Chapter 22 - A fistful of Dynamite: Moscow, 30 December 1919 - 1st January 1920
It's the economy, stupid!
-
Carville[1]
On December 30, 1919, the members of the recently created Politburo convened at Moscow.[2] Eight men sat around the table, but only five of them had voting rights: Lenin, Trotzky, Stalin, Kamenev and Krestinsky. The mood was excellent since 1919 had been a good year for the Bolshevik cause. Great victories had been gained on all fronts. However, it was noted with some regret that substantial territorial gains had only been made on the Siberian front. The East was the source of great Soviet hopes. As early as November, Trotzky had assured Lenin that collapse of Kolchak's counter-revolutionary regime was imminent. But now December 1919 was nearing its end and the stubborn admiral was still ruling at Omsk. Lenin was getting increasingly impatient. But Trotzky wasn't intimidated, instead he laid out plans for a new offensive against Perm that had already been put into motion. The fall of Perm would surely seal the fate of Kolchak's misguided regime.
Then it was Trotzky's turn to raise uncomfortable questions; his target was Stalin. Troubling reports of food shortages all over Southern, Western and Northern Russia had reached Trotzky's desk. The depot in Novgorod, Tzaritsyn and Kharkov were utterly exhausted. Pertograd, Kursk, Tambov, Voronezh, … everywhere the stockpiles were almost depleted. How was it possible that the responsible commanders – he looked at Stalin and Kamanev - had allowed the situation to deteriorate so far? How was Soviet Russia supposed to defeat the counter-revolution if several of the biggest cities under Soviet control were threatened by famine. If this catastrophic trend couldn't be stopped very soon, combat forces would have to be withdrawn from key front sectors which in turn was likely to result in the fall of Tzaritsyn, Kharkov, Novgorod and possibly even Petrograd.
Stalin was ready to dismiss the critique. His men could always live of the land, confiscate kulak property and surely the pro-communist population would be happy to “donate” supplies as well. But at this point Stalin's dream-castles were rudely torn done when Trotzky innocently asked: “Comrade Stalin, didn't you report months ago that your front had been cleared of all kulaks?” Even Lenin sided with Trotzky and dryly added that the countryside wouldn't be able to provide much food either since famine was ravaging most of the land.
At last, the Politburo settle upon a decision: Something had to be done about the supply situation – and soon! If only someone had known what ...
Supplies had been shuttled to the front for months, but all it achieved was to drain the depots in the hinterland. Tactical retreats would only decrease the territory contributing towards feeding the Red Army. Building more depots would take time since there weren't many supply trains to spare.[3] At least, it was agreed that as soon as more money could be raised the focus of recruitment would be shifted towards increasing the logistical capacities of the Red Army. Unfortunately, it would be months before these change would become effective. Until then the Red Army would have to scrape by somehow.
Later the members of the Politburo wondered how a meeting that had started with so much confidence had ended with everyone worried. But at least there was still the hope of Kolchak's imminent doom. Surely it would end the civil war?
The next day, Lenin sat alone at his desk in the Kremlin. The catastrophic supply situation was keeping him busy. New directives against hoarders, idlers and bourgeois moneybags had to be signed. Iron Felix would have a busy New Year …
His work was interrupted when a short telegram was delivered. It originated from Semyon Budyenny, the commander of the Western front:
“Polish vanguard has crossed the boarder in force STOP 200.000 more Poles to follow STOP No troops available to halt them STOP Require reinforcements STOP”
Lenin's face grew pale. How was he supposed to send more troops to the Western front when the supply network was already strained to its breaking point? On the verge of victory over the White counter-revolution, Poland had stabbed Soviet Russia in its back!
On January 1st 1920, more bad news arrived. This time, it came from the East. A Bolshevik spy in Kolchak's bureaucracy sent a troubling report: A day earlier Kolchak's state was in utter dissolution. Ministers were plundering the treasury. Noble ladies, general's wives and whores fought over tickets on one of the few trains leaving towards Vladivostok. Kolchak himself was said to have reserved an entire train for his personal belongings. But as soon as the news of Poland's entry into the war arrived, the mood had miraculously shifted. Generals returned to the front, bureaucrats to their desks and soldiers to their units. Newly raised units marched confidently to the trains that would bring them to the front rather than evacuate dignitaries. A week earlier Kolchak's recruits would have had to be forced at gunpoint! Now the admiral's regime had caught a second wind. It would fight on for a long time.
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Author's Notes:
Obviously, I have some explaining to do. In the last turn of 1919 four events happened. Three of them were responsible for leaving me in a pretty bad mood:
1. A
supply crisis that engulfed most of the North, West and South of Russia:
This had been coming for a while but towards the end of 1919, it reached a critical level. Only the Eastern front and the cities in the very centre of Bolshevik territory (Moscow, Tula, Nizhny Novgorod) had still well-filled depots.
It is fairly common to trigger a global supply crisis with the Reds if one recruits aggressively. I have seen it happen as early as the winter of 1918/19. Especially Southern Russia tends to be a supply wasteland in Great Campaign games. The massive increase of supply production that resulted from the depot upgrades at Tzaritsyn and Kharkov helpd me avoid such an early crisis. Even more important was that I managed to keep the cities along the Volga. If the Siberians take Simbirsk, Kazan and Penza, the Red forces on the Eastern front have to be supplied from Moscow as well which will strain its capacities beyond the breaking point since it has to transfer supplies south and east at the same time. But by the winter of 1919/1920 what I had dreaded hit in full force. Until then supply issues had been limited to the Kharkov area. But now they were now striking at Tzaritsyn and the entire Northern front as well. Even the depots at Voronezh and Kursk were almost empty and it was only a matter of turns until Moscow, Tula and Orel would share the same fate …
I have never seen supply troubles at Petrograd before this game. This was the one depot I had deemed inexhaustible. The supply crisis on the Northern front was a very nasty and unexpected surprise.
Obviously, I am to blame for this mess. I always try to recruit as aggressively as possible. With the Reds and Siberians this can easily end in a global supply crisis. But the Reds really have no choice. It's literally “recruit or die”!
2.
Poland entered the war:
Actually, that should not have happened in late December 1919. The event can trigger in January 1920 at the earliest. A bit weird, but I won't complain – it was just one turn.
The Polish army is quite the beast: it can throw approximately 4.000 pw worth of troops into battle – they will be under the direct control of the Siberian player. Polish generals are pretty good as well; Pilsudski in particular is excellent. But Polish troops suffer from one severe constraint: They are limited to fighting in Belarus, the Ukraine and Lithuania. But that is bad enough. Soviet Russia had already lost Minsk to Poland via event (there are two events that simulate Poland occupying territory in Belarus during 1919). In Gomel, Kharkov and Chernigov, there were three more provincal capitals vulnerable to Polish attacks. But any further loss of territory would only decrease my territorial base which would make the supply crisis even worse.
Last but not least, the Reds will lose 1 point of NM each turn as long as the Polish hold Minsk (luckily Kiev is in Southern White hands, if the Polish could conquer it the same penalty would apply). My comfortable lead in NM will now steadily melt away unless I manage to win more battles.
3. Poland's entry into the war
boosted Siberian NM:
But the nastiest surprise may have been that Siberian NM suddenly increased by 58 points from late December to early January! How did that happen?
The event that brings Poland into the war also unlocks all Polish territory including a handful of objective cities. In game terms, this works as if the Siberian had conquered these cities. They thus gain NM for each of these objectives. Especially Warsaw is worth a lot! In total this gives the Siberians 60 points of NM! In theory, this is balanced by a NM penalty that the same event includes (-59 points). But unfortunately, the NM penalty is subtracted before the game unlocks the Polish objectives. Usually that doesn't matter but in this case, Siberian NM was already down to 2 points. It didn't matter that the game subtracted 59 points from that since NM can't drop below 0 points. But then it immediately shot up to 60 points because of all the territory the Siberians had just “conquered”.
Nice bug, eh? But again I won't complain since Durk and Ian each got a little bug of their own that screwed with them. There is a bug (fixed now) that spawns a few Polish troops as hostiles. Durk thus had to crush a few of his own tank batallions and the garrison of Danzig. Let's just call it a Polish civil war.
1: Battle of Buinsk, Grichin-Almazov's army is destroyed.
2: Volunteers recognize the independence of Finland as well as the Baltic and Caucasian states.
3: Balts enter the war
4: Battles of Aralsk and Aktjubinsk. This should have been enough to bring Siberian NM from 2 points to 0, but Durk managed to get some NM back by defeating Green rebels.
5: Poland enters the war and Kolchak's rabble regains its fighting spirit.
4.
Denikin resigned and
Wrangel assumed command:
The fourth event that hit us was one I watched with mixed feelings. Denikin's offensives in 1919 hadn't yielded any significant territorial gains. And Southern White NM had suffered severely in the process.
Historically, something similar happened, the Southern White launched a massive offensive in 1919 and advanced far north. They were only stopped when their stretched supply lines came under attack from Anarchists and Red cavalry. This left their frontline units short of supplies at a critical moment and the Volunteer Army was repulsed at Orel in October 1919. After that defeat, White forces were in constant retreat. Their heartland, Rostov and the Kuban, were lost early in 1920 and the last remnants of their forces had to be evacuated to the Crimea. The evacuation proved disastrous - one third of the men and all heavy equipment were left behind. After this fiasco Denikin stepped down and Wrangel became the new commander of the remnants of the Volunteer Army.
The game tries to simulate this: if Southern White NM is lower than 70 points, it will remove Denikin and elevate Wrangel to a four star general (this event was bugged as well (at first Ian ended up with neither Denikin nor Wrangel, but we were able to spawn Wrangel with an event of our own the next turn) in the latest version of RUS, lodilefty, the master of bug-squashing, has fixed this issue).
For my part, I was rather elated to be rid of Denikin. On the other hand, Wrangel's promotion was very bad news. Until that point he had been a lowly one star general in our game. Now he would soon be in charge of all White forces concentrated around Kharkov. And that was a lot worse than having to deal with Denikin!
5.
Failure to finish the Siberians off prior to 1920:
You will notice on the chart above that Siberian NM was at 2 points for 4 turns! Obviously this raises the question why I failed to finish them off before Poland's intervention ruined my chances at a quick vcitory. There were two reasons for this:
- With only a few points of NM missing, I didn't want to take stupid risks or run into a trap; both of which might have allowed Durk to recover NM. Instead I opted for smaller strikes with high success chances. And there was indeed a turn where I robbed the last two points of NM from Durk - but unfortunately, he immediately made up for the loss by beating some Greens.
- Besides, big operations weren't really possible at the time. The last major Siberian field army was concentrated in an excellent defensive position at Ufa while half my army was blocked on the wrong side of the Volga. Bad weather and lousy generals did the rest.
In essence, Durk's survival was thus just as much the result of him playing smart defence as it was of me acting too cautious. Still in retrospect, I really wasted an opportunity late in 1919.
6.
Need for a new strategy:
In the big picture this wholesome mess left me with the challenge to readjust my war strategy. The only front where the Red Army had an overwhelming superiority was the East; in the South both sides were evenly matched - the same held true in the North. In the West, the Reds were badly outnumbered by the Poles but luckily this new enemy wouldn't be able to move beyond Belarus and the Ukraine. Now I had to make a choice:
- continue to push the Siberians hard and try to reduce their 60 points of NM to nothing. It would take time and ahead lay a series of excellent defensive positions: Ufa, the Ural mountains, several river lines in Siberia.
- focus on the Southern White who were suddenly much closer to defeat. Unfortunately, their army was almost as big as the Red Army and in good shape. At the same time, Red supplies in this sector were already extremely strained, sending substantial reinforcements would only deteriorate the situation.
- switch to defensive on all fronts and hope to wear the enemy down. But this would require a willingness of my enemies to attack that was doubtful.
- find a rabbit in my hat and pull it out.
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[1] Bill Clinton's campaign strategist for the 1992 presidential elections. The precise quote is: “The economy, stupid”.
[2] The full name was “Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union”.
[3] I had seen this crisis coming for some time and started to slowly increase the number of supply trains – but money is in short supply for the Reds and needed for a lot of things. In consequence, only few depots had been build since the start of the war. And only two of them were on the critical Southern front: the one at Tzaritsyn had been upgraded to level 4 (it starts at level 1) and a new depot had been built at Kharkov which was then increased to level 3.
