Werewolf Lite CLXXXVI: Hailsham College

[AOK. 11]

edit: Some comments regarding my posts would be good. Thanks

I agree with almost all of it. One thing though:

Why the heck did the wolves take out Kaetje, of all people? It's not like she really was a threat.

Kae should punch you in the face for that.

 

[randakar]

:rofl:

Sleep deprivation kills

Seriously though - I'd like some answers on my questions.

I'd also like to hear how cleared people feel TT is. I've put him up there based on votes but I'm not sure it's watertight. If it isn't then my logic regarding Steed doesn't work either.

The thing is, AOK made a decent argument somewhere that Steed is likely a villager. So either my argument regarding thistle is flawed, or AOK is wrong. I'd like to hear other people's opinions here.

edit: @jonti
Be sure to go back and read my correction

Kae should punch you in the face for that.

Don't worry about it, she's more than capable of defending herself.
What I meant by that is that she's no veteran player like most of the village is. So in that sense she was less of a threat than others. This speaks volumes about motivation.

 

[AOK. 11]

I'd also like to hear how cleared people feel TT is. I've put him up there based on votes but I'm not sure it's watertight. If it isn't then my logic regarding Steed doesn't work either.

He is never cleared without a scan. There are a few people that never go on the cleared list without a scan. He is one of them.

I think your logic about Steed is flawed. I will post on it in a bit.

 

[randakar]

He is never cleared without a scan. There are a few people that never go on the cleared list without a scan. He is one of them.

I think your logic about Steed is flawed. I will post on it in a bit.

I'll put up a vote in the meantime:


Vote jamie550


At least he has more than 1 vote now ;-)

 

[jonti-h]

Sheep deprivation kills

Kinky

Seriously though - I'd like some answers on my questions.

I'd also like to hear how cleared people feel TT is.

He isn't.

edit: @jonti
Be sure to go back and read my correction

Damn crossposting.

Unvote Lemeard Vote Steed.

 

[jonti-h]

Actually, unvote Steed, Vote Jamie he still seems the best guy to be a wolf.

 

[AOK. 11]

The bastards at work...actually expect me to work and not play werewolf. I may or may not post a more detailed analysis before the deadline. Sorry guys.

Just to say, Thistle and Randy pretty much covered it and I would have largely repeated their assertions. I do disagree with Randy about Steed though.

Hopefully I can get all this stuff on my desk done and get back to more important things like Werewolf in time to get back before the deadline.

 

[Steed]

wait, doh. Logic failure.

STEED HAS TO BE A WOLF.

Im thinking serious Logic failure, infact a total blackhole has appeared from nowhere and swollowed that thinking cap in one!!

For one, my argument would be the fact i voted for EURO 2nd and kept it there all the time.. If we were packmates, then id certainly not bother voting EURO and putting him in the lead.
For two, id have unvoted and made some excuse to save EURO for possible plarity if i was a packmate..

I still have strong thoughts on AOK being a wolf, whatever arguments and alike there are towards not being. AOK stating he thinks im not, is a good way to hunt me tonight and say ''Hey, I tried to tell you he was good, now lets get the bad guys''

.
.
Off the record, i did like the post AOK and pissed myself at the pic.

 

[Lemeard]

This means: LEMEARD HAS TO BE A WOLF. Unless I have major flaws in my logic it cannot be otherwise.

Your face is flawed.

Vote Steed

 

[Lemeard]

Oh wait. Steed has zero votes?

Votecount?

 

[randakar]

Im thinking serious Logic failure, infact a total blackhole has appeared from nowhere and swollowed that thinking cap in one!!

For some reason I confused you and Lemeard. Sorry about that.
The "STEED HAS TO BE A WOLF" is sorta tongue-in-cheek.

For one, my argument would be the fact i voted for EURO 2nd and kept it there all the time.. If we were packmates, then id certainly not bother voting EURO and putting him in the lead.

Actually you were the first to vote him on day 3, I think. It's even in the wall of text somewhere.
(I'm digging through the thread to see if I can find Thistle's count and see if your claim matches up, though)

For two, id have unvoted and made some excuse to save EURO for possible plarity if i was a packmate..

Parity? Yesterday there was no chance at parity, the wolves needed a tie between villagers for that.

I still have strong thoughts on AOK being a wolf, whatever arguments and alike there are towards not being. AOK stating he thinks im not, is a good way to hunt me tonight and say ''Hey, I tried to tell you he was good, now lets get the bad guys''

It's definitely a possibility, but it would require a) Him being confident he could vote switch the village away from EURO on day 1, and b) him selling EURO out yesterday.

Anyway - the claim seems to hold. Steed is a bad lynch.

That moves the list to this:

Probable villagers:
Lord Strange
Jonti
Steed

Unsure:
Thistle
AOK
Slinky

Good lynches:
Jamie
Lemeard

The same logic applies.
Either slinky or lemeard is a wolf. And either AOK or jamie is a wolf.
So now I get the logical result that TT must be a wolf .. after which I wonder if I hadn't cleared TT and Lemeard of being packmates somehow. That needs some votecount digging though.

Logic is hard to apply here though - to be honest I still feel both steed and TT are likely villagers. That, in turn, would reduce my suspect list to 4 people - which means one of my two "not packmates" conclusions is wrong. :wacko:

Hmn.

Thistle, you've done "unlikely packmate" analysis before, right? Can you put one up for us?

 

[Thistletooth]

TT...Strange,
Lemmy...TT,
AOK (2)...Steed, Jamie,
Jamie (3)...AOK, randy, jonti,
Steed...Lemmy

No votes: Slinky

For the record, there are nine players remaining, not ten.

Thistle, you've done "unlikely packmate" analysis before, right? Can you put one up for us?

Ugh, that takes a while to put together.

 

[randakar]

For the record, there are nine players remaining, not ten.

Noted

Ugh, that takes a while to put together

Please?

Pretty please with sugar on top?

(edit: At this point I'm tempted to call for a 4-way tie on AOK, Jamie, Slinky, and Lemeard. We're pretty much guaranteed to catch two wolves that way )
(edit2: .. if it wasn't for the inevitable wolf vote snipe, that is)

 

[Thistletooth]

Noted



Please?

Pretty please with sugar on top?

(edit: At this point I'm tempted to call for a 4-way tie on AOK, Jamie, Slinky, and Lemeard. We're pretty much guaranteed to catch two wolves that way )
(edit2: .. if it wasn't for the inevitable wolf vote snipe, that is)

That would entail going through every post in the thread to look not only for votes, but for reasons behind votes. It would probably take every minute up to the deadline. When I use them, I start doing it from the beginning, not in the fourth round. I'll put together a rushed approximation of a pack possibilities layout, but it would only be based on the votes themselves, and thus not terribly official.

 

[Slinky]

I think Lord Strange is a really unlikely wolf considering his votes on EUROO7. jonti-h also has several votes on EUROO7, so I don't think him a good lynch either. After my little spam mad session with marty99/randakar I am also convinced he is a villager.

Thistletooth also voted EUROO7 into a dangerous position. I also happen to largely agree with his suspects.

About steed I get no baddie vibes.

For me that leaves: jacob-Lundgren/Jamie550 - voted EUROO7 just before deadline when it was quite clear he was going to get lynched anyway
AOK.11 - also voted EUROO7 several times, but I don't think him cleared because his votes have a tendency to not 'stick'. Also his move to vote Lord_D when Lemeard was in the lead is a bit fishy. If AOK.11 is a wolf than Lemeard is one too.
Lemeard - what a coincidence, he just happens to be the other person I haven't mentioned yet and he goes well with AOK.11 another person on my shortlist of baddies

For me the pack is Jamie550, Lemeard and AOK.11
with Steed the most likely wolf if one of those is not a baddie

Vote AOK.11

 

[AOK. 11]

For me the pack is Jamie550, Lemeard and AOK.11
with Steed the most likely wolf if one of those is not a baddie

Absolutely, Slinky. Me and Jamie go perfectly together.

In all seriousness, Jamie, you are a disgrace to Jacob's form, even if you are somehow innocent. You must die. Now. Right now. Shoot him and throw him in the ditch.

That sounds like packmates to me.

That would entail going through every post in the thread to look not only for votes, but for reasons behind votes. It would probably take every minute up to the deadline. When I use them, I start doing it from the beginning, not in the fourth round. I'll put together a rushed approximation of a pack possibilities layout, but it would only be based on the votes themselves, and thus not terribly official.

I tried. That is what I was complaining about. I will post it on the morrow if I survive. I would not bother if I were you.

 

[AOK. 11]

Just in case you guys did not notice, Lemmy is going to finish me off with a switch before the deadline:


AOK (3)...Steed, Jamie, Slinky
Jamie (3)...AOK, randy, jonti,
Steed...Lemmy
TT...Strange,
Lemmy...TT,

Vote Jamie you idiots.

 

[Thistletooth]

Based only on votes, and not for arguments or for reasons behind votes:

Preliminary Pack Possibilities

=/= - does not go with
() - less certain

marty/randy =/=
jonti =/= Euro, Strange,
Slinky =/= (Lemmy),
Lundgren/Jamie =/= ((Strange))
Lemmy =/= (Slinky),
Strange =/= Euro, jonti, ((Jamie)),
Steed =/= (Euro),
TT =/= Euro,
AOK =/= (Euro),

Euro =/= jonti, (AOK), Strange, (Steed), TT,

Looking at the remaining possible packmates from a Euro-centric standpoint:

Most likely

1. Lemmy
2. Lundgren/Jamie
3. marty/randy
4. Slinky

(Switched randy and Slinky around to reflect The Lemeard Connection.)

Somewhat unlikely

5. AOK
6. Steed

Most unlikely

7. TT
8. jonti
9. Strange

But that's only looking at this dispassionately and by only following the "numbers". Gut instincts, behavioral observations, personal knowledge of/experiences with others don't figure into this very strongly.

 

[AOK. 11]

Curious that three of your most likely are voting in lockstep against me, isn't it? (Or rather, will be when Lem switches)

Can you please help me out here TT? Vote Jamie.

 

[Lemeard]

Curious that three of your most likely are voting in lockstep against me, isn't it? (Or rather, will be when Lem switches)

Can you please help me out here TT? Vote Jamie.

I wouldn't break a TIE