Chapter 452: The Long War
After the capture of Zolton Huicton, the Reich established a military occupation run by the Coalition Provisional Authority, which later appointed and granted limited powers to a Mexican Interim Governing Council. In mid-2004, the direct rule of the CPA was ended, and a new "sovereign and independent" Interim Government of Mexico, headed by Tlatoani Axacaya Acatl of Aztlan, assumed the full responsibility and authority of the state. The CPA and the Governing Council were disbanded on June 28, 2004 after the UN Security Council passed a resolution to establish a new transitional government, still led by Axacaya Acatl.
Under this new transitional government, Mexico was divided into four zones of occupation. Mexico proper remained under coalition military occupation, with UN peacekeeping forces providing support and making sure coalition forces behaved itself (ironically, peacekeepers would ignore or even participate in some of the brutalities carried out by coalition forces). Mexico’s northern two altepetls bordering Fusang and Tejas were transferred to Tejan military occupation; subsequent plebiscites overseen by the UN would see the altepetls officially annexed by Tejas. A similar process occurred in Guatemala and the Yucatan, which were initially placed under Mayan military occupation and then annexed by Mayapan with UN approval. Finally, northwestern Mexico and much of the Pacific coast were placed under joint Fusang-Aztlan-Vietnamese-Ryukyuan military occupation, but no territories would be transferred. The coalition and the UN both agreed that the government of Aztlan would be gradually merged with the remaining Mexican government institutions, and Aztlan would become the legal diplomatic successor to Paulluist Mexico (after severing its last ties with Fusang and China, of course). The Acatl dynasty returned to power for the first time in almost eighty years. However, actual power would rest in the hands of Gebhard Remmele and Huicton Ollin, the two faces of the Roman military occupation and their Mexican collaborators.
(Aztlan was not immediately merged into Mexico because I was an idiot and forgot to include that in the event. I'll later have it annexed by console commands. Assume a similar transition process as like that in 1989.)
Coalition, United Nations, and allied Mexican forces fought a stronger-than-expected militant Mexican insurgency, and so the reconstruction of Mexico was slow. A number of factors played into the initial birth of the insurgency. Invading coalition forces were unable to immediately fill the power vacuum caused by the sudden collapse of a highly centralized state authority (even if it took eight months), resulting in weeks of virtual anarchy. The rampant looting, and the inability of coalition forces to control the situation, led to Mexican resentment. Another cause of resentment was the lack of immediate humanitarian aid and reconstruction efforts for Mexicans suffering from the invasion, the long-term effects of the repression and mismanagement of Zolton’s regime, and international sanctions. A number of factions felt suspicious of long-term Roman intentions; the disorderly conduct of some Roman soldiers also heightened tensions. The Anti-Paulluist Commission set up by the Coalition Provisional Authority, the nature of selection of the Governing Council, and other policy decisions were interpreted by Mexica Nahua as actions intended to single out their community for discrimination; this encouraged the beginnings of sectarian tensions.
Members of insurgent groups came from a variety of sources. Former members of the security services of Zolton’s regime, former military officers, and some other Aztlan Party members are cited as members of insurgent groups; indeed, these elements formed the primary backbone of the nascent insurgency. Initially, most former members of the Aztlan Party and former Mexican soldiers expressed a willingness to compromise with the Coalition forces. However, many lost their jobs and pensions when the Reich forcibly disbanded the Mexican army; this, and the unwillingness of the Coalition Provisional Authority to negotiate with former Aztlan elements, provided impetus for the initial insurgency (however, Huicton Ollin’s decision to side with coalition forces did keep many Mexican soldiers from defecting). Prisoners let out of prison by Zolton before his disappearance provided another source both of insurgent recruits and of organized crime factions.
Soon after the Mexican surrender, the Roman military noticed a gradually increasing flurry of attacks on Roman troops in various regions, especially in Tenochtitlan and in the regions around Oaxaca and Toluca. These consisted of small groups of suspected guerrillas firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades, in addition to using basic IEDs (Improvised Explosive Device) on Roman patrols and convoys. Tensions between Roman forces and residents of Tehuacan, outside Oaxaca, were especially severe, with crowd riots and small skirmishes commonplace.
In response, on December 9, the Roman military launched Operation Valley Strike, in which 2,000 soldiers swept into Oaxaca, detaining 397 Mexicans. Almost all of the detainees were later released, and the operation failed to stem the tide of the assaults. A series of similar operations were launched throughout the summer in the area, such as Operation Sidewinder, Operation Soda Volcano, and Operation Feathered Serpent. One, known as Operation Jungle Scorpion, succeeded in destroying an encampment of over 70 local fighters, possibly linked to Zolton’s militias, near the new Mayan border.
However, these initial counterinsurgency efforts failed to suppress the insurgency. The sweeps failed to stem the tide of the attacks, which during the spring of 2004 numbered about a dozen a day and resulted in, on average, 1 Roman soldier killed and 7 more wounded every day. The guerrillas began adopting new and more complex tactics, such as the planting of IEDs, the use of mortars, and better-planned ambushes. Although some humanitarian operations were included in what was intended to be a "carrot and stick" strategy, the cordon and search operations are widely criticized for being far too blunt and not carefully targeted. The large numbers of innocent Mexicans detained during the raids, the removal of palm trees and other foliage to deprive guerrillas of cover for ambushes (and which represented the livelihoods of many farmers) and the failure to restore basic services such as water and electricity to pre-war levels began increasing nationalist resistance and resulted in the disillusionment of the Mexican populace. In addition, as the spring neared its end, a series of suicide bombings began that suggested an increase in Mexicanist terrorist threats.
The UN headquarters in Tenochtitlan was attacked by af-Quetzalcoatl suicide bombers.
In February 2004, the intensity and pace of insurgent attacks began to increase. Finally, on March 6, a series of four simultaneous suicide car bomb attacks on the Mexican police and the International Red Cross, quickly followed by a sharp surge in guerrilla attacks, ushered in an insurgent effort that was termed the Tlacaxipehualiztli Offensive, as it coincided with the beginning of the Mexica month of Tlacaxipehualiztli (“Flaying of Men”), which was dedicated to the god Xipe Totec. Attacks were increased to nearly 50 a day, along with a series of helicopter shootings, resulted in a Roman death toll of 82 that month with 337 wounded.
In response, the coalition launched its counteroffensive known as Operation Iron Hammer (Fall Eisenhammer) in the second week of March. Operation Iron Hammer brought back the use of Roman air power for the first time since the end of the invasion, with suspected ambush sites and mortar launching positions struck from the air and with artillery fire. Surveillance of major routes, patrols, and raids on suspected insurgents were stepped up. In addition, two villages, including Zolton’s birthplace, were wrapped in barbed wire and carefully monitored. Following Operation Iron Hammer, the number of insurgent attacks dropped to an average of 18 a day.
Imperial Marines guard suspected Mexicanist terrorists prior to transfer to a secure holding facility.
The period from March to June 2004 marked a relative lull in guerrilla attacks. Although the guerrilla attacks were less intense, the "terrorist" offensive only increased. Hundreds of Mexican civilians and police were killed over this period in a series of massive bombings. These events marked the emergence of the organization then known Huitzilopochtli Xochiyaoyotl Atlapalli ([Militant] Wing for the Flower War [in the name of] Huitzilopochtli), led by Maxtla Zolin, to prominence as a major force within the insurgency. The HXA, composed both of foreign fighters from around North Eimerica and Mexicans, had a militant Mexicanist agenda.
Resistance to coalition forces would not for long be confined to the central regions of Mexico. Over this period, rural dissatisfaction with the occupation, especially among the urban poor, had been gradually increasing for some of the same reasons it had been among the townspeople: the perception that the coalition had failed to deliver on its promises and a nationalist dissatisfaction with foreign occupation. Many young men without jobs or prospects and who had lost faith with the promises of the Reich became drawn to religious radicalism, especially of the brand advocated by the cleric Itzcoatl Nehuatzin. Nehuatzin’s distinguished family background, and his fiery anti-occupation rhetoric and calls for the implementation of Colli law, caused him to emerge as the leader of this portion of Mexica society. After being rejected from a spot on the Governing Council, he created a militia known as the Xiuhmolpilli Army (XA), whose mission he said was to help keep order and cleanse Mexico of "evil." Since that point, the Reich had regarded him as a threat, but was divided on whether or not to proceed with a crackdown. Eventually, as Nehuatzin’s rhetoric heated and his militia paraded through Nochistlan in what seemed like a challenge to the Reich, they decided to begin to squeeze his movement. On March 29, they moved to close Nehuatzin’s newspaper and arrested one of his aides on murder charges. That, combined with his steadily decreasing political prospects for success within the Roman-backed interim government, pushed Nehuaztin to launch an armed revolt.
A roadside bombing carried out by the XA.
On April 4, the Xiuhmolpilli Army received orders to attack coalition targets and to seize control from the nascent Roman-trained Mexican security forces (which remained weak and disorganized even with Huicton Ollin in charge). The XA, which by then numbered from 3,000 to 10,000 men, organized quickly escalating violent riots and then a coordinated assault, surprising coalition and Mexican forces and seizing control of Oaxaca, Mazatlan, and Toluca and parts of Tenochtitlan and northern cities like Nochistlan, Tampico, and Zacatecas. A widespread collapse of Mexican security forces ensued, with most deserting or defecting to the rebels rather than fighting. Soon, combat erupted in many urban centers of southern and central portions of Mexico as Roman forces attempted to maintain control and prepared for a counteroffensive.
At the same time, the Mexica insurgency rapidly intensified. On March 31, four private military contractors working for the Roman military were killed and subsequently mutilated by insurgents and a crowd of residents in the city of Tehuacan outside Oaxaca, long a particularly troublesome center of Mexica resistance to the Roman presence. On the same day, 5 Roman soldiers were killed by a large IED on a road a few miles outside of the city. The attacks took place as the Imperials Marines took over responsibility Oaxaca from the Heer. The intended Marine strategy of patrols, less aggressive raids, humanitarian aid, and close cooperation with local leaders was quickly suspended and the General Staff decided that it was time for a major assault to clear the city of insurgents.
On April 4, Roman and Mexican forces launched Operation Vigilant Resolve to retake the city, which had clearly fallen completely into rebel hands. They met very stiff and well-organized resistance from the guerrillas. The insurgent force defending Tehuacan was believed to number over 2,000 men, divided into platoon-sized units. The guerrillas used sophisticated tactics not seen before in the Mexico war, using standard infantry tactics such as indirect fire support, cover fire, and phased withdrawal. It was noted to resemble a Chinese-style "defense-in-depth" strategy, suggesting guidance from former members of the Mexican Army rather than foreign terrorists who would more likely use tactics reminiscent of anti-equalist rebels in the CSSA/Eimerican Commune and use Soviet-made weapons raided from old PARA stockpiles. After three days of fighting with the Marines, the insurgents still held three-quarters of the city.
Cases of widespread reach and planning, suggesting national insurgent coordination, were noted. Hundreds of insurgents cut the road between Oaxaca and Tenochtitlan, while in Oaxaca proper over 150 insurgents launched an offensive against Imperial Marine positions. A similar attack followed, conducted by about 150 insurgents, against Marines near the new Tejas border. The assaults were beaten back, but the Roman toll from the attacks numbered in the dozens.
Political pressure began to build on the Reich and the Governing Council as the hospital of Tehuacan continued to report high numbers of civilian casualties, further inflaming the Mexican people and Cemanahuac in general. After two weeks of fighting, the Marines were on the verge of capturing, but had not yet taken central control of, the city. Pentagon leaders, fearing continuing the effort might further inflame a larger revolt against coalition authority, pulled back the forces. The Marines were ordered to stand-down and cordon off the city on April 30, where they would remain in a perimeter around the city for the following six months.
A compromise on April 30 was reached as part of a truce negotiation in order to ensure security within Tehuacan itself by creating the “Tehuacan Brigade", a unit that drew from former members of the Mexican Army, local volunteers, and even the insurgents themselves. This unit was to act under the control of the Coalition Provisional Authority, patrol alongside the Mexican Police and State Guardsmen but maintain its autonomy. The city remained under the control of insurgent and rebel forces. Reportedly, Nehuatzin’s organization was among the several that exercised some authority in the area.
By the end of the spring uprising, the Oaxaca region had been left under Mexica guerrilla control with Roman patrols in the cities ceased. The insurgency had undergone another major shift, as insurgent organizations now had safe havens in cities such as Tehuacan to develop and coordinate with each other. Nehuatzin’s group and its allies were in a period of uneasy cooperation with other insurgent groups dominated by nationalist agendas, although the groups increasingly came into competition for territory within Mexicanist-controlled areas.
On June 28, 2004, the occupation was formally ended by the coalition, which transferred power to a new Mexican government. With the situation in the south and north seemingly settled and the transfer of power, many hoped that the steam would be taken out of the ongoing Mexica insurgency. Although many Mexicans were optimistic about the government, militants saw it as little more than an Roman puppet and continued the fight unabated. On July 18, guerrillas offered a 285,000 mark reward for Huetlatoani Axacaya’s assassination and over a million marks for Huicton Ollin’s head.
Soon, however, the peace in the south would once again be broken. The Marines, having taken control from the Army of the area around Oaxaca, began to adopt a more aggressive posture with the XA and began patrolling zones previously considered off-limits. Soon, the XA declared the truce had been broken and launched an assault on a police station. Roman forces responded, and in the first week of August, a prolonged conflict broke out in Oaxaca. Heavy combat ensued in the Old City around the shrine and in a nearby cemetery, which was one of the largest cemeteries in the world. The terrain of the cemetery, densely packed with above-ground mausoleums and underground caves, favored the urban guerrilla warfare conducted by the XA. It was described by Roman soldiers as "jungle warfare without the jungle." Nevertheless, Roman forces continued a steady advance and inflicted heavy casualties on the XA, lightly wounding Nehuatzin himself.
Aftermath of the Battle of Oaxaca
Eventually, after three weeks of fighting, the XA was reduced to only a few hundred holding out within a temple to Xolotl. Although much of the fighting was conducted by Roman forces, it was anticipated that only Mexican forces would enter the temple. Negotiations with Nehuatzin were attempted but did not end the standoff. On August 25, the Mexica High Priesthood, which walked a thin line between moderates and the Mexicanists, arrived in Oaxaca to stop the bloodshed. By the next day, an agreement brokered by the priesthood seemed to come into force. Although the exact terms of the agreement were not clear, it required the XA to disarm and vacate Oaxaca and for Roman troops to withdraw from the city; these forces were to be replaced by interim government security forces. An interim government spokesman said Nehuatzin’s supporters could join the political process and Nehuatzin would remain free.
With the violent threat from Nehuatzin’s forces eliminated throughout most of Mexico, coalition forces and the Mexican government began turning their attention towards bringing under control the numerous Mexica guerrilla safe-havens that remained from the spring uprising. Officials from the coalition and Axacaya’s government began drawing up plans to retake guerrilla strongholds in advance of the Mexican examinations planned for January 2005. Many observers and coalition officials feared that by leaving swaths of territory under guerrilla control (and the populations living in those areas therefore unable to supply candidates and examiners), the legitimacy of the examinations would be compromised. The cities under the least firm guerrilla control would be taken first, with Oaxaca, the heart of the insurgency, waiting until after the Roman examinations.
Changes within the Mexica insurgency also took place over this period. The HXA, which changed its name to af-Quetzalcoatl in Central Mexico following a communique from Zolin declaring allegiance to Nochtli, aggressively sought leadership of the insurgency and asserted control over swathes of the countryside. The first of the offensives began on September 1, 2004, when Roman and Mexican forces besieged Nochistlan. Roman forces said that the town was being used as a transit point for the entry of foreign guerrillas of af-Quetzalcoatl and weapons from over the border. After a 12-day siege, the city was stormed and retaken by Roman and Mexican troops on September 12. At least 58 people were reported killed in the fighting.
The next stage of the offensive began on September 30, when 3,000 soldiers from the Roman 1st Infantry Division and 2,000 Mexican troops launched a surprise attack on guerrilla-controlled Zapopan. The insurgent hold on the city proved to be tenuous, and the rebel forces were quickly beaten back by Roman armor and air power. Rather than fighting, most of the guerrillas either fled the city or melted into the population. The General Staff estimated that 130 insurgents and 1 Roman soldier were killed, although residents reported that many civilians were among the dead. The operation was declared a success by the Roman military on October 4.
Destruction of an insurgent weapons cache.
The next phase began soon afterwards, on October 5, when 3,000 coalition and Mexican troops began a sweep against Mexicanist insurgents just south of Tenochtitlan, an area also known as the "Triangle of Death" for the amount of hostage-taking and guerrilla violence there. Once again, the insurgents, and surprisingly much of the civilian population, melted away before the offensive rather than fight, taking shelter nearby. Small-scale rebel harassment was reported, but not major fighting. As a result, the operation saw little success in netting rebel fighters.
At the same time, negotiations involving the Mexican interim government, tribal leaders, and XA officials successfully brought a resolution to the fighting in Oaxaca. A weapons handover was announced, and some weapons trickled into the Mexican police from Mexicanist rebels. Although the XA retained some of its weapons stockpiles, it was no longer an official active participant in the violent rebellion. Nehuatzin repeatedly signaled a desire to peacefully participate in examinations and repudiate the most extreme tenets of Mexicanism, though he did not compromise his strong anti-occupation stance.
This left the heart of the insurgency, Tehuacan, bracing for an attack. Large numbers of Roman Army troops and Marines massed in bases ringing the city, and most of the civilian population fled. To support the buildup, Indian forces deployed 850 men to the "triangle of death" south of Tenochtitlan in order to replace Roman troops heading for Tehuacan. The decision proved controversial in India, especially after the regiment suffered casualties from dogged attacks involving suicide bombers and roadside bombs.
The Roman and Mexican buildup around Tehuacan continued, and by the beginning of November, over 5,000 Roman and 1,000 Mexican troops surrounded the city. The Mexican troops were drawn from what were considered the most capable segments of the Mexican security forces and were mainly drawn from the Nahua heartland. On November 9, coinciding with the anniversary of the 11/9 attacks, the assault began in Operation Phantom Fury. Many guerrillas had apparently slipped out amongst the fleeing civilians, leaving a force of 5,000 still remaining in the city out of a force of what had grown to 10,000 insurgents. The vast majority of the civilian population by this time had fled, although thousands remained.
Roman artillery participating in Operation Phantom Fury.
A concentrated barrage of air strikes and artillery (including use of white phosphorus and napalm) began pounding the city. Simultaneously, Roman and Mexican forces advanced, primarily from the north, and quickly secured the city's main hospital, where rebels had reported high numbers of civilian deaths in April. Guerrilla resistance was initially reported to be less than expected, partially due to diversionary tactics and also because much of the insurgent force in Tehuacan had fled.
By November 10, Roman units had penetrated into the heart of the city. By now, they received stiff opposition from small groups of guerrillas, employing hit-and-run tactics, and snipers. Booby traps, rigged to destroy homes Roman troops had entered, also were encountered, including some even attached to corpses. Within a week, over 38 Roman troops had been killed and at least 275 wounded in the offensive. Insurgent losses during that same time period were believed to be much heavier, running into several hundred.
Gradually, Roman and Mexican forces pushed the main insurgent force into the southwest, carefully conducting house-to-house searches and securing areas of the city block by block. The Roman military adopted a "hammer and anvil" strategy, in which they hoped to methodically push the insurgents into the southwestern corner of the city and up against the open desert (where they would be without cover or concealment and open to a final rout by Roman firepower). Although they encountered great difficulties against the evasive guerrilla bands, the majority of the insurgents in the city had been killed or captured by late November. Significant guerrilla resistance, however, continued until January.
By the end of most of the fighting, over 50 Marines had been killed and several hundred wounded. As many as 3,000–4,000 insurgents may have been killed. Reports suggested a heavy toll among remaining civilians in the city as well. Most of the city suffered severe damage from the fighting by the battle's end. In the months to come, only a small fraction of refugees from the city would permanently return.
A Roman tank division patrolling the outskirts of Tenochtitlan.
The attack on Tehuacan had unintended consequences for much of the rest of Mexico. Insurgents fleeing Tehuacan filtered into neighboring provinces, Nochistlan in the north, and Tenochtitlan itself. As a result, a sharp spike of violence was seen upon the attack's commencement, with mortar and IED attacks increasing in frequency and intensity. The campaign of suicide bombings and car bombings, mainly affecting Mexican civilians, intensified to the worst point ever seen. The worst violence was seen in Nochistlan. Insurgents launched a massive offensive, seizing the western half of the city and effectively destroying the police force at the same time the Reich launched its assault on Tehuacan. On November 16, over 3,000 Roman troops and a similar number of Mexican troops launched a counteroffensive, dismantling insurgents from strategic points but failing to break their hold on most of the city.
Nochistlan, which a year earlier was relatively peaceful compared to much of Mexico, would be a scene of some of the heaviest sustained fighting for some time to come. In December, 14 Roman soldiers were killed and over a hundred injured when an explosion struck an open-tent mess hall where Schröder had displayed a Christmas tree the year before. It was one of the most costly attacks on Roman troops during the war.
With the year's end, the Roman military reported that they had killed or captured at least 15,000 guerrillas over the course of 2004, giving a new perspective on the intensity of the fighting during that period. 848 Roman soldiers were killed in 2004, and 9,034 were wounded in action. There are no exact figures, but thousands of Mexican security forces, as well as Mexican civilians, were killed as well, both in terrorist attacks and from Roman aerial bombardment and accidental shootings.
Soldiers of the new Mexican Army prepare to board a helicopter for a counterinsurgency mission in Tenochtitlan.
On January 31, 2005, the first Mexican examinations took place. Although no major cities were now under the control of rebels, the spike of increased guerrilla violence against Roman and Mexican forces continued into January. The focus of attention was now on the impending examinations. Many rebels became intent on disrupting the examinations, and conducted an intense campaign of assassinations and suicide bombings on Mexicans involved with them. 107 Roman soldiers were also killed in the month running up to the examinations. By now, Mexican police and security forces trained by the Reich began taking a more prominent role in many towns and cities of Mexico and bore the brunt of the violence. At least 109 Mexican troops and police were killed in January.
Despite the renewed insurgent effort, on January 31 the examinations proceeded as scheduled. With the heavy security presence on that day, guerrillas failed to successfully conduct any large attacks and the examinations were largely seen as a success. Following the examinations, insurgent attacks again declined and Roman casualty rates were reduced as negotiations went on to decide on the makeup of the new government. March saw one of the least deadly months of the war for the Reich, with only 38 Roman troops killed. At least 200 Mexican security forces were killed that month, however, as their more visible presence attracted the most attacks.
On February 4, the Bureau of Defense announced that 15,000 Roman troops whose tours of duty had been extended in order to provide examination security would be pulled out of Mexico by the next month. It was hoped to be the start of a gradual Roman withdrawal by many. This was also hoped by many to be the beginning of the end of the insurgency due to the renewed confidence in the elections, but this again proved untrue. Hopes for a quick end to an insurgency and a withdrawal of Roman troops where dashed in May, the war’s bloodiest month since the invasion. Suicide bombers, believed to be radical Mexicanist insurgents, tore through Mexico. As a result, over 700 Mexican civilians died in the month, as well as 80 Roman soldiers.
Once a new government was announced (an unlikely coalition between equalists, centrists, and moderate conservatives), the insurgency began a major offensive against civilian targets across Mexico for the next several months, killing thousands of civilians. This was considered by analysts to be a direct challenge to the authority of the Mexican government, and although the Roman and Mexican armies attempted to quell the violence using large-scale, house-to-house operations in Tenochtitlan and elsewhere, the bombings were only temporarily halted while the insurgency regrouped and planned a new offensive.
In the Reich, 54% of Romans in July 2004, at the opening of national examinations, believed the invasion was justified. However, the months of the 2005 examination campaign proved pivotal in changing public opinion toward the war. Opinion began dropping in relation to major events such as reports of atrocities being carried out by Roman troops against suspected Mexicanist terrorists in a prison in Tenochtitlan and a report by Die Zeiten alleging there were no weapons of mass destruction in Mexico after all. This reflected ominously on the SPR during that year’s Reichsrat examinations. Schröder’s party dropped to 42.44% control of the upper house, a two percent drop from last year. Schröder’s approval ratings remained stable at around 60%. A similar situation unfolded with Chancellor Chen Shui-bian in China, who was running for reelection that year. Chen’s approval ratings had already dropped significantly due to a combination of domestic issues and fraying relations with Fusang and Penglai over Mexico (Fusang and Penglai wanted more aid to be sent to the Romans). On March 19, the day before polls opened, Chen was shot in the stomach, and his vice-chancellor was shot in the leg. The assailant was immediately killed. Chen and his vice-chancellor made a speedy recovery but went on to win the election by only 300,000 votes. The assassination attempt only gave Chen another hit to his approval ratings, as many believed he had staged the assassination to gather sympathy and boost his reelection chances.
In the spring of 2004, after major combat ended but Roman troops continued to take casualties, Schröder’s numbers began to wane. The period from November 2003 to October 2004 saw public opinion on the war vary noticeably. Public support went “from a high of more than 55% in mid-December immediately after the capture of Zolton Huicton, to a low of 39% in mid to late June just before the Reich transferred power to the newly formed Mexican government.” The most notable change occurred in the last week of March, when there was an 11-point drop. This was the week of the 11/9 commission hearings, which heavily criticized Schröder. After this, the general trend of public approval was downward. By the time examinations were opened on July 1, Schröder’s chances of reappointment were in trouble.
However, he was at least relieved other parties ran into trouble too. The KRA, being the KRA, was hit by another convenient scandal involving goods smuggling, point buying, and embezzling of taxpayer money. The CMU, CSU, and Hohenzollern Faction were divided over who would lead the conservative parties. Eventually, the two parties nominated CMU leader Angela Merkel, Kohl’s former protege, while the Hohenzollern Faction would be the coalition leader.
Angela Merkel
Rallying around the first woman to be nominated for chancellor by a major party, the CMU/HF alliance presented a platform emphasizing “holistic” economic deregulation, cuts to the military, and job creation (particularly in the former Occupied Territories). The KRA campaign was dead on arrival as usual, leaving the main competition between Merkel and Schröder, although candidates and organizations aligned with the religious right mounted a far greater challenge to the established parties than expected.
Early polls during the summer from 6 reputable polling organizations showed a solid lead for the CMU/HF coalition. However, in early August support for Merkel declined considerably. Reasons for this included conflicts between the conservative parties (the CMU/CSU and the HF) and embarrassing gaffes. At one point the media criticized Merkel for confusing net and gross income figures during a campaign speech and taking off time in October to attend the delayed Olympics in Scandinavia (where both Japans and Nusantaras did well). Following this, polls suggested Merkel and the conservatives would net less than a majority of points. Further damage occurred when two CMU/CSU candidates, Jörg Schönbohm and the CSU leader Edmund Stoiber, made insulting remarks about the former Occupied Territories and Sumatra, the latter of which had taken the brunt of a massive Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami. These remarks not only alienated potential examiners in the former Occupied Territories and overseas but also made some question the conservatives’ confidence in Merkel, as she herself grew up in the former Occupied Territories and was a quarter Polish.
However, polls carried out by Die Zeiten in late August showed the CDU/CSU/HF bloc back up at 51% of points, with the number of points for Merkel herself at 55%. Predictions suggested Schröder’s coalition would win a combined total of only 46% and would need to negotiate with a party on the left. The leaders of the SPR and the Greens, Schröder and Fischer, said they opposed the idea of a "red-red-green" coalition.
On September 4, Schröder and Merkel met in a head-to-head debate which was broadcast by all of the Reich’s major television networks. The debate focused on the insurgency in Mexico, gerrymandering of examination districts, and the Reich’s religious policy. Although most commentators gave the initial edge to Merkel, polls soon showed the general public disagreed and ranked Schröder the clear winner. Schröder’s promises to resolve gerrymandering by having examination districts be drawn by neutral computer programs and to maintain the current religious policy of secularism earned him praise from both the audience and moderators. Later analysis suggested Merkel's support for a flat-tax proposal further undermined her credibility on economic affairs and gave the impression the CMU’s economic reforms would only benefit the very rich.
Midweek polls showed the SPR clawing their way upwards by a few percentage points although the combined CMU/HF points tended to remain 1 to 2 percent ahead of those for the left-wing parties combined. On the eve of the examination, the CMU enjoyed a 9% lead over the SPR, albeit with neither party likely to have enough seats to form a government. Merkel's personal popularity had climbed back up to 40%, from a low of 30% while Schröder's had reached a peak of 53%. However, polls also showed that even at this late stage, a quarter of examiners had not yet decided how to cast points and that these undecided examiners could decide the final result. With polls still so close, the parties broke with tradition and continued campaigning throughout all holidays, including the day Kaiser Karl I was beatified, and on the Saturday before the examination and on examination day itself.
(Ignore missed reference to pope)
Examiners began casting their points on December 26. Soon after the last points were counted on December 31 and the results were compiled, it became clear that in terms of the parties alone the SPR had narrowly edged out the CMU. The Hohenzollern Faction and CMU each received 13% of points, while the SPR received 16%. The SPR won the most points of any single party, but as in 1995, right-leaning parties had collectively won 53% of points, and the Bureau of Qualifications announced the CMU/HF coalition as the winners. Schröder and the SPR immediately demanded a recount. A recount was held in the first week of January, and the Bureau’s decision stood: the CMU won.
In the Reichsrat, left-leaning parties suffered a devastating defeat, with the KRA losing 13%, the progressives 6%, and social meritocrats 4%. Most of the senators forced out of office were replaced with CMU candidates, propelling the CMU’s numbers from 9% to 39%. However, in both houses, the conservatives had barely gained a majority and would be forced to rely on the support of the religious right and the ultra-nationalists to pass legislation. The CMU was thus put between a rock and a hard place. They could either keep the SPR in the government, risking a public backlash due to Schröder’s role in the Mexico war, or replace them with the traditionalists and nationalists, which would set a dangerous precedent. Coalition talks dragged on for weeks. With February 2 fast approaching, the CMU and HF narrowly agreed to keep the SPR in the grand coalition. The SPR agreed, marginalizing the far right. Merkel would become the first female chancellor of the Reich, though this achievement was mostly forgotten because her disapproval ratings were already unnaturally high for an incoming chancellor.
In her inauguration speech on February 2, Merkel outlined her new administration’s platform. Taxes would be lowered on all citizens, especially the lower class, and employee rights would remain protected as under the SPR. She would maintain strong diplomatic and economic ties with Russia and Scandinavia, including helping the former get out of its tenth bankruptcy. The Reich would also wind down its intervention in Mexico, bring its troops home, and help the Mexican people transition to meritocracy. The main goal of her administration, though, would be to reduce unemployment and keep it down.
The year got off to a good start. In April and May, the Reich celebrated the 900th anniversary of restoration with triumphs and parades in most major cities starting with a Restoration Day triumph in Constantinople on April 3, and in June Merkel announced she had approved funding to demolish the Palace of the Republic and rebuild Brandenburg Palace, although news agencies criticized the appropriateness of such celebrations and financial priorities in light of the Mexico insurgency and Russia’s bankruptcy. Furthermore, numerous Berliner organizations objected to demolishing the Palace of the Republic, arguing despite its history and how everybody hated it, it was part of Berlin’s culture. Merkel would receive more criticism after af-Quetzalcoatl carried out a bombing in Vienna on July 7. The demolition of the Palace of the Republic, though, proceeded as scheduled, and the scrap metal was donated toward building the new One World Trade Center.
The interior of the abandoned Palace of the Republic in 2003, after all asbestos furnishings were removed.
The demolition of the Palace of the Republic was carried out with surprisingly little fanfare or celebration.
The new Brandenburg Palace under construction, scheduled to complete in 2016.
Like her predecessor, Merkel would also see her party’s position in the Reichsrat drop slightly, although the SPR suffered worse. Polls at the top of 2006 showed that Romans had started turning to the FMP as an alternative to the CMU and SPR, which they saw as having gotten the Reich into an unpopular war and not doing enough to benefit the common citizen. However, this trend would not last. By the end of the year, many of those Romans would turn to parties outside the five mainstream ones (counting the CMU, CSU, and HF as one party), especially the traditionalists and nationalists Merkel marginalized.
With much criticism, Merkel continued the Schröder Doctrine in North Eimerica. She deployed troops and ordered airstrikes in the Duchy of Creek after intelligence agencies warned an equalist coup was imminent. The intervention resulted in the deaths of 125 Roman soldiers and inflamed North Eimerican resentment at Roman intervention, fueling the spread of the radical Mexicanist Colli movement. With the equalists crushed, many in Creek embraced Collism as an alternative to both godless equalism and heavy-handed Roman interventionism.
China’s government didn’t fare much better that year. As the Chinese and Vietnamese militaries worked to prop up the Laotian government against Paulluist rebels, Chen Shui-bian was beset with scandals on all sides, threatening to derail his administration. In May, his son-in-law Zhao Jian-ming and wife Wu Shu-Chen were both accused of insider trading and embezzlement by the opposition Guomindang Party. Two months later, Chen himself was also accused by the Guomindang of embezzling 10.2 million yuan from the treasury. In a related incident, Chen also lost a libel lawsuit and was forced to pay three million yuan. Finally, on November 3, Wu and three cabinet officials were indicted on corruption charges.
Due to a clause in the constitution, Chen himself could not be indicted or prosecuted as well, but the prosecutor made it clear he would press charges immediately after Chen left office. The Guomindang and other opposition parties called for Chen to resign. When he would not, they launched a confidence vote, but that also failed. Two days later, Chen denied the charges of corruption and claimed the “missing” money had been properly spent with a traceable paper trail. He denounced the Guomindang for spreading “slander” about his wife and cabinet, alleging it was a political stunt to end almost two decades of continuous Fuxingyundong power. However, he also conceded if the charges against his wife were proven in a court of law, he would resign. By now, leaders within Chen’s own Fuxingyundong Party also saw Chen as a liability, fearing he would negatively impact their chances in the 2008 election. They demanded he resign before the next election and let his vice chancellor succeed him. Chen refused. The stage was thus set for a contentious election in two years and the possibility of a Chinese chancellor being indicted.
Back in Europe, despite providing millions of marks in relief, Russia’s economy remained stagnant and sluggish, and its stock markets finally crashed in January 2007, leading the government to declare bankruptcy an eleventh time. The KRA and FMP decided to capitalize on the wave of discontent against the grand coalition to announce they would be no longer compete with the Greens and other left-wing parties in examinations, uniting the left under a coalition called the Liberal Progressive Alliance (LPA), led by the KRA. The new faction did well in the 2007 Reichsrat examinations, where the CMU and SPR both lost 2%.
The formation of the LPA caused shockwaves through the political establishment, as many feared the united liberals and progressives could seriously threaten the weakened grand coalition’s examination chances in 2010. The leadership of the SPR met with leaders from the PMS and Schweinfurt Faction, proposing a similar alliance of the social meritocratic left to combat the KRA and reinforce Merkel’s grand coalition. On July 1, the social meritocratic parties announced they would also caucus with each other as the Social Meritocratic Union (SMU) under the leadership of the SPR. Offers to joint were extended to the few Greens who refused to join the KRA and FMP. However, these Greens also refused to join and instead formed Die Linke, an alternative to the two super-blocs. Despite their desire to remain independent, Die Linke quickly fell apart and on February 2 was absorbed into the SPR. The SPR’s leadership was also disappointed when the yearly examinations for Reichsrat came and the social meritocrats lost the same number of seats. Furthermore, the marginalization of the far and religious right led to its factions uniting under a single party, Politische Christlicher.
Merkel’s troubles, though, were just beginning. In 2007, the Roman housing bubble, which had been building since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, finally burst, caused by the economic instability resulting from Russia’s recent bankruptcy. Easy availability of credit in the Reich, combined with large amounts of foreign funding following the 1997 crisis, led to a housing construction boom. However, the roots of the coming crisis went back much further than 1997. In the 1970s, economic deregulation gained popularity on both the left and right due to the findings of the Stuttgart School of Economics. Two leading 'think tanks' in Constantinople, the Somers Institution and the Roman Enterprise Institute, were active in holding seminars and publishing studies advocating deregulatory initiatives throughout the 1970s and 1980s. Economist Alfred E. Kahn played a central role in both theorizing and participating in the Schmidt administration's efforts to deregulate transportation. Initially, deregulation was held back due to being associated with the Scheel administration, and most of the Schmidt administration’s policies were interrupted by Roland Wilson’s unexpected rise and the outbreak of World War III. Following the war, Helmut Kohl kept the CMU’s libertarian wing in check by allowing them free rein to deregulate state-run industries in the former Occupied Territories. As the 1997 crisis rippled out from Southeast Asia, the CMU/HF libertarians formed a partnership with KRA classic liberals and the economic nationalist wing of the SPR. With their influence unable to be kept in check any longer, Kohl struck a compromise. The CMU and SPR governments of Kohl and Schröder developed a program of what was called “better regulation,” which ostensibly remained pro-regulation. Behind the scenes, this included a program for government bureaus to review, simplify, or abolish existing regulations and take a “one in one out” approach to new regulations. To weather the storm from the 1997 crisis, the Bureau of Finances applied this program to the Imperial Bank of Rome and “freed” it from direct government control. This removed the power by the Imperial Bank and therefore the government to control the financial activities of lower banks. In 2006, with the deregulatory wings of the CMU and SPR ascendant, new primary legislation was introduced to establish statutory principles and code of practice. It permitted ministers to deal with older laws they deemed to be out of date, obscure or irrelevant. This act was often criticized and called the “Abolition of the Diet Act.”
The Kohl, Schröder, and Merkel administrations did not privatize many publicly owned services because most had already been privatized under Schmidt and Wilson. A great deal of infrastructure and maintenance work previously carried out by government bureaus was contracted out (out-sourced) to private enterprise under the public–private partnership, with competitive bidding for contracts within a regulatory framework. This included large projects such as building new hospitals for the Imperial Health Service, building new public schools, and maintaining the Constantinople and Vienna Undergrounds. These privatizations were never offered to the general public to buy shares.
With this policy in mind, the Merkel administration moved to deregulate certain sectors of the financial industry, particularly the major banks. This resulted in less oversight and disclosure of information from banks and other major financial institutions. Lax regulations allowed predatory lending in the private sector, especially after the government overrode anti-predatory laws passed by the SPR (spearheaded by the KRA at the local levels). The CMU passed a law to help low- and middle-income families get mortgages. Under the current financial environment, the resulting Community Reinvestment Act encouraged banks to grant mortgages to higher-risk families. Low interest rates encouraged more mortgage lending. Many of these mortgages were bundled together and formed into new financial instruments called mortgage-backed securities in a process called securitization. These bundles were sold as allegedly low-risk securities because they were often backed by credit default swaps insurance. Because mortgage lenders could pass these mortgages and the associated risks on in this way, they could and did adopt loose underwriting criteria due in part to outdated and lax regulation. Furthermore, many high risk loans were bundled, sold, and finally accrued to government-sponsored private corporations. The implicit guarantee by the Roman government contributed to a glut of risky lending.
High mortgage approval rates led to a large pool of homebuyers, which drove up housing prices. This appreciation in value led large numbers of homeowners (low and high risk alike) to borrow against their homes as an apparent windfall. This "bubble" would be burst by a rising single-family residential mortgages delinquency rate beginning in August 2006. The high delinquency rates led to a rapid devaluation of financial instruments. As the value of these assets plummeted, the market for these securities evaporated and banks who were heavily invested in these assets experienced a liquidity crisis.
In September 2008, government-sponsored financial firms were nationalized to keep them afloat. The eight largest banks and financial institutions, among them Bavarian-based Loeb Brothers, filed for bankruptcy, and a ninth was on the verge of doing the same before the Diet authorized a controversial 85 billion mark bailout. The bailout, which was followed by several others from the Diet and other governments, likely saved the world financial system from a complete meltdown and economic depression worse than 1929. In spite of trillions paid out by the Reich alone, it became much more difficult to borrow money. The resulting decrease in buyers caused housing prices to plummet. The bailout itself, despite its apparent success, was criticized across the political spectrum. Politicians on the right and corporate executives felt the bailout was either not enough or unnecessary. Left-leaning politicians and citizens argued the bailout protected corporations and didn’t do enough to help the common citizen. Many low-income families were hit hard by the bankruptcies, many losing their homes and jobs, and many bankers were forced out of their jobs. Not a single corporate executive was ever penalized. Many cashed out their stocks and cut their ties loose with minimal losses.
The crisis rapidly developed and spread into a global economic shock, resulting in a number of Eurasian bank failures, declines in various stock indexes, and large reductions in the market value of equities and commodities. The de-leveraging of financial institutions, as assets were sold to pay back obligations that could not be refinanced in frozen credit markets, further accelerated the solvency crisis and caused a decrease in international trade. World leaders, ministers of finance, and central bank directors coordinated their efforts to reduce fears, but the crisis continued. At the end of October 2008, a currency crisis developed, with investors transferring vast capital resources into stronger currencies such as the Scandinavian kroner, the Chinese yuan, the Roman mark, and the Indian rupee, leading many emergent economies to seek aid from the International Monetary Fund.
Several commentators suggested if the liquidity crisis continued, an extended recession or worse could occur. The continuing development of the crisis had prompted fears of an impending global economic collapse which was barely averted by the bailouts. On October 6, the investment bank UBS used the word nobody wanted to hear: recession. The year would see a clear global recession, with recovery unlikely for at least two years. Three days later, UBS economists announced the "beginning of the end" of the crisis had begun, with the world starting to make the necessary actions to fix the crisis: capital injection by governments; injection made systemically; interest rate cuts to help borrowers. India had started systemic injection, and the world's central banks were now cutting interest rates. UBS emphasized the the Reich needed to implement systemic injection. UBS further emphasized that this fixes only the financial crisis, but that in economic terms "the worst is still to come". UBS quantified their expected recession durations on October 16: China’s would last two quarters, the Reich’s would last three quarters, and India’s would last four quarters. A related economic crisis in Scandinavia and Kanata involved both countries’ major banks. Relative to the size of their economies, Kanata and Scandinavia’s banking collapse were the largest suffered by any country up to that point.
At the end of October, UBS revised its outlook downwards: the forthcoming recession would be the worst since the early 1980s recession with negative 2009 growth for the Reich, China, and India, very limited recovery in 2010, but not as bad as the Great Depression.
The output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the Reich decreased at an annual rate of approximately 6% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and first quarter of 2009, versus activity in the year-ago periods. The Roman unemployment rate increased to 10.1% by October 2009, the highest rate since before World War III and over ten times the pre-crisis rate. The average hours per work week declined to 33, the lowest level since the government began collecting data in 1964. With decline of gross domestic product came decline in innovation. With fewer resources to risk in creative destruction, the number of patent applications flatlined. Compared to the previous 5 years of exponential increases in patent application, this stagnation correlates to the similar drop in GDP during the same time period.
Typical Roman families did not fare as well, nor did those "wealthy-but-not wealthiest" families just beneath the pyramid's top. On the other hand, half of the poorest families did not have wealth declines at all during the crisis. The Bureau of Finances surveyed 4,000 households between 2007 and 2009, and found that the total wealth of 63 percent of all Romans declined in that period. 77 percent of the richest families had a decrease in total wealth, while only 50 percent of those on the bottom of the pyramid suffered a decrease. A 2015 study commissioned by the Imperial Agency for the Protection of Civil Liberties found German and Greek home-owning households recovered from the financial crisis faster than non-German and non-Greek home-owning households, and projected the financial crisis will likely widen the majority-minority wealth gap in the Reich.
Although the financial crisis had shaken almost every industrialized nation and nearly destroyed the world financial system, the countries of the world still got together for the Olympics, which were hosted in the newly meritocratic Lenape, whose financial institutions had survived the crisis mostly intact (owing to the fact that they had been set up just a few years ago). However, because of security concerns in eastern North Eimerica, the games were delayed until November. The Reich won the most medals and gold, as always. Countries doing better than expected included Yogyakarta, Persia, Nepal, Imperial Japan, Ainu Mosir, and Livonia. The next Olympics would be hosted in Nanjing, China.
Chen, however, would not be around to host the 2012 Olympics. In the summer of 2007, the Guomindang and other opposition groups began the impeachment process against Chen. The motion failed to pass, even with all non-Fuxingyundong legislators voting in favor, as the Fuxingyundong controlled just enough seats to deny the other parties a collective supermajority. Fuxingyundong legislators, though, all abstained.
By now, Chen’s approval rating had dropped to under 6%. Fuxingyundong Party Chairman Shi Mingde himself denounced the chancellor, calling him a “disgrace” to the nation. He organized a campaign called the “Billion Voices Against Corruption (Chancellor Chen Must Go!).” Within a week, the campaign had collected over a hundred million signatures, each with a donation of ten yuan. Over the next several weeks, millions of Chinese flooded the streets of Nanjing and other major cities, all wearing red and calling for Chen to immediately resign.
As predicted, the 2008 elections were a complete rout for the Fuxingyundong, which won only 38% of the vote. The Guomindang and its allied parties won 56% of the vote and a 75% majority in the Legislative Yuan. Chen himself wasn’t on the ballot, as the Fuxingyundong leadership forced him to not seek reelection. His successor was still crushed in the election, with the Guomindang candidate, Ma Yingjiu. Ironically, Ma was also accused of corruption regarding the use of taxpayer money while he was mayor of Hong Kong. The charges were later dropped. Chen didn’t get off so lucky. As expected, he was immediately charged with corruption and then convicted on all counts. He was sentenced to ten years in prison. All major political parties, including the Fuxingyundong, indicated they respected the court's decision.
Meanwhile, the CMU and the SPR entered 2009 in relatively good shape, with neither party suffering any losses in seats. But Chancellor Merkel began preparing for the worst in the upcoming examinations. To stave off the super-blocs led by the KRA and SPR, the conservatives also united into their own super-bloc, the Christian Social Meritocratic Coalition (CSK) led by the CMU, so they would no longer split their points. A group of CMU and HF politicians, though, refused to accept the merger and instead broke off into their own conservative party, Freie Waehler, although they were expected to return to the fold soon.
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Flight 627, en route from Mumbai to Strasburg - January 5, 2009, 7:00 PM
The seatbelt sign chimed on.
“The Captain has turned on the fasten seatbelts sign,” an announcement said, “Please make sure your seatbelts are securely fastened.”
“Main philm jaaree rakhana chaahata hoon,” an Indian woman complained, “Mujhe aayaran main pasand hai.”
“I don't speak Hindi,” the man next to her said, “I’m from Zurich.”
The plane shook. Morgan Steig, a nervous-looking man in a business suit, cradled his head in his hands. He took out an insulin pen and injected himself with it.
“We are flying through strong turbulence,” the captain said, “Please return to your seats.”
“Hey, friend,” the man next to Morgan said, “It's just an electrical storm.”
“I understand,” Morgan said.
The man held out a stick of gum. “Want one?”
“I’m good,” Morgan said.
He took a few more breaths. Then he unfastened his seatbelt and walked up the aisle. A flight attendant immediately ran after him.
“Sir, you must sit down!” she said. “Calm down! Please go back to your seat!”
She reached Morgan, who turned around with a look of horror on his face, or what was left of it. It was decaying rapidly. Unable to control himself, he vomited on the attendant, who screamed. Everybody else started screaming, because their flesh was also decaying.
Another flight attendant picked up the phone. “Captain, we have a difficult situation!”
The copilot opened the door and looked into the cabin.
“What the frak?” he said.
The pilot turned on the autopilot and turned to the copilot. “What the frak is going on?”
The copilot didn’t answer him.
“Why don’t you answer me?” the pilot said. “Talk to me!”
The copilot turned around, revealing his face was also decaying. Actually, only his head turned, as it was falling off his neck. The flesh on the bottom of his face dissolved, and his jaw fell off.
