Werewolf Lite CDXLIII - The Paradox Werewolf Summer Camping Trip

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Well, his recent post certainly erases the "wolf leaving doors open" theory: he actually was conclusive, as much as one can be conclusive at the moment.

Not entirely, it could still be a reaction to your suspicion that makes him talk more.
Honestly though I should probably be looking for some other place to put my vote. For now.
Though I'm a bit at a loss as to *where*..

The wagon on me could very well have lived on to EoD if Dedonus hadn't stopped it. It was too early to say it would be stopped by someone else, and I actually think it wouldn't have been stopped efficiently enough because it'd have been too little and too late.

If he hadn't I would have said *something*, at least. So I'm pretty sure he wasn't the only one to notice.
 
You aren't exactly cleared either. You've won too many Lites and are too good at hiding for me to not keep you high on my list of question marks I need more information on ;-)
tbh my health is suffering a bit and I only manage to have 2 hours tops at a pc this week. im full of painkillers ATM so my brain is fuzzy

also I would love to make sopme analysis atm bit im just not capable to do it :( If I'm still alive (both in RL and the game) and feel better in 2 days I will (promise) do my best to analyze the crap out of this lite game ;)
 
VOTE Ironhide

Before I forget to vote

Unofficial Vote Count from the "Official" Vote Counter

Emperor Ike: 3
Culann [32]
randakar [culann 35 > 47]
Panzerorps [49]

Ironhide: 2
Dedonus [30]
Emperor Ike [38]

Yvanoff: 2
Wagon [31]
Ironhide [33]

Wagonlitz: 2
MarshmallowMarshall [34]
Yvanoff [ike 37 > 48]

CaptainGrimlock: 1
aedan [40]

aedan: 1
the_hdk [42]

PanzerCorps: 1
Arkasas [43]

Randakar: 1
CaptainGrimlock [46]

Culann: 0

Not Voted: 3
@Caillean
@Chieron
@alynkio
Mentioned this briefly before. Ike briefly had 3 votes, but this was only before Yvanoff switched off him in 48. Dedonus (who is an excellent vote counter generally and an asset to the WW community) accidentally recorded Panzer's vote for IH as being for Ike. Too many 'I' names.

2. Caillean -- On day 1, brought Yvanoff the villager to 4 votes, effectively removing Ike from contention. On day 2, initiated the Marshmallow rally, to the benefit of Grimlock. Your opinion of Caillean depends on how you find Grimlock and Caillean.
6. Arkasas -- Was voted by Culann day 2. Has otherwise been quiet. Not impossible this was some weird alibi shenanigan, but seems less than likely.
7. Chieron -- Cast a vote for IH day 1, which worked to the benefit of Ike, and lazily glommed onto the MM bandwagon day 2 causing me to vote him... ...but then turned around and cast a key vote for Culann the wolf. Not impossible this was an alibi vote, but think there are better places to look for the lycanthropically inclined.
8. aedan777 -- Cast a standard Aedan vote day 1 on Arky, then argued for both Randy and Grimlock day 2, voting Randy for not breaking the Yvanoff-Ironhide TIE. Aedan is notoriously difficult to pin down, so I don't know how useful speculation is here. Should never be considered above suspicion, but not really my top choice.
9. Ironhide G1 -- Yeah, that day 2 Culann vote came at a pretty clearing time. Would be quite surprised if he's evil.
10. Captain Grimlock -- Had a relatively late throwaway vote day 1 against Randy, leading to him getting a bit of attention yesterday. Attention in itself isn't clearing though, as the rapid vote-switch onto our local Marshmallow was widely decried as being somewhat suspect. Grimlock himself parked his vote on MM, staying mum during the switch to Culann.
11. Dedonus -- Prevented a Yvanoff/Ironhide TIE day 1 that would most likely have killed 2 villagers, then decried the switch to MM, recommending Panzer the villager as an alternative. I agree that Dedonus has demonstrated general concern for the welfare of the village, but don't know if I'd go all the way to calling him clear -- I've definitely broken TIEs and called for voteswitches as a wolf. Still, plenty of better candidates.
12. the_hdk -- Cast a throwaway against Wagon day 1, then was part of the anti-Grimlock train yesterday. Is usually quiet and rarely explains his votes much, but doesn't mean he's not paying attention, and gets mislynched a bunch. Is voting me now for throwaways. Basically a blank slate so far this game. My general policy is to give him the general benefit of the doubt... ...until all the people sketchier than him are dead.
13. Emperor Ike as Jason from that one movie -- Ike gets mislynched a LOT. Easy scapegoat. Should view attacks against him with some skepticism. Still... he fell out of contention in favor of 2 villagers day 1, and was, as Marshmallow pointed out, by far the sketchiest of the Marshmallow voters. Now he's voting Deodnus because Dedonus voted Panzer and now Panzer's hunted? Why would wolves hunt someone they think they can have lynched?
15. Marshmallow Marshall as The Marshmallow Defender -- Loud persecutor of Yvanoff the Villager day 1 for making a TIE with almost 2 hours until deadline. Followed Aedan's reasoning against Grimlock... ...and picked up a whole bunch of votes for loudly persecuting Yvanoff the villager. Too many votes too fast. I had suspected an Ike-Marshmallow connection, but this is heavily undermined by Marshy's anti-Ike vote today. Has been very active and clear about where he stands, and is generally less sketchy than the people that voted him.
16. Randakar -- One never really knows with Randy. Still, he's active and nice to have around, so the bar of proof for a case should be pretty high imo.

As for me, I thought Chieron was the sketchiest of the MM banwagoneers (Ike always being sketch), and proposed him as an alternative vote-switch target, basically posting at the same second as Panzer. Then I had to go to work. No one took me up on it. A throwaway by definition I suppose, but not really a throwaway in spirit. Would I look better if I had voted Grimlock or MM?

Suppose I should vote too. I agree heartily with Aedan and Marshmallow about the sketchiness of Emperor Ike... ...but also know that Ike gets mislynched so I feel some caution may be warranted. Grimlock got a bunch of attention yesterday... but him getting attention is what triggered the MM sketch bandwagon. Sometimes candidates get a lot of votes because they're good candidates and not for nefarious reasons. Don't know if I really want to run him up again...

Caillean helped keep Ike out of the lead with her day 1 Yvanoff vote, and was the one who began the anti-MM (and pro-Grimlock) push yesterday. And she hasn't had any attention yet. Lynching her could provide good intel about Ike and Grimlock.


VOTE CAILLEAN
 
tbh my health is suffering a bit and I only manage to have 2 hours tops at a pc this week. im full of painkillers ATM so my brain is fuzzy

Damn. That sucks. Take care of yourselves then.

also I would love to make sopme analysis atm bit im just not capable to do it :( If I'm still alive (both in RL and the game) and feel better in 2 days I will (promise) do my best to analyze the crap out of this lite game ;)

Not sure if I've seen you do analysis before.

Nice wall of text Alynkio. Flattered that you think me hard to read though, I always think I am obvious as heck as a baddie ;-)

Not sure I agree with the Arkasas, HDK, or Aedan bits. I'd need to review the day 2 vote Culann made on Arkasas to make up my mind on him. As for the other two, very few people seem inclined to lynch them which in turn is exactly what makes them suspicious to me.

As for that Ironhide vote on day 1 - That Culan vote on him was dangerous enough imho to give Ike the benefit of the doubt for now. We've got better candidates.
 
1st Day 3 Votecount
Day 3 Votecount: 2h 30min to deadline

Emperor Ike: 3
Ironhide G1 [139]
Marshmallow Marshall [142]
aedan [153]

aedan: 1
randakar [149]

alynkio: 1
the_hdk [155]

Dedonus: 1
Emperor Ike [156]

Caillean: 1
alynkio [163]

Not Voted: 5
@Arkasas
@Caillean
@CaptainGrimlock
@Chieron
@Dedonus
 
I’m willing to see if Caillean is a wolf.

Vote Caillean
 
Well, it's nice to know my persecutor was a wolf. Always makes you feel better when you're getting run up due to lupine tricks rather than village moronitude.

I think Ike is pretty sketchy, but I would also like to ensure other candidates are considered. Dedonus could be evil, but I do not get that feeling from him. Ditto alynkio. If randy doesn't really want to vote aedan at this point, then there's no point in putting mine on him, though of course aedan is always shady. So that leaves Caillean among those with votes already; I feel okay about this.

vote Caillean
 
Unvoted Aedan
Vote the_hdk


Not sure I like either frontrunner candidate, though I admit to having a slight bias where Caillean is concerned.
Ike though I think is just a really good scapegoat.
 
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From the throwaway voters, Aedan feels more suspicious to me. And with the weak case on Ike (especially if he gets wrongfully lynched a lot), Aedan again pops out as being the 3rd voter on that one.

Vote Aedan
 
I'm going to place my vote on Caillean. I'm following my logic from yesterday, that there's probably a wolf among the Yvanoff voters. Ironhide looks pretty unlikely a baddie, since he was the killing vote on Culann (although could be a sellout, but that would be pretty risky, as the seer is still alive, making alibi votes pretty useless). Right now, I'm reading MM as a villager. My mind could change in the future, but this is my opinion for now. So that leaves Caillean.

Caillean was also involved with the run-up on MM, which felt suspicious to me at the time (and with the vote switch to Culann bagged us a wolf, I feel my read here was correct). I would like to test this case today.

vote Caillean
 
Unofficial Vote Count from the "Official" Vote Counter

Caillean: 4
alynkio [163]
CaptainGrimlock [166]
arkasas [167]
Dedonus [170]

Emperor Ike: 3
Ironhide G1 [139]
Marshmallow Marshall [142]
aedan [153]

the_hdk: 1

randakar [aedan 149 > 168]

alynkio: 1

the_hdk [155]

Dedonus: 1

Emperor Ike [156]

Aedan: 1

Caillean [169]

Not Voted: 1

@Chieron
 
Hm.
Sorry about appearing so late again, long days at work right now.

Today, I'm going with
VOTE Ike

I might be a bit tie-happy in this game, but one could assume the early vote by Culann to be an alibi vote (early vote on day 1). And he was the third on MM yesterday.
That said, Caillean was run up fast today, which is a bit odd as well.
 
After a careful consideration after Dedonus vote mother and I have decided that ties are not nice.

UNVOTE DEDONUS
VOTE Caillean
 
unvote caillean
vote alynkio
 
Final Day 3 Votecount
Final Day 3 Votecount

Caillean: 4
alynkio [163]
CaptainGrimlock [166]
arkasas [167]
Emperor Ike [156 Dedo -> 173]

Emperor Ike: 4
Ironhide G1 [139]
Marshmallow Marshall [142]
aedan [153]
Chieron [172]

alynkio: 2
the_hdk [155]
Dedonus [170 Caillean -> 174]

the_hdk: 1
randakar [149 aedan -> 168]

Aedan: 1
Caillean [169]

Not Voted: 0
 
Stupid feeling, when you know in your gut you're right but can't *really* defend the position.
 
Oh God, we lost a villager… and also a villager… and another villager!

:eek:
 
  • 2Haha
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