Werewolf CCXLI: It's not dead, it just left five years ago to get smokes. It'll come back, I swear.

johho888

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I've been thinking about the setup and things might not be so bleak as I thought yesterday, hence my apathic attitude to getting lynched. BTW thanks for picking Sleepy the wolf over me.

If I'm getting the numbers right from the Psychic report we now have 11 baddies and 6 goodies remaining. That doesn't sound too good, I know. But add to that the 6 dead badies (3 red, 2 yellow and 1 purple) and we get 17 starting baddies (or maybe 16 starting baddies if the sorc picked up an apprentice before the Psychic report). Given how 3 pack games are notoriously hard to balance, especially if there are too many baddies that can change packs, the most likely setup would be 3 packs of 4 wolves + 1 cultist (I would even have made that 5 wolves/pack but since we've seen a dead cultist and a dead priest, that is probably not the case here). Add to that a sorcerer and maybe a free cultist with some special capability for finding wolves, a spy, a liar or several seerish scans maybe.

How would that make things better, you might ask? Well, for one thing even for the strongest pack, the Purple, still need to kill off 2 yellow wolves and 2 red wolves. And they only get to hunt every third night so odds are the other packs will try to strike back at them. And maybe the wolves bump into an OEO, a blessed or a protector slowing things down further.

Unfortunately for us the first and only outed baddie, Avernite, was Purple so we must assume Purple is in contact with the sorcerer and any other unaligned baddie (free cultist or sorc apprentice).

Yesterday's voting and result cleared quite a lot of people from being Red but since they are not the priority (unless you are in Yellow or Purple pack) I won't show who I think are the last two Reds and why I think that. The baddies can do their own analysis for that. Posibly the protectors might want to do that as well?
 

Jopi

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So quiet here after all the excitement of yesterday? Good that we were able to hit a wolf, and the other wolves even helped us along, though I suppose the odds were starting be pretty good to pick one.

I was going over Audren's voting record, and they've been mostly voting either villagers or Reds. Thus, as Audren is quite unlikely affiliated with the Red pack,

Vote Audren
 

LatinKaiser

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At work atm, so I won’t be back online for the next few hours. For now, I’ll put a half-placeholder, half-real vote down on a player who fits well as an unaligned baddie.

Vote jeray
 

alynkio

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The only way the village survives this is by playing the packs against each other. The purples are the strongest pack right now with yesterday's red-massacre, so we need to really concentrate on them. Clearly the purples had a vested interest in killing Sleepy yesterday, thus I think we need to concentrate on the large number of people on Sleepy yesterday.

I'm still convinced Jeray is an unaligned baddie, and as such, definitely someone the village needs to kill. I think we should TIE IH and Jeray today.


VOTE IH
 

Ironhide G1

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So quiet here after all the excitement of yesterday?
Not all of us have infinite time to spend on Werewolf... I am very busy today, and I probably won't be around at deadline. With that being said, we have plenty of good cases to pick from. Audren and Jeray are our two best options, and I think I tie with them would be the best option for today.

Vote Jeray
 

Audren

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The only way the village survives this is by playing the packs against each other. The purples are the strongest pack right now with yesterday's red-massacre, so we need to really concentrate on them. Clearly the purples had a vested interest in killing Sleepy yesterday, thus I think we need to concentrate on the large number of people on Sleepy yesterday.

I'm still convinced Jeray is an unaligned baddie, and as such, definitely someone the village needs to kill. I think we should TIE IH and Jeray today.


VOTE IH

Why Ironhide specifically? I agree with you that Jeray is a good kill today, but I don't have a great feel on who else is the best fit for a TIE (besides obviously not myself).

VOTE JERAY
 

Cliges

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Not all of us have infinite time to spend on Werewol


None of us do, Ironhide. We're finite beings. We do what we can.


Jeray's Arkasas vote doesn't do any favors re: my persistent search to get to the bottom of the fake outing that absolutely no one wants to discuss.
 

johho888

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The only way the village survives this is by playing the packs against each other. The purples are the strongest pack right now with yesterday's red-massacre, so we need to really concentrate on them. Clearly the purples had a vested interest in killing Sleepy yesterday, thus I think we need to concentrate on the large number of people on Sleepy yesterday.

I'm still convinced Jeray is an unaligned baddie, and as such, definitely someone the village needs to kill. I think we should TIE IH and Jeray today.

VOTE IH
Purple isn't that much stronger than the rest, especially not red and yellow combined, and there were a few Sleepy voters that I consider likely goodies in there as well. I have three likely goodies on Sleepy and two on me.

Right now I'm actually fine with anyone except those five. It will be hard to tell if people are being pushed forward by purple/goodies or by some combination of yellow and red/goodies.

Jeray's Arkasas vote doesn't do any favors re: my persistent search to get to the bottom of the fake outing that absolutely no one wants to discuss.
I remember that, just before he got eaten. But the only one that even talked about that was you. And I backed off since I thought you accidentally spilled some JL beans in the thread. But I don't know how much of the JL of that time are still around. Maybe Capage? So how did you know about someone trying to fake out Arkasas. And was jeray in on that?

in the meantime

vote jeray2000
 

Chieron

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regarding IH: that final near-snipe with the long text doesn't look like a statement for a short break.

However the votes directly after this were also all over the place. It's not like the tie was anywhere near restored
(sleepy lead by +1 before IH's vote, after claude voted johho
IH switched from johho to sleepy (+2),
Jackson added to sleepy (+1),
Capage moved from sleepy to johho(-2),
DWB moved from johho to sleepy(+2),
sleepy tried to take johho with him (-1).

All within 60 seconds.
Those aren't all purple baddies.

VOTE JERAY
 

MarcoRossolini

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You're pushing an open door with me if you want Cliges lynched. That said, he's also an easy target, and the pile on shaping up on Jeray also leaves me cautious. For the moment, I'm going to put my vote on Cliges and keep an eye on how things proceed here.

VOTE Cliges
 

Cliges

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But the only one that even talked about that was you.

And there's no reason to drop the case (which one would think is kind of a big deal, given that it went against a known villager who was conveniently lynched by other, and also suspicious means) just because no one wants to discuss it.

Vote Jeray
 

Wagonlitz

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And was jeray in on that?
Really doubt that Jeray was in on it. Alxeu didn't really tell me to not have Jeray hung when I mentioned I didn't want jeray and LK hung (which was due to that spy report I got on MC's death).
He seemed to be indifferent to jeray dying or not, though he could have feigned things. But he did outright tell me in PM not to have de Chat hung, so him bing indifferent to jeray does suggest he wasn't affiliated with the JL.
 

Cliges

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Really doubt that Jeray was in on it. Alxeu didn't really tell me to not have Jeray hung when I mentioned I didn't want jeray and LK hung (which was due to that spy report I got on MC's death).
He seemed to be indifferent to jeray dying or not, though he could have feigned things. But he did outright tell me in PM not to have de Chat hung, so him bing indifferent to jeray does suggest he wasn't affiliated with the JL.

If the whole affair was a JL misstep, which seems unlikely to start with, the JL has had ample time to clarify about it.
 

Wagonlitz

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If the whole affair was a JL misstep, which seems unlikely to start with, the JL has had ample time to clarify about it.
I don't think there's any JL left.
Can't know for certain, but I don't think it ever was that large and once Alxeu died I think it crumbled. If it still exists then it can't be large and must be quite well hidden.
 

MAWofdoom

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0
73
I feel like we sort of need a tie since we didn’t get one yesterday because the baddies are very far ahead and we need to kill enough of them before only one pack is left since they get their own hunts. I’ll go for Audren since he’s second and also seems like a good possible unaffiliated wolf that won’t aid the wolves if he’s killed.
Vote Audren
 
2nd Day 8 Votecount

happycats517

GM of Stalingrads
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Day 8 Votecount: 1h 7m to deadline

jeray: 6
LatinKaiser [1184]
Ironhide [1188]
Audren [1189]
johho [1192]
Chieron [1193]
Cliges [1195]

Audren: 3
Capage [1181]
Jopi [1183]
MAWofdoom [1199]

Cliges: 2
Jacksonian Missionary [1172]
MarcoRossolini [1194]

Jacksonian Missionary: 1
deathbywombat [1185]

Ironhide: 1
alynkio [1187]

Not Voted: 4
@Wagonlitz
Emperor Ike
@tamius23

@jeray2000
 
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