Revisiting the classics... a study of WC premises with the 3 European majors. Started 3 games, paused each one at the same randomly chosen date of 1457, feb 12, to see the progress, common points, advantages and disadvantages of each.
I. Spain (started as Castille, formed 1428 after inheriting Aragon ) :
Allying with Scotland and guaranteeing Connacht granted me two victories against England and Portugal in defensive wars. Vassal Portugal was annexed in 1445. Holy wars were started during the 1430's, as well as Horde colonizing thanks to a Sunni Zaporozhia. I was occupying almost all of Golden Horde territory at some point, but the AI found an unusual trick to force White Peace with everyone : they vassalized OPM Siberia who had rebelled away, then allied and called them to arms, which cancelled all current wars since you can't stay at war against some remote Horde you don't have a common border with. This saved the GH from seeing Lithuania trying to reconquer their territory while it was still possible. Now GH has annexed Siberia back and their trick is over, so war just started again but I have no troops there, since I'm about to invade the Ottomans and Morocco (allied together) after my victory against the Mamluks.
It looks all well advanced and tidy in the East, but I'm concerned about my rivals in Europe. I've lacked CBs against England and France, who have been suspiciously quiet for a long time. France has conquered Savoie and a good chunk of Naples. They're beating Burgundy now but I could possibly be their next target since I took their cores in Aquitaine from England a long time ago. England, for their part, still has got 14 provinces, they had time to recover and even managed to beat France and grab Caux, in a excommunication war I probably should have taken part in. I can clearly foresee them taking QFTNW within the next 20 years, and this is something, along with finding an occasion to beat France, that I really should be working on instead of keeping on with my holy wars. And I should'nt forget to get my core in Canarias before I lose it : it would be a shame to have this unique advanced launchpad to South America and not take advantage of it.
II. France :
This looks a tad more chaotic than with Spain - and it was. Started by guaranteeing Granada to lead the defensive war against Castille, but England and Portugal also attacked me right away. I guess only France can survive this and get the upper hand. Fortunately Scotland and Aragon had accepted my alliance offer, and I kept excellent relations with them until my prestige got higher and Aragon became my PU partner. This is always part of my strategy, and the common point between most of my games in Europe. Aragon provides a solid ally in the Mediterranean ; they get rich, with a decent fleet and aggressive, competent armies. You'd better be their friend than their foe anyway, if your are to beat the other main powers in Western Europe (I even got that PU several times in Byzantine games, that's a huge bodyguard in early wars against the Ottomans or Venice). Inheriting them will eventually provide a bunch of good provinces for no BB, but you can bide your time and use them at will before that : they won't get too big (which would lower the chances of inheritance somehow) because they never take QFTNW and won't colonize unsupervised by you.
The two first wars ended around 1405-1408 with crappy Charles VI trying his best to make the most of the defensive war peace deal : he almost hit his BB limit by taking 3 provinces from Castille and 4 from Portugal, while England was white peaced just in time before they could defeat Scotland (I had no fleet and really couldn't come to their help apart from taking Calais and the two provinces in Aquitaine). Then all I had to do was to wait for truces to expire and BB to cool down, expecting Charles VI would still outlive that heirless Aragon king in spite of leading armies and bumping his head on every fort and rebel army (because yes, you really expect that moron to pass away as fast as possible regardless of the PU aspect ; and his son Louis was a genius). Right before I got the PU in 1409, Aragon had called me to arms in Italy against Genoa, Sienna and the Pope... and Charles VI was excommunicated. When he finally died in 1423, it was a relief. The new king vassalized the Pope, as it was the best way to regain 200 relations with him... and annexed the Genoan province of Kaffa, thus starting the conquest of Horde Territory (the ugly border between me, Lithuania and the Ottomans used to be 3 provinces colonized by... Sicily, which blocked Pol-Lit progression for a while).
France tends to get involved in European affairs a lot more than Spain, who can just rely on their relatively isolated situation on their peninsula. You not only need to get your cores back from England and finish the 100 Year war ; Burgundy has some of your cores in Flanders and Antwerp too, which are not of the same culture group as you, and you want them, with the CoT and the two manufactories, before 1450, otherwise you just lose them as core provinces. That's a big deal because Burgundy is tough and protected by the Emperor, unless they become HRE themselves ; the latter is what happened in my case, and Burgundy was also allied with Switzerland, Bavaria and Austria... Fortunately, I had also gained a random PU with Bohemia, who kept Austria busy while I was kicking Burgundy's ass.
This explains why I still don't have started Holy Wars in the 1450's. But I'm working on it now. One last war against England, and the annexation of my vassal Portugal, will allow me to let Europe alone for a while because there is no other serious colonizer that will rise for the moment. There is one country which needs to be monitored though : Holland. They very often set free from their PU with Hainaut and, if not subjugated or annexed by anyone else, they are very likely to take QFTNW in the late 1400's. I'll also keep an eye on Brittany (who is in a PU with Austria, but that won't last ; I'lll probably get a chance to vassalize them after that).
III. England :
It is notorious that England has the best potential to become the prominent power in Western Europe, and therefore to conquer the whole world. You can see here that I'm already significantly stronger than in the two other games. Unchallenged starting fleet and good missions against your neighbours and rivals explain that. Of course I also started by guaranteeing Granada while conquering Ireland (Prawnstar style) but then again I added the PU with Aragon as my personal touch (this can be considered cheesy, I know). The alliance with Portugal didn't last long (they chose Scotland over me in my vassalization war)... I'll annex them very soon. I had to grab cores from Burgundy too, so after beating France I also had to spend more time in Europe than Spain. Hence my alliance with Bohemia, and the vassalization of Naples. I also had a very long regency between 1426 and 1440 - it's weird how Henry V seems programmed to die young. Holy Wars still started in the late 1440's and are going to move on without major issue. The flaw in this game is elsewhere, and it is obvious : I haven't been able to find an access to the Golden Horde. Poland has been very effective and it's only due to my (scarce) spies' interventions if they haven't gone into space yet. Venice and Aquileia also got some colonies there, but fortunately GH has managed to wipe them away. Muscovy has vanished, Novgorod and Ryazan are still paying tribute, so it's not too late for someone else to become the Horde's nightmare.
But wait... Austria has got out of control (they are HRE of course). I don't even know how they managed to annex OPM Georgia, who not so long ago was bravely fighting against GH. Instant inheritance maybe ? Now they have the inevitable Nationalist rebel army. And their fleet is just one cog. Meanwhile, my new mission is to vassalize Holland... who is not only a HRE member but Austria's direct ally. So, before I start new Holy wars against Algiers and Tunisia, I know what I have to do. This is going to be fun... that Georgian province of Imeretia has no great value in itself, but here it will play a major part in History, for it will grant me a common border with Golden Horde, Kara Qoyunlu, the Ottomans and the Mamluks... I'm not fond of renaming provinces in general, but this time I could definitely change from Imeretia to "the Eastern Door".
So, which one of the 3 games would be the best fit for a World Conquest ? England would come easy, but I also like France's punk style. I guess I'll have to play the 3 games until 1500 and see what becomes of each...