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Werewolf CXXVIII: The Fox and the Werehound

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I can find nothing in the voting record of these people to show that they tried to kill any of the wolves exposed so far, or that any of the wolves exposed so far tried to kill them. Everyone else has at least 1 goodie point.

randakar
OY/(to be subbed/autolynched)
marty99/gigau v2
Seen
lurken/nautilu v2

If trying for a particular pack there are more options, but these are the ones who could easily be either pack.

Twist or stick?

vote Seen
 
For ease of analysis,
The following are the wolves we've killed.

IRA
Mr. G: Clean wolf
Rendap: 3rd leader Wolf

Commies
Trespoe: Clean Wolf
Jacob-Lundgren: Clean wolf.
Eternaly_Lost: Wolf with a Rival (Formerly Cursed)

So, we have an equal amount of starter wolves from both packs.
5 out of the 31 who died are wolves.
5 out of the 31 who died are goodies.
 
johho888 said:
According to JL standard form 1A-alpha GA protects mouthpiece first night, doc second night. This could just be a case of doc protection that failed. EDIT: or the protectors getting confused because reis called for doc protection for the first night?
Click to expand...

Interesting. This is the first time I've heard of this "JL standard".
Having one is a good idea though :)

johho888 said:
I'm pretty surprised the wolves went after the spokesperson tonight with both the protectors still alive and the JL probably already set up.
Click to expand...

For some reason they almost never hunt the spokesperson the day of the first outing. Which really is the best time for them to do it.
Tsk.

The Arch Mede said:
I can find nothing in the voting record of these people to show that they tried to kill any of the wolves exposed so far, or that any of the wolves exposed so far tried to kill them. Everyone else has at least 1 goodie point.

randakar
OY/(to be subbed/autolynched)
marty99/gigau v2
Seen
lurken/nautilu v2

If trying for a particular pack there are more options, but these are the ones who could easily be either pack.
Click to expand...

Very well. Let's put some pressure on people from this list, then.

Vote Seen

Sedracus said:
So, we have an equal amount of starter wolves from both packs.
5 out of the 31 who died are wolves.
5 out of the 31 who died are goodies.
Click to expand...

4 starting wolves found out of 31 players. Two packs so far. 1 in 3 baddie / goodie ratio for 2 packs means we'd be looking at 10 baddies, of which 6 are supposedly still alive.
With me so far?
Good.
Now is the time to start looking at the rules to see what this setup might look like.
Did this game have a priest listed in the rules?

edit: Nope. Good, my memory at least hasn't failed me there.
 
The Arch Mede said:
marty99/gigau v2
Click to expand...

Note that it was mostly because my predecessor went dark and failed to vote a few times. :p

There is something that puzzles me :
- during one of the first days, Jacob-Lundgren was set as highly suspicious. Another suspect is lynched, and then nobody cared to vote him anymore. He ends up being outed by Seer.
- on last day, Boris, Taii and to a lesser extent hdk were prime suspects. J-L is outed and lynched, and now we are starting with a whole new batch of suspects ? without really having any convincing data on the previous suspects. This looks odd especially right after discovering we had already done the same mistake just before.
 
Looking at AVN, none of the yellow wolves voted him on day 3, plus the three known yellow wolves all voted other candidates that day. The only wolf he has lynched was Mr. G, so that only clears hi mas an IRA, nor as a commie.

Vote AVN
 
Taiisatai64 said:
I think it's safe to say that after last night I have either been scanned by the Seer or the JL does not consider me a suspect.
Click to expand...
Maybe, different seers uses different strategies. Some scan low key players arguing that the ones that were run up / suspicious will be lynched anyway. Some seers scans the ones that got away to get maximize information from the votings. Some seers seems to scan randomly (but they probably just have a plan I don't see). In this game we seems to have a seer type II that do indeed scan suspicios players (we know he scanned trespoe, jacob and reis who all got run up earlier). So you might be right that you are scanned but I wouldn't go as far as saying it's a sure thing.

Kingepyon said:
The only thing I think is safe to say after last night is you're not a commie wolf. Unless you know something we don't, and in that case, please share.
Click to expand...
Why would that be?
 
Kingepyon said:
On day 4 before the outing, taii was supporting the lynch of j-L when the votes were close, and I've never known him to alibi lynch his allies. So I doubt he's a commie wolf.
Click to expand...
Looking at the votes after i posted I thought that was it. It was a bit early though and jacob was never in the lead IIRC. I wouldn't say that clears him from commieness just by the vote but it certainly does speak for him, especially if he usually never votes packmates (how do you know that BTW, do you keep a record of our ticks? :eek:).
 
johho888 said:
Looking at the votes after i posted I thought that was it. It was a bit early though and jacob was never in the lead IIRC. I wouldn't say that clears him from commieness just by the vote but it certainly does speak for him, especially if he usually never votes packmates (how do you know that BTW, do you keep a record of our ticks? :eek:).
Click to expand...

I do have a folder of old games where I collect the old coloured vote counts that I do. He's made the statement before, though, and I went back a bunch of games and checked to see if he did try to alibi vote. I couldn't find any.

Whenever someone makes a statement like that I go back and look, as vote counts are usually posted before the deadline, which makes them easy to find.
 
EUROO7 said:

aka common sense
Click to expand...

There could easily have been a 'standard' that dictates protection to happen precisely the other way around :p

gigau said:
There is something that puzzles me :
- during one of the first days, Jacob-Lundgren was set as highly suspicious. Another suspect is lynched, and then nobody cared to vote him anymore. He ends up being outed by Seer.
- on last day, Boris, Taii and to a lesser extent hdk were prime suspects. J-L is outed and lynched, and now we are starting with a whole new batch of suspects ? without really having any convincing data on the previous suspects. This looks odd especially right after discovering we had already done the same mistake just before.
Click to expand...

We have information on the people we've run up before. We don't have as much information on these others. In the later days of the game we need as much information as possible on the people who are still alive. Having people in there that have never cast any dangerous vote on a baddie nor have been voted by them can easily be detrimental to the village.
In fact, I reckon that it is :)

That being said, nothing should stop you from going after someone if you are convinced they are bad. Lynching the bad guys is the objective of the game, after all :)

Taiisatai64 said:
I think it's safe to say that after last night I have either been scanned by the Seer or the JL does not consider me a suspect.
Click to expand...

I disagree.
I think it's safe to say that we already have a good stack of voting record on you, but that's as far as it goes.

johho888 said:
Maybe, different seers uses different strategies. Some scan low key players arguing that the ones that were run up / suspicious will be lynched anyway. Some seers scans the ones that got away to get maximize information from the votings. Some seers seems to scan randomly (but they probably just have a plan I don't see). In this game we seems to have a seer type II that do indeed scan suspicios players (we know he scanned trespoe, jacob and reis who all got run up earlier).
Click to expand...

.. and really good seers change tack here now and then as well to maximise the chances of the JL surviving longer and them remaining unfound.
That being said, scanning suspicious people who've been run up before is a pretty valid strategy.
 
Kingepyon said:
I do have a folder of old games where I collect the old coloured vote counts that I do. He's made the statement before, though, and I went back a bunch of games and checked to see if he did try to alibi vote. I couldn't find any.

Whenever someone makes a statement like that I go back and look, as vote counts are usually posted before the deadline, which makes them easy to find.
Click to expand...

You give me the impression of the clingy type.
 
Taiisatai64 said:
Maybe I do, maybe I don't. Run me up alongside someone else, and maybe you'll find out ;)
Click to expand...

Saying this kind of stuff is not very wise, Taiisatai.
In fact, your coy and suggestive behaviour pretty much screams 'hunt me right now plx', to be entirely honest :p
 
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