Feels like B to me in IN/Complete. Also seems like Reputation is after as well.
Impossible, Very Unlikely, Unlikely, Maybe, Likely, Very Likely
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Feels like B to me in IN/Complete. Also seems like Reputation is after as well.
Maybe and Likely are the two words I never want to see.
Maybe means "Very Unlikely" and Likely means "Unlikely" while Unlikely means "Likely".
Maybe means "Very Unlikely" and Likely means "Unlikely" while Unlikely means "Likely".
Exactly... (for IN and complete...)
I always went on unlikely and had good success...
Diplomatic bonuses help, as does a higher DIP rating.
Very noticeable concerning annex of a vassal, for instance.
As Austria with Hapsburg Dominance and a DIP rating of 7+ even very unlikely can happen with regularity.
For HT³ in the same situation, I didn't get a single failure in 30 years of anything likely or better.
I'd have to agree with AMAZING's assessment of the %ages...
Though officially the 60% posted by midget_roxx is probably closer to "accurate"...
T
The only term which has a definite meaning is Impossible, which means just that. There has never, to my knowledge, been an official statement from anyone at PI as to numerical ranges for any of the other probabilities.
-Pat
-Pat
i suppose you might be able to look up the associated values with some kind of hex editor. Or someone with alot of time could run a couple 1000 tests =)
I really believe it's A
A very easy way to check this (prove it) is to use a DIP 3 Monarch and check your odds. Then add 3 high starred ambassador to boost said DIP score close to 9 and see the differance in the odds. It's night and day.
funny, i thought exactly the opposite. Like someone said above, very likely gets frequently refused the first time in httt :'(
I generally start trying to diplo-annex/vassalize on unlikely, though it does take a couple/few tries - I'd guess around 25%?
If you have 25% to annex at first try,you have 43.75% chance to diploannex a country in two tries(25% + 75*0.25%=43.75%).20% or even less base chance is much more likely.
Impossible is not 0%, I gauge it at about 2.5% give or take about 2% in HttT.
Very Likely seems to be more like 85%. So logically in HttT the other possiblities fit somewhere between those two.
Very Likely seems to be more like 85%. So logically in HttT the other possiblities fit somewhere between those two.
With IN, I did the same. Many times it went first try. Some took two or three, and a few took five or six. Very few "never" took before I changed tactics to remedy the situation. The over riding factor for annexation always seemed to be BB/Infamy for me, the unlikely hardly seemed to make much difference.
And failing to expand a colony with 99% chance of success happened ALOT. Two and three in a row happened enough to be noticeable. I always thought that a bit silly my self...
T
There may be additional criteria that is overlooked here. I am playing a MP HTTT 4.1 game as Japan and have cored up Korea and Manchu. Wu has revolted and the Ming are -200 to both me and Wu (and pretty much everyone else). My relations with Wu are -170 as I took one of their provinces on a conquest mission CB. My ruler died and I was trying to feverishly to get some new RM's in place... to my suprise, when I checked Wu, it was very likely, and they accepted. MY new king had a DIP of 5, and I had no great men to boost this, my prestige was 40-something? MY trust with Wu was "...uphold our bargains". Perhaps the enemy of my enemy is my friend maxim applies here somehow? I was happy to get the RM as I have no intention of messing with Wu anytime soon, but for the life of me I could not understand how it was "very likely" on the RM.
I then panicked, thinking crap, they have probably have a high prestige and want the RM to claim my throne, but they have -30 and like I said, I have 40-ish. I then checked a few others that were adjacent to Ming I had poor relations with, and they too were very likely, and accepted. Assam, who has about 15 provinces was one such who agreed to the RM, and Da Viet, who has 2 provinces also married up. I checked the threat, and Wu feels threatened by me (so maybe they wanted the insurance policy of a -1 stab hot for me if I pull their card), but Assam and Da Viet do not feel threatened by me. My BB is/was in the high single digits. Maybe they were all courtiing me b/c I was the only one capable of standing up to Ming?
All in all 3 of 3 people who I had -170 or worse relations with all agreed to a RM under very likely phraseology. Any explanation would be useful!
I then panicked, thinking crap, they have probably have a high prestige and want the RM to claim my throne, but they have -30 and like I said, I have 40-ish. I then checked a few others that were adjacent to Ming I had poor relations with, and they too were very likely, and accepted. Assam, who has about 15 provinces was one such who agreed to the RM, and Da Viet, who has 2 provinces also married up. I checked the threat, and Wu feels threatened by me (so maybe they wanted the insurance policy of a -1 stab hot for me if I pull their card), but Assam and Da Viet do not feel threatened by me. My BB is/was in the high single digits. Maybe they were all courtiing me b/c I was the only one capable of standing up to Ming?
All in all 3 of 3 people who I had -170 or worse relations with all agreed to a RM under very likely phraseology. Any explanation would be useful!
Maybe = 10%
Unlikely = 75%
Likely = 50%
Very Unlikely = 5%
Very Likely = 66,6%
Impossible = 1%
Unlikely = 75%
Likely = 50%
Very Unlikely = 5%
Very Likely = 66,6%
Impossible = 1%
I just tried a diplo-vassalisation on 'Maybe' and after 10 times trying it still isn't happening. Maybe has been bad in other instances as well. I would say the oder of likeliness is:
Impossible
Maybe
Very Unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
It could also be that diplo-vassal and diplo-annex are hard by definition, so that a 'maybe' chance of ~50% on a hardcoded chance of (lets say) ~10% still means a crappy shot.
Impossible
Maybe
Very Unlikely
Unlikely
Likely
Very likely
It could also be that diplo-vassal and diplo-annex are hard by definition, so that a 'maybe' chance of ~50% on a hardcoded chance of (lets say) ~10% still means a crappy shot.
also in peace offers, "they wont accept this" means 0% "they will accept this" means 100% there should be something in between
The Ming government will use the poldermodel to establish whether they will accept to pay 25 ducats at a warscore of -82% or not, the chances are "Maybe", they will negotiate for 12 months, untill then you may not send another diplomat. ( Adds negotiator modifier to country +50 revolt risk )
Strange, maybe is usually working as 50% chance for diploannexation. I have even tried that multiple times (save-reload) and i got something around 50%. Though once or twice I remember that when my chances of diploannexing were maybe and I failed like 5 times in a row, I just got mad and reloaded for like 10 times, but never succeeded so I believe there might be a bug with diploannexation? U might have had the same germanos
There's definitely some variance even at the same text indicator. I don't think in all the time playing I've ever had a European country deny my military access request when it was at very likely, but with a fair amount of frequency when I'm running down the cost of Africa/asia for the first time I'll get 2 or 3 denies while still having very likely chance.
Does anybody knows what this means?
and I'm referring specificly tho the chances. Are that chances to GET the mission or SUCCEED chances?
I get that it means I cannot go to war to fullfill this mission.
Code:
vassalize_mission = {
type = neighbor_countries
allow = {
war = no
this = {
government = monarchy
is_subject = no
num_of_cities = 5
}
NOT = { num_of_cities = 3 }
government = monarchy
religion_group = THIS
marriage_with = THIS
is_subject = no
NOT = {
war_with = THIS
}
relation = { who = THIS value = 100 }
}
abort = {
OR = {
NOT = { num_of_cities = 1 } #exists wont work, as we dont know the tag.
war_with = THIS
and = {
is_subject = yes
not = { vassal_of = this }
}
}
}
success = {
vassal_of = THIS
}
chance = {
factor = 1
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
culture = THIS
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
religion = THIS
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
DIP = 6
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
DIP = 8
}
modifier = {
factor = 1.5
num_of_cities = 10
}
modifier = {
factor = 0.5
NOT = { DIP = 5 }
}
}
# The effect always has country scope (for the country that gets the mission)
effect = {
THIS = { badboy = -1 }and I'm referring specificly tho the chances. Are that chances to GET the mission or SUCCEED chances?
I get that it means I cannot go to war to fullfill this mission.
It used to be that you didn't get an indicator - I'm glad that now it's both mentioned, and consistent- a "maybe" option would just mean people keep spamming the same offer over and over until the AI accepts, might as well have it accept the first time then. (assuming circumstances don't change substantially)
chance to get the mission.