The time is short before Arabia breaks Iberia. I would fear if I were Estonia indeed.
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How easy will it be for Arabia to maintain control of Persia? It seems like it should be a rather difficult task, but I'm not familiar with HOI4. How does the game handle occupied territory?
At least story-wise, Arabia will likely install a puppet regime.
With how much the Iberians have invested in stopping the French advance, I worry they have left the Arabian front practically defenseless. This is an incredibly high-stakes race of trying to defeat France before the Communists can defeat the monarchists and entrench themselves in Europe.
Seems we may be having the set up for a future cold war developing, with the democratic and communist blocs racing to seize as much land from the fascists and/or monarchists as possible to determine which faction controls what territory in the new world order. I imagine Andalusia will be lost to the communists and hopefully France will fall to Estonia, but I don't see how the communists can get at Germany, and the Celtic Empire might be able to hold out if their navy is in good shape.
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The short answer is... not very much, the war in the New World was kind of a dud. I had hoped that the conflict between the USA and Inca would make for something interesting overseas, and they've just spent a few years squabbling over the tip of Venezuela. It's been utterly uninteresting, and I'm actually thinking of changing their focus in the coming chapters to get the American nations involved in worldwide affairs.
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A race to Paris huh, what a tense part of this war. Regardless of how much land the Communists take, they are already a beefy faction, what with all of mainland Africa and a good chunk of Asia. On the flip side, the monarchist compact it seems will most likely be irrelevant outside of Europe once the war ends and will adopt some democratic reforms down the line.
This is getting eerily similar to the end of OTL WW2, with the race to capitulate the main fascist power before the communists do.
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1943 - Seismic Shifts, Part 1
Respite and Renewal - Estonia Prepares for the Future of the War
The cold, snowy winter of 1942 brought the Estonian incursion into the French-occupied German Republics to a swift halt. The icy conditions froze many of the tanks on both sides in their tracks, and strong, wintry winds made aerial missions increasingly dangerous. The snow brought an eerie stillness over the European front, as opposing forces camped on opposite sides of the Elbe River in anticipation of the fighting to come in the new year.
For the largely Christian soldiers of France and the German Republics, Christmas passed in silence with nearly no conflict. Some small celebrations were even organized in locations far enough from the front, and the Christmas of 1942 was the first taste of normalcy for the liberated Elbe Republic in many years. Liberated towns had great public celebrations, and even the predominantly Suomenusko Estonian troops helping to garrison these liberated towns joined in the celebration. The only fighting that occurred throughout the winter were occasional dogfights between fighter squadrons performing aerial reconnaissance across the river. For men who had been locked in bitter war for months or even years, the winter provided a critically necessary period of rest.
But while the men at the front were tucked in overwintering on the battlefield, Estonia's high command were busy at work in Saaremaa retooling their efforts for the future, beginning with a substantial overhaul to the nation's navy. The Estonian navy was significant in size, but France could field vessels of significantly higher quality, supported heavily by fighters launching from along the northern coast; as a result, early naval battles did not go well for the Estonians. The naval invasion of the Jutland Republic had been successful, but so far, all attempts to breach French territorial waters had failed.
To that end, the Estonian navy opened 1943 by introducing Operation Meremeister -- "Operation Sea Lord" -- as a movement to modernize the nation's naval equipment. The flagship product of the project was the brand new Liberator-class aircraft carrier, with two of the ships slated to be completed in two years' time in January of 1945. These were to be supported by the Kaleva-class heavy cruiser and a large screen of new-model Squall-class destroyers. Together, these ships would join into a new unified fleet that would become the tip of the Estonian navy's spear in years to come.
But the deployment of the Liberators was two years off, and the beginning of 1943 brought warmer weather and called for the resumption of hostilities -- and the year began with a violent, deadly bang.
Cold Ground, Hot Lead - The Battle for Europe Resumes
As February of 1943 began, Estonian forces crossed the Elbe en masse, leading a thundering armored assault across the frost-hardened ground into the Guelder Republic, setting their sights on Munster and Leeuwarden. French soldiers had had all winter to dig into their positions and fortify their strongpoints, but the mobility of Estonia's light armored divisions and the unrelenting advance of its T-34 battle tanks proved to be overwhelming for the war-weary National Guard. The French defenders were beginning to waver in their confidence, and the energetic and enthusiastic Estonians took advantage of their doubts by pushing across the river in great force, easily liberating Munster.
But even as Estonia's ground forces were penetrating into the Guelder Republic, continued efforts to breach the English Channel to relieve the Celtic Empire were met with consistent failure. In mid-February, the aircraft carrier EML Kaali led a strike force into the Channel, but she was quickly met by a sizable force of French light surface vessels patrolling the seas. Outnumbered and outclassed, the Kaali was sunk along with 18 other vessels -- making it the costliest single naval loss for Estonia since the dawn of the war, removing one of its three aircraft carriers from service. The momentum may have been turning toward Estonia overall, but the naval defeat meant that Moira's Celtic Empire was still dangerously isolated from the rest of the world, unable to deploy more troops and cut off from critical supplies and resources.
And while the Celtic Empire sat in isolation across the channel, one of Moira's chief allies was on the cusp of defeat.
Before the French established naval superiority, the Celtic Empire had deployed a number of divisions to Andalusia to support King Miguel's defense against France. The failure of the Gran Escudo to hold the National Guard at bay gave the French access to the Mediterranean coastal city of Valencia, but a stable defensive line was eventually formed that slowed France's progress significantly.
The arrival of Arabian forces in the southwest, however, strained the Andalusians to the breaking point. Miguel's army was already scraping the barrel by conscripting any able-bodied person to fight, regardless of age or sex; now, with a new front against Arabia opened, the Andalusian army's already-strapped manpower would have to be shared across two front lines. This proved to be more than the desperate Andalusians could handle. In the early weeks of 1943, Arabian soldiers captured Badajoz and Evora, opening a path to assault Lisbon from the south and east.
Hastily-assembled militia units drawn from desperate Andalusian civilians tried to respond to the threat, but the advance of the communists from the southwest was simply too much for them to answer. Arabian infantry and motorized troops swept across the southern end of the peninsula, capturing territory at an alarming pace as the militia forces could not meet them in time. Andalusia was stuck in a vice, squeezed by France on one side and Arabia on the other, and by early March, the royal capital in Cordoba was threatened from both sides. King Miguel refused to abandon his city, choosing to remain in Cordoba as fascist and communist forces closed in on him. But he ordered his son and heir apparent, Prince Carlos, to flee the peninsula with his honor guard to seek shelter on friendly soil. Carlos made a treacherous, late-night journey by sea to reach friendly Italy, landing safely in Corsica.
The next morning, King Miguel surrendered to Arabian forces advancing on Cordoba. Just months after the defeat of Persia, a second Monarchist Compact nation had fallen to the communists. Now, only the isolated Celtic Empire and the landlocked German Empire remained. Fascism and monarchism seemed to be on the decline, as communism and democracy swelled in their strength. The fate of France and of the remaining Compact nations would have significant impact on the future shape of postwar Europe.
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Well we are certainly approaching the endgame in Europe now with Andalusia capitulating, may the Estonians carve a path towards Paris soon before the Communists make their intention more known.
They are not … but, spoiler, that’s about to change. Arabia sees the writing on the fall for fascism, and Jaziri is going to want everything he can get.
Out of curiosity, how is the Italian and German front with France holding up? I know they were holding their own for awhile, but I'm wondering if Estonia's push against France is giving them a chance to push the advantage and start moving into French territory.
A very good question! And one that will be answered in detail in the next post. In general, though, while many of the other countries folded up, both Italy and Germany have performed far above expectation against the French.
Shame the Monarchist Compact is getting steamrolled so far. I'm rooting for Estonia of course, but I was hoping they'd pull through.
They have fizzled out pretty hard, sadly. Though at the very least, Germany benefits from being landlocked, meaning the Arabians have no avenue to hit them in the back while they are fighting France. If any of the Compact nations have a shot at staying in the fight, it's the Germans.
I hope Arabia is taken down sooner rather than later, or else Estonia's going to be facing down a huge communist bloc after the war.
I have a feeling that Europe is going to end up divided between democracy and Communism, while the Americas sort out their affairs, and China owns basically all of Asia. The endgame of this campaign is going to be nothing short of wild.