316 ramius -> 389 unvote]
alxeu [alderman]
This was the count shortly after those posts from the yellow wolves. As you can see, Sleepy was definitely in danger here.
Vote Sleepyhead

to remake the tie.
Tamius votes Sleepy, tieing him for the lead with Chefjones. Probably not something a packmate would do, given the situation.
Well so tempted.......that I will just do it to make things interesting.

VOTE Claude LC
Ike expands the TIE. Could be a villager being silly, could be a packmate trying to draw pressure off Sleepy without exposing himself to backlash by voting for Chefjones.
Out of these leaders, I'm most compelled by Sleepyhead, since he hasn't been leading most of the day like chefjones.

UNVOTE RAMIUS
VOTE SLEEPYHEAD
Audren votes Sleepy. Again, not something a packmate would likely do here.
I explained why I think Chefjones is the best of the current candidates.

But maybe we need new ones?

Unvote Chefjones
Vote Eusebio
Panzer the Yellow decides to follow EURO the Red onto Eusebio and tries to start a voteswitch. Possiblly to save Sleepy? Or maybe Claude? After all, Panzer could have remade a TIE by voting for Claude.
Cody is a strong yes for me, as well as hdk. I am liking the way Panzer is thinking rn, tho
EURO the Red is up for lynching some other players not in the TIE.
Yeah I could easily do hdk or cody.
Panzer the Yellow is on board.
UNVOTE CLAUDE
VOTE Eusebio the Gonzo
Ike joins the Eusebio-wagon, taking more pressure off of Claude and Sleepy, who had been frontrunners until the Eusebio/HDK/Cody switches.