A few months have passed without serious additional upheaval in Europe. But in May, that changes. Abruptly (there were years of subtext, and observers assumed this move might come, eventually, but there was little warning this would be the day), the BBC is abuzz with news of Hitler’s ultimatum – Poland must return Danzig to the German people, or face military action.
Having joined the Allies, and acquired a guarantee from the United Kingdom for its territorial integrity, Poland refused. Immediately, German troops began to move. The UK, France, South Africa all declared war in Poland’s defense, and what would become known as the Second World War was officially underway!
But…
Now this is interesting. At the beginning clash between the Axis alliance and the Allies, I was expecting a “Call to Arms” message from Germany. One would expect, yes?
Peculiarly and ironically, instead I get a request from France for them to buy some of our fuel stockpile! For use against Germany! On quite lucrative terms, I might add! We could sure use that money…
Bah! But that would be silly. We refuse.
Now, it appears that we have not yet been called to join the war. That’s an interesting development (or lack of one). But in a way it makes sense. Italy was not called either (and that, of course, is entirely historical). I began to wonder if Portugal would be called in coming days – just a short delay before being called.
The USA – all the way across the ocean, significantly – felt the heat from the first flash of war sufficient to order a partial mobilization of her economy, and a beefing up of her military defenses. Thinking that this might be a prudent idea, we….
Our mobilizing of our reserves will take them up to within that one final step so they’ll be at 100% soon after war is declared and we increase our economy to Total Economic Mobilisation.
The fighting begins on the border with Poland. German armoured divisions, especially, begin thrusting all across the frontier.
I had been concerned, before, that we would not have certain important warmaking elements ready by the time war came to us. Now, we marshaled all of our efforts to make sure they would be ready soon. Would war stay off our doorstep long enough to finish things? We will have our FW 200 wing by September 11 (sooner if I can find more IC).
Except for that IC dedicated to reinforcement in the wake of our mobilisation step, most everything is channeled toward production. We’ll let our Supply stockpile ride it out until we have the critical things we need.
With Portugal still at peace, our trades are not hampered at all, and so convoys of ships continue to add to our stockpiles with American goods. Soon after war is declared, Germany asks for us to help supply her with Fuel. I’m sure her armoured columns are using hers up at a breathtaking rate, and we’re glad to support them in that effort. This might be considered our first real contribution to the war effort of the Axis alliance!
Wondering, though, if this might be the extent of aid asked for by the Germans, we start looking for alternatives for going to war. So much depends on us actually joining the war, at some point. And yet the hiatus between the start of war and the beginning of our involvement will surely be helpful for us in finishing our preparations.
Because we’ve had spies working to increase her threat – for about 3 years now! – Belgium turns out to be the first Allied country we’ll be able to declare war upon. In mid-May, 1939, we find that we’re still a ways from being able to convince the Portuguese populace to support such a war (we’re just slightly more than 6 points away – neutrality vs. threat – which is being reduced on both ends daily) – they need convincing, still. Not much, though.
Now, since the Germans have provided us with a stable source of income from Fuel sales, we use it to buy more Crude Oil and Energy from the USA. This should bring our Oil stockpiles significantly higher, and bring our Energy reserves into a positive gain status.
Finally, a full two weeks after the war began, the UK (at least) recognizes Portugal as a likely threat, and embargoes us (not a military embargo, with ships, but a prohibition on trade), which really bothers us not at all.
They probably decided it was about time to come awake, because the Poles were getting slapped around by Germany. There was an armoured thrust practically racing toward the Soviet border, with other divisions pressing in, all around. The capital of Warsaw might soon be cut off from much of the country.
Now, I’ll provide a sort of time-lapse of my Production and IC Allocation decisions. In late May, I was still putting everything I had toward the FW 200 wing. No supplies being funded. I’d decided to switch a little of my IC resources into CG to get cash to keep my trades going (cash down to $5). Except for supplies, all of my stockpiles are humming along due to the trades I’ve set up – this is my final push, in anticipation of big changes once war starts.
Then, two weeks later, our priorities have shifted, slightly. In just those 2 weeks, our supply stockpile has dipped by 900 – almost 1/3 of our total stockpile! It’s time to add back our supply producing allocation of IC. I’m no longer in the cash crunch, so I reallocate the CG spending to Production, but I’m still dropping to just 76% of IC need for the FW 200 naval bomber. Fortunately, it’s near enough to being completed, that this only delays the expected arrival date by about 3 weeks.
Finally, in the 2nd week of June, the Polish surrender occurs. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact is put into effect, and the Soviets expand westward into Poland. Not satisfied with this, just a few days later, they demand the annexation of the Baltic States, which bow to inevitability. The Soviets are now well established on the Baltic coast.
Portugal, of course, is not too comfortable with this situation – the enabling of the communist dictatorship which all nationalists and fascists are supposed to oppose. But Hitler made the arrangement, and it was explained by our ally as simply a realistic solution to the balance of power situation – an alliance of convenience, for the time being. That, in itself, seems an ominous description. Yet, it satisfies, too.