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The Soviet Union after the Treaty of Kirovograd IV:
In Stalin’s Wake


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"When our actions do not,
Our fears do make us traitors."

Macbeth, 4. 2


Malenkov´s reforms
During the first days of January, Soviet Union seemed to be on the brink of a new war. Major recalling of Red Army reservists had taken place in December, and currently ongoing large military exercises in western parts of the country were closely followed. And although the official media was still silent about the situation in "lost territories", the rumors of wide uprisings in occupied parts of Russia spread like wildfire among the common citizens. Therefore the early news of Stalin´s death had a huge impact to the whole country. The first signs of something being wrong appeared to the streets of the new capitol Kuibyshev in the morning hours on 5th of January. In the postwar period, Stalin had operated through two committees: The Politburo, over which he almost always presided, and the main Bureau of the Council of Ministers, which nearly always converged without him.

Now armed patrols of "Beria´s army", the men who made up the MVD and the MGB filled the streets Kuibyshev. With special orders they sealed off the capitol with roadblocks. In the city itself the commander of the Volga Military Disctrict, offivers of the city´s army garrison and the Guards were all put under arrest. Meanwhile the Politburo and Sovmin Bureau were summoned to an emenergy meeting.

The Exclusive Committee - Sovmin Bureau – was a postwar creation of Stalin himself. This new organization was the most dramatic postwar reform Stalin had made to the Soviet top-level leadership. In nature it was a new, tight decision-making unit bound by a common expertise of regular and exclusive meetings. Within the organization, each deputy received individual assignments, normally relating to the sectoral bureau under their command or to commissions they headed. They were usually accompanied by deadlines, and the Bureau´s secretariats saw to it that members received reminders if a deadline had been breached. None of the deputy premiers was exempt from these schedules, and even the most senior figures, such as Beria and Voznesenskii were held to them. Far from being an inchoate and loosely organized body as the Politburo had become at this time, the main Sovmin bureau became a tight and disciplined ship. Following Stalin´s reorganization, no one person or faction controlled the activities of main Sovmin Bureau. Initially the chairmanship went to the "rotating leadership" between Beria, Voznesenskii and Malenkov. With no clear head to turn on, emerging conflict among Bureau members were addressed simply to “the Bureau” for consideration. Rather than one individual coming to dominate the body, the power to set the agenda and determine decisions was spread equally among Bureau members, thus elevating the significance of meetings of the committee itself. It was therefore understandable that the most dramatic decisions regarding the new leadership of the Soviet Union were made in the emergency session of Sovmin Bureau, and not in the Politburo that was currently firmly in hand of supporters of Malenkov and Beria (after many notable politicians were temporarily under arrest by Beria´s orders) After this meeting the Council of Ministers and the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet publicly declared a form of collective leadership.

After Politburo had confirmed the changes in leadership, Malenkov became the new Prime Minister of USSR and the First Secretary of the CPSU, Andrei Gromyko became the new Foreign Minister and Nikolai Bulganin was appointed as the new Minister of Defense. When Beria was then named as one of Malenkov´s four first Deputy Prime Ministers, rumors whispering that “Stalin had been murdered and Beria and Malenkov had a hand in it" began to circle among the Soviet leaders. The election of Malenkov himself wasn´t that surprising, since despite this poor standing among some of his fellow politicians, he had been Stalin´s most trusted subordinates. He became a full member of Politburo in 1946, and after that it had been rather clear that Stalin was grooming Malenkov to succeed him. Malenkov begun his new career by one of the most dramatic decisions of his whole political career. He called off the top-secret pre-planned attack against German-held Russian territory. Commanders of the Red Army already hated his guts because of the active role Malenkov had played in Stalin´s purges. But these orders of stopping the offensive preparations and leaving the popular uprising in occupied territories to it´s fate were a decision that made him a traitor in the eyes of the Red Army leadership. The generals could not forgive this nuclear policy turnabout of Malenkov in which he stated that “Our attack would only lead into atomic war, and it would mean the end of Soviet Union and whole civilization.”

As the looming war was thus narrowly avoided for now, Malenkov continued in his new role by offering hope to the peasant farmers who made up the majority of Soviet population. Without consulting any of the leaders of the Communist party, he broke with a twenty-five year Soviet policy of developing heavy industry while a short-changing agricultural development and production of consumer goods. He proposed to “raise sharply in two or three years the population´s supply of foodstuffs and manufactured goods, meat and meat produce, fish and fish products, butter, sugar, eggs, confectionery, textiles, clothes, footwear, crockery, furniture and other cultural and household goods.” This could only be done by cutting back on armaments production and military appropriations. Subsequently Malenkov announced that production of food was on the rise and the threat of famine had disappeared. Malenkov was now playing an extremely dangerous game.

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Beria´s protection enabled Malenkov to initiate ambitious reform programs - but these changes gained them many enemies.

The entire Soviet establishment, and particularly the Communist party had been previously committed to maintaining a large military force and gaining on the Reich on the armaments race. Even as Malenkov´s popularity surged with the public, the resistance of the Soviet establishment to his policies stiffened. Malenkov´s optimism regarding food production was also unrealistic. There were, for example, almost nine million fewer head of cattle in the USSR than there had been twenty-five years earlier. Therefore a special emergency conference of agricultural experts met in Moscow in March 1953. They had found out that Soviet food production was even lower than estimated, and now the question was what to do about it.

First Secretary Malenkov answered by initiating the previously planned economic reform program in the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic. This ambitious project aimed to turn 32 million acres of uncultivated land in the West Siberian Plain of Kazakhstan and southwestern Siberia into new agricultural region. The targeted territory was larger than the combined agricultural lands of Great Britain, France and Spain put together. A new "worker´s army" of 250 000 volunteers recruited by Communist party and the Young Communist League were dispatched to the steppes. There they build huts, farm building, outhouses, villages and ultimately whole new towns. Enthusiastically these pioneers plowed up the fields, planted them with spring wheat and harvested it later on. And since tragic suicide of Trofim Denisovich Lysenko (he hanged himself few days after the Treaty of Kirovograd in 1943) had created much new discussion among the Soviet biology experts, the remaining opponents of Lysenkoism were also allowed to once again test their agricultural theories as a secret part of this new agricultural project. The results of their work would lead into the quiet abandonment of all previous VASKhNIL theories and agricultural "research" during late 1950´s.

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By making fundamental changes to the basis of Soviet agricultural methods and taking wide new areas into cultivation the Soviet economy was able to slowly recover from the losses of WWII.

In August 1953 the spectacular first results of the program were announced as a part of the New Course - a revision of the Fifth Five-Year Plan that reduced expenditures for heavy industry and the military somewhat in order to satisfy consumer demands of consumer goods, housing, and services. Priorities were set to consumer goods and light industry, food production and a more permissive policy towards private plots and animals of collective farm members. While the official policy praised the new successes of Stalinist collectivization of agriculture, in reality the new farming communities of "Virgin Lands" were silently becoming a modern equivalent of people that the Soviet system had called "kulaks" just few decades ago. Despite the later problems with soil erosion, the Virgin Lands-program and subtle changes in agricultural policy improved the productivity of Soviet agriculture and allowed the Soviet Union to reach self-sustenance. Malenkov expanded his reforms into Soviet administration as well. In March 1953, four of the eight existing engineering Ministries were amalgamated into one grossly inflated Ministry of Machine Building. In 1953 the Ministry of Medium Machine Building was established to develop nuclear weapons and nuclear power, and the Ministry of Radio Industry was established with responsibility for developing air defense radars and related electronic systems. Both ministries became closely controlled by Beria´s MVD.

As a substitute to Stalin´s will and and whimsy, the postwar administration now promoted committee systems, administrative procedures and high degree of technocratic rationality. Soviet party and state institutions gained greatly from as the previous pattern of constant crises, emergencies and upheavals spurred on by purges and terror was replaced by routinism, professionalization and growing bureaucracy. Middle stratum of technicians, managers and state officials continued to expand and establish itself within the Soviet system, providing a vital source of support and stability to the new regime. Whereas Stalins´s personal priorities had been keeping an eye to the military and international situation, all new priorities were set on reconstruction. As a result decree of normality to social and economic life returned after decades of upheaval and the devastating war.

Deprivations of early postwar period had paradoxically strengthened the stability of Stalin´s regime. Population had been too exhausted by the daily survival struggle to organize social protest and had lived on in passive acceptance with dashed hopes of a healthier, wealthier and freer future. Now when conditions finally were actually improving, the new regime received credit for the improvement and there was a widespread popular relief. Yet the good mood of the common people was not shared by the Soviet politicians who were fiercely opposing Malenkov´s reforms.

Beria and the Bomb
The atomic bomb had occupied a central place in Soviet postwar military policy. Stalin had given the highest priority to defense against atomic attacks and to the development of Soviet nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles for them. He did not, however, regard the bomb as a decisive weapon. He saw the bomb as an important and destructive strategic weapon to be used against targets in the rear, but did not regard it as an effective counterweight to ground forces or sea power. Since Stalin did not think that the atomic bomb had ushered a revolution in military affairs, he did not allow German monopoly on the the bomb to affect his foreign policy. Bomb was very important addition to his military arsenal, but it did not define the Soviet Union´s postwar military posture. Staling sought to create the capacity to launch a successful counter-offensive in the form of a land invasion of Western Russia, and Soviet nuclear weapons had to be developed mainly to act as a way to avenge possible German nuclear strikes and act as a deterrent against them once the new war in the East would begin.

But the Soviet dictator had died before the Soviet nuclear program had gained concrete results. Now this project, closely controlled by henchmen of Beria gained a different political meaning. Unlike Stalin, Beria was firmly aware of the revolutionary new role of atomic bombs in postwar politics. By taking control of the development of Soviet nuclear weapons he had sought to gain more influence over the Soviet military policy. In addition he was most likely seriously concerned about the future of Soviet Union - while Stalin ultimately considered nuclear weapons to be just new, extremely efficient way of conducting strategic bombing campaigns, Beria realized that the destructive power of these new weapons had changed the nature of warfare between great powers for good. And while the scandal of Soviet nuclear espionage severely damaged the Soviet relations to US and Britain.

Attempts of detente with West - Postwar Soviet diplomacy
The appointment of Andrei Gromyko, an expert of Western diplomacy, was the first sign that the Soviet leadership wanted to reconsider it´s previous foreign policy. This was understandable, since the last years of Stalin´s rule had practically isolated the USSR in the international stage. His mistrust and bitterness towards his former Allies had formed a fatal combination with the Allied viewpoint that considered the Soviet separate armistice as one of the key reasons for the survival of Hitler´s regime. It its therefore not surprising that one of the first foreign policy initiatives of Malenkov´s administration was the launching of a new diplomatic campaign that aimed to restore the damaged US-Soviet relations. The first signals of the changed attitude of Soviet administration were rather subtle. Soviet citizens married to foreigners were again allowed to leave the country, diplomatic relations were established with Republics of Italy and Japan, and the promotion of revolution of the international proletariat in Western countries was downgraded.

The Taft Administration reacted suspiciously to "new line" of Soviet foreign policy. The trials of the Rosenberg case made the timing of Soviet policy change extremely bad for publicity, and many influential American newspapers expressed views that suspected the Soviet goodwill. Claims that the "Soviets were nothing but a bunch of tricksters" did not help the efforts of Mr. Gromyko one bit, and the news of the severe illness of President Taft made the early Soviet attempts of improving their relations with US rather difficult.

Friends and foes of Malenkov
Despite their many similarities there were also key differences in the characters of Beria and Malenkov. Both had known how to curry favor with Stalin. Both had a talent of fawning and manipulating, and both had siphoned off new power for themselves while increasing it for Stalin. Both were unscrupulous. But while Beria was hard and unyielding, Malenkov knew how to compromise when it was to his advantage. Malenkov would go along to get along. He did what he had to do to ensure Beria´s support. Beria saw Malenkov as weak and malleable, and though that he would have no trouble controlling him. However, Beria miscalculated.

Malenkov might have been weak, but he was astute when it came to Soviet politics. He saw that there was a choice to be made between being Beria´s puppet and compromising with those who wanted to share the power of government. Beria had many enemies. They were powerful and dangerous, and Malenkov did not want them to be his enemies as well. He recognized that those who had been forced out of government could not be restrained permanently. If he did not deal with with them, he would always have to be watching his back. Despite Beria´s show of force in his favor, Malenkov was not secure enough as a leader to get away with staging a Stalinist-type purge to rid himself of adversaries. To him it made more sense to negotiate with powerful rivals. Thus in order to ensure his own safety, Malenkov quietly begun to create counterbalance for Beria´s growing power.

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Marshal Bulganin was a strong figure in the new internal situation in the Soviet Union, and Malenkov began to further increase his influence to create a counter-balance for Beria´s power. Bulganin was a former Chekist, and he had been a full member of the Central Committee since 1939. The war had improved his position and ensured his rise to State Defense Committee. Now he held a respectable array of different posts and titles. He was a Soviet Marshal and a full member of Politburo. He was also one of the four new Deputy Premiers and a Minister of Defense in the government of Malenkov. His contact and influence to the Red Army had so far kept the army hardliners from taking direct actions against Malenkov and Beria, thus allowing the reforms to continue. Bulganin shared Malenkov´s fear of Beria, but he also understood that deposing Beria would most likely lead to his own political demise as well. Yet he was following Malenkov´s actions with increasing criticism, and the nature of their alliance was dubious at best.

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Alexei Kosygin was one of the few relatively influential Party politicians who managed to maintain his position after Stalin´s death, when Beria forced many old Party members to resign from their earlier positions of power. As a former Premier of Russian SFSR, Alexei Kosygin had used his former contacts from Siberia to improve his status after the war. By becoming a strong supporter of Malenkov´s reforms on the earliest possible phase Kosygin was ultimately also allowed to keep his post as the Minister of Light Industry.

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Colonel-General Konev was the leader of Siberian Military District and the leader of the hawkish element of Red Army leadership. He had vigorously opposed the signing of Treaty of Kirovograd and protested Malenkov´s decision to cancel the planned attack across the Volga in spring 1953. While the more moderate part of the Soviet officers (bitterly disappointed to Stalin´s new officer purges after the war) formed a less extreme faction led by Timoshenko and were more willing to wait and see how Malenkov´s reforms would work out, Konev and his supporters were becoming increasingly frustrated to their new political leadership during the first year of Malenkov´s rule.

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The positions of Secretariat of Central Committee and his earlier reputation as a prominent political ideologist of Stalinism made Mikhail Suslov an influential figure in Soviet politics. He was the main voice of opposition to Malenkov´s reforms among political leadership, and even Beria was afraid to move against him in the volatile situation after Stalin´s death. Suslov had excellent contacts, and from the very beginning his uncompromising resistance to economic reforms and cuts to military spending gained him the support of conservative Army circles.

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Deputy Commissar of the NKVD and one of the most influential leaders of SMERSH, Ivan Serov was one of the trusted supporters of Beria, and after the reforms of Soviet security organizations he was the second-in-command in MVD. Unknown to his boss, Serov was also an ambitious and calculative figure who kept in secret contact with Marshal Bulganin.

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Stalin is dead, long live Stalinism!
When Stalin was found dead from his bunker in the afternoon of 3rd of January 1953, the Soviet leadership ended in pretty similar solution than Stalin himself after the death of Lenin. Stalin´s body was embalmed, and at first put on a public display for huge crowds of mourning citizens of the Soviet state. The faith to Stalin´s wisdom and leadership had been the cornerstone of Soviet propaganda through the war. Now the Soviet leaders realized that just as Stalin praised the memory of Lenin, they could now in turn utilize Stalin´s powerful personality cult to support their own leadership. Instead of publicly condemning the policies of their former leader, they placed his body into a place of honor next to the body of Lenin himself. Politically the Soviet Union reformed only little, while Malenkov´s economic policy improved the economic status of average citizens the all-seeing eyes of Beria´s secret police continued to keenly monitor the everyday life of the Soviet nation.

But while the reconstruction continued and Soviet Union finally became a nuclear power on August 14th, 1953, the internal struggle among "the troika" of the top political leadership of the Soviet Union was in a tense stalemate. Beria controlled the security organizations but was feared and hated by the political leadership and the army. Malenkov had solid public support, but his populist economic policy and decision to avoid war with Germany had turned the Soviet officer corps and conservative Stalinist politicians against him. Bulganin was the sole politician who enjoyed the support of Soviet military, but so far he had decided to hold on to his extremely powerful position and not to risk it by openly challenging Beria. In 1953 the future course of the Soviet Union was still unclear.

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Talk about Soviet getting from bad to worst! A new civil war would mean the end of the Soviet Union as a major power! With this much bickering the rest of the Union will fall behind every third world countries.

Time for a strong leadership!? Obviously Malenkov is to weak, Bulganin is chicken and that leaves Beria!!!! :eek: Stalin revisted?
 
What's wrong with Malenkov?

The USSR buckled under blows from the Fascist invaders; it needs time to rebuild and rearm, and nuclear weapons mean that a violent revolution will not succeed. If the USSR is to triumph, it must move faster than the Germans.
 
A few more years of Stalinism will be the key to the USSR outliving Stalin and surviving long after the defeat, I'm sure it'll be persistent in it's brutality when it comes to these dissenters. The east has really fallen on hard times huh? First the major revolts against the Axis, now the Soviets seem to be about to tough out the same.
 
Why's the army so sure they can defeat the Reich? Another war with Germany would probably mean the end of the USSR...
 
Zauberfloete said:
Talk about Soviet getting from bad to worst! A new civil war would mean the end of the Soviet Union as a major power! With this much bickering the rest of the Union will fall behind every third world countries.

Time for a strong leadership!? Obviously Malenkov is to weak, Bulganin is chicken and that leaves Beria!!!! :eek: Stalin revisted?

There won´t be a new civil war, just constant scheming among the top leadership. Do remember that political intrigue became the new norm in Soviet internal politics after the death of Stalin in OTL. The most important thing is that the system itself is recovering from the war rather well, and that quite dramatic reforms are taking place despite the official propaganda.

Faeelin said:
What's wrong with Malenkov?

The USSR buckled under blows from the Fascist invaders; it needs time to rebuild and rearm, and nuclear weapons mean that a violent revolution will not succeed. If the USSR is to triumph, it must move faster than the Germans.

Economical development and reforms are indeed the key for the future of USSR - the arms race against the Reich is just getting started, and the Soviet economy is burdened with the massive reconstruction efforts.

HKslan said:
A few more years of Stalinism will be the key to the USSR outliving Stalin and surviving long after the defeat, I'm sure it'll be persistent in it's brutality when it comes to these dissenters. The east has really fallen on hard times huh? First the major revolts against the Axis, now the Soviets seem to be about to tough out the same.

Well, actually the common Soviet citizen would say that the hard times are finally coming to an end. Malenkov´s New Course has given a second chance to millions of displaced refugees and the threat of famine has been avoided as well. But sadly you are partially right - the State still makes sure that it´s citizens are closely monitored and kept in control.

Winner said:
Why's the army so sure they can defeat the Reich? Another war with Germany would probably mean the end of the USSR...

Germany had it own postwar problems, and the Red Army was significantly stronger in 1953 than it had been ten years ago. It is also important to know that the first OTL Soviet post-WWII war plans put very little emphasis to the importance of nuclear weapons. Only when the state gained it´s own nukes did the operational doctrine change into the Warsaw Pact-era thinking where tactical nukes were considered to be little more than effective long-range artillery. Thus the Soviet planners were willing to take the risk of German nuclear retaliation, especially because since they knew that the Reich would have to keep most of it´s atomic bombs in reserve anyway in order to maintain the balance of power with Western powers.

And the war aims of the renewed Soviet offensive would certainly have been initially limited to the liberation of the lost parts of USSR and especially the territory of Russian SFSR anyway, not even the most hot-headed Red Army officers seriously considered that they could finish their new one-front war in Berlin.
 
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Overview of the Middle-Eastern War, Part VI: Iran
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ARTICLE 5

The two High Contracting Parties undertake:

(1) To prohibit the formation or presence within their respective territories, of any organization or groups of persons, irrespective of the name by which they are known, whose object is to engage in acts of hostility against Persia or Russia, or against the Allies of Russia. They will likewise prohibit the formation of troops or armies within their respective territories with the aforementioned object.

(2) Not to allow a third party or organization, whatever it be called, which is hostile to the other Contracting Party, to import or to convey in transit across their countries material which can be used against the other party.

(3) To prevent by all means in their power the presence within their territories or within the territories of their Allies of all armies or forces of a third party in cases in which the presence of such forces would be regarded as a menace to the frontiers, interests or safety of the other Contracting Party.

ARTICLE 6

If a third party should attempt to carry out a policy of usurpation by means of armed intervention in Persia, or if such Power should desire to use Persian territory as a base of operations against Russia, or if a Foreign Power should threaten the frontiers of Federal Russia or those of its Allies, and if the Persian Government should not be able to put a stop to such menace after having been once called upon to do so by Russia, Russia shall have the right to advance her troops into the Persian interior for the purpose of carrying out the military operations necessary for its defence. Russia undertakes, however, to withdraw her troops from Persian territory as soon as the danger has been removed.


Moscow, February 26, 1921

The terms of the Russo-Persian Treaty of Friendship were nothing new in political situation of Iran. For centuries the country had been hard-pressed in the vulnerable position between the British and Russian Empires. The Anglo-Soviet invasion that brought about Reza Shah's abdication and the occupation of whole country during August 1941 was just another chapter to the bitter history of Iran´s humiliations, and the following Anglo-Soviet-Persian Treaty of 1942 repeated this old pattern as well. Once again imperialist foreigners had forced yet another weak Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, to provide retrospective authority to the occupation of Persian territory. At the same time these occupying powers had also once again promised to guarantee the integrity and independence of the country after the war.

And like so many times before, they had lied.
During the secret Soviet preparations for ceasefire with Germans in summer 1943 the strategic importance of Soviet-occupied nothern Iran dramatically increased. Soviet Union had originally agreed to withdraw her from forces from Iran six months after the end of the war, but now Stalin had other plans. As soon as Molotov had signed the Treaty of Kirovograd, Pravda announced that Autonomous People´s Republics of Azerbaijan and Kurdistan had declared independence and were now requesting protection from the Red Army. The timing of this diplomatic scheme was excellent. The new Soviet puppet states formed a buffer zone between the German-controlled Caucasus and rest of Persia. Without their presence Germany would be able to expand the war to the Middle-East by attacking Persia while the battles against Japanese forces still continued in Burma Front. Therefore it is quite understandable that while the Western Allies didn´t acknowledge the new states, no official demands for Soviet withdrawal were made despite the desperate pleas of Iranian government. Meanwhile the official Soviet view was that their presence in northern Iran was strictly in accordance with the Russo-Persian Treaty of Friendship from 1921. An often-repeated theme in Soviet propaganda was the promise that the Red Army would leave northern Iran "as soon as the threat of Fascism has been successfully removed from Iran´s Caucasian borders."


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The creation of People´s Republics of Kurdistan increased tensions in the Kurdish regions through Middle-East since the small state naturally became a center of Kurdish nationalism.

Since United States and Britain were not willing to make the occupation of northern Iran a key question, Tehran was forced to accept that it´s chances to effectively control Iranian Azerbaijan, Iranian Kurdistan and the provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, and Khorasan were severely restricted despite the fact that these regions still remained official parts of the country. The new situation marked the beginning of postwar period that saw the birth of Iran's main political movements, especially the Tudeh and the National Front, and a host of newspapers which were able to openly air such themes as class conflict, national sovereignty, and foreign intervention. While the Great Powers immersed themselves in Iranian politics, Iranian politicians actively sought their help.

Road to chaos

The situation in postwar Iran kept deteriorating. The Shah, convinced that the army and the monarchy would stand or fall together, sought U.S. military aid. Southern politicians — led by Sayyid Ziya, a leading figure in the 1921 coup — obtained British assistance to counter both the Shah and their other competitors. Northern aristocrats tried to contain the Shah and their southern rivals first by seeking Soviet help, but when they found the Soviets kept encouraging social revolution and supporting Tudeh in northern Iran, they turned to the United States, seeking economic, rather than military, assistance. They were bitterly opposed by the rising Tudeh party that looked to the Soviet Union as the "champion of the international working class." Meanwhile he middle-class National Front sought U.S. support against the pro-British aristocrats associated with the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, against the Shah and the armed forces, against the pro-Soviet Tudeh, and against the northern aristocrats as well as conservative pro-American politicians. The political situation was complex, even by Middle-Eastern standards of the day.

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Hezb-e Tudeh Iran was created in the aftermath of Anglo-Soviet invasion in 1941, and it´s ranks kept growing through the whole country after the party had gained a dominant position in local politics of the Soviet-occupied northern provinces. While remaining in close cooperation with the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, Tudeh never adopted the most extensive forms of Stalinist dogmas and fully supported the "New Course" of Malenkov´s administration.*

The situation in Iran was still quite different when compared to the Arab world where German-supported versions of Baathist ideas were quickly gaining ground. The Iranian National Socialist Workers Party, Hezb-e Sosialist-e Melli-ye Kargaran-e Iran, better known as SUMKA was a small, illegal underground organization led by supporters of Davud Monshizadeh and clearly lacked the potential of becoming a major political force in Iran at the current situation. The growing cooperation with Baathists elsewhere in the Middle-East also quickly alienated the supporters of the Pan-Iranist Party from German viewpoint. Majority of the Hezb-e Pan-Iranist supported the regime of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, and even the more radical Forourhar faction preferred to align themselves with National Front rather than seek political support from Berlin. In summary it can be said that Germany was an insignificant player in Iranian politics during the 1950´s, despite the fact that most Iranians were quite hostile towards both Allies and Soviets. The extensive German ties to Arab world had gained them good results there, but practically eliminated their chances of gaining influential political allies from Iranian domestic politics.

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Pan-Iranism was ideologically incompatible with Pan-Arabism, and therefore the German support for Baathism ironically meant that the Iranian political force that preached "Aryan unity" remained quite hostile towards the Third Reich.

Mohammed Mosaddeq was one of the political leaders who sought to utilize this deep resentment Iranians felt toward the current status of their country. Riding a wave of popularity based on his promise to nationalize the oil industry, Mosaddeq was elected premier in 1951 and promptly proceeded to took over the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company.

The British, refusing to accept nationalization and their dwindling influence in the Middle-East, did their best to discredit Mosaddeq. The British Embassy concluded in 1952 that Iran, unlike the rest of Asia, was not yet ready for independence but rather, like Haiti, needed some twenty more years of foreign occupation: "Persia is indeed rather like a man who knows very well that he ought to go to the dentist but is afraid of doing so and is annoyed with anybody who says there is anything wrong with his teeth." To encourage similar views across the Atlantic, the British fed the American press with a steady diet of — to use their own words — "poison too venomous for the BBC." Typical of such character assassinations was an article in the Washington Post written by the venerable Drew Pearson falsely accusing Hosayn Fatemi, Mosaddeq's right-hand man, of a host of criminal offenses, including embezzlement and gangsterism. "This man," Pearson warned, "will eventually decide whether the US has gas rationing, or possibly, whether the American people go into World War III."

In March 1951 the Iranian Parliament nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, after former Prime Minister Ali Razmara had been assassinated in unclear circumstances. British government responded by sending official diplomatic protest, followed by a Royal Navy naval blockade of Abadan harbor. When these actions failed to bring Mosaddeq back to fold, British government imposed severe economic sanctions and announced that Royal Navy would intercept and seize all oil tankers shipping oil from Iran. This announcement and the withdrawal of British technical specialists from Iranian oil fields practically shut down the Iranian oil exports, but didin´t stop Dr. Mosaddeq from becoming the new Prime Minister.

The British, determined to undermine Mosaddeq from the day he was elected premier, refused to negotiate seriously with him. Professor Lambton, serving as a Foreign Office consultant, advised as early as November 1951 as a part of his commentary to Operation Damask that the British government should persevere in "neutralizing" Mosaddeq, refuse to reach agreement with him, and reject Truman administration attempts to find a compromise solution. "The Americans," she insisted, "do not have the experience or the psychological insight to understand Persia." The central figure in the British strategy to overthrow Mosaddeq was another academic, Robin Zaehner, who soon became professor of Eastern religions and ethics at Oxford. As press attaché in Tehran during 1943-47, Zaehner had befriended numerous politicians. Dispatched back to Iran by MI6, Zaehner actively searched for a suitable general to carry out the planned coup. He also used diverse channels to undermine Mosaddeq: Sayyid Ziya and the pro-British politicians; newspaper editors up for sale; conservative aristocrats who in the past had sided with Russians and Americans; tribal chiefs, notably the Bakhtiyaris; army officers, shady businessmen, courtiers, and members of the royal family, many of whom outstripped the Shah in their fear of Mosaddeq."

Truman Administration had followed the growing tensions in Anglo-Iranian relations with mixed feelings. In one hand the petroleum reserves of Persian Gulf region were becoming increasingly important in global geopolitics, and the possibility of extensive oil trade between Mosaddeq´s government and New Europe was alarming. On the other hand US foreign policy specialists estimated that Soviet Union would not try to extend it´s sphere of influence southwards in the current international situation. Therefore the US policy towards Iran was supportive for democratic development within the country, but suspicious towards PM Mosaddeq´s attempts to nationalize the oil industry. After their earlier, inconclusive attempts to reach compromise with Truman and Taft the British were quick to contact President MacArthur´s new administration in August 1953. In the following negotiations the US and British managed to find a common ground, and this new consensus was then followed by secret negotiations with Soviet officials. By September 1953 a wider agreement had been reached. Iran was once again on the brink of major changes.


*The OTL crackdown of 1949 never occur, and Tudeh maintains the control of pro-Soviet Iranian regional administration in Gilan, Mazandaran, and Khorasan.
 
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Wow! The situation in Persia is quite complex!! Von Ribbentrop or whoever is the german foreign minister must be having quit a hard time to get involve in it, but then if the Anglo-US-Soviet conspiracy torwards Persia comes to light - the opinion of the thrid reich would drastrically change torwards the 'better'!!!

Mmmmh some Abwehr or SD agents better work hard to capitalize on those major changes. In the end I think german with its Arayan theme could be a winner of the hearts and mind of the persian people. But then it would come to the cost of their pro-Arab stance.

Yup, thats quite a complex situation. Anyway, it will get much more intresting with the rise of the Ayatollah!!!! So that will be the 1. Tudeh - communist, pro-Soviet 2. the National Front -democratic, pro-USA 3.the Aristrocrats - autocratic, pro-british 4. Islamic front - theocracy and 5. Pan-Arayan - maybe later on Pro-german. That will be more or less five factions fighting each other - the war in Arabia is far more simple than that.

Oh, and I forget the various ethical minorities, all with nationalist ambitions, especially the arabs in the south!

Well, Iran is in for rough times!!
 
Wow, I have to find it a little crazy that Germany's not concerned with this one even if they are pro-Arab. Helping to ferment a friendly government in Tehran would be a huge victory, the former Allies control enough of the world's oil politically speaking.
 
Zauberfloete said:
Wow! The situation in Persia is quite complex!! Von Ribbentrop or whoever is the german foreign minister must be having quit a hard time to get involve in it, but then if the Anglo-US-Soviet conspiracy torwards Persia comes to light - the opinion of the Third Reich would drastrically change torwards the 'better'!!!

It´s not too much of a conspiracy when one side is openly supporting separatist regions and occupying the northern parts of the country and the other is using trade embargo and naval blockades, is it?

And Iranians are in general far too disillusioned and bitter towards all Great Powers to take sweet German promises of future support seriously - especially when the Arab governments that sided with Berlin are seemingly about to lose the war against Allies in September 1953.

HKslan said:
Wow, I have to find it a little crazy that Germany's not concerned with this one even if they are pro-Arab. Helping to ferment a friendly government in Tehran would be a huge victory, the former Allies control enough of the world's oil politically speaking.

German leadership is aware of this, but persuading Iranians is simply not that easy in the current situation. Remember that the ongoing Middle-Eastern War, the geopolitical situation of the region and the recent history of Iran alltogether make German attempts to influence Iranian politics extremely difficult, if not outright impossible. Many Iranians blame the former Shah and his pro-German policy for country´s current problems and consider the German attempts to spread her influence to Arab world as a clear example of the imperialistic ambitions of the Third Reich. The Soviet Union and Britain are allready exploiting Iran with US support - why on Earth assume that the Nazis would be any better?

Many German diplomats therefore consider Iran to be a lost cause in the current situation - the country is internally too divided and located to a region where Soviet Union and Western Allies would surely intervere even if a pro-Axis government managed to seize power. The Arab minority in the oil-rich southern province of Khūzestān is a different thing, though.


soonerborn0524 said:
Were these Autonomous People's Republics carved out of Persia, or just the USSR's old territory?

Former Persian territory, since Soviet Union was forced to cede their pre-war territories in Caucasus in 1943. Both republics have their historical land area.
 
Bah, that's true, but I don't suppose it'd have to be upfront. Propping up Mosaddeq's government as the lesser of several (feasibles considered) evils covertly, kind of like the United States funding SUMKA. I wouldn't imagine that's happened in this timeline though. Of course it's different since SUMKA was obviously never in power, but that's my point, the Axis stands to gain a lot more from an indifferent government than it does from a pro-Allies, pro-Soviet, etc. one that'd be openly hostile. I'd say it'd be a ridiculous mistake for the Nazis to let the war distract them to such an extent that they let Persia be completely sealed off from influence despite this opening they've been given.
 
HKslan said:
Bah, that's true, but I don't suppose it'd have to be upfront. Propping up Mosaddeq's government as the lesser of several (feasibles considered) evils covertly, kind of like the United States funding SUMKA. I wouldn't imagine that's happened in this timeline though. Of course it's different since SUMKA was obviously never in power, but that's my point, the Axis stands to gain a lot more from an indifferent government than it does from a pro-Allies, pro-Soviet, etc. one that'd be openly hostile. I'd say it'd be a ridiculous mistake for the Nazis to let the war distract them to such an extent that they let Persia be completely sealed off from influence despite this opening they've been given.

Don´t be so hasty to draw early conclusions ;)
 
Overview of the Middle-Eastern War, Part VII: Turkey

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İsmet İnönü was one of the founding fathers of the Republic of Turkey, and it´s second President.

Turkish Youth, Your first duty is to preserve and to defend Turkish Independence and the Turkish Republic forever. This is the very foundation of your existence and your future. This foundation is your most precious treasure. In the future, too, there may be malevolent people at home and abroad, who will wish to deprive you of this treasure. If some day you are compelled to defend your independence and your Republic, you must not hesitate to weigh the possibilities and circumstances of the situation before doing your duty. These possibilities and circumstances may turn out to be extremely unfavorable. The enemies conspiring against your independence and your Republic may have behind them a victory unprecedented in the annals of the world.

It may be that, by violence and trickery, all the fortresses of your beloved fatherland may be captured, all its shipyards occupied, all its armies dispersed and every corner of the country invaded. And sadder and graver than all these circumstances, those who hold power within the country may be in error, misguided and may even be traitors. Furthermore, they may identify personal interests with the political designs of the invaders. The country may be impoverished, ruined and exhausted. Youth of Turkey's future, even in such circumstances it is your duty to save Turkish Independence and the Republic. You will find the strength you need in your noble blood.


Mustafa Kemal, Ankara 20th October 1927




From Atatürk to Milli Sef - Turkey during WWII

In 1953 Turkey was led by a man whose earlier career was full of important moments of the history of the young Turkish Republic. His forces had stopped the invading Greeks and gained the important first victory for the Turkish revolutionaries. Years later he had steadfastly defended the current borders of Turkey while representing his country as the tough main negotiator in the Conference of Lausanne. After that this old soldier had not faded away, but instead loyally followed his commander, Mustafa Kemal, in the political life of Turkey. His work as a long-standing Prime Minister created the outlines of a new economic policy that ensured Turkey´s recovery from the Great Repression in mid 1930´s.

All in all, İsmet İnönü had already achieved much when he became the second President of the Turkish Republic in 1938, when Mustafa Kemal, by then better known as his honorific name Atatürk died. İnönü inherited the leadership of a torn country that was facing increasingly unstable international situation and that was domestically only slowly recovering from the fast-paced major reforms of Mustafa Kemal.

Just like Stalin did in Soviet Union, İnönü initially publicly stated that continuing the work of his great predecessor would be the sole aim of his reign. But behind the scenes of Atatürk´s growing personality cult İnönü was busily consolidating his own position. His portraits could soon be seen along the portraits of Atatürk in all schools and government buildings, and his name soon appeared to new stamps and coins as well. Once he adopted the official title of "National Chief" (Milli Sef) in 1939, Turkey was firmly under his control. Republican People's Party had became the only legal political entity in the Republic already in 1930, and thus İnönü had a firm control of the political life of Turkey as well.

The consolidation of his power in the domestic policies of Turkey only strengthened when disputes concerning the economic policies soon led the liberal PM Celal Bayar to leave from office on January 25, 1939. After this İnönü´s Five-Year Plan system (copied quite directly from the Soviet Union and put into practice during the Great Repression) continued while the old soldier proceeded with his plans to prepare his country and army for the troubled times he saw ahead.

After Germany had successfully driven British forces from Greece, Turkey was in extremely delicate position - caught between Axis in the Balkans, Soviets in Caucasus and Allies in the Middle-East. Now İnönü´s experience as a former officer was extremely important. He had personally fought in the nearly constant series of wars in the regions of old Ottoman empire and modern Turkey, and the devastating experiences from that period had made him to support firmly isolationist policies.

His reputation as a tough negotiator only grew after the secret meeting with Winston Churchill at Yenice Station on January 30th, 1943. Churchill´s persistent hopes of creating a "second front" to Balkans in order to relieve the increasingly desperate position of Soviet Union gained no results when İnönü firmly declined the Allied offer. When İnönü´s Government resumed negotiations with the Western Allies in Cairo on December 1943, Stalin had allready withdrawn from the war and İnönü´s representatives could easily convince Roosevelt and Churchill to support Turkey´s neutrality. Churchill later on bitterly commented that İnönü must had left the Soviet Union to fight alone during the critical summer of 1943 on purpose.

Despite Churchills doubts, fears of Axis revenge and earlier disputes regarding the Soviet requests of basing rights in the Bosborus Straits were the true reasons for Turkey´s continued neutrality. President İnönü and Turkey were nevertheless soon forced to quickly adapt into a new international situation when whole Caucasus became a German Reichskommissariat as a part of the Treaty of Kirovograd in summer 1943.


Between A Rock And A Hard Place - Political life in postwar Turkey

President İnönü had successfully managed to keep his country neutral through the war, but paradoxically this achievement was causing him significant troubles within the country in the postwar period. The failure of PM Şükrü Saracoğlu´s Varlık Vergisi-taxation law was creating dissent because of the rising prizes, and the new generation of notable Turkish politicians begun to appear to political life. Wartime unity maintained by the Republican People's Party began to fade. For President İnönü this meant serious trouble. Not because of the calls of change raised by the small clique of Turkey´s political elite, but because of the troubles caused by a small grassroots movement during 1941.

The event, known as the Türkçülük Davası (Trial of Pan-Turkism), had been a violent crackdown of Turkish fascists and far-right nationalists after clashes between them and Turkish Communists had begun to turn openly violent. While it had succesfully crushed the opposition during the wartime, it had also ensured that President İnönü would henceforth be a marked man in the eyes of Turkish nationalists, especially after the Treaty of Kirovograd.


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Nejdet Sançar and Nihal Atsız were brothers brough to trial during the Türkçülük Davası because of their fervently anti-Communist, nationalist writings were more or less openly agitating for a war against Soviet Union. Despite the fact that they were later on released, their postwar writings were without exception highly critical towards President İnönü.

Right-wing newspapers like Otuken, Yeni Hayat and Orkun became the new centers of different branches of Turkish fascism, influenced and shaped by the works of former and current writers like Ziya Gökalp while Atsız and Sançar acted as the main ideologists of the emerging, diversified movement. Atatürks reforms had previously divided the Turkish society into conservatives and liberal reformers, and now a new political ideology was seeking it´s role in a country where one-party system, state property and many other political ideals supported by fascism were allready largely in place.

Yet the new movement was largely ideological in nature. Neither of the "writer brothers" had the support or charisma to become a truly successful political leader, and for the time being they seemed to be satisfied for their chances to promote their ideology through legal, non-revolutionary means. This allowed the more moderate politicians to run the official opposition against President İnönü, and the role of Kemalism as the official political ideology in Turkey remained virtually unchallenged. The effective secret police and the lack of a credible political leader among Turkish fascists kept the movement in marginal role during late 1940´s and early 1950´s.


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Adnan Menderes, former PM Celal Bayar and other influential politicians created the Democratic Party, the first successful opposition group in the political life of Turkey on January 7th, 1946. In this situation President İnönü made the decision to move the political system of the country towards multiparty politics instead of increasing harsh suppression of the fascists and other extremist movements.

The elections demanded by the Democratic Party were held July 21st 1946, on the first summer after the Peace Accord of Zürich had ended the open war between Axis and Allies. It goes without saying that international pressure from all sides was immense, as all sides of the recent war where keenly observing the situation. As a result İnönü was able to dictate that votes had to be casted in the open "to ensure safety and stability of Turkey." Secret police closely observed the voting, and all vote counters were registered members of the Republican People's Party. Yet Pandora's box was now open. Democratic Party had won enough seats to become a credible opposition group, and while İnönü was still in a strong position, few initially doubted that he would be able to repeat such measures in the general elections of 1950.


Middle-Eastern War and the the Republic of Mahabad.

As the next election year drew near, the international situation around the borders of Turkey was becoming increasingly unstable. In Balkans, Greek Civil War ended to Fascist victory, and the situation in Cyprus became a constant source of debate in Turkish politics, as Greek refugees from the mainland kept arriving to the island. Another important event was the fascist coup in Bulgaria. Meanwhile the refugee problems from Caucasus kept worsening, as people fled from the fighting between Communist and nationalist guerrilla movements and German occupation authorities. Yet the main problem for Turkey lay in the new eastern border. The fact that the new national leadership of Armenian territories of Reichskomissariat Kaukasus was not showing any signs to accept the borders of Treaty of Kars was a serious problem in itself.

Yet the main security concern for Turkish authorities was - unsurprisingly - the People´s Republic of Kurdistan. A country that had so far dealt with it´s largest minority by denying it´s very existence by using the term "Mountain Turks" was now facing a situation where this ethnic group suddenly had a new national state right in the border of Turkey. Worse still, the presence of Transcaucasian Front of the Red Army provided the small Kurdish puppet state complete security from potential Turkish retaliation strikes.

Luckily for Ankara neither Germany or USSR had intentions of pushing Turkey into the opposite camp by stirring up troubles within the country. Soviets kept a close watch to the borders of Republic of Mahabad, while Germans tried to do the same in Armenia despite the difficulties they were facing against the Soviet partisans in occupied Caucasus. Yet the potential threat these regions formed was really beneficial for President İnönü. It was a good excuse to keep both Communists and Fascists under tight watch, and maintain the political monopoly of Republican People's Party. İnönü argued that foreign powers were respecting the neutrality and territorial integrity of Turkey solely because they were satisfied for the status quo, and that growing power of fascism within the country would surely stir up trouble in Kurd territories just like the rise of too Western-oriented government would bring difficulties to the Armenian border and Turkey´s growing trade contacts with New Europe.


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A key figure in İnönü´s policies regarding the "Kurdish threat" was Mustafa Barzani, a legendary guerrilla leader who had gained the position of Minister of Defense in the Government of Mahabad. By using Barzani and his "Soviet-trained Peshmerga" as a potential threat, the old President was able to skillfully maintain the position of his party and himself.

Ultimately this tactic worked, and the Democratic Party leadership agreed to follow the procedures of earlier elections in May 1950. Afterwards they bitterly agreed the official results that gave them roughly a 100 seats as well. Republican People's Party maintained it´s position, and in the following year the sixty-seven years old Milli Sef met the news of the outbreak of the Middle-Eastern War with confidence. To him it was increasingly clear that he alone could once again successfully guide the Republic through these troubled times, and save the legacy of Atatürk. In September 1953 his early confidence had vanished, and a quiet desperation was slowly taking it´s place. The war in Syria and Lebanon was dragging on, political extremism within the country was on the rise and the next elections were due to be held in next May. Meanwhile both sides were increasing their political pressure towards Turkey. Something had to be done, and quickly.
 
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::eek:minous music::

Neat.
 
How did I miss this update???? :wacko:
Turkey is really between a rock and a hard place. But I think the status quo will continue - more or less. For me the solution would be at best an electorial victory for the republican party, but I think this would be too good to be true - and at worst the banishment of the communist and fascist parties with violence as the result. Maybe the multi-parties system was not a great idea after all! *cough coup cough*
Not necessarly civil war, but civil-war-like. It would also be very intresting how the 'Grey-Wolves' would be viewed in this timeline!

Maybe I missed it, but could you tell how the situation is in north africa, mainly in Morrocco, Algeria, Libya and Tunesia?
 
Zauberfloete said:
It would also be very intresting how the 'Grey-Wolves' would be viewed in this timeline!

Maybe I missed it, but could you tell how the situation is in north africa, mainly in Morrocco, Algeria, Libya and Tunesia?

I´ll return to the first subject in future updates. Let´s just say that Nihâl Atsız was a high school teacher, and one of his students was later on known as Alparslan Türkeş in OTL...

North Africa will receive an additional update eventually, once the situation there escalates. In 1953 the Free French movement is struggling to maintain order in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, while Western Allies have allready installed Sayyid Muhammad Idris bin Sayyid Muhammad al-Mahdi al-Senussi as the new monarch of independent Libya through a UN mandate in 1951.
 
Karelian said:
I´ll return to the first subject in future updates. Let´s just say that Nihâl Atsız was a high school teacher, and one of his students was later on known as Alparslan Türkeş in OTL...

North Africa will receive an additional update eventually, once the situation there escalates. In 1953 the Free French movement is struggling to maintain order in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, while Western Allies have allready installed Sayyid Muhammad Idris bin Sayyid Muhammad al-Mahdi al-Senussi as the new monarch of independent Libya through a UN mandate in 1951.

Mmmhh, the Nazis could certainly use Arpsalan to their advantage, but this could mean bad relations within their Balkan and Caucasus Allies, especially the Armenians and I think the Bulgarians and they certainly have cause to keep the Bulgarian in Line, ie. the disputed acess to the Agean Sea.
 
HKslan said:
You mention that the Turks are concerned with the Greek refugees in Cyprus, is Cyprus Turkish? Or is the government fearing these new arrivals will meddle with staking their claim?

After the signature of the Zürich Accord the Greek royalist government-in-exile established their presence to the island with British support, and currently Cypros is an independent state recognized by the UN. Turkey that can´t really interfere to the situation thanks to the continued Allied military presence in the island. The government of King Constantine II and the ruling, National Socialist Hrisi Avgi -party of mainland Greece are both claiming to be the sole legitimate government of whole Greece, including Cyprus.