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@Eternaly_Lost

You gonna get active today, with more information now available to you?

Anywho, now that a wolf from (potentially) both packs has been lynched (I don't think it would be a three pack game, those are rare, and usually require more players), we can get a bit of a better picture on who is a better lynch.

For example, take Steed, who not only failed to vote yesterday, but also has yet to vote a confirmed baddie, and instead, did this the last time he voted:

Its all too easy to jump on a Gen. Marshall groovy train,, I think its best to step away and Vote Aedan

If there was a positive on Capage,, we disposed of a cursed which can cause harm if turned late in the game with information to spill.

A very bizarre post, as it was a throwaway at the time, and aedan was far from the best choice then. He also never responded to prompts to clarify his vote.

Vote Steed
 
As I am rereading the thread, I am going to put this here to ponder.

Villager
Villager role

Part of the EA Pack
Part of the Ubisoft Pack


Day 1
Capage: 6
Arkasas (120)
Steed (139)
Jacksonian Missionary (storm77 122 -> 151)
Gen. Marshall (Panzer Commader 104 -> 188)
storm77 (Rovsea 119 -> Capage 160 -> Panzer Commader 190 -> 193)
alxeu (Jacksonian Missionary 131 -> BlackCrown 165 -> Panzer Commader 187 -> Gen. Marshall 196 -> 197)

jeray2000: 4
brovahkiin (107)
aedan777 (121)
Daleksbane (137)
Panzer Commader (150)

k-59: 2
Rovsea (130)
johho888 (142)

Rovsea: 2
tamius23 (138)
ramius3443 (144)

Gen. Marshall: 2
BlackCrown (alynkio 175 -> Panzer Commader 182 -> 192)
Capage (Audren 125 -> k-59 141 -> Panzer Commader 183 -> 198)

Panzer Commander: 1
alynkio (De Chatillon 118 -> BlackCrown 155 -> 185)

aedan777: 1
De Chatillon (105)

CaesarCzech: 1
Eternaly_Lost (113)

brovahkiin: 1
jeray2000 (114)

Eternaly_Lost: 1
Audren (116)

Claude LC: 1
Sleepyhead (Arkasas 127 -> 172)

Audren: 1
k-59 (126)

Not voted:
Claude LC, Wagonlitz, CaesarCzech :(

Day 2
Daleksbane: 10
aedan777 (229)
alynkio (246)
johho888 (251)
tamius23 (256)
Claude LC (258)
Eternaly_Lost (Gen. Marshall 242 -> 268)
jeray2000 (281)
storm77 (Gen. Marshall 227 -> 287)
ramius3443 (290)
Gen. Marshall (Jacksonian Missionary 222 -> BlackCrown 293 -> 304)

BlackCrown: 6
Arkasas (245)
Audren (249)
Jacksonian Missionary (255)
Sleepyhead (Claude LC 235 -> 267)
Panzer Commader (Claude LC 257 -> 269)
k-59 (Gen. Marshall 225 -> 275)

Gen. Marshall: 4
Daleksbane (226)
BlackCrown (228)
CaesarCzech (234)
De Chatillon (238)

Eternaly_Lost: 1
alxeu (Claude LC 218 -> Eternaly_Lost 244 -> BlackCrown 282 -> 292)

Claude LC: 1
brovahkiin (248)

aedan777: 1
Steed (252)

Not voted:
Wagonlitz*
*Second missed voted

Day 3

k-59: 6
jeray2000 (327)
storm77 (333)
De Chatillon (343)
Panzer Commader (346)
Eternaly_Lost (351)
Jacksonian Missionary (366)

Jacksonian Missionary: 6
aedan777 (345)
Arkasas (353)
Gen. Marshall (Eternaly_Lost 324 -> 359)
k-59 (alxeu 355 -> 362)
alxeu (Eternaly_Lost 347 -> 365)
Claude LC (367)

Eternaly_Lost: 2
johho888 (338)
BlackCrown (344)

alxeu: 1
ramius3443 (317)

Audren: 1
alynkio (339)

Steed: 1
tamius23 (340)

Panzer Commader: 1
Wagonlitz (341)

ramius3443: 1
Sleepyhead (348)

Not voted:
Ayeshteni, Steed, CaesarCzech* o_O

*Second missed vote
 
As I am rereading the thread, I am going to put this here to ponder.

Villager
Villager role

Part of the EA Pack
Part of the Ubisoft Pack


Day 1


Day 2


Day 3

Thank you, I always find these really useful!

For what it's worth, here's a list of everyone that's never voted or been voted by a wolf yet:

1. Sleepyhead as Moralpolisen
2. brovahkiin as a militant rome 2 partisan subbed by Ayeshteni
3. De Chatillôn as a hardcore HoI player
4. Panzer Commader :( as alxeu's less dashing nice twin
5. CaesarCzech as Absolute Evil
6. Audren as the that one kid in your Spanish 201 class who's a little too into the Reconquista
7. Wagonlitz
8. BlackCrown
9. Steed
 
This is good, though JM voted BC day 2, and
Either way, I don't want to be lynched so: Unvote Gen. Marshall, Vote Daleks
happened
Nice of you to include yourself on the list too :p

I sadly have less time than I thought. I like the DeChat, Lostie, and Steed cases. And obviously wouldn't object to Audren.

What do people make of Ramius and Sleepyhead?
 
alxeu
Based on his behaviour during the fake outing, I'd say he's more likely to be a goodie. He also voted for baddie Jacksonian which caused him to die in a TIE. Of course that could just be him sacrificing an inactive mate, or he could be in another pack, but for now I see no reason to lynch alxeu.

tamius23
Has been rather inactive, but he put a critical vote on Daleksbane during the bandwagon on me. More likely to be good than bad.

Sleepyhead

Only voted for unknowns, tried to introduce BlackCrown as a candidate opposing Daleksbane, suggested to get a third candidate lynched instead of BlackCrown or Daleksbane. His posts give me wolfish vibes; very suspicious.

Claude LC

Inactive, voted for Dalek, voted for Jacksonian. Wolves, you have your ideal hunt target right here.

Arkasas

Posted a reasonable amount, contributed very little. During the bandwagon on me he voted for BlackCrown, who had no other votes at the time. Suspicious.

brovahkiin / Ayeshteni

Subbed out, nothing particularly interesting going on.

Eternaly_Lost

Hadn't been very active up to now, but voted Daleksbane.

De Chatillôn

Has been zombie'ing his way through the game, provided poor reasoning for his votes and voted for the wrong people. Very suspicious.

Panzer Commader
Has midterms, so I expected him to be very active in the thread. Sadly his activity has only been average.
I'm not really sure what to make of his posts. He provided reasoning for his votes, but nothing particularly enlightening. More like the kind of reasoning a wolf would come up with to stay under the radar, which for now, he has managed quite well. Voted for BlackCrown and k59, both of which I'd say make him a more likely wolf.

jeray2000

Much like Panzer, but he voted for Daleksbane, which makes him statistically less likely to be a wolf.

aedan777

Not very active, but that's aedan's style early on. I hope to see him participate more from now on. Voting record is 10/10.

alynkio

Weirdly, voted for Panzer after the fake outing, even though moments before that he seemed to realise that it wasn't actually an outing (that's the TLDR version, I recommend going back and reading it yourself). Then, didn't switch away from Panzer. Supposedly tried to fish Dalek, which is also odd, but surely a wolf wouldn't come up with all that just to be able to say that his packmate claims vanillager. All in all, I'm undecided here, despite his relatively many posts.

storm77

I would eat his hat if he's Dalek's packmate. Voted for k59 instead of Jacksonian so he could still be a member of that pack, but he's decently active and gives me goodie vibes.

CaesarCzech

Suspicious zombie. He tried to fish whether I was a scanner on Day 2, wouldn't mind lynching him.
Also, I can't seem to be able to search for his name, for some reason?


Audren

Not very active, poor voting record. He voted for BlackCrown instead of Dalek when votes on both on them just started to pile up, and I think he missed yesterday's vote? Today's vote doesn't look too great either, even though I agree that De Chat is suspicious.

Wagonlitz

Not going to say anything other than that he's a bad lynch.

ramius3443

Voted for Dalek, which makes him less likely to be part of that pack. Did absolutely nothing yesterday, though, leaving a throwaway vote up which didn't look entirely serious either.

BlackCrown

Gave me goodie vibes earlier, but his voting record isn't anything to be proud of. Strangely, he didn't vote for Dalek when he was the #2 candidate himself. Could it be that him and Dalek were both wolves, possibly even from the same pack? Bit of an outlandish theory maybe, but let it be said I'm no longer convinced he's a goodie.

Steed

What can I say, he's a zombie with a terrible vote record.
 
Last edited:
Thoughts and notes as I reread the thread.

alxeu won the shamvoting.

Night 0 had no one die, curse, blessed, GA or wolves forgetting to hunt on night 0. We can likely exclude the last, and GA would be lucky. Assuming Blessed or curse was it not for the no hunt on night 2 as well. If it was a curse hit they hunt someone else and would have missed again. If it was a blessed hit they likely go for the same person and thus kill someone. Could be a GA that got lucky on night 0 and decided to protect the same person again on night 2.

Gen. Marshall claimed an outing 4 minutes before the deadline, then immediately withdrew saying it was not an outting. We don't know the role of the person he outted as Panzer Commader is still alive, but that a rather risky move for a wolf. Since doing an outting and your outted person not being a baddie is grounds to be lynched immediately.

The fact he managed to stay alive and the person he outted is still alive, is extremely interesting. The fact there was a no hunt the following night (night 2), means that the wolves that hunted that likely believe he was genuine. Since there is no point to hunting someone that would likely be lynched the next day for his actions.

The wolves might have then just hunted him since they knew every scanner was going to scan him. The pack that hunted night 1, might not have been online when he made that post, or did not believe him. Or decided it was too risky as any GA that saw that post would protect him.

It fairly safe to assume that the night 2 hunt was targeted at Gen. Marshall, knowing he would be scanned, and he was GA protected that night.

Gen. Marshall was swung up day 2 as to be expected after his actions on day 1. Very easy vote for wolves to jump on, as was pointed out in the thread, and we know at least one wolf, Daleksbane, did so.

johho888 jumping in to bring up Daleksbane hints to me that he might have scanned Daleksbane and wanted to get him lynched without having to do an outting.

Reading though this, I wonder if Gen. Marshall is our priest and he did the fake outting to get in touch with the roles in the village.

And maybe if it was not even a fake outting, but a real one. He could have scanned Panzar night 0 and found a cultist or a Sorcerer, but I would not expect him to leave the Sorcerer alive and back out on his outting.

All in all, we have a solid JL that is headed by Gen. Marshall.

Now on to who to vote for.

jeray2000 is giving me the most wolfish vibes right now, and here is why.


Gen. Marshall is probably a goodie, a baddie wouldn't attract such attention to themselves. There's a case to be made that he's my packmate and he did that fake outing to try to save me, but since 1. I'm not a baddie and 2. that'd be a really dumb idea that'd get us both lynched if we were packmates.

That a very good post at directing the village to think of jeray2000 and Gen. Marshall together. Exactly what a wolf would want to do after he was almost lynched then saved the last minute by a third party. His other posts do nothing to help redeem him, so he currently my number 1 suspect for a wolf.
 
Yes and your interest in him is duly noted for further analysis, it might be that you both don't subscribe to anti-democratic values. We'll see.

As for today, I don't might offing Marshall as random fake outings are counterproductive, though the bandwagon on him is equally suspicious. Of the ones with votes, I don't mind bringing in BC in the race.

Unvote ClaudeLC
Vote BlackCrown

Why? BlackCrown contributed one hell of a lot more than Dalek, even if his contributions amount to saying that I'm a wolf.

I can only pick one. Dalek was already before BC by my count and BC's vote was more of a bandwagon one.

Are we tying the frontrunners or going for a third candidate?

How do you accurately measure miserability though? That's not an easy task. Besides, what if you as a society take drastic measure in pursuit of some abstract pleasure? You need values to make sure the inviolability of people isn't infringed upon, that equality is respected and to ensure TIE.

Values might be hard for non Pdox fanboys. But you'll have to be one to know for sure, right?

As an enemy of TIE, late bandwagoner on agent Dalek onward to assured slaughter (indeed, a packmate knowing his time was out would vote him for goodie points) and knowledgeable about rival gaming industry values the rest of us are naturally ignorant of, I hereby

Vote ramius3443

I think these are the most suspicious posts I've come across in this thread, and it's odd that there hasn't been any pressure on him yet.

Vote Sleepyhead
 
OFFICIAL VOTECOUNT (2 hours, 49 minutes until deadline)

Eternaly_Lost: 2
jeray2000 (382)
Ayeshteni (383)

De Chatillon: 2
storm77 (394)
Audren (397)

Ayeshteni: 1
ramius3443 (387)

Steed: 1
alxeu (401)

jeray2000: 1
Eternaly_Lost (410)

Sleepyhead: 1
Gen. Marshall (411)

Note voted:
Bunch of people


 
This is good, though JM voted BC day 2, and
happened

BlackCrown
Gave me goodie vibes earlier, but his voting record isn't anything to be proud of. Strangely, he didn't vote for Dalek when he was the #2 candidate himself. Could it be that him and Dalek were both wolves, possibly even from the same pack? Bit of an outlandish theory maybe, but let it be said I'm no longer convinced he's a goodie.

Oh, apparently that vote wasn't counted by Capibara. BC did vote Dalek in self preservation, but didn't make his vote stand out enough.
 
I think these are the most suspicious posts I've come across in this thread, and it's odd that there hasn't been any pressure on him yet.

Vote Sleepyhead
You find me suspicious every game and vote me every single one as well, no matter my role.
 
This is good, though JM voted BC day 2, and
happened

Oh, true. I forgot to count un-votings, although to be honest I'm not sure if they should be counted or no anyway.

What do people make of Ramius and Sleepyhead?

I can see the case about Sleepyhead and think it has merit. What's ramius done though?

Panzer Commader
Has midterms, so I expected him to be very active in the thread. Sadly his activity has only been average.
I'm not really sure what to make of his posts. He provided reasoning for his votes, but nothing particularly enlightening. More like the kind of reasoning a wolf would come up with to stay under the radar, which for now, he has managed quite well. Voted for BlackCrown and k59, both of which I'd say make him a more likely wolf.

Ha, while i see your point, and that's the sort of thing that would normally happen, this semester has actually been pretty awful for me so I really am trying to spend less time on the internet and more time studying. However, I do realize that signing up was my choice and it carries some degree of responsibility so I've been trying my best to at least not play mindlessly and give some opinions on other people's cases, even if I can't come up with any myself.

As for today, the only cases I really dislike are the ones on Ayeshteni and Jeray. Ayestheni is being voted by ramius for not providing a reason for their vote, but I can easily see someone who hasn't played in 10 years and is feeling somewhat out of their element do that, regardless of role. Ay to me seems to be genuinely goodie-confused, if that makes sense.

As for Jeray, well, I like that EL is contributing now but I just don't see his arguments as convincing. We don't even know for sure that Marshall is a goodie, though it is likely. So jumping from that to vote Jeray for a complicated trick of trying to be associated with him, I don't know, I just don't see it. I think everyone sort of assumed that if Marshall was a wolf he would have been doing the outing to try to save Jeray, so the post makes sense in that way.

I'm not going to be able to be around for much longer, so I think I will just go ahead and

Vote De Chat

Because I like storm's case the best of the current ones and in case I don't end up coming back before deadline.
 
This is good, though JM voted BC day 2, and
happened
Nice of you to include yourself on the list too :p

I sadly have less time than I thought. I like the DeChat, Lostie, and Steed cases. And obviously wouldn't object to Audren.

What do people make of Ramius and Sleepyhead?
I wager that packmates of Dalek knew he was toast and went for him at the end instead of a tie, in order to get goodie points. Dalek has a track record of typically getting himself killed early. Of these voters I think ramius is one of the most likely packmates (being knowledgeable about rival company values), though anyone from the time on he was in the lead by a shot is likely, except Marshall who still had a sizeable amount of votes.
It has been more than 6 months since I voted for you :p

In any case, the evidence is there, and it points to you being suspicious.
It's still every single game we've both been in since like four-five games back. What is more likely; that you finally got something, that you're metaing or that you cannot read me? I know it's not the first and I hope it isn't the second.

Your case btw:
Sleepyhead
Only voted for unknowns, tried to introduce BlackCrown as a candidate opposing Daleksbane, suggested to get a third candidate lynched instead of BlackCrown or Daleksbane. His posts give me wolfish vibes; very suspicious.
BC already had votes and Dalek was ahead at that point (quite possibly by his own pack IMO). Third candidates can always make things interesting.

I still think the voters putting Dalek firmly in the lead are likely reds, but will take a look at Jacksonian's activity before casting a vote.
 
Not much to go on from Jacksonian. He voted Capage and k-59, who are dead, as well as BC. Some others are more unlikely yellows as well, but I cannot see anyone likely being one.

More interesting is that seer johho voted Daleksbane, the rival agent, followed by a vote on Eternaly_Lost, the player who first put Dalek firmly in the lead instead of making a TIE. Could have been scanned and voted by the seer for it, could also have been selling out a packmate.

Vote Eternaly_Lost
 
aedan777
Not very active, but that's aedan's style early on. I hope to see him participate more from now on.
I've been as active as I need to be. The past two days I made cases on candidates with no one else voting them, and both ended up being revealed as baddies when they were lynched. What more do you want, me directing ties between multiple baddies?

In any event, why is EL not far and away leading in votes? Other players have gotten bandwagoned for far less. He's been a lazy follower through previous days, and today now that he's activated, he's somehow even worse.

johho888 jumping in to bring up Daleksbane hints to me that he might have scanned Daleksbane and wanted to get him lynched without having to do an outting.
What's the point of this? Both Johho and Dalek are dead, so this is pointless either way.

Reading though this, I wonder if Gen. Marshall is our priest and he did the fake outting to get in touch with the roles in the village.
Why would a villager be speculating about the identity of the priest in thread?

All in all, we have a solid JL that is headed by Gen. Marshall.
Considering the seer just got hunted, I find every aspect of this sentence to be faulty, and potentially malicious. Why assume there even is a JL? And what is with the assumption that Marshall is a clear goodie when he's done nothing to earn it? He could well have done his whole stunt to attract scanner attention and he's a SA wolf or cultist that would get them killed for it. Either way, stating blind confidence in Marshall as a JL head is simply ludicrous at this point.

And besides EL's case against Jeray being really weak and ignoring that many players had been drawing links between Marshall and Jeray before the latter, nearly everything EL talks about in his "analysis" is from day 1 and involving Marshall's shenanigans. Why did he make such a big deal about waiting until day 4 to contribute, then only focus on day 1 anyways? We lynched baddies on days 2 and 3, surely they deserve more attention than day 1.

So EL is still not actually contributing meaningfully, he's still voting poorly, and he's potentially trying to actively mislead the village regarding Marshall. After his lazy votes in previous days, he's my prefered lynch for today.

Vote Eternaly_Lost
 
This is good, though JM voted BC day 2, and
happened
Nice of you to include yourself on the list too :p

I sadly have less time than I thought. I like the DeChat, Lostie, and Steed cases. And obviously wouldn't object to Audren.

What do people make of Ramius and Sleepyhead?
Personally I think Ramius is an outstanding villager.