Part III: Suicide
... continued
On March 24, 1940, contrary to all expectations, Greece, not Yugoslavia, becomes the next target of Axis aggression. Great Britain's diplomatic skills receive quite approval from Kremlin. Kremlin's opinion about Greeks, however, is not best expressed on paper.
This attitude is about to change when Stalin and Stavka find another target for ridicule.
A week after declaring war on Greece, Hitler, concerned with concentration of Soviet troops on the Soviet-German border, gives his infamous order to the General Staff to put in motion the operation code-named Barbarossa. His allies (Italy, Japan, Hungary and Slovakia) reluctantly agree to join.
To say that Stalin is stunned is to say nothing. He is simply paralyzed. He refuses to believe the reports at first, hanging to his belief that Hitler may be somewhat dumb, but is far from being a complete idiot. Stalin checks the latest intelligence reports - they all say that Germany is years behind the Soviet Union in being prepared for war. Stalin reads them once, then again and again.
Discounting the information about virtually non-existent German navy (even in comparison to less than glorious, but nevertheless still floating Red Fleet), Stalin skips directly to the part about German land forces. At his disposal Hitler has 30 infantry divisions, 1 motorized division and 4 panzer divisions. It is a wonder Germans were able to crush Poland, not to speak of breaking through the Maginot line. Their "blitzkrieg" victories were more of a propaganda trick than reality. As of today, Soviet army consists of 51 rifle, 2 cavalry and 6 mountain rifle divisions plus 1 motorized, 13 mechanized and 3 tank corps. In addition almost every Soviet rifle division and mechanized corps have artillery, anti-tank or anti-aircraft brigade attached to them. Some even have engineer brigades. Needless to say, German infantry divisions are yet to hear about such luxuries. On top of that Soviets are currently mobilizing seven rifle divisions and five tank corps. Germans are content with what they have at the moment.
Stalin is furious. His carefully planned invasion of Europe is thrown off its time-schedule, jeopardized, put under a great risk if not completely out of the question by the actions of a suicidal maniac. This is a suicide, whispers Stalin to himself, how could Hitler be so blind to the numbers?
Another review of the report tells him about the only trump card that Hitler might have up his sleeve - the Luftwaffe. While Soviet 6 fighter divisions are being re-equipped with new multitask fighters, and the whole Red Air Force consists of only 4 bomber and 1 fighter divisions, Germany boasts 22 bomber and fighter divisions. Stalin briefly wonders if there is a method to Hitler's madness (he couldn't have picked a better time for attack, if he absolutely had to attack), but then dismisses this thought as absurd. Being outnumbered by 2:1 on land Hitler is a fool to count on air superiority to win the war. Tanks, airplanes and artillery (which he does not possess in great numbers) - they all are splendid and formidable weapons, but ground can only be won and held by infantry. Germany has skilled and disciplined infantry. So does Soviet Union and in much greater numbers than Germany. No, Stalin re-assures himself, Hitler is not a mad genius, he is simply an idiot.
Thus assured, he declines an offer from Politbyuro to move Soviet industrial bases to the east. Two hours after the declaration of war he meets with his Marshalls and informs them of the changes in plans. Bluntly put, the changes are minimal. The Army will act as if it does not need additional divisions and tanks, as if the Day M arrived as planned and as if it does not need air cover at all. If Hitler attacked us, instead of being attacked by us, Stalin argues, he must have stripped his border of defenses as we did not so long ago. If he attacked us, it means there are no mine fields, barbed wire and fortified centers on our way through Poland. True, we planned to strike first and eliminate German planes before they take to the air. Luckily, considering we are being attacked, our planes are out of the enemy's reach. The enemy must have built airfield close to the border to be able to strike farther into our territory. Let us teach him a lesson. Let us break through his weak and pathetic land forces and destroy his air force as it comes back from the first raids.
Stalin leaves, heading to the Ministry that in Germany would be ignorantly called a Ministry of Propaganda. In Soviet Union, where leaders have brains to hide the obvious, it is called something (Ministry of Information or Ministry of Truth - this is rather unimportant) different. From there he speaks through lips of many others to the world and condemns German aggression against "peace-loving" Soviet people. Taking full advantage of this dire situation, he blames the start of the Second World War on Germany and her lackeys and promises swift retaliation and liberation Nazi nightmare. He continues to point out that the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics struggled to stay away from the confrontation and calls Soviet non-interference a tragic mistake. He particularly addresses Churchill, who has been begging him for month to open a second front against Germany. He promises milk and honey and again, through the headlines of newspapers and voices of quickly found war commentators, points out that it was Hitler who started it.
Then Stalin rests.
The free world cheers their Soviet comrades' will to fight "against fascist aggressors", conveniently forgetting that so-called "peace-loving" Soviet Union managed in six so-called "pre-war months" to annex five countries with populations around 30-40 million people altogether. Not bad for "pre-war" activities. Not bad for a "peace-loving" nation. A point for Stalin.
Meanwhile, Stavka struggles to make a quick analysis of the situation. Digging out war plans, Soviet generals try to adjust them accordingly. As it seems, German army is divided roughly in three parts. Army Group North (7 infantry divisions plus a host of German and Italian air divisions), under Field-Marshall Paulus, is positioned in Memel. Manstein heads Army Group Center, but his headquarters are far behind the frontline. The main bulk of his force is dug in around Warsaw and awaits the armor to attack. Altogether it might account for a half of the entire German army. Army Group South hardly deserves the name. It consists of 4-6 infantry divisions stationed in and out Slovakia. Apparently, Hitler was so impressed with Slovak performance in the Polish campaign that he decided to them worry about defending German southern flank.
On the other sight of the border Soviets amassed 8 Rifle (total 9, with 2nd Rifle Army protecting Vladivostok from Japanese) and 2 Tank Armies. Unlike Germans, Soviet divide them in Fronts, rather than army groups.
The northern or Belarusian Front consists of (from north to south) 7th Rifle Army (Popov), 2nd Tank Army (Zhukov), 1st Rifle Army (Tolbukhin), 3rd Rifle Army (Rokossovskiy), 1st Air Army (Yakovlev).
The central or Ukrainian Front consist of (from north to south) 4th Rifle Army (Bogdanov) and 9th Rifle Army (Budeniy). In addition, Fedorenko is put in charge of 1 mechanized corps, representing 3rd Tank Army (with tanks arriving no later than in May).
The southern or Romanian Front consists of (from north to south). 8th Rifle Army (Chuikov), 6th Mountain Rifle Army (Voroshilov), 5th Rifle Army (Konev), 1st Tank Army (Timoshenko) and 2nd Air Army (Moskalenko).
Initially Stavka made plans for suprise Soviet operation code-named "Thunder". However, Hitler decided to play against the rules, which gave Stavka the opportunity to give a patriotic coloring to the operation's new name. They decide to re-name the operation "Alexander Nevsky", in honor of 13th century Novgorodian Prince who defeated German aggression at Lake Chudskoye. Stalin objects, pointing out that the battle at Lake Chudskoye was rather defensive in nature. Red Army of Workers and Peasants, he continues, will not wait for the enemy and will carry war to the latter's territory. Thus, the operation retains its original name - "Thunderstorm" ("Groza" in Russian).
If everything goes according to plans, armies of the Byelorussian Front will break through German line north and south of Warsaw and seal a pocket of German defenders in the city. Their operational goal will be Berlin. In the south, the armies of Romanian Front will attack through Hungary and South Slovakia, with operational goal of capturing Vienna. The Ukrainian Front will take on the bulk of Slovakian forces, and then lend its aid to Byelorussian and Romanian fronts. Later its armies may be used to take Warsaw and stop any German breakthroughs. Stavka does plan on those as Soviet line has many holes allowing for local numerical superiority at other places.