Personally I'd sod Livonia and the Baltic and focus on Scandinavian unification and later on colonizing what is today known as "Canada." Easy way to become the leading producer and trader in fur which is sure to fill my coffers with sweet, sweet income. Whenever I try to establish the Swedish dominance of the Baltic it always ends up badly with either everyone and their mothers ganking me or just a slow bleeding of my coffers due to having armies and navies that are too large for the relatively poor income I get from my provinces, even accounting for fur and lumber trade.
Except fur is pretty much just average at best. It doesn't give enough income to make it worth focusing on obtaining, it's only slightly better than fish and about the same value as salt. You don't want either of those in your colonies. The supply of fur is likely to be plenty as well in comparison with the demand.