((I think ThunderHawk is saying it would be best to fight the tiny bear while the big bear is still focusing on Patagonia, and hope to rally forces and fortify or set up your new government while the big bear slowly works its way up - maybe even attacking it bit by bit as it and other forces move closer to you to attack. By marching south and trying to free up Patagonia, you have to fight a lot of armies which are close to each other and where you're probably the biggest target. If you stay north, you fight only the armies that go after you, and they might not all seek you out - preferring to siege Santiago or fight and occupy the rest of the north (which is a larger area with fewer rebels covering it, so a slower turnover of rebels looking for a new target to hit). If armies aren't really focused on taking you out, you won't have to worry about the armies in Patagonia for awhile, allowing you to try to get a foothold in the north before you have to fight them. If the armies are trying to seek you out specifically, then it will be just as easy for the armies in the north to follow you south than for the armies of the south to come up to the north, except that in the north you'll start out fighting only the smaller armies first.))