And then there were 7. Two wolves, two friends and three villagers.
This is starting to look rather grim now. I think we can only afford a single lynched villager before the wolves win the game if I'm counting correctly?
I seem to have been wrong about most of what I was thinking after Yvanoff died, but then that seems to have been true for everyone since all lynch candidates except for Cailean(who lived turned) out to be villagers.
Some things to note:
Dedonus is apparently very steadfast in pushing Cailean on day 3, 4 and now also day 5. Not sure what this means.
My thought on Cailean being innocent because of being runup against Yvanoff is now a fairly moot point since all the day 2 Castor/Cailean voters turned out as villagers...
Alynkio and Dedonus seem to be clearing me for my Yvanoff vote. Obviously I know myself that I'm a villager, but from an outside perspective I'm not sure I'd trust my own voting record. Might seem almost a bit too quick to clear me. But I probably shouldn't go around yelling at people to go make cases against me
I'm having a lot of difficulty having any idea of what the day 2 non-voters could possibly be.
Cailean got run up on day 2. The idea of lynching her based on the theory of her/Arkasas being the wolves brought up by Dedonus and Alynkio seems interesting.
The only problem I see is that if she turns out innocent we'd be without any definte lead while we need to succesfully hit two wolves in a row to have any shot at winning.
It also wouldn't immediately give certainty about Arkasas being wolf since Sander coud've also been a wolf that decided to make a wolf tie less likely.
Alynkio's record doesn't say much beyond the day 3 tie he made, which I'm unsure how to place.
Similar with Alxeu: I haven't really noticed anything that would point in either direction.
Dedonus did vote on day 2, but his vote wasn't joined by anyone else. I don't think that yields any more information than not voting at all except for the fact that he was around.
That still leaves the Yvanoff voters:
Arkasas pushed Yvanoff ahead of a tie with Cailean, which could've been him alibi voting or him trying to at least save Castor. For the first possiblity I have no idea how to confirm/deny it, the second would be better to hit Cailean to see if she was being saved at all first rather than someone who potentially was a villager killing a wolf.
Sander doesn't seem to have done much sketchy stuff I think. His vote on Yvanoff could've been a wolf trying to prevent a tie between two other wolves, but that theory could be better explored by using the one (possilble) villager lynch we've left to gather information by hitting Cailean first.
It could've also been an alibi vote, perhaps even more likely his is an alibi compared to Arkasas.
Well this post got longer than I expected...
So from what I can see there isn't really a truly good case out there.
If we lynch Cailean we might get some information on potential wolves. I'm not sure if it would give enough to pinpoint the wolves though, except if one or more of the suspects turn out to be friends.
It should also be noted that this only gives information about people we already know something about, while leaving us just as clueless as before about the other day 2 non-voters and Dedonus.
But I rather doubt targetting any of them would give us enough information to pinpoint the other wolf at all even if we get lucky and they turn out wolf, I think the best course of action is to join Alynkio and Dedonus and go after Cailean, though it could be rather risky if she turns out to be another villager. In that scenario we have 2 wolves, 3 villagers and very little information. Our only hope of survival if that happens is the friends getting through the night one one piece.
VOTE CAILEAN
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