The Butterfly Effect: A British AAR

Chapter LIII: Fallout and Aftershocks Part IV - Southern Europe.​

The most important events in the south of the continent occurred in the nation that was most insular, despite all that happened around her Greece kept her own counsel and remained resolutely focused on domestic matters. Given the scale and frequency of the events rocking the country that is far from surprising, even identifying a start point for this chapter is far from straightforward, many of the issues had their roots in the Balkan Wars or even further back, before the Great War started. In the interests of brevity we will begin at the start of 1935, a year that would see Greece transformed from the Presidential Second Hellenic Republic into the restored Kingdom of Greece under George II, King of the Hellenes. This train of events began, ironically, with an anti-monarchist coup in March; former Prime Minister and political icon Eleftherios Venizelos attempting to topple the People's Party government of Panagis Tsaldaris, purely on the suspicion Tsaldaris had pro-monarchist views. Despite considerable support from several senior Greek Army Generals the coup was a failure, the aftermath forcing Venizelos to flee into exile in Paris and his most prominent supporters who remained behind tried and executed. The most significant outcome, besides Venizelos's Liberal Party being outlawed, was the army investigation commission that thoroughly purged the officer corps of any Venizelist or Republican officers.

This 'purification' of the armed forces allowed General Georgios Kondylis, one of the key officers involved in crushing the March coup, to launch a successful pro-monarchist coup of his own in October. Far better planned and with the full support of all the armed services he was able to force the Prime Minister to resign and install himself as regent, pending a referendum on the restoration of the monarchy. The plebiscite was arranged and duly returned a massive majority, over 95% in favour on a turn out higher than at most general elections. However this result was hardly surprising given that voting was compulsory, the ballot was not secret and there was an oppressive army and police presence across the country and in every polling station. However the doubts and unhappiness about the validity of the vote were suppressed, King George II duly returning from exile on the 3rd of November to retake the throne he had been forced from a decade earlier. Much to the surprise of his opponents, but true to his word, General Kondylis then arranged for fresh elections on the 26th January of 1936 and the King symbolically unbanned the Liberal Party as a gesture of reconciliation towards the Venizelists. This gesture was not unappreciated, particularly as the King forced through a general amnesty of Venizelists over the wishes of Kondylis, who, ironically, found himself powerless after the restoration, the King appointing the well regarded Konstantinos Demertzis as interim Prime Minister. These gestures were a success as the still exiled Venizelos, the army having flatly refused to extend the amnesty to him, accepted that a third coup could be disastrous for Greece and instructed his party to enter into the elections in good faith, hoping to save his country further turmoil after a violent and turbulent year.

The election had looked set to end in a three way tie between the previous Prime Minister Panagis Tsaldaris's centre-right People's Party, the resurgent centre-left Liberal Party under Themistoklis Sophoulis and the Moscow-funded Communist/Radical alliance of Nikolaos Zachariadis. This outlook changed rapidly as the rising tensions over Abyssinia became apparent, as Britain and Italy headed closer to war the issues of national security and foreign policy came to the fore, propelling the former Greek Army chief of Staff Ioannis Metaxas and his Freethinkers Party up the polls, their dire warnings about Italian aggression were seemingly proved correct with every action of Il Duce. The big losers were the Communists, the ever fractious Kommounistikó Kómma Elládas (KKE, Communist Party of Greece ) unable to decide whether the best reaction was rearmament, a Popular Front with the Liberals or to attempt a workers revolution. In the end they decided to do what they did best, expelling General Secretary Nikolaos Zachariadis (the seventh General Secretary to be expelled from the party in its short life) and dissolving into expelling 'reactionaries' and internal score settling. With infighting dragging the hard left alliance down and the Freethinkers remaining a minority party despite their high profile the election came down to the Liberal Party against the Popular Party


The results were perhaps the worst possible, Sophoulis was twenty one seats short of a majority and needed coalition partners, yet there were few natural allies in the new parliament. By pandering to the various agricultural parties he scraped together just over 140 seats but would need to include the hard left socialist and openly republican parties. However theses groups overplayed their hand, believing they could dictate terms they presented a vast list of demands that was unacceptable to both the Liberals and King George II, then when rejected their pride made them refused to back down. With all sides acknowledging the importance of having some government, especially after the start of the Abyssinian War, the King re-appointed Konstantinos Demertzis as interim Prime Minister and essentially kicked the issue into the long grass, doubtless hoping for a centre-right/Agrian/Other coalition to emerge given enough time.

While such an alliance may eventually emerged, it was not given the time. The weeks after the election saw Greece rocked by a string of deaths among its leading lights; GRPU party head and coup leader General Kondylis succumbing to a heart attack in February, the exiled, sentenced to death but still influential Eleftherios Venizelos dying of a stroke in Paris in March and most dramatically the interim Prime Minister Konstantinos Demertzis also suffering a fatal heart attack on the 13th of April. As a further blow the People Party leader Panagis Tsaldaris was also on his death bed, eventually dying just over a month after Demertzis. With the country, the two main political parties and the armed forces faction all leaderless there was an immense power vacuum at the heart of Greek politics, a vacuum only the King was able to fill, practically and constitutionally. In this situation the prime requirement for being Prime Minister was not political support or statesmanship, it was being trusted by the King, a quality General Ioannis Metaxas had in abundance. A staunch monarchist, committed nationalist and dedicated anti-communist he had the qualities King George II most valued, more over it was believed his military experience would be vital should the Abyssinian War spread. As a politician his party was National Socialist in the original sense of the words; proud and patriotic on foreign and defence policies but naturally left leaning on the economic and social front. Thus he appealed to, and repelled, both the main parties in some way, making him almost a 'neutral' choice. Under Royal pressure, and with no better candidate becoming apparent, his elevation was agreed by parliament on the understanding it was strictly temporary, his term to last until the crisis was over and a permanent coalition assembled.

Metaxas entered office on the 13th of April and the first few weeks went surprisingly well; The foreign ministry kept an impartial line on the conflict, despite sympathy towards Britain worries over Italian retribution should she emerge victorious dictated a neutral path. On the domestic front the focus on the war allowed policy to lag, which was useful as there was little chance of any policy getting through the divided parliament. Metaxas was able to slightly increase the defence budget, bringing forward planned modernisations in the army and accelerating the Navy's destroyer replacement programme, but his attempts to force through full scale rearmament faltered as he lacked sufficient support. This slight success marked the high water mark of Metaxas' time in office, as the war ended and the Treaty of Valletta was signed parliament turned it's thoughts to thanking Metaxas for a job well done but electing a more civilian leader, one capable of grappling with the economic and social issues of the country. While few doubted he had been correct over Il Duce's lust for war, it was believed that Italy was no longer a threat, or at least not a threat to Greece. With the Regia Marina devastated and the Italian Ionian islands transferred to Britain there was no immediate threat and hence no need for a military leader.


The problem remained building a coalition, Metaxas' Free Thinkers Party stubbornly refused to back any coalition that didn't include Metaxas remaining as Prime Minister along with his allies in key posts, something obviously unacceptable to the far larger established parties. The possibility of a centre-left coalition built around the Liberals was undermined by the refusal of the socialists to compromise, particularly on the issue of accepting the restoration for at least one term. Thus a combination of royal support and a lack of alternative kept Metaxas in office but not in power, lacking a majority he was unable to introduce any new legislation or conduct anything but essential parliamentary business. This paralysis came at a most unfortunate time, the economic policies of previous years had began to bite and industrial and social unrest, patriotically suppressed during the war scare, was bubbling up. The root of these problems lay in the protectionist tariffs and weak Drachma policy pursued by both parties over the previous years, double edged swords that had kept the economy afloat but at the cost of a far higher cost of living. By making exports cheap and imports expensive Greek industry had not only survived the depression but expanded, keeping people in work but reducing their effective wages. Reversing the policies would slash the price of everyday goods but decimate domestic industries, the Bank of Greece assessments baldy stated the economy was 'Built on sand' and was utterly unable to compete in an open market.

While all parties agreed something had to be done, no-one could agree what. The Liberals were ideologically committed to tariffs so proposed bolstering the Drachma, the People's party believed Greece lacked the currency reserves to strengthen the currency so wanted to slash tariffs, while the Agrian wanted steeper tariffs on foodstuffs to raise prices and slashed rates on the diesel, fertilisers and spares they imported. Metaxas' own preference sided with the Liberals, tariffs to protect national industries with a strong currency to reduce the price of other imports and as a symbol of national strength. The tentative co-operation over this issue, the addition of the Free Thinkers ten seats gave the Liberals' existing coalition a majority to push it through, was so successful that talks over a permanent coalition followed. Domestically there was agreement on many issues; an 8-hour working day, strengthened safety regulations and a social security fund were all common ground. An issue by issue coalition was assembled, the disagreements over the monarchy and bad blood from the Great War 'National Schism' were too deep-seated to allow a permanent deal. While a fragile government limping from vote to vote, always on the cusp of failing a vote of confidence was far from ideal, the parties involved believed it was infinitely better than no government at all.

The problem for the new government was the extremists GPRU, the death of General Kondylis had deprived them of a leader, but also of a restraining force. Many of the party members had been involved in both the Monarchist coup and in 'supervising' the restoration referendum, for them Metaxas' co-operation with the Liberals was tantamount to betrayal of the army and the monarchy. Deprived of the calculating influence of Kondylis the parties angry members lashed out at their tribal enemies, the communists. The KKE, having purged itself of all moderate 'traitors' and uncommitted, naturally reacted violently, turning previously good natured strikes into bitter running battles, workers and KKE activist fighting the GPRU infiltrated riot police. The battles left Metaxas' government paralysed, while he believed in his social reforms he was unable to support the communists who were defending them. Equally he had great sympathy for the patriotism of the GPRU he could not support their reactionary violence and opposition to his work, moreover there was a practical problem - the only force capable of decisively suppressing the GPRU was the army, the very source of the much of their strength. As Metaxas' sat paralysed the frequency and intensity of the strikes, and associated violence, only increased as both sides rallied more support. By the autumn of 1936 it is no exaggeration to say Greece was a powder keg, the continuing industrial violence the ever shortening fuse.

Before leaving the region it is worth mentioning the aborted Montreux Conference of July. This meeting was called by Turkey in an attempt to have part of the Treaty of Lausanne annulled, specifically Turkey wanted to re-fortify the Bosporus and to control shipping passing through the straits. The bargaining chip had been Turkish support for sanctions against Italy, however the rapid outbreak of the Abyssinian War had rendered that valueless. Moreover the issues was regarded as relatively unimportant given the other events in Europe, hence the conference had been pushed back almost indefinitely until 'the international situation settled'. Whatever the pragmatic merits of that view, and it had much to recommend itself to the over-stretched Foreign Offices of Europe, it was taken as a grave insult by Turkey. Although the practical effects were minimum, the Turks had already began to re-fortify the straits and only wanted international acknowledgement of their control of the straits, it was a blow to Turkish pride and taken as proof Turkey was seen as a second rate power. Efforts to assert Turkey's 'correct' position in the world would become a dominant theme of foreign policy, especially as the influence of the increasingly unwell President Mustafa Atatürk declined.