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The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

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With an update brewing as I type it's time to respond to my bizarrely loyal readers (it's their continued loyalty in the face or such infrequent updates that's bizzare, not the readers themselves, well I'm not too sure in some cases
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) People prepared to put up with such slackness from a writer should be cherished and responded to;

Fulcrumvale - The mighty Regia Marina now consists of a pair of badly beaten up heavy cruisers, a selection of wounded cruisers and a bakers dozen of leaky destroyers. So the short answer would be; No. :D

Ouglyus - Seven posts ever and I rate one of them, now these are the type of comments I really appreciate. :)

Funkatronica - The peace treaty will be... complex to say the least. While the Australian/New Zealand demand for the defeat of the Italian Fleet have been dealt with there is still the matter of a post war moratorium to deal with, not to mention the matter of Italy's "Fourth Shore" and East Africa to deal with. The new foreign minister will have a great deal on his plate there.

As for the King, well he never was the most rational and thoughtful chap was he? I'd say his heart was in the right place, but frankly it wouldn't be true. What I will say is that he had perhaps the worst understanding of the concept of "Duty" of any person to ever live. As such anything is possible. :eek:

GeneralHannibal - South Africa will remain in trouble until those pesky Boers settle down and accept their place in life.
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Judas Maccabeus - Less cheek you! While there is little doubt SA is doing something very well, I wouldn't call it a vital role. Annoying, yes. Vital, no.

Dr. Gonzo - Well I couldn't have everything go right could I? That would just be boring. Almost as monotonous as the continued Whig domination of parliament in a Vicki AAR I'm reading, now what was it's name..... :p

Duritz - There may well be a place for a suitably chastened and embarrassed Neville, provided he accepts that he knows nothing about foreign policy, defence spending or indeed anything more than balancing a budget with numbers given him by more competent people. :D

RAFspeak - Well it wasn't that early, as I understand it the original plans date from 1938 (the Munich Crisis) so it didn't seem that much of a push for a shooting war to provide the necessary impetus to bring that date forward.

As for the Rome Raid, while I wouldn't put money on them being able to repeat it after Il Duce desperately calls every fighter in the country back home, they don't have to. Your point about potential gas attacks is particularly pertinent to Italy, after all they already have used bombers dropping gas in Abyssinia and know just how terrible it is. Such things do concentrate the mind towards peace.

In both cases I mentally checked they were plausible for the time and situation. After Atlantic Friend used my quotes in his article of plausibility in AARs I'd feel a right idiot if I suddenly veered off into rubbish in my very next update.

C&D - Franco is currently milling around North Africa trying to work out how to get the Army of Africa onto mainland Spain without Italian air transport. Unsurprisingly this is proving tricky. ;)

As for laughing boy Adolf, he's done nothing (internationally anyway) to deserve such attention. Yet.

Sir Humphrey - Glad you liked it sir.

Karelian - Anti-commonwealth updates must indeed be dealt with, as for Continental opportunists causing trouble, well that's what the French are for surely? Oh I see what you mean.... :D

TheDave - Eight posts in three(ish) years and two here, I'm touched. :) As I said above encouragement and well done's from lurkers are particularly appreciated due to their rarity value. I will endeavour to keep standards high and updates regular (and if you believe that last part I've got a wonderful offer on a stunning Baghdad time-share....)

Vann the Red - Well quite, no point spending ages producing rubbish updates is there? That would just be madness and I would feel suitably silly. I think I'll stick with the tried and tested "Less than real time but quality when they turn up" updating system if it's all the same to you.

As I said, the update is being poked and should emerge this weekend all being equal (which it never is).
 
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El Pip said:
In both cases I mentally checked they were plausible for the time and situation. After Atlantic Friend used my quotes in his article of plausibility in AARs I'd feel a right idiot if I suddenly veered off into rubbish in my very next update.
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Muhuhaha, now you're under my control, Mr Pip ! :D
 
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What? Another update brewing?

...This must be treated initially with suspicion - like a sighting of two Christmases in December - but then embraced with fervour!

Yes, the Italian gas-bombing in Africa was on my mind when I said that bombers over Rome would produce results... Also, despite what was learned the hard way during WW2 (namely that Air power had replaced Sea power as the dominant armed force), with the Italian navy so crushed good old Duce would be thrown out of office if he didn't make peace fast. In fact, considering his style and reputation-based authority, it wouldn't surprise me if he was thrown out of office after making peace!

...I remain at flight-level 150, circling and hungrily watching for another much-appreciated update...

:rofl:
 
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You're such a tease Pippy! :D
 
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Duritz said:
You're such a tease Pippy! :D
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amen to that!!

our pippy dangles another brilliant update like that in front of us to whet our appetite and then hits us over the head with it

same principle as the carrott and the stick, except el pip hits us with the carrott. very unsporting old chap. i shall see about having you de-barred if you keep this up. ;)

later, caff
 
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No Quarterr

So, the Italian Moose is attempting to throw in the towel? Don't let him.

A wise man said that "If you hit a snake but do not kill it, it will come back to haunt you." This is the stance I would take against the Blackshirted thugs.

Lead Mussolini on, acting like you want peace, but when the men are ready, drive into Italy and do not stop until the last plane has been shot down, the last ship has been sunken, and the last soldier is dead or captured. Than hand Mussolini over to his "loving audience."

I would then puppet Italy, not even bothering to strip her of a single inch of land. Ethiopia is a small price to pay for a valuable ally capable of threatening the Southern flank of the Reich, and removing one of the "big three" is more valuable than keeping Selassie on the throne.

Just my two cents, but keep going.
 
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Never has a more apt sobriquet been seen in a Pippy AAR.

Ruddy
 
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[dit][dit][dit] [dah] [dah] [dah] [dit][dit][dit]

...Given that all things were not equal, can I send a crash tender or NAAFI wagon round to help rehabilitate you, El Pip?

Anything that will aid you in adding to this fine AAR, and giving those bally eyeties what-for, is yours - you just have to ask!

:rofl:
 
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Funkatronica said:
oh thats harsh realpolitiking there tortoise herder!

please update soon el pip!! can this aar take a rabbling mob??? :eek:
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Seconded.....you make out like El Pip has Hitler in parliament and not Churchill :eek:
 
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caffran - I don't hit my readers with the carrot, but I will hit you with the carrot, the stick and anything else lying around until you learn to control your cheek sir.

Jalex - Loyal readers will indeed be rewarded with sticks. Cunning and insightful comments will earn branches. Nominations for awards will earn complete trees. It's a sliding scale. :D

Tortoise Herder - Dear god sir, that's a most extreme course of action you propose. Frankly while it may work in some form of computerised game one would play on an elaborate difference engine I can't see it working here in the real world.
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What is this big three you refer to? Those charming Japanese chappies haven't done anything (yet) and the loveable Hun haven't even re-occupied the Rhineland (also yet). Unless the cabinet develop clairvoyance there's nothing much on the horizon to prompt such fears.

Not to mention the big issue: convincing the country that a fairly low intensity (on land anyway) 'colonial' war has to become a bitter fight to the death and long term occupation of a country. It may make perfect 'game' sense but politically not even the most deranged Ultra-Imperialist would even think of suggesting it.

Hope that doesn't put you off following the story.

Vann the Red - 'apt sobriquet' in reference to "The Italian Moose"? Or have I completely missed you're point?

RAFspeak - If you happen to have some spare time lying around that would be most helpful. :D

scubadoobie2 - Or even Austen Chamberlain. Although I doubt old Winston will want (or be allowed) to head quietly back into the wilderness.

Funkatronica - For shame sir! I'm currently in The Rand Club Jo'burg, right in the heart of the action dontcha know? With a bit of luck I will complete my business hear soon enough and return to the more salubrious delights of the Mediterranean.
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Right most of the update is done so posting before the weekend (fingers crossed)
 
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Ah, no. I was, perhaps, a bit vague. The post previous to mine came from a person who had chosen the sobriquet "Tortoise Herder" and was posting in your thread. Clearer?

Vann
 
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Update soon?

Yay!
 
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Reply

Actually, you miss the point: The fact is that, by this point in time, the Moose was LOATHED historically to a very large extent by the Italian populace. Now, factor in the massive defeats by the Western Allies on Land, in the Air, and on the sea, and you have a ripe solution for victory.

No occupation is needed, save possibly to prevent German infiltrators into the North, and most Italians will likely welcome you, so long as you set up a legitimate government (likely on the fashion of the old Constitutional Monarchy, which WAS similar to Britain's).

To further sweeten the pot, you allow Italy to be "rehabilitated to the community of nations" completely intact, colonies and all. This will show the world and the Italian people that Britain does not want to destroy Italy, it merely wants to liberate the Italian people from those blackshirted bastards.

And, while the Big Three of the Axis might not have been formed yet, it is moronic to not believe that the Western Allies did not consider Hitler a threat yet, and this is shown by the speedy upgunning of the military is the leadup to the war. So, securing a Southern flank into Austria (which was viewed as likely to be annexed by Germany as early as the treaty in 1918) would indeed be a realistic goal for the Western Allies to look forward to in the 1930s.

So, the bottom line is that, rather than cruelly annexing Italy and stripping it of its colonies, its military, its legitimacy, and its honor, you are overthrowing a tyrannical dictator and lin doing so, not only liberating a nation oppressed by him and his cronies for years, but also destroying an avowed threat to peace in the world stage.


Let it be reminded: YOU DID NOT WANT THIS WAR, YOU HAD IT THRUSTED ON YOU BY ROME! Now, the chance has come to defeat Mussolini and his men, liberate a nation under a democratic government capable of choosing its path in the world, and will secure freedom in the Med for the forseeable future. In addition, you shall gain a valuable ally in Europe and abroad, that can help work to counter Hitlerite Germany and its allies in Europe and in Africa.

You have bled to remove the threat Mussolini poses to freedom after an unprovoked declaration of war. You are now going to work to permanently lance this boil before it can become a raging tumor ever again.

It is not only the smart thing to do, but it is also the Democratic, freedom-loving thing to do.

Liberate Italy, and you shall be the toast of freedom-loving people in Rome, Athens, Paris, London, Washington, and others, while removing a potential ally to the Reich.

Fail to do so, and Italy may become embittered from the war, and come to support the Italian Moose wholeheartedly.

Remember, Italy paid in hundreds of thousands of lives to defeat Austria-Hungary in the last great war, and further the caust of freedom when things looked blackest in 1917.

Can you honestly forsake the sacrifices they made, by refusing to do likewise?

So, that is my argument for total war against the Blackshirts.

The Moose and his thugs came to power by claiming that the Western Allies did not care about the Italian people, and the sacrifices they made for freedom in WWI.

WILL YOU PROVE HIM RIGHT?

any flaws you can think of?
 
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Tortoise Herder said:
Actually, you miss the point: The fact is that, by this point in time, the Moose was LOATHED historically to a very large extent by the Italian populace. Now, factor in the massive defeats by the Western Allies on Land, in the Air, and on the sea, and you have a ripe solution for victory.

No occupation is needed, save possibly to prevent German infiltrators into the North, and most Italians will likely welcome you, so long as you set up a legitimate government.
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No, not really. My understanding is that the opposition to Il Duce was still not much of an issue at this stage. While those who opposed him still did there had been no major issue to provoke hostility. The secret press certificate system was creating the illusion of free press, propaganda was doing its funky stuff raising morale and the high profile (if ineffective) 'Battle for Land' and the like were creating the impression of progress. I'm not suggesting the man was loved nationwide, but he certainly wasn't hated enough to make a foreign invasion (and that's what it would be) welcome, whatever PR is put out before hand.

To further sweeten the pot, you allow Italy to be "rehabilitated to the community of nations" completely intact, colonies and all. This will show the world and the Italian people that Britain does not want to destroy Italy, it merely wants to liberate the Italian people from those blackshirted bastards.
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Even if such an idea would be acceptable to likes of the Foreign, War and Indian Offices (hint: unlikely, especially after the threat to the Suez Canal at the start of the war) there's still selling the idea to the public; "Let's go invade Italy, losing a great deal of mine, tweak their government slightly then give them everything back again." No that is not going to fly is it?

And, while the Big Three of the Axis might not have been formed yet, it is moronic to not believe that the Western Allies did not consider Hitler a threat yet, and this is shown by the speedy upgunning of the military is the leadup to the war. So, securing a Southern flank into Austria (which was viewed as likely to be annexed by Germany as early as the treaty in 1918) would indeed be a realistic goal for the Western Allies to look forward to in the 1930s.
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While dragging Italy into an co-operative pact was an aim (The Stresa Front spring to mind) there is a big difference between diplomatic agreement and invasion. As for Germany, while she's undoubtedly re-arming there's been no agressive actions (no Rhineland in this timeline) and her attempts at diplomacy are ham fisted and not backed by conviction (the humiliation of the aborted ANGA and subsequent German climbdown). A possible threat; yes. To be watched; certainly. Worth invading and conquering another country over; no.

you are overthrowing a tyrannical dictator and lin doing so, not only liberating a nation oppressed by him and his cronies for years, but also destroying an avowed threat to peace in the world stage.

It is not only the smart thing to do, but it is also the Democratic, freedom-loving thing to do.

Liberate Italy, and you shall be the toast of freedom-loving people in Rome, Athens, Paris, London, Washington, and others, while removing a potential ally to the Reich.
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Very idealistic, your not American by any chance are you? Whatever you think of laughing Benito (not a fan myself I must confess) he wasn't particularly tyrannical, relatively speaking anyway. The OVRA secret police's "Tribunale Speciale" only killed 10 people in it's 13 year history, not exactly brutal is it?

While there may well have been no real elections and a rigged press it was hardly a reign of terror, save for those who deliberately stuck there head above the parapet. While I'm sure the cabinet would indeed have preferred a democratic Italy, how many British lives is a 'free' Italy worth?

Never forget in this timeline France abandoned Britain and the Dominion's in their time of need, leaving them to fight alone. What guarantee that a 'liberated' Italy wouldn't do the same? How many millions were killed or wounded in the fields of Flanders? Yet were was Belgium when Italy attacked, not even a gesture of support just quiet neutrality. No sir, arguments of losing many men and much treasure to gain 'valuable' allies will not wash with the British government.

While I can see reasons to take the fight to Rome, I can also see many, many reasons not to. The strategic argument is shaky at best (provided you don't cheat and use foresight) and the practicality shaky (Italy still seriously outnumbers Britain on land, even if India and the Homes Isles are stripped of troops - something I refuse to even contemplate). To my mind that leaves only the moral argument, weighing the lives of British soldiers against the democracy of a 'liberated' Italy.

As British Prime Minister, having taken an oath to serve King and Country above all, would you really send countless thousands soldiers to their deaths for something that would not benefit any Briton, only Italians?
 
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