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Day 3:

Could the monsters go three in a row? Well, no. They followed the previous logic of lynching the most obscure monster. In this case it was the yoghyr. Turns out it was the last of the species, too. And with the remains mauled badly, no-one knows what a yoghyr looks like.

Night 3:

Some monsters didn't go to sleep out of fear of being killed. If only that had helped Gollum. A loud scream pierced the silence of the night, but when the residents rushed to his room, Gollum was already gone, never having regained his precious.


Najs the villager is lynched
gigau the villager is hunted
 
the_hdk will sub for EUROO7
Najs will sub for Nautilu
 
Damn it ! Lynchec in Big and hunted in Lite ? Come on !!! :sad:


By the way, sub me in when there is a spot...

Edit... if there is a free spot at some point :p
 
Last edited:
Sub Please.
 
We have already clearly established that Tamius deliberately voted away from the tie, trying to save Boris and perhaps even a second wolf in that tie.

So why, of all people, did he vote Split then and there? Who hadn't even gotten a single vote before? Wouldn't you try to slip in an alibi vote in such a situation?

Ah, now I see what you are referring to. And why I didn't quite see it.
No, I wouldn't 'try to slip in an alibi vote in' in such a situation. Because it would be utterly pointless :p


I see it like this: There are three options:

1) Three wolves in a tie. That would suggest he's trying to get a fourth candidate in the race, in which case SPLIT is undoubtedly a villager.
2) Two wolves in the tie. Still too many for comfort. Again, trying to get a new candidate in the race, therefore .. SPLIT is probably a villager.
3) One wolf in the tie. Big chance of having a villager lynched today. Throwing his vote away to try and stay out of it, dodging responsibility. That however tells us nothing about SPLIT.

I do not however see that vote as something that has much 'alibi vote' potential. Tamius must have known that that vote was unlikely to affect the outcome of the lynch much.
If you're going to throw your vote away, who cares what you put it on?
Sure, he could have thrown it on a packmate, but it wouldn't have done much for him.

All in all, I think it really depends on what the other people's identities in that tie were.

The post that remade the tie between Rendap and Tamius the Evil Waffle yesterday, after gigau and Randy (who switched off again) broke it in tamius' "favor". Just as good a candidate as Split IMO, assuming of course that the wolves are dumb and fail to sell out at least one or two of their packmates, which clearly has already happened.

I like this piece of analysis.

Vote nautilu

(No, I'm not very focused on analysing this game either. Sorry.)

.. erm.. wait.

tasty? hé? a slip of the tongue there? :p

anyways I'm back ion business. anyone care to tell me what I missed? :)

Not much.
You know, I'm really tempted to sub out of this game. My mind definitely isn't on it right now.
 
Your logic is far from its usual quality here Randakar...

I see it like this: There are three options:

1) Three wolves in a tie. That would suggest he's trying to get a fourth candidate in the race, in which case SPLIT is undoubtedly a villager.

The people tied were Boris, Euro and Najs. If those were 3 wolves, then Tamius is the fourth and then it's not even about candidates, it's simple maths that Split isn't a wolf.

2) Two wolves in the tie. Still too many for comfort. Again, trying to get a new candidate in the race, therefore .. SPLIT is probably a villager.

Ah, but SPLIT had NO votes yet. If you need an extra candidate, pick someone who has a vote already! Tamius is known to like ties, so putting a fourth guy at 2 votes wouldn't raise suspicion. I expect him to know that.

3) One wolf in the tie. Big chance of having a villager lynched today. Throwing his vote away to try and stay out of it, dodging responsibility. That however tells us nothing about SPLIT.

I do not however see that vote as something that has much 'alibi vote' potential. Tamius must have known that that vote was unlikely to affect the outcome of the lynch much.
If you're going to throw your vote away, who cares what you put it on?
Sure, he could have thrown it on a packmate, but it wouldn't have done much for him.
All in all, I think it really depends on what the other people's identities in that tie were.

But a 'throwaway' vote is the perfect time for an alibi. You're a wolf, you don't want to vote anywhere near the tie for fear of exposing yourself. You need to vote someone. When are you going to get a better time to cast a vote on a packmate without putting him in danger? Tamius clearly wasn't thinking ruthlessly, he'd have voted Boris if he was.

For me, the odds are better than 50% that that was an alibi vote.

But let's not forget that that wasn't actually the key to my suspicion, Split's own votes were far from innocent. Although, I must say that Najs' innocence makes his day 1 vote less worthy of suspicion.
 
Since I have no idea, I'm just going to post stuff.

My thoughts on Gradiant:

On day 1 he flirted with a tie, voting Euro to make it, and then unvoting him and later voting Najs to make a tie. Never voted boris and always tried to keep the three way tie. Odd, but I've seen people do it before. Could be an obvious attempt at saving Boris, or it could be a newbie just being a newbie. I haven't played much with him so I can't really tell. Does anyone know if he is a smart player? An average player? A total newbie who attempts to obviously save someone? I don't know. Moving on to day 2, we get this:

Vote Najs


Unvote Najs, Vote Tamuis

Weird. Why vote someone, just to unvote them in the same post? It's unlike people to do that without posting their thinking in the post somewhere. This just makes me think "total newbie". But who knows. It was also pretty quick after Rendap suggested tamius as a target, is this the work of a wolf who saw another wolf abiling on Boris and trying to fix his mistake by doing the same? Or just a really weird move by a newbie? :wacko:

Second is Comm Cody. He has been happily bandwagoning without posting a reason the entire game. He jumped on Najs early to put him up to 3 votes to Euro's and snoop's 1, then continues on day 2 to bandwagon tamius. Same argument here: was he a newbie that was told by someone to alibi vote? Or is he just doing random stuff. The lack of reasons and the pushing a single target ahead would normally make me suspicious, but is it just him not knowing what he's doing?

The next is randakar. randakar claims that he is not a wolf because he has not alibied on one yet. Which I would agree with to some extent, but randakar doesn't like to make obvious alibi votes. On day 1 he switched from snoop to euro after euro had gotten some votes already (I'll come back to euro/hdk soon) and then on day 2, he helps push tamius 2 votes ahead, and decides that this was a bad idea, and switches off to a a third party, Nautilu, who only has 1 vote at the time. Which confuses me, as randy obviously chose tamius as his favourite target, but then changed when he saw the count. It's obvious why he didn't put it on Rendap - he stated earlier that he didn't like Rendap as a target, and it would still lead to tamius getting lynched, and he could not be accused of bandwagoning if tamius wasn't a wolf.

Next is Euro. He has already been up once, but because reis was hunted night 0, he's a decent suspect. Of course, any player who knows anything about euro knows that he love to get reis killed. Euro suggests this is a great way to frame him, and I agree, I've considered it as a possibility myself. The next question would be: who would consider this type of thing ahead of time? There's a few of them (myself included) who would consider doing this type of thing, but that would lead to issues if there are too many people in a pack who would consider that strategy. The easiest way to determine if it's a frame or not, would be to lynch Euro (sorry HDK) and just see if he's a wolf or not. We do have 3 days until parity.

Next is Nautilu. Nautilu gets me attention mainly for a vote on day 2:

The vote count looks like this:
Tamius -4- Rendap, Gradiant, Cody, gigau,
Rendap -3- Najs, Split, Kinge,
Gradie -1- EUROO7,
Nautilu -2- Snoopdogg, Randy


And Nautilu does this:

Vote Rednap, he is not me and even naughtier, so a very good candidate.

Why not vote tamius? If you're voting purely to save yourself, the obvious choice is the one with the most votes. And then HDK manages to come along and get the right vote. Is this an obvious attempt at saving tamius? Is Nautilu really that, well, dumb? There's no seer, tamius is obviously a favourite to get lynched and he votes Rendap? That's a silly decision for a wolf to make.
 
Day 1:

Boris - 5 - gigau(80), snoop(87), Kingepyon(89), EUROO7/hdk2, hdk,
Najs - 4 - Nautilu/Najs2(70), Comm. Cody(78), Rendap(90), Gradiant,
EUROO7/hdk2 - 3 - SPLIT(82), Falc1.0(88), Randy,
Comm. Cody - 1 - Boris(79)
randakar - 1 - Eternaly_Lost(falc2.0) (86)
Split -1- Tamius
tamius -1- Najs

Falc hunted

Day 2:

tamius - 5 - Rendap, Gradiant, Comm. Cody, gigau, the_hdk
Rendap - 4 - Najs, SPLIT, Kingepyon, Nautilu/Najs2
Nautilu/Najs2 - 2 - snoopdogg, randakar
Gradiant - 1 - EUROO7/hdk2

No-vote - Eternaly_Lost (Falc2), tamius

hdk hunted

Day 3:

(3) Najs - gigau, Cody, Kingepyon

(2) Split - E_L/Falc2, Najs
(2) Randy - Rendap, SPLIT

(1) E_L/Falc2 - snoop
(1) gigau - Gradiant
(1) EURO/hdk2 - Randy

Gigau hunted

hdk2 subs for Euro, Najs2 for Nautilu
 
Continuing on with snoop!

Snoop put a pretty important vote on Boris. There's alibi voting, and then there's getting your packmate killed. This falls under getting your packmate killed. I've seen it happen, so I'm not going to completely rule snoop out, but he's likely not a wolf. On day two he puts a vote on Nautilu, doesn't say why, and keeps his vote there. This move is consistent with day 1, when he took a vote off of Najs, who had a couple vote lead, and put it onto Boris. Why Nautilu instead of Rendap? Maybe he knew tamius was a wolf and didn't want to seem like he was saving someone? I don't really know, but it's something to think about. Day 3 saw an early vote on E_L/Falc that stuck. A decent reason to lynch E_L, little information and inactivity, with 4 days remaining until parity. He missed me in his list of "The people who've voted wolfs", though, which makes me sad :( If snoop is a wolf, this is a game well played. Consistent with his votes, with only the Nautilu vote on day 2 making me question him.

Rendap is next. Rendap falls under the category of providing unintentional(?) assistance to a known wolf. Lucky for us, hdk was there to set us right, and we ended up getting Boris anyway. Rendap did do something interesting on the end of day 1, start of day 2. He pushed tamius for an odd throw away during a 3 way tie, and suggested tamius for a lynch. He was right. Considering Rendap was up for a lynch due to his bad luck(?) on day 1, this really saved him. So is this Rendap creating an alibi for himself at the expense of a packmate? I hope not, or I haven't been paying attention to Rendap very well. He doesn't seem like the type to be that cut-throat. Maybe he can vote a packmate as an alibi, but lead the charge in getting one lynched? I don't think Rendap is that kind of player.

On to the_split! Split voted for euro on day 1 and rendap on day 2. Both of them were considered the "obvious" choices at the time. Rendap for "assisting" a wolf on day 1, and Euro for the reis hunt. Can't really fault him for those votes, but on day 3 he makes an odd vote. He has 2 votes and Najs has 3. Instead of putting a vote on Najs as a way of security he pushes Randy to two votes when there is only 20 mins left until deadline. A questionable decision. He also hasn't voted for a wolf, which isn't necessarily a bad thing, considering people love their alibi votes these days, but it isn't a good thing either. I feel the same way about split as I do about euro, lynch him and find out, we have the time, though I would prioritize euro as a higher target than split.

Last is E_L/Falc. This one is hard. A throw away on day 1, and a vote on split on day 3. Falc is one who will kill of his packmates in order to make himself appear "clear" so it's very hard to actually clear Falc. Falc is a good target for a lynch because we have time (I'm not suggesting we lynch all of euro, split, Falc - just 1 to cut down the confusion later) as we know nothing about him and he is very likely going to alibi vote on someone later.

Anyway, I'm done posting stuff. I hope my random thoughts will help someone see something.
 
Let's see what we got if we move the points forward:

1½ point for Cody
1 point for Snoop, Kinge, Euro/hdk2, Me and Gradiant.
½ point for Split
0 for falc2, randy and Nautilu/najs2

The most cleared villager was hunted and one of the most suspicious was lynched.

1 thing I have noticed.

Day 2 with 7½ hours till deadline, I was tied with Tamius when Nautilu tied me. Since then only 1 post was made and that was hdk breaking the tie with 3 minutes to go.

1 post in 7½ hours on day 2???? What the heck happened this day???

People were not online perhaps? Well, if you crossreference to big, we get the following activity:

Tamius: 12 posts
Gigau: 11 posts
Naulitu: 2 posts
Randy: 9 posts
Najs: 5 posts
Split: 14 posts

Of these, Only Nautilu did not post within the last 1½ hours. Tamius, Najs and Gigau are dead but Randy and Split were also happy to let a tie stand with a now known wolf and an unknown.

But neither voted Tamius! Split was voting me and Randy was after Nautilu.

I think that at least 1 of these 2 are a wolf.

Now, Randy have been very quiet this game, but there are also somethings that makes me wonder. 1 is the thing I pointed out yesterday with Randy claiming to have voted within 1 hour and it turned out to be 4½ hours. Comment to that: "Muh. I fail at timekeeping "

Falc also points out earlier today that there are some flaws in the reasoning.

I see more and more points that Randy is 1 of the wolves we are looking for. That also plays in with 2 hunts: 1, the hunt on Reis on day 1 to incriminate Euro (if Euro is a villager) as well as the hunt on Gigau. Gigau was at that time the most cleared villager and from earlier games I know that Randy likes to get rid of those to keep the Least cleared villagers around.

Only thing that I see counting in his favour is that he did not push me in the lead day 2. (unless I'm the last wolf of course - in which case I would be extremely stupid pushing for Tamius day 1/2).

Now, looking at Split:

Got a vote from Tamius and since then he's voted me and Randy. The Vote on Randy could be a dangerous alibi vote, like Tamius' vote could have been.

He votes Euro/hdk2 day 1 and keeps it there.
He votes me for the 3rd vote on Najs day 2 (where I tie Boris, Najs and Euro I believe was the third candidate)
Day 3 he votes Randy with 30 minutes to do for "keeping it close".
With 23 minutes back he answers Najs: "I am a very bad candidate..... Falc is barking up a wrong tree just because he does not like me"

These are the only 4 posts he makes these 3 days. Quiet Wolf? Or just Quiet with a poor voting record?

Now for Nautilu/Najs2, whom are being pushed by Randy today.

Starts with a vote on Najs1, that sticks all day.
Day 2 he ties me with Tamius and Randy votes him.
Day 3 he does not vote.

But that day 2 tie came from the following from Randy (post 151):

"Too many on tamius here.

Unvote tamius23

Not sure I like rendap as an alternative."

Nautilu can get the same questions as Split. Quiet Wolf or just Quiet with a poor voting record.

I don't believe that Randy and Nautilus can be packmates based on Randy voting Naulitu later AND going for him today.

The More I look at things the More Furry Randy looks! That's where my vote goes today (again)!

VOTE Randakar
 
I like this piece of analysis.

Vote nautilu

(No, I'm not very focused on analysing this game either. Sorry.)

.. erm.. wait.

It seems you fail to notice that my former self said that Nautilu is a good target if the wolves are dumb. Since I am Nautilu now I can confirm that at least he is not that dumb. I don't know about Split though, but I've gotten the impression that he is the kind of person who plays on his own terms and does quite a lot to win. I don't doubt at all that he would sell out a packmate.
 
It seems you fail to notice that my former self said that Nautilu is a good target if the wolves are dumb. Since I am Nautilu now I can confirm that at least he is not that dumb. I don't know about Split though, but I've gotten the impression that he is the kind of person who plays on his own terms and does quite a lot to win. I don't doubt at all that he would sell out a packmate.

That is also my impression and the problem at the moment is that we have almost no information on Split. Same can be said for you though. You'r still both suspicious in my book as well... :)
 
Good grief, I've thrown a packmate under the bus once and I already have a reputation for it? Tsss... :happy:

Either way, I must say that I find Randakar's overall tone a bit off. This is strange because he's usually pretty even no matter what role he's got. That makes it hard to see his current behavior as proof of a hidden canine nature...


That being said, I feel day 1 is still our best source of information. Tamius' vote on SPLIT caught a few people's attention and I'm still not certain what to make of it. I think it makes most sense if there were two wolves in the tie and we already know that Najs 1.0 wasn't a wolf.

So VOTE EUROO7the_hdk 2.0
 
gigau and humancalculator have been added to the sub list.

I certainly hope they WON'T get a chance to play :mad:

Votecount, 8 hours 30 minutes to deadline:

randakar - 2 - Rendap, Najs
the_hdk - 2 - Kingepyon, Falc
Najs - 1 - randakar

Not-voted: snoop, the_hdk, Gradiant, SPLIT, Comm. Cody