Metternich's Nightmare: France After Napoleonic Victory

[Tiberionus]

Napoleon's Europe
In 1815, the guns of Europe fell silent after a generation of new constant war. Much to the despair of the ancien regimes of Europe, the might of Napoleon, together with his Russian allies, proved insurmountable. Unable to close the blockade of Europe after the Battle of Trafalgar merely put the French fleet to flight, not destruction, the economies of Europe survived the British attempt to strangle the Continental system. Talleyrand similarly was isolated by Napoleon as his blatant corruption would prove too much for his once friend. Shut out from power, Talleyrand was not able to talk Tsar Alexander out of his support for the Despot of France. The final conflict, the War of the Sixth Coalition, saw two entire British armies captured in Europe alone as well as a third in the Americas against the upstart Americans, the Duke of Wellington captured in Spain by Napoleon, and Constantinople fell to a Franco-Russian army. Forces for peace forced the Pitt government of Britain to sue Napoleon for peace. For a decade after, Napoleon's Europe seemed unshakable and eternal, with his foes either cowed, or beaten into submission.

But this seemingly invincible foe, who had stared down the entirety of Europe and won, was not immortal. As the years passed, his health started to wane, his political and military instincts increasingly less sharp. Suddenly, in February 1821, the Emperor's health took a turn for the worse. By March, he was bedridden, with only his favored Marshals acting as his mouthpieces, and later, regents. As news of the great Emperor's illness spread, all of Europe held its breathe. Plots for independence were schemed, and even in France those long pushed in the shadows by the grandeur of Napoleon's victory saw a chance for the return of true liberty to France. In May, Napoleon would pass away in Paris of cancer, leaving his 10 year old son, Napoleon II, as Emperor of France. In truth, the military would quietly take over that very same day. As news of Napoleon's death spread, before a funeral had even been held, Europe erupted as all finally saw their chance to escape the French yoke.

The regime reacted poorly, and ordered an immediate new Levée En Masse to break this way of Revolution. No sooner had the conscription orders been released than the war weary streets of Paris joined the anti-Napoleonic revolts of Europe, rallied by the liberal noble; Gilbert du Motier, the Marquis de Lafayette. Once darling of the original Revolution, cast aside by his slide to the side to Order, the Marquis de Lafayette took up arms once more in the name of liberty, believing himself the only one who the rest of Europe could possibly accept of the seemingly inevitably coming 2nd Republic. The June Days would lead to young Napoleon II ordering his troops to stand down, announcing his abdication and left the country. In the coming settlements, the old Napoleonic Empire would be withdrawn from. A new day of Liberty dawned in France, even as chaos reigned in the rest of Europe from the sudden withdrawal. Vive la République!

Introduction​

Welcome to a slightly non-traditional Napoleonic Victory timeline, rendered in Victoria II: Heart of Darkness! I am using a self-modded version of the Historical Project Mod as the basis for this, creating a new time of a French held left bank of the Rhine, a Rhineland confederation, an east looking Prussia and more! More information about all the major players in the Timeline will be forthcoming, but in the meantime, for those curious for a Timeline I have provided a rough one. I also intend to provide some overviews of the newer or more changed countries if I have time. The general aim of this playthrough will be the defense of France's newfound holdings against allcomers, and more importantly - telling a story of Europe where otl it was the Age of Reaction, known for its long peace, it is a time of chaos, nationalism, and a Concert of Europe full of almost perfectly balanced players all equally wishing to kill each other (especially in Germany).
This is my 3rd AAR, but it has been over 3 years since my last pettered out. So may be rusty at first, but I hope I can entertain you with this story of mine! Prologue Coming soon!

Table of Contents (WIP)

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[Tiberionus]

Prologue: The Second Republic

“I have but two desires; for France to reignite the torch of liberty in Europe and for her return to the great ideals of liberty, fraternity, equality that the Emperor sought to crush. I do not seek power, nor do I wish to conquer the world. I am a mere soldier, and after my duty is done, I will put up my uniform, not put on a crown.” - Gilbert du Motier, the Marquis de Lafayette, on accepting the provisional title of President-General before the National Convention.
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Paris, a once dingy, cramped powder keg of a capital city, stands as one of the greatest of Europe after nearly two decades of renovations by Napoleon and later the Second Republic. Wide boulevards now often separate the medieval fronts of buildings, guiding traffic through the heart of Liberty in Europe, rivaled only by London in its wealth. At its political heart, in the Palais Bourbon, sits the Parliament of France - a body of 518 Deputies and 92 Senators who since 1922 have seen regular, biennial elections. The sole fount from which laws can be made, the Chamber of Deputies is the heart and soul of the 2nd Republic, with a Senate whose only powers lay in approving legislation and ratifying treaties and cabinet members. After its first sessions, the unstable governing coalitions of Parliament has rarely seen a stable ministry, with Premieres rarely making it from one election to the next. Yet the ministers around them rarely seem to change except for once major elections occur.
The Presidency remains a source of constancy for the Republic, however, giving France a sense of stability on the foreign stage, and a silent threat to the Chamber to not presume too much as the President may dissolve it at any time. Since its first President Motier, the Marquis de Lafayette, there has only been 3 presidents, all but one with a liberal leaning. To the current president elected in 1834, the conservative republican Adolphe Thiers, the world seems to be growing increasingly dangerous. Prussia marched into Poland, ending the fiction of its independence; The Rhineland Confederation itself, for so long a buffer between France and the turmoil of Europe, has increasingly centralised and begun to build its military. Russia and Austria look on at Prussia’s open expansionism with both horror and desire. At the same time, Blanquism is rising once more in France after being sated by the first Parliament’s of France, with Blanqui himself having recently maneuvered discontent over “abandoning Poland” to force a Premier to step down. And of course the ever present conservatives, seeking to turn the strong presidency of the Republic into a vehicle of Restoration…

Across the Atlantic, the only nation France could possibly call a ‘friend’ in the United States continues to enjoy its enviable position. It seized Canada from the weakened United Kingdom 20 years before, and remains an uncontested power in the Americas. Yet its isolationism and mistrust means that France can never be sure if the US is truly her friend, especially as it looks west, not east…

The world lies in tension going into 1936. The only question is, can France and her most cherished republic of liberty survive?

 

[Rensslaer]

@Tiberionus welcome to the Vicky II Forum! This is a fascinating setup! Imagine a post-Napoleonic Europe (without Waterloo) under the head of Lafayette and his philosophical successors...

I'll be tracking this, as I'm sure it will be really interesting.

Rensslaer

 

[HistoryDude]

I also like the setup. It looks like Russia and the US have great starting positions, but the other powers of Europe can still catch up...

I'm interested in seeing what a French Republic led by Lafayette will do. Will the new President-General increase ties with his old friends over in America?

 

[Tiberionus]

Chapter One

In 1832, as President Adolphe Thiers and his conservative republican government entered the last 2 years of their second term in power, they could look back in pride at the successes of their program. While Thiers and the three premiers that Parliament had gone through had been unable to pass the entirely protectionist tariffs he desired forced to settle for 10-15% rate tariffs over the desired 25-30%. However, his government’s policies had secured France’s finances, putting the nation on a sound footing that allowed it to expend capital on developing France herself, particularly in education. Between 1826 and 1832, literacy rates in France had shot up dramatically almost 20% to roughly 60% nationwide, providing just one of the two biggest policy objectives of the Moderate Republican coalition. Along with the educational investment, came encouragement in the growth of industry, letting France hold the 2nd largest industrial economy in the world. However this rapid industrialization was still well behind President Thiers’ desired goal of usurping the British hold of the greatest industrial power. By 1932, while the United Kingdom had almost a half million industrial workers, France still only had 200,000. France’s factories remained generally smaller and more dispersed than those of the United Kingdom, and more advanced luxury goods remained primarily the reserve of the artisan workshop.
Despite the economic successes of the Moderate Republican government, every election its majorities actually shrank. The isolationism from the overthrow of Napoleon was fading, killed by the victory of reaction in Russia and later Poland. To the liberal Republicans and further still the Blanquists, they believed France should once more become the great beacon of freedom in Europe. To the old Bonapartists, that France merely shrugged to challenges of the order of Europe ordained by Napoleon himself was offensive to them. Faced with increasing pressure from the left and right to act decisively on the international stage with the soon to be held election of 1832 threatening to completely unseat the Moderates majority. President Adolf Thiers and his Premier Alphonse de Lamartine considered a path forward to ‘restore France’s dignity to the Congress of Europe’.

Such an opportunity presented itself when Italy asked the foreign minister if he would support Italian intervention in Naples to remove the old Bonapartist King Joachim Murat. While the government considered it unlikely to win over many hardline Bonapartists increasingly threatening the conservative hold in the provinces, an active role in deposing the absolute person rule of Murat could fracture the liberal coalition. A reply was sent to Italy, offering a direct French reinforcement to secure Naples with naval and land force support. At the same time, back-channel communications were sent to the other powers in Europe declaring France’s intention to seek to “Remove the last stain of Bonapartism in Europe in the name of peace”. While Britain and Austria especially was concerned by France getting involved in Italy once more, French assurances that it was a simple matter of honor and a withdrawal would quickly follow would keep the other powers out of the conflict.
By January 28th, France and Italy had officially declared war on Naples, with President Thiers declaring that it would be a quick, decisive conflict to show Europe that France still deserved respect militarily and that liberty and freedom must win over despotism. By March, the Meditterean Fleet would have Naples and Sicily blockaded after landing an army of 50,000 under General Bernard Manan to support Italian actions.

In a pair of decisive battles in May of 1832, the French army would take the lead and break the back of the Napolese army. With its overwhelming artillery and cavalry advantage, the armies of Naples were quickly broken and forced into retreat, losing almost or over half their army in the Battles of Aquila and Naples. The broken remnants that didnt flee into the fortress in the city of Naples would be chased down by the Italian army and forced to surrender.

King Murat would soon surrender Naples to Italy to avoid a lengthy siege for no clear purpose, in exchange France agreed to allow the elder king to go into exile in the United States. By August of ‘32, all of Naples and Sicily had been secured for Italy, and as promised, French troops immediately began withdrawing from Italy. In France, the short, successful war that even ended with a small indemnity from the seized treasury of Naples proved extremely popular. It was, for once, a short war that did re-secure the government’s position.

Postwar map of Europe, August 1832

Further to the delight of Adolphe Thiers, near simultaneously France would receive offers from both the United States and Austria asking for an alliance. To Austria and Metternich, the decisive French move followed by its withdrawal showed its “repentance” for the ‘crimes’ of Napoleon, and more importantly, that France could potentially be a counterweight to the increasingly aggressive Prussia. However, as tempting as an official alliance that could isolate Prussia and secure France’s position could be, it was politically untenable. Austrophobia remained high in France, and allying with the chief architect of Reaction would be a terrible blow to the image Theirs sought for France. To the United States, their asking to restore the old Bond of Friendship had a very cynical angle to it - the United States was growing increasingly concerned with sightings of British patrols off the coast of Quebec and activity in the Caribbean. The new Bond of Friendship offered would be entirely defensive in nature, as the United States was unwilling to bring itself into potential European conflict. Despite its limited nature, the government would immediately agree to the American proposal, hoping it would be able to build up America towards a strong, full alliance whose navy could potentially break the potent British navy’s dominance.

The Moderate Republican coalition was riding high going into the Parliamentary election of 1832 in October. Stocks and bonds were riding at all time highs as confidence in the government soared and several new factories opened. Between the jubilant reports from abroad and at home, the Liberal Republican coalition shattered, with nearly all of the 30 Senatorial seats of the upper house up for re-election going to the Conservatives, with the far right Bonapartist-Royalist coalition also picking up a couple of seats. Left with a strong hand going into the remaining two years of his term as President, Thiers was further encouraged by Lamartine being reconfirmed as Premier - his first Premier to survive an election. With this decisive victory in hand, the conservative government continued its seemingly successful focus on domestic affairs, growing the economy and fighting illiteracy.

1837 would unfortunately start with yet another conflict in Europe, as an anti-Russian revolt took power in Finland. Distracted by internal unrest in the Don region, the Russian reaction was slow, giving Sweden an idea - leading to a two front war that would see Finnish resistance swiftly collapse. Faced with a conflict over the rightful ruler of Finland, Russia would be forced to back down from a war with Sweden by threats from Prussia and Austria, who saw a chance to continue slowly reducing Russia’s power from its Napoleonic zenith. However in the streets of Paris, this conflict proved to be merely interesting front page news. After all - what was Finland but a far off land of forests to France?

On the more important domestic front; such was the confidence of President Thiers in the position of his coalition, that when news arrived from the ambassador to Switzerland that they had given Louis Napoleon leave to seek asylum there from the US, and that he was using his position to try to stir up anti-government, pro Bonapartist restoration sentiments; Thiers simply scoffed at a proposal to demand his expedition. This nephew of the great Bonaparte was just a parody, seeking attention and wishing he could be even a quarter of the greatness of his uncle. He was of no threat, especially not to the well established Republic, no matter his pretensions.
The remainder of 1837 and 1838 would prove this correct, as the years sailed by for the government of France surprisingly smoothly. The times continued to improve for France, with the factory labor force more than doubling from 1836 to over 300,000 workers, with a surprising area of success proving to be the armament industry. With the constant threat of war in the east, small arms and artillery proved in constant demand - for which French factories delivered almost in as much quantity as those of the United Kingdom. Further, it was estimated that every month, almost half a million French would graduate from government subsidized literacy programs that were rapidly expanding the fully literate population of the country.

Going into the October election of 1838, the Moderate Republicans felt they had much to show for, and almost nothing to be used against them. Their campaigning was thus lax and self-confident, leading to a somewhat surprising loss in the polls for the Senate, even as their dominate position in the Chamber of Deputies was maintained. Regardless - as President Adolf Thiers stepped down, making way for Premier Alphonse de Lamartine to become the 3rd President of the 2nd Republic of France with Jacques Laffitte being chosen by Parliament as his Premier. He would have much to be self-assured that his time in office would be just as fruitful for the conservatives and France herself as that as Adolphe Thiers’ presidency.

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Maps showing the situation of areas of importance to France going into 1839. Most of the rest of the world is unchanged from otl.
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Author's Note: Generally my current strategy and roleplay for France is focusing on getting the small intellectual pops up while creating centers of industry with high levels of craftsmen in Il-de-France, around Artois, and the Rhone Valley. In foreign policy, my main concern is the Rhineland Confederation as they hold many cores to provinces of mine and are allied with Russia. The United Kingdom is another mid-level concern area, as theyre likely to try to contain any efforts I make towards overseas expansion that isn't things like further controlling Algeria. Austria, Prussia, and Russia all three seem quite likely to want to tear each other apart, so we shall see where that goes.
Thank you for your comments and interest, and hope you enjoyed the read!

 

[HistoryDude]

The Swedish conquest of Finland is interesting. Does it show a greater problem with Russia?

The Bonapartist coalition should be broken by that war. Thiers was smart there. However, this move also makes Italy more powerful... France will want to ensure that they remain a friendly nation. Speaking of which, why does Italy control Sardinia?

Do you plan to seize territory from the Confederation of the Rhine?