From my testing:
I have seen AI Germany get stuck in France about 1 in every 5 games in 0.49.
There are four modification of the combat model here on top of each other:
CORE changed combat modelling significantly for 0.40 (for HOI2 ARM)
AoD changed combat mechanics significantly for AoD 1.02
CORE made slight tweaks to combat mechanics for 0.49 (transfer to AoD 1.02)
AoD changed combat mechanics (or ESE calculation) again for AoD 1.04
So, give us time.
But I would say that France might have had a 20% of winning in 1940, so maybe we are not so far off.
T.
I have seen AI Germany get stuck in France about 1 in every 5 games in 0.49.
There are four modification of the combat model here on top of each other:
CORE changed combat modelling significantly for 0.40 (for HOI2 ARM)
AoD changed combat mechanics significantly for AoD 1.02
CORE made slight tweaks to combat mechanics for 0.49 (transfer to AoD 1.02)
AoD changed combat mechanics (or ESE calculation) again for AoD 1.04
So, give us time.
But I would say that France might have had a 20% of winning in 1940, so maybe we are not so far off.
T.