Impossible, Very Unlikely, Unlikely, Maybe, Likely, Very Likely

[Buladelu]

Also if you use mods you get some strange situations. F.e. in MM AI knows that it could be easily annexed if he agrees to have a royal marriage with you. So you ask him for it and see "Very Likely" status but he never agrees. Never. This evil AI just plays with you making you think that you've got 5 misses in a row and this time you'll get lucky.

 

[JMS424]

Because everything besides maybe gives a more or less predictable outcome. Yet maybe only pisses me off constantly. I usually have around 2 to 3 strategic partners, countries that I want to keep good relations with. I cannot count the times when my relationship with a country went from 150 to around 20 because I simply cant get a royal marriage on a maybe

I think it penalizes you without mentioning it if you fail once and try again. If I fail at colonization, at least half the time I fail on try #2 as well. Same thing with spies, royal marriages, etc.

 

[Xnaop]

I forgot about this old thread that I started. Since no one actually seemed to know the answer, I played a game and kept track of the results of everything that I attempted, along with its "likely", "unlikely", etc. status.

The results are here, in case anyone is interested.

Also, I have almost completed a second game while keeping track of the stats; I will publish the combined statistics from both games on this forum as well, when I finish the game. I am currently in 1770 or so.

 

[unmerged(225264)]

thanks for the hard work Xnaop!

 

[unmerged(225264)]

I've done some limited testing and found that in my corrent situation of trying to get diplo-vassal the diplomatic attributes of the ruler (King) have the following influence:

My King has Diplo of 8.
If rival has 1 or 2 chances are 'likely'
If rival has diplo 3 to 6 chances are 'maybe'
if rival has diplo 7 to 9 chances are 'unlikely'

at every 'setting' I tried once. I was succesful at 1 vs. 8, 3 vs. 8 and 7 vs. 8.

Couldn't be bothered to try more