Thx! I will surely need it, but fortunately not yet
Milestone no. 3: readiness for war with China. Deadline set: till 1865-12-31
A. Nature of the goal
The goal is a pretty obvious one, but on the other hand it’s difficult to say whether one is ready or not, unless you actually try and succeed. So even though I love fantasy stories and I remember having read once in one of Terry Pretchet’s books (Guards, Guards, I believe) a nice way of getting prepared for 1-in-a-million probability case, which reportedly always happens, I prefer an old-fashioned doing whatever possible to bring the odds closer. Such being the case I will assume that the day I declare the first war on China is the day that the readiness for the war has been accomplished, OK?
I plan to clear the odds in the following areas:
- diplomatic domination – singling out Chinese Empire is the key, as described earlier. The general plan is to keep on sphering all the countries and states of their domain, while keeping good relations with all the top8 countries, in particular the ones that shall try to improve their relations with China. If possible – I intend to clear Burma and Dai Nam and any other country, should Chinese Empire ally with anyone, earlier – if needed by peacing them out in a dedicated war. As for the top8 countries I don’t want anyone, and won’t ask anyone, to go for Chinese Empire with me, as I won’t be the leader of the negotiation pack. But I still like the thought of having allies here and there, as they are less likely to declare on me directly and shall discourage other countries from doing so. Of course – I will not obey any of the alliances when called for their wars – why shall I lose 0.07 badboy decrease per month without a sure return rate?;
- sea domination – to assure all blockade points possible. In order to dream of it I need at least 1 naval base in the region – this will limit my attrition costs and allow faster construction of war ships. I initially assume that some 8 wars ships would be needed + as many transport ships as land armies available;
- land army survival – I can’t even dream of beating the Chinese Empire down to 0, but I can and shall have at least 1 man standing to accept the final peace treaty. For the time being – let’s just assume that the sky is the limit – I will take to China all the armies I can gather.
B. Targeting manpower donors
Before actually taking any further steps, let’s analyze the badboy investment opportunities in 1845. Please note I’m not even considering annexations of any civilized countries nor taking off states of them – I don’t really need their pops, as their literacy rate is typically very low and will kill my research tempo.
To make it simpler I shall divide them into a few basic categories: annexation (cost of 22 max badboy), taking off colony from civilized (cost of 10 max badboy) and taking off state from uncivilized (cost of 5 max badboy). In order to keep things simple I shall not really focus on my ability to handle a particular job right now – just opportunities.
Annexation (top10 countries):
- Penjab – 2.8m (5 allies, including Persia, limited access) = 127/bb
- Hyderabad – 1.9m (puppet and ally of UK, no access) = 86/bb
- Dai Nam – 1.6m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 73/bb
- Ethiopia – 1.3m = 59/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 73/bb
- Beroda – 1.4m (puppet and ally of UK) = 64/bb
- Sokoto – 1.4m (2 wars needed with 27 max bb) = 52/bb, additionally allows 1 colony of 0.2m, so total upped to 59/bb
- Awadh – 1.2m (puppet and ally of UK, no access) = 55/bb
- Siam – 1.2m (allied with Johor and Atjeh) = 55/bb
- Burma – 0.9m (sphered by UK + allies) = 41/bb
- Persia – 1.6m (3 allies, including Penjab, 2 wars needed with 47 max bb) = 34/bb
Ps. Please note – Egipt – 2.3m (2 wars needed with 92 max bb) = 25/bb only (!)
Taking off colony from civilized (top10 states), only smaller countries considered:
- Dutch Java – 2.1m (5 allies, including Russia, Austria and Spain) = 210/bb
- Spanish Luzon – 0.56m (3 allies, including US and Holland) = 56/bb
- Dutch Jambi – 0.53m (5 allies, including Russia, Austria and Spain) = 53/bb
- Dutch Ambon – 0.34m (5 allies, including Russia, Austria and Spain) = 34/bb
- Spanish Visayas – 0.27m (3 allies, including US and Holland) = 27/bb
- Spanish Cuba – 0.24m (3 allies, including US and Holland) = 24/bb
- Portuguese Lourenzo Marques – 0.18m (allied with Spain) = 18/bb
- Dutch Bali – 0.17m (5 allies, including Russia, Austria and Spain) = 17/bb
- Portuguese Mozambique – 0.14m (allied with Spain) = 14/bb
- Spanish Mindanao – 0.13m (3 allies, including US and Holland) = 13/bb
Taking off state from uncivilized (top10 states), excluding capital provinces:
- Ethiopian Negele – 0.57m = 114/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 174/bb
- Sokotian Zaria – 0.59m = 118/bb, additionally allows 1 colony of 0.2m, so total upped to 158/bb
- Dai Nami Thanh Hoa – 0.59m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 118/bb
- Persian Tebriz – 0.45m (3 allies, including Penjab) = 90/bb
- Dai Nami Vien Long – 0.42m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 84/bb
- Ethiopian Werder – 0.31m = 62/bb, colonies not counted as already added to Ethiopian Negele
- Penjabi Srinagar – 0.31m (5 allies, including Persia, limited access) = 62/bb
- Hyderabadi Nagpur – 0.31m (puppet and ally of UK, no access) = 62/bb
- Birmanese Rangoon – 0.30m (sphered by UK + allies) = 60/bb
- Egiptian Chartum – 0.29m = 58/bb and Siamese Udon Thai – 0.29m = 58/bb
So a global top10 would be:
- Dutch Java – 2.1m (5 allies, including Russia, Austria and Spain) = 210/bb
- Ethiopian Negele – 0.57m = 114/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 174/bb
- Sokotian Zaria – 0.59m = 118/bb, additionally allows 1 colony of 0.2m, so total upped to 158/bb
- Penjab – 2.8m (5 allies, including Persia, limited access) = 127/bb
- Dai Nami Thanh Hoa – 0.59m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 118/bb
- Persian Tebriz – 0.45m (3 allies, including Penjab) = 90/bb
- Dai Nami Vien Long – 0.42m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 84/bb
- Dai Nam – 1.6m (allied with Chinese Empire, Burma and Camboda, their puppet) = 73/bb
- Ethiopia – 1.3m = 59/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 73/bb
- Beroda – 1.4m (puppet and ally of UK) = 64/bb
Well, with my 2 regulars and 2 locals I can’t even dream of scaring little girls in Holland or UK on a dark Halloween night, not to mention liberating any of their assets. Perso-Penjabi alliance also looks tight, furthermore the top populated provinces they have are deep inland, so I would need to either invest way more bb and grab the other small provinces or try to get military accesses – none of these options looks promising.
So I decide to focus on Ethiopia and Sokoto in the first place, while in case of Dai Nam I will wait, as any changes in their diplomatic relations will be only in my favor, and if nothing happens I will come back a bit stronger after previous wars.
C. Opportunity knocks on the door
To start with – I needed to tackle a few issues:
- get my real army from Krakow (now on Austrian coast) to Africa, possibly without much attrition to the transport ships;
- thus I need a naval base – Mombassa is the furthest up north, so it will suit the best – I just needed to collect funds;
- my bb is still rather high.
When I was just minding my own business 2 interesting things happened:
- I got a random CB on Portuguese Lourenzo Marques – a nice one and the return rate is infinity/bb
- before I actually decided whether to proceed with the invasion with all my troops Portugal declared on me for Krakowian Mozambique – still mad for Portuguese Sena, I presume.
This is nice, but a bit early – nice because Portugal came alone, without their Spanish ally, early because I’m still a military pariah.
Fortunately so was Portugal – my locals started taking over Lindi, Mozambique and LM provinces while Mendvi regiment got an assignment in Goa, Makau and Dili. Portugal tried to counter by sending a mighty 1 unit infantry to Mendvi, but my only regular slashed them on their way back from far east and the navy chased the transport ship down. They tried it once again a few months later, but with the same result.
In the next phase my locals took over Angolian provinces, while the regular was sent for Saint Thomas island. The navy did the rest by blocking Bissau and Cape Verde. As I had little chances off Portuguese coast I decided to pass and eventually got the peace treaty I deserved.
To be honest – I was so pleased with the development and I didn’t really want another war with Portugal out of nowhere to happen again that I forgot to press on breaks when I really should have. I claimed another colonial province (Portuguese Mozambique) and their state of Makau. The badboy was one bleeding wound. War started on 1845-10-24 by Portugal and finished on 1848-12-14.
Afterthought: while Portuguese Lourenzo Marques and Portuguese Mozambique were both on my list, I need to admit that I had quite a headache with Makau – it was a state, not a colony, so after taking over I will immediately loose my literacy level, thus my research speed will surely go down. On the other hand – there are only 5k men, so the influence will be minor, when compared to Krakow’s 100+. But if there are only 5k men my return rate is like 0.5/bb, so why bother?? And there was only 1 reason I decided to actually do it – immediate access to a province suitable for a naval base in the Far East. With Makau – I don’t need to rush for Dai Nam at least 3 years before the war with Chinese Empire and Dai Nam blockades will not cost me any attrition.
The other direct result of this war was that I go myself brand new allies – France, Belgium, Ottomans and Sicily. With French bases I was able to eventually fetch my home-sick artillery unit from Dubrovnik to Africa.
D. Back to business
So let’s not let this little Portuguese blip stop us from proceeding with the plan. In particular as I got the democracy shines event, which lowered my bb.
The first one goes Ethiopia – due to very high bb level I go for Ethiopian Negele only (0.57m = 114/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 174/bb), instead of annexation (1.3m = 59/bb, additionally allows 2 colonies of 0.3m, so total upped to 73/bb) or Ethiopian Werder (0.31m = 62/bb, colonies not counted as already added to Ethiopian Negele).
This is an interesting example on how to fight the uncivilized, so I will say a few more words on the military tactics. I differentiate 2 types of war goals:
- full annexation;
- taking over one or more states.
In the first case – you basically need to conquer the whole country and in the meantime demolish all their armies. The good idea is to annihilate the enemy armies whenever possible, so typically you should look for encirclement possibilities and than a nice quick blow right in the center. It doesn’t really matter where you start with the occupations – you just need to have all the provinces at the end.
In the letter one – you just need to reach a certain level of conquest, which transfers to warscore. As shown in some earlier examples – you don’t really need to fight the enemy. Warscore is built off land and naval battles, naval blockades and land occupations. Land battles can grant a huge 25% of points needed, but they are capped, so the rest needs to be filled by occupations. Normally I would always consider going for the capital province first as it pays the most and add as many provinces of the desired state as possible as they not only improve warscore reached, but also lower the warscore needed.
In case of Ethiopia you get a sure 0 points for naval stuff, as they have no coast, so you need to focus on the battles and land occupations. I doubt I have any chances with my 2+2 troops against the Ethiopian 13-15 local regiments, so I have no chances for the battle score domination. Thus I need to work on the land occupations. The top points are always granted for the capital province, so 1 of my regulars needs to seize it. The minor issue is that it’s protected by some 9 local units. The other one is sent to Bonga in Ethiopian Negele. One of the locals is sent to Bonga as well, while the other gets another task.
I’m sure everybody noticed that there is a ‘fear factor’ that the uncivilized nations tend to obey – eg. my 1 regular will never be attacked by Ethiopian locals – not even if they all gather together. Yet they will be most happy to haste for my locals. Thus I’m sending the other local to Harer. This is driving the Ethiopians crazy – they abandon their capital province and chicken run for Harer. I of course leave this province to the coastal Zeyla (uncivs will not enter uncolonized province, so I’m save) – this unit will soon go around through Djibouti and join the regular one in the capital.
Gonder, the capital, and Bonga are still not enough to have the Ethiopians play my game, so I need some outmaneuvering – I use my local from Bonga occupation to play hide and seek with the enemy. I get to their province of Aselia and whenever I see they are after me – I run for life to Goba, the uncolonized province to the south. In the meantime I go for Asosa, leaving Bonga to Ethiopian occupation (another army has something to do) and Debre Tabor with regulars and Axum with locals. Eventually Ethiopians give up. War started on 1850-06-15 and finished on 1851-03-14.
Once my 3 artilleries are ready in Negele I declare on Sokoto. I demand Sokotian Zaria (0.59m = 118/bb, additionally allows 1 colony of 0.2m, so total upped to 158/bb), but as I get almost 0 bb I also add up Sokotian Benin – a bit off the top10 list, but it opens the back door to Nigerian coast and the biggest colonial province of post 1870s type – Warri.
This war is pretty boring – I got my troops ready on the border of Sokoto province, the capital, where their whole army was stationed. Once it got annihilated I went for the capital + as many Zaria’s provinces as possible, later on also both Benin provinces. Before their new troops arrived, they sued for peace. War started on 1852-03-06 and finished on 1853-01-09.
In early 1850s I got an interesting opportunity – early in the game Madagascar got only sphered by France, not annexed, as it normally happens. In some weird flow of action they were out of the sphere in 1840s and France declared on them to have them back. The war last quite long without any results and eventually ended with a white peace. This is I guess mainly due to the fact that France was losing badly to Prussian alliance in consecutive wars, some of which they started themselves, fortunately not asking me to join their cause, and they eventually needed to leave both E-L and Franche Comte.
I couldn’t really let such an opportunity slip my hands – I declared for Madagascar Ampanihy (0.22m and a nice return rate of 44/bb). War started on 1853-09-12 and finished on 1854-03-08.
The same year Ottomans decided to free Aleppo. I thought it would be a nice chance to have the last top10 uncivilized state taken over and declared for Egiptian Chartum adding also Egiptian Damietta, as I will need the canal badly later in the game.
Again – not really much happened – I occupied the capital, all of Chartum’s and Damietta’s provinces. The Egiptian army wanted to prove me wrong, but eventually had to remain silent. War started on 1854-09-17 and finished on 1856-01-03.
In 1850s UK were fighting Siam in order to free Cambodia’s Udon Thai – a random event, I guess. Additionally in some way Dai Nam was no longer allied with Chinese Empire and another badboy lowering event happened to me. Such being the case I could go for Dai Nam – both Thanh Hoa and Vien Long.
As I declared and went for the capital the major uprising blew up throughout the country. It only speeded up the whole war – the Cambodian troops and major Dai Namese army were down south while I made myself comfortable in capital states provinces. The key battle was fought in Hue – I beached 2 small troops to both neighboring provinces and annihilated their whole army with the central blow using my all remaining artilleries. War started on 1856-07-08 and finished on 1857-08-24.
The last episode was played back where we started – I declared on Ethiopia, which was in complete mess fighting rebels, and liberated Ethiopian Werder. War started on 1857-10-02 and finished on 1858-02-26.
E. The final touch
As the deadline was nearing I was really hoping for the miracles such as:
- a free CB on Dutch Java and possibly Holland without allies;
- a free CB on Spanish Luzon and possibly Spain without allies;
- somebody else, preferably UK, declares on China and disarms them;
- uprising and a general havoc in Chinese Empire.
Needless to say that none happened and I had to handle it all myself.
In the last couple of years I kept on boosting my cash reserves instead of paying for useless education. Maybe a better idea could have been investing in soldiers, but I felt I could need cash to support a massive and potentially long war – so I will never know.
There is little to be said about navy – I got the first naval base in Mombassa and the other in Makau – this pretty much allows transportation between Africa and Asia without much attrition. Mombassa also serves well for the transit to Suez. The war ships were being built in Makau constantly and simply stayed there waiting till Dai Nam war. The transport ships were built as they were needed with the missing rest being built in the harbors of Thanh Hoa and Vien Long in early 1860s.
On the diplomatic level – the only country that was really interested in Chinese Empire itself was Russia – fortunately in early 1860s they got involved in the most ridiculous war of our time when Spain declared for Scandinavian Ghana. Russia and Holland backed Spain while Austria defended the newly reborn Vikings. I wasn’t really following the whole war, but Russia got a serious beating from Austrians, who occupied vast parts of Ukraine.
As for me – I kept on sphering Chinese domain states and countries as planned. The first to join Krakowian sphere was Yunnan. I also had horrible time fighting for Guangxi with US, but eventually thx to France trying to get it as well and blocking US a number of times I managed to be on top. The rest was easy – without any diplo-fights nor particular interest of any country – and followed step by step with the last, Japan, joining the sphere on 1862-10-08.
As I was already waiting with a CB – the same day the war against Chinese Empire began.
A quick comparison tells it all:
- population: Krakow – 5.7m versus Chinese Empire – 62.9m – 11x more;
- troops: Krakow – 20 units (18 artilleries on the coast of China and 2 locals which stayed in Africa) versus Chinese Empire – 455 units – 25x more (excluding my locals in Africa);
- ships: Krakow – 7 war ships + 23 transport ships versus Chinese Empire – 21 units – a clear advantage of Krakow.
F. Summary
Krakow’s position against the master plan:
- milestone 3, status: accomplished
- milestone 3, deadline: accomplished, ahead of time (1862-10-08)
- buffer/delay: buffer of 3 years, 1 months, 23 days – buffer has been vastly reduced, let’s hope the additional time taken pays off
- assets: population passed 5.7m, 18 normal and 2 local regiments on the pay roll, all Chinese domain states and countries sphered, France and Ottomans as allies
- issues: clergy level is way too low, I dream of more troops…
Next update: downsizing of Chinese Empire to annexable 4 states! Get ready for the buckets full of blood!